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NY Times reports Pardus/Bethune think NWA too messy

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lowecur

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 14, 2003
Posts
2,317
Looks like even though a DL/NWA consolidation would save $1.5B through the closing of CVG/MEM, Pardus/Bethune think a DL/UAL deal(savings of approx $600M) would face less opposition from regulators.

Gee, I wonder if they have a higher vested interest in that choice?

:pimp:​

January 11, 2008

Delta Executives Consider Merger Talks

By JEFF BAILEY

Executives of Delta Air Lines, facing increasingly grim economic conditions, plan to ask the carrier’s directors on Friday for permission to engage in merger discussions with United Airlines and Northwest Airlines, a step that could push the industry’s much-talked-about need to consolidate closer to reality.
Oil at nearly $100 a barrel, a slowing economy and airline workers demanding raises to compensate for the pay cuts in recent bankruptcies are all conspiring to snuff out the industry’s nascent recovery. That has executives and investors looking at possible mergers as a way to cut costs and stay profitable.
News of the proposal to Delta’s board sent airline stocks soaring.

But mergers are highly risky in the airline business. Complex old computer systems do not mesh easily. Political opposition can crop up when service to a city or state is threatened with cuts. And labor unions — crucial to providing good service and a smooth operation — can effectively torpedo a deal if they choose.

Despite all that, the likelihood of a major deal appears more probable than it did last year because the cost of doing nothing could be another round of big losses, and even bankruptcies.

Big airlines remain deeply in debt, and revenue could decline sharply in a recession.

Delta was urged in November by a large shareholder, Pardus Capital Management, to seek a merger with United. Pardus argued the two carriers would save $585 million a year by combining. Pardus said a merger with Northwest could save $1.5 billion a year, largely by shutting two hubs.

The most likely candidates would be the Memphis operation of Northwest and the Cincinnati operation of Delta. But doing that inevitably would attract political and union opposition. Thus, Pardus favored a deal with United.

“What we were doing is trying to make something that is civilized,” said Gordon M. Bethune, a former Continental Airlines chief executive who is advising Pardus.

Delta, led by its new chief executive, Richard H. Anderson, and a special board committee, has been studying possible combinations with other airlines.
A person close to the situation Thursday confirmed that Mr. Anderson would be asking directors for approval to proceed into direct talks with United, operated by UAL, and Northwest. The proposal to directors was reported Thursday by The Wall Street Journal on its Web site.

Delta, United and Northwest all declined comment.
If the Delta board consents to merger discussions, any deal could still take months to work out and talks could easily fall apart.

Airline industry executives generally assume that both United’s chief executive, Glenn F. Tilton, and Northwest’s, Douglas M. Steenland, want to sell their companies.

Shares of Northwest leapt 32 percent on the news, to $15.85; United rose 24 percent, to $32.29; and Delta jumped 18 percent, to $15.98.

Shares of other big carriers rose as well, as investors anticipated a possible industry realignment.

Continental rose 24 percent, to $23.25. US Airways rose 15 percent, to $12.55. AMR, the parent of American Airlines, climbed 13 percent, to $13.41.
For consumers, one or more airline mergers could mean reduced service in some areas and higher fares. Delays and other service lapses might also increase, at least temporarily, because of the difficulty of combining airlines.

Delta pilots signaled Wednesday, in a letter from their chairman, Lee Moak, that they might be willing to support a merger. “Consolidation may indeed be at our door,” Mr. Moak said in a letter to other pilots. “We do not oppose consolidation, and may even determine that consolidation is desirable.”

For pilots, relative seniority is paramount in mergers, and it appears Delta pilots may be only slightly junior, on average, to United’s pilots.

The merger of US Airways and America West Airlines, completed in 2005, has been rocky in part because US Airways pilots were vastly senior to America West pilots, and merging seniority lists has led to litigation and prevented the company from operating as a single airline.

Mr. Anderson, the Delta chief executive, in a memorandum promised workers in November: “We won’t enter into any transaction with another airline unless we have seniority protection for Delta people.”
 
airline workers demanding raises to compensate for the pay cuts in recent bankruptcies are all conspiring to snuff out the industry’s nascent recovery.

oh, and $100M to the top five folks at UAL has done nothing but help the "nascent recovery"...
https://crewroom.alpa.org/ualunity/Default.aspx?tabid=2854

“What we were doing is trying to make something that is civilized,” said Gordon M. Bethune, a former Continental Airlines chief executive

$50M golden parachute...now that's civilized.
 
Do you want to bet that Pardus will pay Bethune a success fee if the DAL/UAL merger goes through? This is complete BUNK. Everyone knows it.

