United has for the most part just stayed United. CAL on the other hand is a mix of all different backgrounds.
And this is going to make all the difference. When each side hires the best experts they can to crunch the "career expectations" numbers and present them to the neutral party, from what I've seen at CAL, I just don't think CAL can go toe-to-toe with UAL in this scenario and get any kind of a fair deal.
Heck, CAL pilots have had how many changes of leadership (union and otherwise) in the pilot group in the past 10 years? They can't even get it together and stabilized within the pilot group, much less get an equal shake vs management in the last contract, or a fair deal vs UAL ALPA. Just last week a new LEC was voted in at IAH. Nothing is settled at CAL.
UAL ALPA won't be looking for a "fair deal" and they shouldn't. They will come to the table with the most expensive, professional, cut-throat group of dispassionate representatives they can hire to get the absolute most they can. Unless CAL looks at it that way too so that the neutral party can reach a fair compromise, the compromise will be all CAL's.