NY Times reports Pardus/Bethune think NWA too messy

[General Lee]

I wouldn't expect a percentage either. It will be relative seniority, widebody captains integrated with wide body captains, narrowbody captains with narrowbody captains, and so on. There will be some adjustments to that to account for retirements, aircraft orders, etc, but I don't think it would stray far from that.

We have recently returned furloughed pilots now holding NYC MD88 Captain. How would that work?


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FixNFly]

So with either of the scenarios (DL/UAUA or DL/NWA) would it be furlough or stop hiring? My guess is the hiring would stop for at least a year.

 

[General Lee]

So with either of the scenarios (DL/UAUA or DL/NWA) would it be furlough or stop hiring? My guess is the hiring would stop for at least a year.

We are budgeted to hire 600 more this year, and the number was going to go into the 700s if we had gotten the MD90s. I think we are still short in NYC for the INTL stuff, and those routes are not covered by NWA or UAL. I don't see furloughing, as long as we merge with NWA. We are still short on pilots, and I think the NWA side is hiring too. Maybe there would be a reduction in hiring a bit until we know what the result would be, but we still have to cover those flights for the Summer. Again, maybe a slow down in hiring I would think.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[michael707767]

We have recently returned furloughed pilots now holding NYC MD88 Captain. How would that work?

well, obviously you don't re-order your own list, so it's not like a 2000 hire with a captain bid moves up, nor does a 91 hire flying 767 FO move down. But, you can look at it and say generally the 88 captains at Delta go from number x to number y, so you order the new list so that x-y end up roughly with the captains of an equivalent airplane from the new company. I don't care when our junior captain was hired. Consequently I think that person should end up approximately on the list to where he/she can still be the bottom narrowbody captain.

Every list has it's anamolies. The very junior person who got a captain bid and the super senior person still flying 767 FO so they can be number one in their category. So I still think you can go pretty much by equipment.

It really would not be much of a player in either a NW or UAL merger, since the ratio of widebody to narrowbody is pretty much the same. So a straight percentage in these sitiations would probably not be far off. But in a case like USAir and AWA, I think it reasonable that the USAir widebody captains go to the top of the list since AWA had on widebodies.

 

[Sedona16]

well, obviously you don't re-order your own list, so it's not like a 2000 hire with a captain bid moves up, nor does a 91 hire flying 767 FO move down. But, you can look at it and say generally the 88 captains at Delta go from number x to number y, so you order the new list so that x-y end up roughly with the captains of an equivalent airplane from the new company. I don't care when our junior captain was hired. Consequently I think that person should end up approximately on the list to where he/she can still be the bottom narrowbody captain.

Every list has it's anamolies. The very junior person who got a captain bid and the super senior person still flying 767 FO so they can be number one in their category. So I still think you can go pretty much by equipment.

It really would not be much of a player in either a NW or UAL merger, since the ratio of widebody to narrowbody is pretty much the same. So a straight percentage in these sitiations would probably not be far off. But in a case like USAir and AWA, I think it reasonable that the USAir widebody captains go to the top of the list since AWA had on widebodies.

Actually Delta has quite a few more wide bodies (not just talking about the flight attendants) than does NWA. NWA, including the rope start 747's on the freight side has roughly 60 wide bodies whereas Delta has roughly 115 to 120 when you factor in the 777's coming on board. So Delta has almost twice as many wide bodies and a good handfull of new hires flying some of these wide bodies. NWA slants much more heavily toward small jet (under 100 seats) on their seniority list. Delta has nothing comparable to the DC9's seating wise. I dont know if this will play into seniority lists mergment or not but certainly worth noting.

 

[lowecur]

Actually Delta has quite a few more wide bodies (not just talking about the flight attendants) than does NWA. NWA, including the rope start 747's on the freight side has roughly 60 wide bodies whereas Delta has roughly 115 to 120 when you factor in the 777's coming on board. So Delta has almost twice as many wide bodies and a good handfull of new hires flying some of these wide bodies. NWA slants much more heavily toward small jet (under 100 seats) on their seniority list. Delta has nothing comparable to the DC9's seating wise. I dont know if this will play into seniority lists mergment or not but certainly worth noting.

