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NY Times reports Pardus/Bethune think NWA too messy

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lowecur

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Sep 14, 2003
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Looks like even though a DL/NWA consolidation would save $1.5B through the closing of CVG/MEM, Pardus/Bethune think a DL/UAL deal(savings of approx $600M) would face less opposition from regulators.

Gee, I wonder if they have a higher vested interest in that choice?

:pimp:​

January 11, 2008

Delta Executives Consider Merger Talks

By JEFF BAILEY

Executives of Delta Air Lines, facing increasingly grim economic conditions, plan to ask the carrier’s directors on Friday for permission to engage in merger discussions with United Airlines and Northwest Airlines, a step that could push the industry’s much-talked-about need to consolidate closer to reality.
Oil at nearly $100 a barrel, a slowing economy and airline workers demanding raises to compensate for the pay cuts in recent bankruptcies are all conspiring to snuff out the industry’s nascent recovery. That has executives and investors looking at possible mergers as a way to cut costs and stay profitable.
News of the proposal to Delta’s board sent airline stocks soaring.

But mergers are highly risky in the airline business. Complex old computer systems do not mesh easily. Political opposition can crop up when service to a city or state is threatened with cuts. And labor unions — crucial to providing good service and a smooth operation — can effectively torpedo a deal if they choose.

Despite all that, the likelihood of a major deal appears more probable than it did last year because the cost of doing nothing could be another round of big losses, and even bankruptcies.

Big airlines remain deeply in debt, and revenue could decline sharply in a recession.

Delta was urged in November by a large shareholder, Pardus Capital Management, to seek a merger with United. Pardus argued the two carriers would save $585 million a year by combining. Pardus said a merger with Northwest could save $1.5 billion a year, largely by shutting two hubs.

The most likely candidates would be the Memphis operation of Northwest and the Cincinnati operation of Delta. But doing that inevitably would attract political and union opposition. Thus, Pardus favored a deal with United.

“What we were doing is trying to make something that is civilized,” said Gordon M. Bethune, a former Continental Airlines chief executive who is advising Pardus.

Delta, led by its new chief executive, Richard H. Anderson, and a special board committee, has been studying possible combinations with other airlines.
A person close to the situation Thursday confirmed that Mr. Anderson would be asking directors for approval to proceed into direct talks with United, operated by UAL, and Northwest. The proposal to directors was reported Thursday by The Wall Street Journal on its Web site.

Delta, United and Northwest all declined comment.
If the Delta board consents to merger discussions, any deal could still take months to work out and talks could easily fall apart.

Airline industry executives generally assume that both United’s chief executive, Glenn F. Tilton, and Northwest’s, Douglas M. Steenland, want to sell their companies.

Shares of Northwest leapt 32 percent on the news, to $15.85; United rose 24 percent, to $32.29; and Delta jumped 18 percent, to $15.98.

Shares of other big carriers rose as well, as investors anticipated a possible industry realignment.

Continental rose 24 percent, to $23.25. US Airways rose 15 percent, to $12.55. AMR, the parent of American Airlines, climbed 13 percent, to $13.41.
For consumers, one or more airline mergers could mean reduced service in some areas and higher fares. Delays and other service lapses might also increase, at least temporarily, because of the difficulty of combining airlines.

Delta pilots signaled Wednesday, in a letter from their chairman, Lee Moak, that they might be willing to support a merger. “Consolidation may indeed be at our door,” Mr. Moak said in a letter to other pilots. “We do not oppose consolidation, and may even determine that consolidation is desirable.”

For pilots, relative seniority is paramount in mergers, and it appears Delta pilots may be only slightly junior, on average, to United’s pilots.

The merger of US Airways and America West Airlines, completed in 2005, has been rocky in part because US Airways pilots were vastly senior to America West pilots, and merging seniority lists has led to litigation and prevented the company from operating as a single airline.

Mr. Anderson, the Delta chief executive, in a memorandum promised workers in November: “We won’t enter into any transaction with another airline unless we have seniority protection for Delta people.”
 
airline workers demanding raises to compensate for the pay cuts in recent bankruptcies are all conspiring to snuff out the industry’s nascent recovery.

oh, and $100M to the top five folks at UAL has done nothing but help the "nascent recovery"...
https://crewroom.alpa.org/ualunity/Default.aspx?tabid=2854

“What we were doing is trying to make something that is civilized,” said Gordon M. Bethune, a former Continental Airlines chief executive

$50M golden parachute...now that's civilized.
 