The fact that the DAL CEO is former NWA should help him (and the board) decide because he is already familiar with the operation. Why take on a HUGE CHALLENGE like UAL which has stunted growth and very-low morale employees? NWA is in better shape than UAL and it still provides the coveted Asian routes - plus, there ain't the same amount of hub overlap with DAL/NWA. That means fewer layoffs and fewer political issues. Congressman Oberstar is from Minnesota I believe and he would want to see a stronger company to protect Minnesota jobs - right?

Meanwhile, the entire situation is moot because the DOJ could easily nix any deal. Why would they want a reduction in consumer choice? You could argue that allowing two legacies to merge could be a strategic disadvantage to others - so, you would have other pairings. Fewer legacies means less consumer choice and Congress (especially a Democratic Congress) would not be too pleased. This is FAR FROM A SAFE BET. The stock analysts and financial media are having fun with the situation though... Plus, Bethune is probably making a mint off his Pardus consulting contract.
 
The DOJ could nix any deal, but probably not. Much larger mergers in other industries have been allowed to take place in recent years, that would never have been allowed 10+ years ago. And with the debt the airlines have, the minimal profits they've finally made, the looming recession, and the record price of jet fuel threatening a very important industry to the economy. I think almost any merger presented will be able to get DOJ approval. Sure there will be some senators blowing off about consumer choice, but that won't amount to much. Just my 2 cents.
 
What I find amazing is that Pardus/Bethune seem to think that a DL/UAL merger would leave all hubs in place, and thus keep regulators and unions happy.

How does IAD/DIA not conflict with JFK/ATL/SLC? There is so much duplication there it's ridiculous. Where is the synergy and productivity without closing some of those hubs?

:pimp:​
 
My guess is that Bethune, Pardus want a DAL/UAL because it would do just that, cut alot of fat off. They want to maximise returns on their investments at the cost of lost jobs and less capacity. They probably feel that a DAL/NWA deal would not go far enough. Very sad but I'll bet that's their line of thinking.
 
I agree with you guys, how big would that company be? 15,000 pilots on the seniority list with a DAL/UAUA merger.
 
Low Cur - United is for sale in pieces. A "salvage sale" might be the right way to charaterize it. There is no indication Delta would want, or buy, all of United. If such a deal were to take place for certain assets, the deal itself would not result in any closures, but would further erode the long term potential for United.

United has some of the best employees in the business. Unfortunately they have been managed by a team with no long term interest in the company.

That seems to be a trend other companies are following as well. After bankruptcy there is no shame. The people running the show are the dealmakers.

Grinstein had personal pride in his legacy. Of course, he is now gone.

Pardus could not care less about the political fall out. They are the first to say that they are not in this game to make friends.
 
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My guess is that Bethune, Pardus want a DAL/UAL because it would do just that, cut alot of fat off. They want to maximise returns on their investments at the cost of lost jobs and less capacity. They probably feel that a DAL/NWA deal would not go far enough. Very sad but I'll bet that's their line of thinking.


No, They own shares in both of those companies and would make a ton of money in a short amount of time. They don't want DAL/NWA because they don't have any stake in NWA and would make less money from the deal.
 
It's interesting to speculate and hear different opinions because we hall have a major stake in whatever happens. Fins, this seems to be the most logical course even though DAL/NWA would probably be a powerhouse. A DAL merger with UAL, in my opinion, would be for the Asia flying and piece out the UAL domestic flying. Bad for UAL pilots, I hope it doesn't play out this way. I'm a good predictor of the obvious, huh?

Low Cur - United is for sale in pieces. A "salvage sale" might be the right way to charaterize it. There is no indication Delta would want, or buy, all of United. If such a deal were to take place for certain assets, the deal itself would not result in any closures, but would further erode the long term potential for United.

United has some of the best employees in the business. Unfortunately they have been managed by a team with no long term interest in the company.

That seems to be a trend other companies are following as well. After bankruptcy there is no shame. The people running the show are the dealmakers.

Grinstein had personal pride in his legacy. Of course, he is now gone.

Pardus could not care less about the political fall out. They are the first to say that they are not in this game to make friends.
 
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MJ42 - A little off topic, but can you tell us where a new hire at NWA goes? I'm hearing panel on a 747 out of ANC, Compass and other odd options. I thought a Airbus or DC-9 out of DTW or MSP would be a likely first assignment.

How long to hold the 767/757? Is it true that is up around 11 years?

If Compass, is it the left seat of the E170?

Sorry - I'm full of questions.... to tie this back to the thread, just how messy?
 
I'm not in class yet but from what I understand most new hires are getting DC-9 in DTW or MEM. MSP as a new hire is doubtful. Seems the junior people in class may get SO in ANC, don't know how many more openings to fill in ANC. 320 is unlikely as a new hire but maybe able to hold within the 1st year. I don't know anything about Compass hiring, just that there is a flowback if things go bad.