You're forgetting that NWA has ordered 18 787 w/options for 50 more. They will probably retire some of the 744's as they come on board. So I think who ever is available to upgrade to those 787s would have to be included.

imp:​

 

[waveflyer]

i love how pilots argue incessantly over who has a right to which jobs that were created by management teams that could care less about you.

Think about how much different this WHOLE time would be if we had a national seniority list... Just think about...

 

[GogglesPisano]

What are the odds Moak would insist on a no-furlough clause?

Not that no-furlough clauses are worth the paper they're printed on.

 

[General Lee]

You're forgetting that NWA has ordered 18 787 w/options for 50 more. They will probably retire some of the 744's as they come on board. So I think who ever is available to upgrade to those 787s would have to be included.

imp:​

NWA will be retiring almost all of their 742s (no more in PAX service and only 10-15 in ANC for cargo), and may replace them with the 744s. The 787s are smaller than the 777LRs we are getting, and we could get just as many 777s as they are getting 787s. We have twice the amount of 757s as they have, and three times the amount of 767s as they have A330s. We are a bigger airline by far, but they do beat us on 100 seaters (DC9s)! Hey, if we merge with them, we will have a great fleet regardless. And, it looks like Delta will have 747s again in the near future. Wow. (please let them have red tails and not blue)


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Sedona16]

You're forgetting that NWA has ordered 18 787 w/options for 50 more. They will probably retire some of the 744's as they come on board. So I think who ever is available to upgrade to those 787s would have to be included.

imp:​

Thats an interesting point. If I was a mediator type I would probably allow the 18 as far as career expectations but leave the options off. That would put Delta at 120 wide bodies and NWA at around 80. Also there is the fact noone at the bottom of NWA's seniority list can get anywhere near the right seat of a heavy whilst Delta new hires have recently been forced into widebody seats, at least initially.

 

[General Lee]

What are the odds Moak would insist on a no-furlough clause?

Not that no-furlough clauses are worth the paper they're printed on.

There is no doubt he will ask for job protection. We are not in the same dire straights as we were during 9-11 when everyone stopped travelling. We also are adding INTL destinations to find revenue. Those routes need more pilots due to the longer trips. If we do merge, we will need a new contract, and I am sure he will ask for pay, job protection, and scope again.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Sedona16]

i love how pilots argue incessantly over who has a right to which jobs that were created by management teams that could care less about you.

Think about how much different this WHOLE time would be if we had a national seniority list... Just think about...

Agreed! As I read "Flying the Line" (the history of a national pilot union) and all that Dave Benkie (sp?) did I think a national seniority list is the one big area he missed the boat. He did other great things though.

 

[michael707767]

Agreed! As I read "Flying the Line" (the history of a national pilot union) and all that Dave Benkie (sp?) did I think a national seniority list is the one big area he missed the boat. He did other great things though.

I agree. A national seniority list, started way back then, would have been great. Too late to even consider it now though.

 

[lowecur]

Thats an interesting point. If I was a mediator type I would probably allow the 18 as far as career expectations but leave the options off. That would put Delta at 120 wide bodies and NWA at around 80. Also there is the fact noone at the bottom of NWA's seniority list can get anywhere near the right seat of a heavy whilst Delta new hires have recently been forced into widebody seats, at least initially.

I would bet that NWA firms up some of those options per the request of their pilot group subject to DL agreeing to merge.

