United and Continental Talking....

[Patriot328]

ALPA merger policy once included DOH and length of service criteria. It's been "refined" over the years. With NWA/REP they added a career expectations metric. DOH is very simple, keeping it simple drives the sharks nuts and that's a good thing. The airlines have similiar fundamentals, it's not entirely inappropriate to suggest we skip arbitration and take a look at some version of DOH. We have to ask ourselves: what kind of airline do we want on the other side of this deal? By all accounts, the combination of these two airlines is supposed to be a VERY lucrative business. Do we want to screw it up and make it like NWA?

I suppose you could pick the date you want to use.

Easy for you to say DOH when your DOH doesn't mean the difference between being a captain and being furloughed.

Around 1000 pilots, about 22% of the workforce, have been hired at CAL since UAL last hired in '01.

'01 CAs from CAL would be behind every pilot on UAL's seniority list if it were done DOH.


Maybe some sort of % based integration....

 

[ualdriver]

Flopgut, I agree with you that this could be a VERY lucrative deal if a UAL/CAL went through. This combined airline would either be one of the most powerful airlines on the planet, if not THE most powerful. What kind of airline do we pilots want when we come out of the other end of the merger chute? I personally think this deal will happen at some point. And I think the true "golden "share" owners at NWA can be bought off.

If this deal goes down, I'm a UAL guy and I DO NOT WANT TO SEE MY CAL BROTHERS SCREWED (except the scabs ). I'm a UAL guy and I DO NOT WANT TO SEE MY UAL BROTHERS SCREWED (except the scabs ). If both groups could look at the messes that have happened at TWA/AA, NWA/Republic, etc., and actually go in with the attitude of not trying to screw each other over, I think we could come out with a pretty "fair" deal where both sides might actually serve as an example as to how an ALPA merger should happen. Then again, maybe I'm incredibly naive

 

[Andy]

Easy for you to say DOH when your DOH doesn't mean the difference between being a captain and being furloughed.

Around 1000 pilots, about 22% of the workforce, have been hired at CAL since UAL last hired in '01.

'01 CAs from CAL would be behind every pilot on UAL's seniority list if it were done DOH.

Point very well taken. I hope that my brethren at United understand the point that you are making here. Feels like deja vu all over again, except UAL is in a different position relative to the merger partner.
Relative seniority would be a much more reasonable method. But, as has already been pointed out on this thread my myself and others, I DO NOT represent my fellow United pilots.

And gents, no matter what side you're on, don't lose any sleep over this. I lost a lot of sleep over the aborted UAL/U merge. Turned out to be a wasted effort.

 

[Andy]

And I think the true "golden "share" owners at NWA can be bought off.

I'd say that due to NWA declaring chap 11 reorganization, the golden share no longer exists. The big question is ... what will it take to get UAL management to step aside and let the combined operation be run by one of the best managements in the biz.

 

[CAL EWR B737]

Which leadership change were you talking about? The one last year or the one in this email I got today! (or the one next week or next month or next year):





I was talking about the new IAH reps to take office in March. Now combined with the EWR reps our two largest bases have very strong, forward looking reps who are not afraid to make tough aggressive decisions. I was suprised by the MEC officers annoucement and I respect their decision.

Back during the IACP days we had a very strong leadership but an inherently week union with little or no resoucres. Then we brought in ALPA and all of it's muscle and we elected weak leaders (Contract 02 disaster) supported by a ununifed membership.

Today we have for the first time ever, strong leadership, a solid union and a unified pilot group (because of all of our hiring and attrition). I look at recent events as extremely positive. The CAL pilots are now a force to be reackoned with.

Below is the text of an e-mail I just wrote to our out going MEC Officers.


Dave, Bob and Randy,

I was very surprised to read about your resignation. I understand your reasons and I thank you for your tireless service on behalf of the Continental pilots.

As some of you may know I was very vocal regarding my displeasure with the former MEC Officers. In no way shape or form do you resemble any of them in your leadership style and I believe you all did your very best to represent the Continental pilots .