Probably several years to hold 757 don't know if 11yrs is accurate or not.

MJ42 - A little off topic, but can you tell us where a new hire at NWA goes? I'm hearing panel on a 747 out of ANC, Compass and other odd options. I thought a Airbus or DC-9 out of DTW or MSP would be a likely first assignment.

How long to hold the 767/757? Is it true that is up around 11 years?

If Compass, is it the left seat of the E170?

Sorry - I'm full of questions.... to tie this back to the thread, just how messy?
 
No one to compost. That will only happen when the retrencment starts. I believe all newhires have been going to the 9 with a few to anc. There are at least 3 newhires who were trained on the 9 and received a award for 320 and are in training. One flew the 9 for 1 month and I believe the others about the same. I have not looked at the pref-ups lately but will bet if the hiring continues we will see newhires to the 320/757 reserve.
 
Why DAL/UAL?

ORD, DEN & SFO

That's why.

Close SLC (or make it a focus city) and CVG.

NWA would fit with CAL. Close CLE and you're set.

AMR would take some of the Asia routes they'd have to spin off to pacify the regulators (who would protest the NWAsia/Air Mic "conflict").TC
 
Low Cur - United is for sale in pieces. A "salvage sale" might be the right way to charaterize it. There is no indication Delta would want, or buy, all of United. If such a deal were to take place for certain assets, the deal itself would not result in any closures, but would further erode the long term potential for United. So you are hearing that UAL would remain a domestic/Atlantic market, and sell off their Asian routes? Does not the partial dismemberment of UAL have antitrust ramifications, along with a boatload of union problems?

United has some of the best employees in the business. Unfortunately they have been managed by a team with no long term interest in the company. Agree.

That seems to be a trend other companies are following as well. After bankruptcy there is no shame. The people running the show are the dealmakers.

Grinstein had personal pride in his legacy. Of course, he is now gone.

Pardus could not care less about the political fall out. They are the first to say that they are not in this game to make friends.
I would have trouble believing that DL could get approval for the purchase of the Asian routes, because it's a death knell for UAL. I would imagine CAL would also like a chance to bid, if that's the case. If this is indeed the approach that Pardus thinks will work....good luck.

:pimp:​
 
Why DAL/UAL?

ORD, DEN & SFO

That's why.

Close SLC (or make it a focus city) and CVG.

NWA would fit with CAL. Close CLE and you're set.

AMR would take some of the Asia routes they'd have to spin off to pacify the regulators (who would protest the NWAsia/Air Mic "conflict").TC
But, Pardus is advocating not going the NWA route as it would involve closing CVG and MEM. They think this would somehow present regulation and union problems. How is the closing or SLC and CVG any different?

:pimp:​
 
Lowcur:

You're getting the picture. Everything I have heard about UAL internally has been parts, not the whole. Remember the Pan Am guys came out pretty good when Delta bought that part of PAA... and yes, the union did have issues which forced them to mortgage their offices in Herndon to fund the settlement with some PAA pilots who did not make it on the Delta life raft.

UAUA management will only be too happy to say the sale of the Pacific to Delta is a "good thing needed for the survival of the Company" if it gives them a opportunity to cash out.

If this happens, I would expect Delta to take employees with airplanes.
 
No one to compost. That will only happen when the retrencment starts. I believe all newhires have been going to the 9 with a few to anc. There are at least 3 newhires who were trained on the 9 and received a award for 320 and are in training. One flew the 9 for 1 month and I believe the others about the same. I have not looked at the pref-ups lately but will bet if the hiring continues we will see newhires to the 320/757 reserve.
Cobra - Thank you Sir. That is better and sounds more realistic than the static I had heard.
 
757 F/O reserve bid lists show 2001 hires being awarded to next APA. There also is only 23 left bidding it in MSP and DTW so new hires could go to the 757 next year but think others may pref it soon. Much higher probability that many new hires will be going to the -320.
 
Lowcur:

You're getting the picture. Everything I have heard about UAL internally has been parts, not the whole. Remember the Pan Am guys came out pretty good when Delta bought that part of PAA... and yes, the union did have issues which forced them to mortgage their offices in Herndon to fund the settlement with some PAA pilots who did not make it on the Delta life raft.

UAUA management will only be too happy to say the sale of the Pacific to Delta is a "good thing needed for the survival of the Company" if it gives them a opportunity to cash out. I would have a hard time believing they could present enough financial evidence that this scenerio is viable for their survival.

If this happens, I would expect Delta to take employees with airplanes.
The only other thing that makes sense is NWA picking up the remainder of UAL, and CAL, AMR, and US would slowly disappear. This kind of a deal would never make it past regulators.

:pimp:​
 
Why DAL/UAL?

ORD, DEN & SFO

That's why.