Do you want to bet that Pardus will pay Bethune a success fee if the DAL/UAL merger goes through? This is complete BUNK. Everyone knows it.

The fact that the DAL CEO is former NWA should help him (and the board) decide because he is already familiar with the operation. Why take on a HUGE CHALLENGE like UAL which has stunted growth and very-low morale employees? NWA is in better shape than UAL and it still provides the coveted Asian routes - plus, there ain't the same amount of hub overlap with DAL/NWA. That means fewer layoffs and fewer political issues. Congressman Oberstar is from Minnesota I believe and he would want to see a stronger company to protect Minnesota jobs - right?

Meanwhile, the entire situation is moot because the DOJ could easily nix any deal. Why would they want a reduction in consumer choice? You could argue that allowing two legacies to merge could be a strategic disadvantage to others - so, you would have other pairings. Fewer legacies means less consumer choice and Congress (especially a Democratic Congress) would not be too pleased. This is FAR FROM A SAFE BET. The stock analysts and financial media are having fun with the situation though... Plus, Bethune is probably making a mint off his Pardus consulting contract.
 
The DOJ could nix any deal, but probably not. Much larger mergers in other industries have been allowed to take place in recent years, that would never have been allowed 10+ years ago. And with the debt the airlines have, the minimal profits they've finally made, the looming recession, and the record price of jet fuel threatening a very important industry to the economy. I think almost any merger presented will be able to get DOJ approval. Sure there will be some senators blowing off about consumer choice, but that won't amount to much. Just my 2 cents.
 
What I find amazing is that Pardus/Bethune seem to think that a DL/UAL merger would leave all hubs in place, and thus keep regulators and unions happy.

How does IAD/DIA not conflict with JFK/ATL/SLC? There is so much duplication there it's ridiculous. Where is the synergy and productivity without closing some of those hubs?

:pimp:​
 
My guess is that Bethune, Pardus want a DAL/UAL because it would do just that, cut alot of fat off. They want to maximise returns on their investments at the cost of lost jobs and less capacity. They probably feel that a DAL/NWA deal would not go far enough. Very sad but I'll bet that's their line of thinking.
 
I agree with you guys, how big would that company be? 15,000 pilots on the seniority list with a DAL/UAUA merger.
 
Low Cur - United is for sale in pieces. A "salvage sale" might be the right way to charaterize it. There is no indication Delta would want, or buy, all of United. If such a deal were to take place for certain assets, the deal itself would not result in any closures, but would further erode the long term potential for United.

United has some of the best employees in the business. Unfortunately they have been managed by a team with no long term interest in the company.

That seems to be a trend other companies are following as well. After bankruptcy there is no shame. The people running the show are the dealmakers.

Grinstein had personal pride in his legacy. Of course, he is now gone.

Pardus could not care less about the political fall out. They are the first to say that they are not in this game to make friends.
 
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My guess is that Bethune, Pardus want a DAL/UAL because it would do just that, cut alot of fat off. They want to maximise returns on their investments at the cost of lost jobs and less capacity. They probably feel that a DAL/NWA deal would not go far enough. Very sad but I'll bet that's their line of thinking.


No, They own shares in both of those companies and would make a ton of money in a short amount of time. They don't want DAL/NWA because they don't have any stake in NWA and would make less money from the deal.
 
It's interesting to speculate and hear different opinions because we hall have a major stake in whatever happens. Fins, this seems to be the most logical course even though DAL/NWA would probably be a powerhouse. A DAL merger with UAL, in my opinion, would be for the Asia flying and piece out the UAL domestic flying. Bad for UAL pilots, I hope it doesn't play out this way. I'm a good predictor of the obvious, huh?

Low Cur - United is for sale in pieces. A "salvage sale" might be the right way to charaterize it. There is no indication Delta would want, or buy, all of United. If such a deal were to take place for certain assets, the deal itself would not result in any closures, but would further erode the long term potential for United.

United has some of the best employees in the business. Unfortunately they have been managed by a team with no long term interest in the company.

That seems to be a trend other companies are following as well. After bankruptcy there is no shame. The people running the show are the dealmakers.

Grinstein had personal pride in his legacy. Of course, he is now gone.

Pardus could not care less about the political fall out. They are the first to say that they are not in this game to make friends.
 
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