What has impressed me the most and earned immense respect in my eyes is your decision to resign based on the fact you see a change in the wants in the aggressiveness type of leadership style from the CAL ALPA membership.

As I learned from my significant involvement in the ALPA/IACP merger process back in 2001. On top of the ALPA triangle is membership in the middle is the MEC and the bottom is the President. That is why the membership wears gold ALPA pins and the leadership wears pewter.

That fact that you all have unselfishly put the needs and wants of the membership over your personal needs are extremely admirable. I can say with confidence your predecessors never ever thought this way.

Thank you for your service and dedication to our pilot group. I wish you a and your families a safe and happy holiday season.


Fraternally,


Jayson Baron

 

[Daddy]

I'd say that due to NWA declaring chap 11 reorganization, the golden share no longer exists. The big question is ... what will it take to get UAL management to step aside and let the combined operation be run by one of the best managements in the biz.

Andy,
I tend to agree with you...I don't know why they would retain those voting rights in BK, but CNBC is reporting that they have it...I wonder if the creditors will be able to dictate their votes though....

 

[Occam's Razor]

I tend to agree with you...I don't know why they would retain those voting rights in BK, but CNBC is reporting that they have it...I wonder if the creditors will be able to dictate their votes though....

C'mon! Get real. A brief excerpt from one of 3-dozen SEC filings was posted on flightinfo where it's been analyzed by corporate governance experts.

Case closed.

Now let's get back to the cover-up of TWA 800, airplanes taking off on treadmills, and how badly we want to screw each other in a merger.

 

[Flopgut]

Patriot:

Is 01 CAL CA a real number? Or is it more of an indicator of how bad reserve is? I know ther ARE CAs with that DOH but, compare it with lineholder seniority. Furthermore, does the 01 CAL CA want to be a 2011 757 CA? Or a 2021 777 CA with a line of time? Because if we act too tough on the bottom CA seniority then UAL is going to get real tough on the widebody flying. And they will clean our plow on that.

We could exceed an unlimited budget, take years of arbitration, make a bunch of lawyers ridiculously wealthy, and if things go absolutely perfect, have a resulting combined list that looks very close to DOH with a possible wiggle on years of service. Not before we hate each other, disenfranchise the customers, disgust Wall Street, and all manner of other detriments.

Why not do this: DOH, with adjustment for years of service, no furlough clause for CAL, UAL furloughs return and bid new composite seniority number until hiring starts. And substantial hiring will start quickly IMHO, probably within a quarter. And we all enjoy the spoils of a great airline job going forward.

To a certain extent, we ALL have to view this kind of like a start up.

 

[LJDRVR]

If this deal goes down, I'm a UAL guy and I DO NOT WANT TO SEE MY CAL BROTHERS SCREWED (except the scabs ). I'm a UAL guy and I DO NOT WANT TO SEE MY UAL BROTHERS SCREWED (except the scabs ).

I agree. Hey! How about stapling the SCABS from both airlines?

I still think this is so much irresponsible media-driven hperbole. The sole ource for these news reports are still the WSJ online edition's claim of persons familiar with the situation.

 

[fatboyplt]

Flopgut,
Well put...

Birdman
BTV

 

[Tejas-Jet]

I don't see Southwest flying to Brussels anytime soon.

Thank goodness to that !!! With a 3.0 "arse", That would absolutely kill me....

Tejas

 

[Andy]

Is 01 CAL CA a real number? Or is it more of an indicator of how bad reserve is?

The 01 CAL CA is about 1/3 up the seniority list. We had two year CAs at UAL back in 2000.

 

[Patriot328]

Patriot:

Is 01 CAL CA a real number? Or is it more of an indicator of how bad reserve is? I know ther ARE CAs with that DOH but, compare it with lineholder seniority. Furthermore, does the 01 CAL CA want to be a 2011 757 CA? Or a 2021 777 CA with a line of time? Because if we act too tough on the bottom CA seniority then UAL is going to get real tough on the widebody flying. And they will clean our plow on that.

