You are right... When I went to Chautauqua I was told I'd upgrade in 2 years. Turns out it was a year and 11 months.
Career expectations ARE real and not that financial positions can't change. But... It is unfair for a pilot at UAL to benefit from CAL's current $$ position, fleet renewal, and good management. You cannot argue against that.
I say that with all due respect to the UAL pilots. If they had a better system right now I'd just be happy to be getting under their umbrella. Not saying it should be a staple or anything but there should be some accomadation made.
My piece,
Oldguy
Oldguy, UAL's balance sheet is at least as solid as CAL's. In 2007, UAL paid off $2.7 Billion in debt. At the end of Q4, UAL had $4.4Billion cash on hand; $3.6 Billion unrestricted. I don't know where people come up with the idea that UAL's balance sheet is not solid; it is not ground in reality. UAL is currently a cash cow; fortunately, management's been smart enough to use that money for aircraft interior upgrades, paying down debt, and building up large on hand cash reserves.
UAL is seeing RASM premiums over competition. Granted, UAL's CASM is high, but I've found through the years that management can play with cost numbers to make things look better or worse than reality.
UAL has a clean balance sheet and is decreasing debtloads, exactly what you want to see going into an economic downturn. I don't know if you've priced out the credit markets lately, but now is NOT a good time to be taking on additional debt. The credit markets are getting totally whacked and double digit loan rates are becoming the norm. I don't know how CAL plans to finance all of those orders, but if they plan on a buy/leaseback arrangement, they could be in for a rude awakening. CAL's operations are not throwing off enough cash to pay for the new equipment, so financing is a requirement.
I do not consider taking on additional debt and ordering aircraft in the current environment to be 'smart' management.
You can't reliably forecast CAL's upgrade expectations at this time; CAL has a TON of training float. Once the vacancy bids to the left seat slow, the training float will vanish. With the amount of hiring that has already occurred, a current newhire would be foolish to plan on less than 5 years in the right seat. And even that's optimistic.
As for seniority integration, it won't be stapling or date of hire; relative seniority is the likely outcome. All of the negative comments about the other carrier will do nothing to change that.
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