NY Times reports Pardus/Bethune think NWA too messy

[Sedona16]

I would bet that NWA firms up some of those options per the request of their pilot group subject to DL agreeing to merge.

I think the two companies have an idea right now as to how many 787/777s they want in the fleet. Arbitration will be needed to decide some of these issues. But either way, I think the M&A far outways an option with UAL or going solo. There would have to be give and take from both groups.

imp:​

All I can say is if the DAL/NWA combo goes through and all the 787 options were executed, NOT as replacements but pure growth, that would produce a pilot seniority list of well over 15,000 pilots, making it the biggest (more than a thousand pilots bigger than a UAL/CAL combo) airline in the world, even if you include the 25 787's CAL has on order.

As a side note, if I were a management type I would use the lure of adding airframes immediately (more new 100 seaters...ie Airbus A318's and all these wide bodies...more 777's and 787's) to sweeten the deal. That way the jr guys and the senior guys see immediate career progression making a seniority list mergment much less threatening and harmful in the short run but beneficial in the long run. Just a thought.

The aircraft acquisition guys at Delta did say the A318 is currently their favorite 100 seater on the market today in a crew room Q and A session in SLC a couple months back.

 

[johnsonrod]

Why DAL/UAL?

ORD, DEN & SFO

That's why.

Close SLC (or make it a focus city) and CVG.

NWA would fit with CAL. Close CLE and you're set.

AMR would take some of the Asia routes they'd have to spin off to pacify the regulators (who would protest the NWAsia/Air Mic "conflict").TC

CAL has nothing on the West Coast. Clearly a UAL/CAL combo would make more sense to fill that void for CAL. Plus, they get to go home to Denver if that happens. I don't understand your logic for why NWA would be better than UAL for CAL...

 

[IronCityBlue]

How does IAD/DIA not conflict with JFK/ATL/SLC?

IAD is avation secret code for Washing DC, Dulles airport. JFK is Kennedy airport in New York City, which is a VASTLY different market than DC. Slightly confusing the matter, however, is the fact that there are many flights between JFK and DC. But there are, nevertheless, completely different markets.

ATL is Atlanta. While I can see the confusion, believe it or not, it really is a different market than SLC, IAD and DIA.

Seriouslly though, DIA/SLC may be the most significant redundancy. The others I wouldn't worry about. If a DAL/NWA merger goes though, tribal wisdom says close CVG, as DTW is immortal for NWA. But CVG is the highest yield hub in the country. DAL won't want to give that up, yet it makes no sense to operate dual hubs less than an hour away from one another. Then again, USAir did it for decades.

 

[johnsonrod]

IAD is avation secret code for Washing DC, Dulles airport. JFK is Kennedy airport in New York City, which is a VASTLY different market than DC. Slightly confusing the matter, however, is the fact that there are many flights between JFK and DC. But there are, nevertheless, completely different markets.

ATL is Atlanta. While I can see the confusion, believe it or not, it really is a different market than SLC, IAD and DIA.

Seriouslly though, DIA/SLC may be the most significant redundancy. The others I wouldn't worry about. If a DAL/NWA merger goes though, tribal wisdom says close CVG, as DTW is immortal for NWA. But CVG is the highest yield hub in the country. DAL won't want to give that up, yet it makes no sense to operate dual hubs less than an hour away from one another. Then again, USAir did it for decades.

DTW and MSP have always worked for NWA. You can fly 747-400s out of both to Asia - especially to NRT from DTW for the auto industry.. CVG has no link to Asia but some Europe for Delta. I would agree that CVG would be the weak link if Delta and NWA were to merge.

Given that NWA would bring a strong Asian network and relatively non-overlapping hubs for Delta, I can't possibly see why others feel UAL is the better fit. No way. Like others have said, Delta's CEO is former NWA - he knows that operation like the back of his hand. UAL is lethargic and although it offers a good Asian network, it has redundant hubs in LAX and JFK. Why add DEN when you already have a strong SLC hub? I would think CAL would really value UAL's strong West Coast presence since it has no West Coast presence whatsoever... Plus, I am betting the CAL pilots would love to return to Denver...

Delta + UAL makes no sense to me when NWA is also targeted...

 

[Sonny Crockett]

Sure are a lot of "Experts" around here!

 

[pipe]

But, Pardus is advocating not going the NWA route as it would involve closing CVG and MEM. They think this would somehow present regulation and union problems. How is the closing or SLC and CVG any different?

imp:​

ARE WE ALL REALLY THIS GULLIBLE???????

If they need to lie to Congress, DOJ, W, the unions, the shareholders, or their grandmothers to get approval - they will! Then they'll just dump whatever they want due to "the unforeseen economic realities" that they will cite six months after the approval.

Morality and long-term strategic management are not in play here. Short term "shareholder" (read management) value are the ONLY considerations.

PIPE

 

[General Lee]

ARE WE ALL REALLY THIS GULLIBLE???????

If they need to lie to Congress, DOJ, W, the unions, the shareholders, or their grandmothers to get approval - they will! Then they'll just dump whatever they want due to "the unforeseen economic realities" that they will cite six months after the approval.

Morality and long-term strategic management are not in play here. Short term "shareholder" (read management) value are the ONLY considerations.

PIPE

That's why you put it in writing first, and Lee Moak will make sure of that. Unless you go back to BK court, you can't change it. That is why we have to threaten a strike, which is allowed in our contract.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ualdriver]

Sure are a lot of "Experts" around here!

I was thinking the same thing, on both this thread and another thread or two that I was skimming. They already have UA pieced off and "feel sorry" for the UA employees. I'll make sure I turn off the lights when I get off my next trip.......