I think the two companies have an idea right now as to how many 787/777s they want in the fleet. Arbitration will be needed to decide some of these issues. But either way, I think the M&A far outways an option with UAL or going solo. There would have to be give and take from both groups.

imp:​

 

[Marko Ramius]

Fins(and others) seem to forget about the beyond rights that both NWA and UAL hold at Narita. They aren't transferable from entity to entity. They were never intended to be, but previously they had allowed transfers like PAA to UAL and Flying Tigers to FedEx to occur. I think they closed that loophole in some agreement during the some late 90's agreement. I think that is part of why there was never any real serious talks(lazy, fly by night analysts don't count!) about selling those routes during either carriers bankruptcy. As a result I doubt that there will be just a sale of the UAL Pacific routes and what will likely make people even madder is that UAL or NWA would probably be the suriving corporate entity even if it's Delta's management because of the names on those 5th freedom rights.

 

[Sedona16]

I would bet that NWA firms up some of those options per the request of their pilot group subject to DL agreeing to merge.

I think the two companies have an idea right now as to how many 787/777s they want in the fleet. Arbitration will be needed to decide some of these issues. But either way, I think the M&A far outways an option with UAL or going solo. There would have to be give and take from both groups.

imp:​

All I can say is if the DAL/NWA combo goes through and all the 787 options were executed, NOT as replacements but pure growth, that would produce a pilot seniority list of well over 15,000 pilots, making it the biggest (more than a thousand pilots bigger than a UAL/CAL combo) airline in the world, even if you include the 25 787's CAL has on order.

As a side note, if I were a management type I would use the lure of adding airframes immediately (more new 100 seaters...ie Airbus A318's and all these wide bodies...more 777's and 787's) to sweeten the deal. That way the jr guys and the senior guys see immediate career progression making a seniority list mergment much less threatening and harmful in the short run but beneficial in the long run. Just a thought.

The aircraft acquisition guys at Delta did say the A318 is currently their favorite 100 seater on the market today in a crew room Q and A session in SLC a couple months back.

 

[johnsonrod]

Why DAL/UAL?

ORD, DEN & SFO

That's why.

Close SLC (or make it a focus city) and CVG.

NWA would fit with CAL. Close CLE and you're set.

AMR would take some of the Asia routes they'd have to spin off to pacify the regulators (who would protest the NWAsia/Air Mic "conflict").TC

CAL has nothing on the West Coast. Clearly a UAL/CAL combo would make more sense to fill that void for CAL. Plus, they get to go home to Denver if that happens. I don't understand your logic for why NWA would be better than UAL for CAL...

 

[IronCityBlue]

How does IAD/DIA not conflict with JFK/ATL/SLC?

IAD is avation secret code for Washing DC, Dulles airport. JFK is Kennedy airport in New York City, which is a VASTLY different market than DC. Slightly confusing the matter, however, is the fact that there are many flights between JFK and DC. But there are, nevertheless, completely different markets.

ATL is Atlanta. While I can see the confusion, believe it or not, it really is a different market than SLC, IAD and DIA.

Seriouslly though, DIA/SLC may be the most significant redundancy. The others I wouldn't worry about. If a DAL/NWA merger goes though, tribal wisdom says close CVG, as DTW is immortal for NWA. But CVG is the highest yield hub in the country. DAL won't want to give that up, yet it makes no sense to operate dual hubs less than an hour away from one another. Then again, USAir did it for decades.

 

[johnsonrod]

IAD is avation secret code for Washing DC, Dulles airport. JFK is Kennedy airport in New York City, which is a VASTLY different market than DC. Slightly confusing the matter, however, is the fact that there are many flights between JFK and DC. But there are, nevertheless, completely different markets.

ATL is Atlanta. While I can see the confusion, believe it or not, it really is a different market than SLC, IAD and DIA.

Seriouslly though, DIA/SLC may be the most significant redundancy. The others I wouldn't worry about. If a DAL/NWA merger goes though, tribal wisdom says close CVG, as DTW is immortal for NWA. But CVG is the highest yield hub in the country. DAL won't want to give that up, yet it makes no sense to operate dual hubs less than an hour away from one another. Then again, USAir did it for decades.