We could exceed an unlimited budget, take years of arbitration, make a bunch of lawyers ridiculously wealthy, and if things go absolutely perfect, have a resulting combined list that looks very close to DOH with a possible wiggle on years of service. Not before we hate each other, disenfranchise the customers, disgust Wall Street, and all manner of other detriments.

Why not do this: DOH, with adjustment for years of service, no furlough clause for CAL, UAL furloughs return and bid new composite seniority number until hiring starts. And substantial hiring will start quickly IMHO, probably within a quarter. And we all enjoy the spoils of a great airline job going forward.

To a certain extent, we ALL have to view this kind of like a start up.

It doesn't matter why there are '01 DOH CAs here (RSV sucks and for god sake, we're talking Newark here), doing a DOH (or even a quasi DOH with wiggle room) would be screwing over a solid 25% of CAL's seniority list.

DOH and I go from about 4200 out of 4800, which is the bottom 13% and moving up very rapidly due to 5-6% of the pilots retiring each year, to 12900 out of 13500, which is the bottom 4% of the combine seniority list of an airline whose pilots are retiring at 2.5% a year. Double the size, half the retirement rate.. sounds like a great plan.

 

[Andy]

DOH and I go from about 4200 out of 4800, which is the bottom 13% and moving up very rapidly due to 5-6% of the pilots retiring each year, to 12900 out of 13500, which is the bottom 4% of the combine seniority list of an airline whose pilots are retiring at 2.5% a year. Double the size, half the retirement rate.. sounds like a great plan.

UAL's seniority list in Jul 06 had 8655. Subtract 655 for those that will never return from furlough.
2006 141 = 1.8% Jul-Dec 06
2007 263 = 3.3%
2008 234 = 2.9%
2009 231 = 2.9%
2010 201 = 2.5%
2011 167 = 2.1%
2012 228 = 2.9%
2013 245 = 3.1%
2014 237 = 2.9%
2015 270 = 3.4%
2016 331 = 4.1%
2017 307 = 3.8%
2018 381 = 4.8%
2019 355 = 4.4%
2020 463 = 5.8%
2021 506 = 6.3%
2022 506 = 6.3%
2023 575 = 7.2%
2024 574 = 7.2%
2025 538 = 6.7%

CAL, percentages assume 4800 on property
2007: 313 = 6.5%
2008: 241 = 5.0%
2009: 215 = 4.5%
2010: 209 = 4.4%
2011: 218 = 4.5%
2012: 218 = 4.5%
2013: 191 = 4.0%
2014: 202 = 4.2%
2015: 171 = 3.6%
2016: 189 = 3.9%
2017: 180 = 3.8%
2018: 179 = 3.7%
2019: 151 = 3.1%
2020: 146 = 3.0%
2021: 151 = 3.1%
2022: 150 = 3.1%
2023: 178 = 3.7%
2024: 125 = 2.6%
2025: 135 = 2.8%

Let's suppose that the merger were announced tomorrow. It would likely not be until 2009 (at the earliest) before we saw seniority lists integrated.
Year UAL CAL
2009 2.9% 4.5%
2010 2.5% 4.4%
2011 2.1% 4.5%
2012 2.9% 4.5%
2013 3.1% 4.0%
2014 2.9% 4.2%
2015 3.4% 3.6%
2016 4.1% 3.9%
2017 3.8% 3.8%
2018 4.8% 3.7%
2019 4.4% 3.1%
2020 5.8% 3.0%
2021 6.3% 3.1%
2022 6.3% 3.1%
2023 7.2% 3.7%
2024 7.2% 2.6%
2025 6.7% 2.8%

 

[Patriot328]

......

Thank you for the numbers Andy. Must more precise than my eyeballing it. Looks like CAL's retirements (and seniority movement) are frontloaded while UAL's are farther down the line, to some degree. 2016 seems to be the turning point.