It's funny, in an aviation forum kind of way, where everyone has been bashing Tilton for the past several months (at least!) as someone who was very merger "pro-active," but Delta suddenly comes to the realization that maybe a merger may not be such a bad idea and everyone's all worked up to a lather- even the press.

 

[General Lee]

I was thinking the same thing, on both this thread and another thread or two that I was skimming. They already have UA pieced off and "feel sorry" for the UA employees. I'll make sure I turn off the lights when I get off my next trip.......

It's funny, in an aviation forum kind of way, where everyone has been bashing Tilton for the past several months (at least!) as someone who was very merger "pro-active," but Delta suddenly comes to the realization that maybe a merger may not be such a bad idea and everyone's all worked up to a lather- even the press.

Tilton wants out of this business, and back into the oil business where he could have made MORE money. He can't lead a group out of a paper bag. Delta on the otherhand, seems to have their "poop" together, and has a plan, but wants to solidify it with a full revenue stream---and have global domination from the US. I thought I saw United look initially for anyone interested in dancing with them, and there were no takers. Now, Delta is looking to find the best partner before anyone else starts asking around, and I think they have included United so they can get Bafoon and his rich friends at Pardus to get off their butt. Why would anyone want to absorb even more debt and risk plenty of overlap? I think it is funny Bafoon doesn't mention any of the obvious UA/DL overlap. The big losers at CVG and MEM are the regionals, not mainline. DL has 56 daily mainline flights at CVG, and NWA has about 40 at MEM. Not a huge hit at all compared to SLC and DEN, or ORD and CVG, or IAD and JFK, or the combined LAX base that both have redundant flights. (Hawaii, NY, BOS, MCO, etc...)

Remember, this is a forum for opinions, and everyone is allowed to have one. If you don't want to add your two cents, then don't ridicule people who do. If you want to read just articles and no opinions, look at Yahoo finance.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[pipe]

That's why you put it in writing first, and Lee Moak will make sure of that. Unless you go back to BK court, you can't change it. That is why we have to threaten a strike, which is allowed in our contract.


Bye Bye--General Lee

There are a couple of other minor details that have to be met before you can strike. I'm glad it's in your contract - it's in everyone else's contract too.

It would appear, however, that the NMB ain't real quick to release people to self-help.

Enjoy the Kool-Aid. I hope it makes you feel better. Please name for me the last pilot group that thought they did well in a merger.

PIPE

 

[ualdriver]

Remember, this is a forum for opinions, and everyone is allowed to have one. If you don't want to add your two cents, then don't ridicule people who do. If you want to read just articles and no opinions, look at Yahoo finance.


Bye Bye--General Lee

And my opinion was stated and two cents added! Four cents now!

 

[AA717driver]

None of us knows jack $h!t. This deal (the REAL one, not the one announced to the world in the NYT/WSJ) will be done in total secrecy and announced to EVERYONE'S surprise.

The unions will be bought off or steamrolled so if the Delta (or whoever) pilots don't like it, tough! The money men will not let a bunch of blue-collar workers tank a multi-billion dollar deal.

AND, if someone here guesses right, it will be dumb luck. TC

 

[General Lee]

There are a couple of other minor details that have to be met before you can strike. I'm glad it's in your contract - it's in everyone else's contract too.

It would appear, however, that the NMB ain't real quick to release people to self-help.

Enjoy the Kool-Aid. I hope it makes you feel better. Please name for me the last pilot group that thought they did well in a merger.

PIPE

I think the Reno Air or AirCal guys thought they did well with AAL. Also, there probably aren't a lot of people who enjoy mergers, but there are some mergers that "operationally" went well, route wise especially. The USAir and AWA merger was a seamless merger (route wise and hub wise), and that helped out both. The resulting seniority merge and East meltdown to crybaby status didn't help overall, but the merger was a success when blending two strengths.

And, if you doubt Lee Moak, then good. He did help thwart the USAir attempt, and he will do it again if he doesn't like the merger. It looks like NWA will be the partner to most analysts, (since Anderson and many of his cronies worked there), and that could be a good thing for our airline in general. Then watch the others scramble.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

None of us knows jack $h!t. This deal (the REAL one, not the one announced to the world in the NYT/WSJ) will be done in total secrecy and announced to EVERYONE'S surprise.

The unions will be bought off or steamrolled so if the Delta (or whoever) pilots don't like it, tough! The money men will not let a bunch of blue-collar workers tank a multi-billion dollar deal.

AND, if someone here guesses right, it will be dumb luck. TC

This is an opinion board. If you don't want to add your two cents, then go read Yahoo finance.

And, Wall St and the hedge funds were totally for a USAir and Delta hookup, and it was thwarted. Do you remember that? Tell me that didn't happen? I can't hear you????


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[IronCityBlue]

This is an opinion board. If you don't want to add your two cents, then go read Yahoo finance.

And, Wall St and the hedge funds were totally for a USAir and Delta hookup, and it was thwarted. Do you remember that? Tell me that didn't happen? I can't hear you????


Bye Bye--General Lee

You're right about the opinion thing. Its fine (and fun) to hash out all the different viewpoints we all have. Then when someone is right (and eventually someone is, simply by default) they (myself included) then like to brag about how wise they were for having seen it all along. :laugh:

But I woun't credit Moak for the botched USAir merger attempt. That was thwarted by Grinstein and the Delta BOD convincing their creditors that they would be better off due to stand alone potential. They were wrong (from a purely near term financial standpoint) but I think its better off for everyone (except the fund dorks who like to play with airplanes at the expense of our careers) because a DAL/USAir would not have been the best long term deal. Except maybe to Parker.