United and Continental Talking....

[Flopgut]

CAL retires:

05: 159
06: 250
07: 320
08: 245
09: 217
10: 209
11: 219
12: 220
13: 195
14: 203
15: 170
16-20: 848
20-25: 743

 

[Andy]

Frankly, it would be nice to merge all three (NWA/UAL/CAL).

That would be too much overlap in the Pacific.

AWA/USAirways was a good fit.
UAL/CAL is a good fit.
NWA/DAL is a good fit.

I don't see a UAL/CAL merger happening unless NWA merges and gives up its veto power over any CAL merge.

 

[RocketRob]

Here's what I could find for CAL's retirement numbers

2007: 313
2008: 241
2009: 215
2010: 209
2011: 218
2012: 218
2013: 191
2014: 202
2015: 171
2016: 189
2017: 180
2018: 179
2019: 151
2020: 146
2021: 151
2022: 150
2023: 178
2024: 125
2025: 135
2026: 103
2027: 82
2028: 88
2029: 85
2030: 58
2031: 29
2032: 19
2033: 8

as one can see, were in peak retirement mode in 2007 =)

 

[Flopgut]

That would be too much overlap in the Pacific.

AWA/USAirways was a good fit.
UAL/CAL is a good fit.
NWA/DAL is a good fit.

I don't see a UAL/CAL merger happening unless NWA merges and gives up its veto power over any CAL merge.

Yeah, I agree. I think the DOJ is a bigger stumbling block. If they would approve it, pay NWA whatever they want or bring them along. Can't hate any NWA guys; Good airline savagely demoralized. They are going to act pretty hard on this golden share thing (as they should), but I think the employees would sooner swap it for a new working reality than just use it to block something.

Occam: If seniority was honored, wouldn't you rather have new "weasels"?

 

[densoo]

Houston Chronicle, 13 Dec

Selected excerpts...

Any pairing involving Continental would likely require that Continental be the buyer, which would prevent Northwest from having a say.

The analyst said in an interview Tuesday that Continental "would make a tremendous partner with United if they could pull it off."

When it comes to a merger between Continental and United, one key is whether Tilton would take his "pile of non-cash compensation" and turn the airline over to Continental, King wrote in his recent report.

"Continental management is on a roll right now, so it is hard to imagine the board throwing its management team under the bus," he wrote.

Richard Rose, a shareholder at Buchanan Ingersoll, who focuses on mergers and acquisitions, said Tuesday that he would expect Delta and Northwest to get together before US Airways and Delta.

"I would think it would be an easy deal to accomplish," Rose said.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4398316.html

 

[Flopgut]

That would be too much overlap in the Pacific.

You know I think it would be a perfect set up in the Pacific. CAL has Guam, NWA has their setup, both with narrowbodies. Overlaid with a nice network of widebodies...

Would make a lot of money.

 

[On Your Six]

Strategically, mergers between UAL/CAL and DAL/NWA would both work well. Very little route overlap (very complementary for both combinations with Asia and Europe operations and little domestic hub overlap).

The key to these mergers would be route overlap that would ultimately reduce consumer choice. If you can show limited route overlap and stronger combinations with limited job loss resulting, then your chances improve. Airtran/Midwest has limited overlap and the combined airline would be stronger than the two individual players. In the end it's about scale economies (reducing unit costs through better asset utilization across a bigger route structure) and improving customer choice without reducing competition...

So, when should we expect a public Jet Blue/Frontier discussion?

 

[uba757]

But you have the same problem as US/DA with one company flying B737'sNG and the other the A320's. Which type are you going to make the work horse of the new UA/CAL? We are talking about hundreds of airplanes. UBA757

 

[minrest]

CAL operates over 120 737-300's and 500's. Integrating UAL 737's wouldn't be a big deal. I think that if I were Airbus I'd be a little nervous of losing some potential business as CAL has multiple Boeing orders in the books and no interest in Airbus products.

With the exception of different variants and engines, there really isn't anything in CAL's fleet that UAL doesn't already operate.

 

[densoo]

United:
A319
A320
B737
B747
B757
B767
B777


Continental:
B737
B757
B777

 

[Flopgut]

IMHO, we need to go one step past merger policy and preempt these mergers with an actual seniority list for every possible combination. Take the sting out of whatever mgt might try to use to divide us. Additionally, we should push for a national air transportation policy that can provide clear cut guidance for mergers instead of Congressional whim. For some reason, they seem to want to want to block the good business deals, and allow the bad ones?! We don't owe consumers any more than they have got! Airfares are cheap enough! All manner of bums and dregs are "now free to move about the country" while our profession has become the most provisional and vulnerable service one can provide. Enough.

ETA Prater: <3 weeks. Let's support him.

 

[AA717driver]

AA will take Air Mic... (Sound of Arpey pulling out his checkbook. ) TC

 

[On Your Six]

But you have the same problem as US/DA with one company flying B737'sNG and the other the A320's. Which type are you going to make the work horse of the new UA/CAL? We are talking about hundreds of airplanes. UBA757

Certainly not a small hurdle. Obviously fleet simplification would be a goal of any merger. I presume that some of these airframes will need to be retired at some point. The combined airline would probably look for a big deal from either Airbus or Boeing to replace a large chunk of the fleet over time. Boeing is considering a narrowbody replacement for the entire 737 line but it would not be available for the next 5+ years. That time frame could work.

I believe Kellner would be the ultimate CEO in this merger if it happened and he is a Boeing fan - so, I would expect Boeings in the long term.

 

[pkober]

AA717,

I like everyone saying that there will be no furloughes from this merger and that everything will work out fine. It worked out great for us at TWA.

I guess since ALPA thought it was okay for AA to integrate us via a 9:1 (or close to it) ratio we should expect the same if we (CAL) do the buying. Let's see, I've been here alittle over a year, so that should put me somewhere near 757 captain at the "new" airline. I would expect ALPA would have no problem with that since the bar was set there in 2001.

I hope this doesn't happen because it would be a huge brick wall to everyone recently (since May 2005) hired at CAL. We would have a senority number that looks like a zip code. Our upgrade would come to a sceetching halt.

"Serenity Now, Serenity Now"

 

[G4G5]

Can someone tell me what the deal is with NWA's power to void and CAL merger?