Another aircraft order from CAL

[Andy]

You are right... When I went to Chautauqua I was told I'd upgrade in 2 years. Turns out it was a year and 11 months.

Career expectations ARE real and not that financial positions can't change. But... It is unfair for a pilot at UAL to benefit from CAL's current $$ position, fleet renewal, and good management. You cannot argue against that.

I say that with all due respect to the UAL pilots. If they had a better system right now I'd just be happy to be getting under their umbrella. Not saying it should be a staple or anything but there should be some accomadation made.

My piece,

Oldguy

Oldguy, UAL's balance sheet is at least as solid as CAL's. In 2007, UAL paid off $2.7 Billion in debt. At the end of Q4, UAL had $4.4Billion cash on hand; $3.6 Billion unrestricted. I don't know where people come up with the idea that UAL's balance sheet is not solid; it is not ground in reality. UAL is currently a cash cow; fortunately, management's been smart enough to use that money for aircraft interior upgrades, paying down debt, and building up large on hand cash reserves.
UAL is seeing RASM premiums over competition. Granted, UAL's CASM is high, but I've found through the years that management can play with cost numbers to make things look better or worse than reality.
UAL has a clean balance sheet and is decreasing debtloads, exactly what you want to see going into an economic downturn. I don't know if you've priced out the credit markets lately, but now is NOT a good time to be taking on additional debt. The credit markets are getting totally whacked and double digit loan rates are becoming the norm. I don't know how CAL plans to finance all of those orders, but if they plan on a buy/leaseback arrangement, they could be in for a rude awakening. CAL's operations are not throwing off enough cash to pay for the new equipment, so financing is a requirement.
I do not consider taking on additional debt and ordering aircraft in the current environment to be 'smart' management.

You can't reliably forecast CAL's upgrade expectations at this time; CAL has a TON of training float. Once the vacancy bids to the left seat slow, the training float will vanish. With the amount of hiring that has already occurred, a current newhire would be foolish to plan on less than 5 years in the right seat. And even that's optimistic.

As for seniority integration, it won't be stapling or date of hire; relative seniority is the likely outcome. All of the negative comments about the other carrier will do nothing to change that.

 

[Cpt Oveur]

Well, there are quite a few spring '05 new hires who are sitting left seat in EWR right now.

 

[XShuttle]

FWIW, in the AAA/AWA case, Nicolau specifically gave "no weight" to pre-merger orders or options and used a zero growth basis for the integration.

 

[Andy]

Well, there are quite a few spring '05 new hires who are sitting left seat in EWR right now.

When they were hired in spring 05, what was their upgrade expectation?
When I was hired at United in 2000, there were guys getting to the left seat in less than 24 months. But there were a 2000 numbers between me and them; 20% of the company.
How many numbers are between the newest hire on property and the spring 05 hires?

Hasn't CAL had some left seat bids get cancelled since the age change?

Finally, if we're all lucky, no merger will take place. In which case, all of this will have riled up some people for no reason whatsoever. It's going to go by relative seniority, give or take a little bit with minimal fences. And everyone involved will complain for the rest of their careers about how they got screwed. Fun stuff.

 

[Furloughed80]

The only reason you hear pilots talk of career expectations is because it is specifically mentioned in ALPA's integration policy. If it is completely impossible to estimate this variable and make an adjustment for it, why would ALPA specifically include it in its merger policy?

 

[Cpt Oveur]

Their upgrade expectation was well more than 30 months. I remember hearing numbers like "5 years" being common at the training center being thrown around as reasonable expectations to upgrade. Now the word "reasonable" is just as subjective as you can make it. True, while they will sit deep reserve. The landscape has changed significantly since they opened the hiring doors until now. Even though the rumors of a UAL/CAL merger were just as rampant in Houston then as they are now. You are right though, it will most likely slow down the time it takes to upgrade there.

I can' imagine what a viable solution will be that will make everyone happy. Some are going to benefit from a merged list, most will probably not in the short term, it stinks. But like they say in the Godfather, pt II, "This is the business we've chosen."

 

[Andy]

Cpt Oveur, good luck to you and everyone at CAL. I hope that this merger rumor doesn't degenerate into an undeclared Hatfield/McCoy war between CAL and UAL pilots; that's what happened with UAL and USAir. And the only result from that is a lingering disdain between the two pilot groups.

When I left the military, my first airline had contracted with Northwest for sim time. By the end of lunchtime my first day there, I was completely versed in the Northwest/Republic merger, the redbook/greenbook thing, and all about fences. This was almost 15 years after the merger.
If we end up merging, there will be no winners among the pilots. Only the perception that one got screwed because they perceive that another benefitted.

I hope that we don't merge, but should it come to pass, the bright side of this is that we have relatively small route overlap and CAL is probably the best 'fit' for UAL.

Good luck to everyone at CAL.

 

[Andy]

Double post

 

[motch]

While not a big fan of a merger by anyone, the fact is that if DAL/ NWA merge, the remaining carriers will have to look at mergers.

A new DNWAL would have roughly 834 aircraft. The next closest is AA with 664. UAL and CAL are in the back with 460 and 363 aircraft. This is a hugh difference. Then you look at the route structure and the codeshare agreement with AirFrance, you realize that they would truly be a global powerhouse.

If the DAL/NWA MEC can come up with a list that makes everyone pissed while making increases in pay and work rules then they have done their job (lol).
If they can't, it will be interesting to see if management still goes ahead with a merger as they could fall back on the union and say that ALPA does have a merger seniority agreement for such a case.

As time moves on, the world is becoming more of a global enterprise and merging companies does make sense. As pilots we have an obligation to look forward and protect out industry. Not just for today and next year, but for 10 and 20 years from now.

As a side note, we could all learn something from BA pilots. Who just had 90% of their members vote, 87% for a strike to counter their managements attempt to pull a GoJet deal!

Always
Motch

 

[BigMeat]

ATRCA, I figured that you were a newbie at CAL. http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?p=1430591#post1430591

Your posts remind me of that ******************************bag flylow22 when USAir was in merger mode with UAL.

Stop feeding the flames of dissent.

Andy you are right he should not be worried about being furloughed after spending so many years and paying for his flight training out of his own pocket. Finally making to the majors is a major accomplishment and on top of that he gets to get furloughed over merger deals that will have no significant benefits for cal. You however have the opportunity to support your family through your military flying. He can have his concerns. Maybe instead of fighting each other we need to fight people like McCain and Bush who find it fit to allow our flying to be handed out like candy (open skies) and future foreign ownership. Get a grip i dont care if he is new he has more to lose than you.