Close SLC (or make it a focus city) and CVG.

NWA would fit with CAL. Close CLE and you're set.

AMR would take some of the Asia routes they'd have to spin off to pacify the regulators (who would protest the NWAsia/Air Mic "conflict").TC

Nah, DL should merge with NWA and keep all of the hubs, and just downsize MEM and CVG to focus cities. Throw UA and CAL together, and there would be some hub closures and financial chaos due to UA's poor financial health and lack of adequate restructuring in BK. Why give CAL and NWA the ability to be the biggest with the best balance sheet, when DL/NWA would do that and saddle the new CAL with huge debt? Sounds like a better plan, and the Skyteam membership would like it better anyway. Gotta remember that Air France is Delta's buddy overseas, and Air France owns KLM, which is NWA's buddy in AMS.

Bye Bye--General Lee
 
Why not close DEN and keep SLC??? Discuss....
 
But, Pardus is advocating not going the NWA route as it would involve closing CVG and MEM. They think this would somehow present regulation and union problems. How is the closing or SLC and CVG any different?


:pimp:​

Denver is a larger city with a larger encatchment area (COS and PUB to the South, Cheyenne to the North), but it is currently entrenched in a war with Southwest and Frontier attacking United. SLC is a Mormon enclave with great skiing on the side. SLC does give Delta some modest competition through Southwest, but there is limited growth potential due to lack of gates. Delta has been able to fortify the SLC hub, whereas United has not.

I think SLC and the Mormon church would be all over the wrong merger if it meant them losing their upcoming SLC--CDG connection (connects to Air France's huge network in CDG--a Skyteam member). If Delta left SLC I think some LCCs would flood in, not giving them the depth of coverage to all the big and small cities (Montana) Delta does. I don't know if Openskies would provide the same flights to Europe, since Delta pools pax from all over the Northwest through good feed to feed the upcoming flight, although Lufthansa does fly from Portland to Frankfurt nonstop, so anything is possible....


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
Considerably less. MSP 757 reserve just went to someone with a hire date of 08/01 (recent recall), and MSP blockholder went to someone with a hire date of 01/99.
General, there's your upgrade.
 
So no one thinks Delta would want a massive ORD hub and a real West Coast operation (as opposed to the "mini-me" LAX op...)?

DEN has tons more O&D than SLC could ever dream of. Look at the catchment area.

I guess it would be better to inherit a MSP and DTW hub (keeps everything close to the mothership in ATL) than to jump into a turnkey operation in several large metro areas spread out across the country.

(Agreeing so as to not engage in yet another pointless discussion regarding Delta on FI.)

TC
 
So no one thinks Delta would want a massive ORD hub and a real West Coast operation (as opposed to the "mini-me" LAX op...)?

DEN has tons more O&D than SLC could ever dream of. Look at the catchment area.

I guess it would be better to inherit a MSP and DTW hub (keeps everything close to the mothership in ATL) than to jump into a turnkey operation in several large metro areas spread out across the country.

(Agreeing so as to not engage in yet another pointless discussion regarding Delta on FI.)

TC

You are right, DEN does have more O&D, but the United hub is under attack and will cost more to defend. The good thing about MSP and DTW is that Northwest has done a good job of keeping out large LCCs to some extent. Airtran serves both, but to a small degree, and Southwest has a small presence in DTW. The LCCs that are based or have bases at those hubs are Spirit at DTW, and Sun Country at MSP. Both of those are not large threats to NWA dominance. Delta has Airtran in ATL, but the fall of Eastern lead to Valuejet eventually, and then Airtran. Somebody was going to fill in for Eastern eventually. Notice how Delta does not really fight Southwest head to head very often (except SLC). That would change if we merged with UAL, since UAL deals with Southwest at every one of the major hubs. (that could all change if Southwest buys Airtran)


Bye Bye--General Lee
 
General, there's your upgrade.

There will NOT be a DOH merger. Nope. We lost our top 2000 guys before the BK, which would put us at a huge disadvantage. Expect a percentage type merger, which means if you are in the top 5% of a company, you would be in the top 5% of a merged company. That is fair, and no windfall happens for NWA--part of the ALPA merger policy. Sure, there would be fences, but no DOH. No way. If I am in the top 50% of Delta, wouldn't that mean a left seat in the top 50% of a merged company? Probably. We shall see....

Bye Bye--General Lee
 
There will NOT be a DOH merger. Nope. We lost our top 2000 guys before the BK, which would put us at a huge disadvantage. Expect a percentage type merger,


I wouldn't expect a percentage either. It will be relative seniority, widebody captains integrated with wide body captains, narrowbody captains with narrowbody captains, and so on. There will be some adjustments to that to account for retirements, aircraft orders, etc, but I don't think it would stray far from that.
 

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