Another aircraft order from CAL

[Andy]

You are right... When I went to Chautauqua I was told I'd upgrade in 2 years. Turns out it was a year and 11 months.

Career expectations ARE real and not that financial positions can't change. But... It is unfair for a pilot at UAL to benefit from CAL's current $$ position, fleet renewal, and good management. You cannot argue against that.

I say that with all due respect to the UAL pilots. If they had a better system right now I'd just be happy to be getting under their umbrella. Not saying it should be a staple or anything but there should be some accomadation made.

My piece,

Oldguy

Oldguy, UAL's balance sheet is at least as solid as CAL's. In 2007, UAL paid off $2.7 Billion in debt. At the end of Q4, UAL had $4.4Billion cash on hand; $3.6 Billion unrestricted. I don't know where people come up with the idea that UAL's balance sheet is not solid; it is not ground in reality. UAL is currently a cash cow; fortunately, management's been smart enough to use that money for aircraft interior upgrades, paying down debt, and building up large on hand cash reserves.
UAL is seeing RASM premiums over competition. Granted, UAL's CASM is high, but I've found through the years that management can play with cost numbers to make things look better or worse than reality.
UAL has a clean balance sheet and is decreasing debtloads, exactly what you want to see going into an economic downturn. I don't know if you've priced out the credit markets lately, but now is NOT a good time to be taking on additional debt. The credit markets are getting totally whacked and double digit loan rates are becoming the norm. I don't know how CAL plans to finance all of those orders, but if they plan on a buy/leaseback arrangement, they could be in for a rude awakening. CAL's operations are not throwing off enough cash to pay for the new equipment, so financing is a requirement.
I do not consider taking on additional debt and ordering aircraft in the current environment to be 'smart' management.

You can't reliably forecast CAL's upgrade expectations at this time; CAL has a TON of training float. Once the vacancy bids to the left seat slow, the training float will vanish. With the amount of hiring that has already occurred, a current newhire would be foolish to plan on less than 5 years in the right seat. And even that's optimistic.

As for seniority integration, it won't be stapling or date of hire; relative seniority is the likely outcome. All of the negative comments about the other carrier will do nothing to change that.

 

[Cpt Oveur]

Well, there are quite a few spring '05 new hires who are sitting left seat in EWR right now.

 

[XShuttle]

FWIW, in the AAA/AWA case, Nicolau specifically gave "no weight" to pre-merger orders or options and used a zero growth basis for the integration.

 

[Andy]

Well, there are quite a few spring '05 new hires who are sitting left seat in EWR right now.

When they were hired in spring 05, what was their upgrade expectation?
When I was hired at United in 2000, there were guys getting to the left seat in less than 24 months. But there were a 2000 numbers between me and them; 20% of the company.
How many numbers are between the newest hire on property and the spring 05 hires?

Hasn't CAL had some left seat bids get cancelled since the age change?

Finally, if we're all lucky, no merger will take place. In which case, all of this will have riled up some people for no reason whatsoever. It's going to go by relative seniority, give or take a little bit with minimal fences. And everyone involved will complain for the rest of their careers about how they got screwed. Fun stuff.

 

[Furloughed80]

The only reason you hear pilots talk of career expectations is because it is specifically mentioned in ALPA's integration policy. If it is completely impossible to estimate this variable and make an adjustment for it, why would ALPA specifically include it in its merger policy?

 

[Cpt Oveur]

Their upgrade expectation was well more than 30 months. I remember hearing numbers like "5 years" being common at the training center being thrown around as reasonable expectations to upgrade. Now the word "reasonable" is just as subjective as you can make it. True, while they will sit deep reserve. The landscape has changed significantly since they opened the hiring doors until now. Even though the rumors of a UAL/CAL merger were just as rampant in Houston then as they are now. You are right though, it will most likely slow down the time it takes to upgrade there.

I can' imagine what a viable solution will be that will make everyone happy. Some are going to benefit from a merged list, most will probably not in the short term, it stinks. But like they say in the Godfather, pt II, "This is the business we've chosen."

 

[Andy]

Cpt Oveur, good luck to you and everyone at CAL. I hope that this merger rumor doesn't degenerate into an undeclared Hatfield/McCoy war between CAL and UAL pilots; that's what happened with UAL and USAir. And the only result from that is a lingering disdain between the two pilot groups.

When I left the military, my first airline had contracted with Northwest for sim time. By the end of lunchtime my first day there, I was completely versed in the Northwest/Republic merger, the redbook/greenbook thing, and all about fences. This was almost 15 years after the merger.
If we end up merging, there will be no winners among the pilots. Only the perception that one got screwed because they perceive that another benefitted.

I hope that we don't merge, but should it come to pass, the bright side of this is that we have relatively small route overlap and CAL is probably the best 'fit' for UAL.

Good luck to everyone at CAL.

 

[Andy]

Double post

 

[motch]

While not a big fan of a merger by anyone, the fact is that if DAL/ NWA merge, the remaining carriers will have to look at mergers.

A new DNWAL would have roughly 834 aircraft. The next closest is AA with 664. UAL and CAL are in the back with 460 and 363 aircraft. This is a hugh difference. Then you look at the route structure and the codeshare agreement with AirFrance, you realize that they would truly be a global powerhouse.

If the DAL/NWA MEC can come up with a list that makes everyone pissed while making increases in pay and work rules then they have done their job (lol).
If they can't, it will be interesting to see if management still goes ahead with a merger as they could fall back on the union and say that ALPA does have a merger seniority agreement for such a case.