DTW and MSP have always worked for NWA. You can fly 747-400s out of both to Asia - especially to NRT from DTW for the auto industry.. CVG has no link to Asia but some Europe for Delta. I would agree that CVG would be the weak link if Delta and NWA were to merge.

Given that NWA would bring a strong Asian network and relatively non-overlapping hubs for Delta, I can't possibly see why others feel UAL is the better fit. No way. Like others have said, Delta's CEO is former NWA - he knows that operation like the back of his hand. UAL is lethargic and although it offers a good Asian network, it has redundant hubs in LAX and JFK. Why add DEN when you already have a strong SLC hub? I would think CAL would really value UAL's strong West Coast presence since it has no West Coast presence whatsoever... Plus, I am betting the CAL pilots would love to return to Denver...

Delta + UAL makes no sense to me when NWA is also targeted...

 

[Sonny Crockett]

Sure are a lot of "Experts" around here!

 

[pipe]

But, Pardus is advocating not going the NWA route as it would involve closing CVG and MEM. They think this would somehow present regulation and union problems. How is the closing or SLC and CVG any different?

imp:​

ARE WE ALL REALLY THIS GULLIBLE???????

If they need to lie to Congress, DOJ, W, the unions, the shareholders, or their grandmothers to get approval - they will! Then they'll just dump whatever they want due to "the unforeseen economic realities" that they will cite six months after the approval.

Morality and long-term strategic management are not in play here. Short term "shareholder" (read management) value are the ONLY considerations.

PIPE

 

[General Lee]

ARE WE ALL REALLY THIS GULLIBLE???????

If they need to lie to Congress, DOJ, W, the unions, the shareholders, or their grandmothers to get approval - they will! Then they'll just dump whatever they want due to "the unforeseen economic realities" that they will cite six months after the approval.

Morality and long-term strategic management are not in play here. Short term "shareholder" (read management) value are the ONLY considerations.

PIPE

That's why you put it in writing first, and Lee Moak will make sure of that. Unless you go back to BK court, you can't change it. That is why we have to threaten a strike, which is allowed in our contract.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ualdriver]

Sure are a lot of "Experts" around here!

I was thinking the same thing, on both this thread and another thread or two that I was skimming. They already have UA pieced off and "feel sorry" for the UA employees. I'll make sure I turn off the lights when I get off my next trip.......

It's funny, in an aviation forum kind of way, where everyone has been bashing Tilton for the past several months (at least!) as someone who was very merger "pro-active," but Delta suddenly comes to the realization that maybe a merger may not be such a bad idea and everyone's all worked up to a lather- even the press.

 

[General Lee]

I was thinking the same thing, on both this thread and another thread or two that I was skimming. They already have UA pieced off and "feel sorry" for the UA employees. I'll make sure I turn off the lights when I get off my next trip.......

It's funny, in an aviation forum kind of way, where everyone has been bashing Tilton for the past several months (at least!) as someone who was very merger "pro-active," but Delta suddenly comes to the realization that maybe a merger may not be such a bad idea and everyone's all worked up to a lather- even the press.

Tilton wants out of this business, and back into the oil business where he could have made MORE money. He can't lead a group out of a paper bag. Delta on the otherhand, seems to have their "poop" together, and has a plan, but wants to solidify it with a full revenue stream---and have global domination from the US. I thought I saw United look initially for anyone interested in dancing with them, and there were no takers. Now, Delta is looking to find the best partner before anyone else starts asking around, and I think they have included United so they can get Bafoon and his rich friends at Pardus to get off their butt. Why would anyone want to absorb even more debt and risk plenty of overlap? I think it is funny Bafoon doesn't mention any of the obvious UA/DL overlap. The big losers at CVG and MEM are the regionals, not mainline. DL has 56 daily mainline flights at CVG, and NWA has about 40 at MEM. Not a huge hit at all compared to SLC and DEN, or ORD and CVG, or IAD and JFK, or the combined LAX base that both have redundant flights. (Hawaii, NY, BOS, MCO, etc...)

