I respectfully disagree: Yes you can--the east's age 60 (or age 65 if it changes) attrition is absolutely quantifiable and known. Those 200+ per year attrition slots were age-related (whether it be 60 or 65) and will happen.
And still account for all the variables that affect the industry, I doubt it. Anyway you got the top 517 spots and a fence, sounds to me like you got some protection.
Your MEC chairman with his stuborne call for DOH and nothing less tried to go for the whole Enchilada and lost! perhaps a more reasonable position might have kept it out of the arbitrators hands.