As time moves on, the world is becoming more of a global enterprise and merging companies does make sense. As pilots we have an obligation to look forward and protect out industry. Not just for today and next year, but for 10 and 20 years from now.

As a side note, we could all learn something from BA pilots. Who just had 90% of their members vote, 87% for a strike to counter their managements attempt to pull a GoJet deal!

Always
Motch

 

[BigMeat]

ATRCA, I figured that you were a newbie at CAL. http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?p=1430591#post1430591

Your posts remind me of that ******************************bag flylow22 when USAir was in merger mode with UAL.

Stop feeding the flames of dissent.

Andy you are right he should not be worried about being furloughed after spending so many years and paying for his flight training out of his own pocket. Finally making to the majors is a major accomplishment and on top of that he gets to get furloughed over merger deals that will have no significant benefits for cal. You however have the opportunity to support your family through your military flying. He can have his concerns. Maybe instead of fighting each other we need to fight people like McCain and Bush who find it fit to allow our flying to be handed out like candy (open skies) and future foreign ownership. Get a grip i dont care if he is new he has more to lose than you.

 

[motch]

As a side note..
Great to see we are ordering more aircraft, both wide and narrow bodies. Hopefully they are for us and not a pre merger move to replace older UAL aircraft!

One thing I am worried about in a potential merger is scope and furloughs.

ALL MEC's need to INSIST that under no circumstances will fleet reduction due to a merger will result in furloughs while RJ feed increases. On top of that, all 70 seat jet flying needs to immeadiately stop at the level they are at.

There will be some mainline flying overlap but I do think there's more RJ overlap. That is the flying that needs to be replaced with mainline flying.

Always
Motch

 

[IAHERJ]

When they were hired in spring 05, what was their upgrade expectation?
When I was hired at United in 2000, there were guys getting to the left seat in less than 24 months. But there were a 2000 numbers between me and them; 20% of the company.
How many numbers are between the newest hire on property and the spring 05 hires?

Hasn't CAL had some left seat bids get cancelled since the age change?

Finally, if we're all lucky, no merger will take place. In which case, all of this will have riled up some people for no reason whatsoever. It's going to go by relative seniority, give or take a little bit with minimal fences. And everyone involved will complain for the rest of their careers about how they got screwed. Fun stuff.

Right now, the newest hire is about 1,220 numbers from the most junior captain at CAL. That's about 26% away from a left seat bid. You are right in your posts. Hopefully any merger will be a relative seniority type merger and we can all bitch for a while then focus on being a strong airine going forward. Obviously no merger is probably the best idea for all of us, especially a guy like me who missed CA on the last bid by 158 numbers.....

IAHERJ

 

[Andy]

Andy you are right he should not be worried about being furloughed after spending so many years and paying for his flight training out of his own pocket. Finally making to the majors is a major accomplishment and on top of that he gets to get furloughed over merger deals that will have no significant benefits for cal. You however have the opportunity to support your family through your military flying. He can have his concerns. Maybe instead of fighting each other we need to fight people like McCain and Bush who find it fit to allow our flying to be handed out like candy (open skies) and future foreign ownership. Get a grip i dont care if he is new he has more to lose than you.

meat, I haven't flown a military aircraft since 2002. It would be easier for ATRCA to fly in the military than me. And I have a daughter in college that I'm helping pay for - student loans and grants only cover part of the costs. So, no, he doesn't have more to lose than me.
And for that matter, you too could fly military aircraft in your spare time. Not that it's relevant to the discussion at hand.

 

[pipe]

The only reason you hear pilots talk of career expectations is because it is specifically mentioned in ALPA's integration policy. If it is completely impossible to estimate this variable and make an adjustment for it, why would ALPA specifically include it in its merger policy?

Okay. Estimate for me. It is Feb '86. Give me your best estimate of the career expectations of the last guy on the CAL list in Feb '86.

That's what I thought. Missed by a bit, didn't you? Well, that guy would have gotten screwed to the wall on the basis of that snapshot.

Why is it mentioned in ALPA policy? I don't know. Until they have a proven means to estimate it, it shouldn't be in there. The day that that the merger goes through, everyone is tied to the same anchor (CEO). At the moment of merger, everyone has the same career expectations. Relative seniority is the only way. If that doesn't work for you fine - take your best shot to block the merger. The fact is, if you think that the merger doesn't improve everyone's career expectations, then you should be trying to block it.

I think that pilots have gotten too conditioned to what has happened under the "watchful" eye of bankruptcy judges. The days of the cramdown are temporarily on hold (at least until McCain's swearing in). We can, and should, block mergers that don't improve everyone's career expectations. Guess what - if it doesn't improve your career expectations, in all likelihood it doesn't do anything for shareholder value. That is the key to blockage. No one gives a damn about your career, but if you can prove that it hurts shareholders, you may be able to stop it.

PIPE

 

[Furloughed80]

Okay. Estimate for me. It is Feb '86. Give me your best estimate of the career expectations of the last guy on the CAL list in Feb '86.

That's what I thought. Missed by a bit, didn't you? Well, that guy would have gotten screwed to the wall on the basis of that snapshot.

The longer the time-line, the more difficult an estimation of career expectations become. However, in 1986, one could project the career progression of a new-hire at CAL 5 years forward with reasonable accuracy. IMHO, relative seniority with an adjustment for career expectations would be fair in a CAL/UAL merger.

 

[Captain X]

Hey CAL GUYS ARE YOU COMING TO WALL STREET ON THE 12th? I EXPECT TO SEE YOU ALL THERE NO EXCUSES!

SIGN UP ON THE CAL ALPA WEBSITE

Yeah! And right after you do that, go cast a vote on the Merger Assessment!