Remember, this is a forum for opinions, and everyone is allowed to have one. If you don't want to add your two cents, then don't ridicule people who do. If you want to read just articles and no opinions, look at Yahoo finance.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[pipe]

That's why you put it in writing first, and Lee Moak will make sure of that. Unless you go back to BK court, you can't change it. That is why we have to threaten a strike, which is allowed in our contract.


Bye Bye--General Lee

There are a couple of other minor details that have to be met before you can strike. I'm glad it's in your contract - it's in everyone else's contract too.

It would appear, however, that the NMB ain't real quick to release people to self-help.

Enjoy the Kool-Aid. I hope it makes you feel better. Please name for me the last pilot group that thought they did well in a merger.

PIPE

 

[ualdriver]

Remember, this is a forum for opinions, and everyone is allowed to have one. If you don't want to add your two cents, then don't ridicule people who do. If you want to read just articles and no opinions, look at Yahoo finance.


Bye Bye--General Lee

And my opinion was stated and two cents added! Four cents now!

 

[AA717driver]

None of us knows jack $h!t. This deal (the REAL one, not the one announced to the world in the NYT/WSJ) will be done in total secrecy and announced to EVERYONE'S surprise.

The unions will be bought off or steamrolled so if the Delta (or whoever) pilots don't like it, tough! The money men will not let a bunch of blue-collar workers tank a multi-billion dollar deal.

AND, if someone here guesses right, it will be dumb luck. TC

 

[General Lee]

There are a couple of other minor details that have to be met before you can strike. I'm glad it's in your contract - it's in everyone else's contract too.

It would appear, however, that the NMB ain't real quick to release people to self-help.

Enjoy the Kool-Aid. I hope it makes you feel better. Please name for me the last pilot group that thought they did well in a merger.

PIPE

I think the Reno Air or AirCal guys thought they did well with AAL. Also, there probably aren't a lot of people who enjoy mergers, but there are some mergers that "operationally" went well, route wise especially. The USAir and AWA merger was a seamless merger (route wise and hub wise), and that helped out both. The resulting seniority merge and East meltdown to crybaby status didn't help overall, but the merger was a success when blending two strengths.

And, if you doubt Lee Moak, then good. He did help thwart the USAir attempt, and he will do it again if he doesn't like the merger. It looks like NWA will be the partner to most analysts, (since Anderson and many of his cronies worked there), and that could be a good thing for our airline in general. Then watch the others scramble.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

None of us knows jack $h!t. This deal (the REAL one, not the one announced to the world in the NYT/WSJ) will be done in total secrecy and announced to EVERYONE'S surprise.

The unions will be bought off or steamrolled so if the Delta (or whoever) pilots don't like it, tough! The money men will not let a bunch of blue-collar workers tank a multi-billion dollar deal.

AND, if someone here guesses right, it will be dumb luck. TC

This is an opinion board. If you don't want to add your two cents, then go read Yahoo finance.

And, Wall St and the hedge funds were totally for a USAir and Delta hookup, and it was thwarted. Do you remember that? Tell me that didn't happen? I can't hear you????


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[IronCityBlue]

This is an opinion board. If you don't want to add your two cents, then go read Yahoo finance.

And, Wall St and the hedge funds were totally for a USAir and Delta hookup, and it was thwarted. Do you remember that? Tell me that didn't happen? I can't hear you????


Bye Bye--General Lee

You're right about the opinion thing. Its fine (and fun) to hash out all the different viewpoints we all have. Then when someone is right (and eventually someone is, simply by default) they (myself included) then like to brag about how wise they were for having seen it all along. :laugh:

But I woun't credit Moak for the botched USAir merger attempt. That was thwarted by Grinstein and the Delta BOD convincing their creditors that they would be better off due to stand alone potential. They were wrong (from a purely near term financial standpoint) but I think its better off for everyone (except the fund dorks who like to play with airplanes at the expense of our careers) because a DAL/USAir would not have been the best long term deal. Except maybe to Parker.