SKYkid
I don't really see that happening. IMHO what you will see is grandfathering. At many large fortune 100 companies like IBM and Time Warner, they have grandfathered the employees on the property with the traditional retirement programs. Then any new employees hired after X date are enrolled in the new 401k, non defined benifit plans. Large union labor controlled companies like GM can't just tell the UAW that they are no longer going to fund their retirements, "here's your new plan". But they can offer an alternative that will effect only future employees. Could UAL have dropped their pensions on the PBGC back in 2000?
What congress and the senate are trying to do is having to avoid a federal bail out of the PBGC. You may feel that the bill passed by congress has no teeth, that's your opinion. From the take of the Morningstar author I get the feeling it has teeth, he even go so far as to mention the 10/2005 date when the bill would become law. We will have to wait and see. MY guess is that the congress and the senate will pass the bill. What are the options? Every company in the US would/could transfer their pension liabilities to the PBGC? I don't think so. If they don't pass the law, how long do you think it would take before NWA, DAL, AA, GM, Ford, yada yada dumped their plans too?
Your take on the revenue generated by UAL is not valid becasue, their is a finite number of passengers and if UAL is not there, those pax and their tax revenue will just shift to a different carrier. If GM dies tomorrow people will not stop driving or buying cars. IF UAL goes away tomorrow people will not stop flying. The jobs transfer to a different company (toyota in kentucky, BMW in GSP, Hundai in AL). The only thing that changes is the name on the top of the paycheck. The tax revenue will just come from a different carrier/company. In fact one could argue that letting the financialy viable companies prosper without the burden of the industry having to support the UAL and USAir's of the world would be in everyones best interest. Not the other way around