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FACT CHECK
Here are some of the claims that Dallas-based Southwest Airlines is making surrounding its proposal to introduce international air service out of Hobby, and the facts you should know.
CLAIM: Dallas-based Southwest’s proposal will create more than 10,000 jobs, add $1.6 billion to the Houston economy and generate more than 1.5 million more passengers per year.
THE FACTS: As the saying goes, “If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.” And that’s the case with the rushed, flawed study Dallas-based Southwest and the Houston Airport System (HAS) are using to make promises to Houston that many experts believe they won’t be able to keep. The study makes Hobby international service sound like a tremendous economic benefit to Houston and remarkably, even to IAH.
Meanwhile, other experts say the Southwest-HAS study is fatally flawed because it assumes unrealistically low fares. It relies on traffic stimulation and fare-reduction effects that are more than 20 years old, and that don’t reflect the current aviation industry. These flawed assumptions don’t take into account today’s skyrocketing fuel costs, which would substantially alter the analysis. It relies on this flawed data to justify claims that a policy change will stimulate more flying and create 10,000 jobs. That won’t happen. What will happen is serious damage to IAH, to the airlines that operate there, and to Houston.
A separate study — using more legitimate fuel- and fare-reduction data – was released on May 3, 2012, by United working in collaboration with Bill Swelbar of Massachusetts Institute of Technology's International Center for Air Transportation, and with regional economic impact analysis conducted by Dr. Barton Smith of the University of Houston. Read more about the
economic impact of dividing Houston’s international air service market.
CLAIM: Dallas-based Southwest’s proposal will be good for the Houston economy and for travelers.
THE FACTS: United, other airlines and the City of Houston have made significant investments over the years to build IAH airport into a world-class international gateway. These efforts have made Houston a great place to do business and have positioned our city as an increasingly important center of commerce. Today, IAH is strong and thriving – and so is Houston. That’s no coincidence.
If implemented, this proposal would weaken IAH and weaken Houston. It would reverse a longstanding, successful aviation policy wherein IAH, as Houston’s sole international airport, was able to grow to become a vibrant economic engine, where 16 airlines now fly to 183 destinations, including 68 international destinations in 32 countries on five continents. That longstanding policy ensures the millions of passengers connecting to international flights go to one airport, helping to fill the large planes necessary for airlines to fly economically to Asia, Europe and Africa, as well as to many important business markets throughout Mexico, Central and South America.
Splitting connecting international passengers between two airports will make flying to many locations too costly. Airlines will be forced to cut flights, to eliminate destinations and, worse, to slash jobs. In addition, it will result in wasteful spending to build a new Federal Inspection Services (FIS) facility at Hobby, and further strain already scarce Customs and Border Protection (CBP) resources.
Keeping IAH strong will keep Houston strong.
CLAIM: Houston can support two international airports.
THE FACTS: Not without creating long-term damage to the Houston economy in the process. On average, more than 65 percent of the passengers on flights departing from IAH are from a city other than Houston – they are connecting through Houston. To Mexico and Latin America, the average number of connecting passengers is even higher, about 75 percent. Because these millions of passengers connecting to international flights go to one airport, carriers are able to offer international flights from Houston that the local market alone could not support. Connecting passengers help to fill the large planes necessary to fly economically to Asia, Europe and Africa, as well as to many important business markets throughout Mexico, Central and South America. Splitting connecting international passengers between two airports will cause Houston to lose important international passenger traffic as connecting flights becomes less viable economically for airlines to maintain. Houston will then compete against itself rather than other gateway cities such as Dallas-Fort Worth and Atlanta, which protect their consolidated international airports.
CLAIM: Other metropolitan areas have experienced significant air service growth with multiple international airports.
THE FACTS: Performance in other markets such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington demonstrates that fractured markets remain flat while combined markets grow. In fact, studies show that, since 2008, cities with split international gateways actually lost airline service while cities with unified international gateways increased available international seats by 5 percent.
CLAIM: United is trying to limit fair competition in Houston.
THE FACTS: This isn’t about United vs. Southwest. It’s about Houston. Allowing international air service at Hobby will hurt Houston. It will mean fewer flights, lost jobs and wasted spending. And it will limit Houston’s ability to compete with other global gateways such as Dallas and Atlanta to generate economic growth and to create jobs.
Southwest once operated out of IAH and there is more than enough room for them to do so again. United and other airlines welcome Southwest – and other competitors – at IAH, where there are plenty of gates and facilities and an existing FIS facility.
United supports a competitive market in Houston. With 12 international carriers operating at IAH, Houston has a robust and competitive landscape. By contrast, Southwest has said they are unwilling to compete at IAH, and are instead asking to fly internationally from Hobby.
CLAIM: There’s no downside to Dallas-based Southwest’s proposal unless you’re United Airlines.
THE FACTS: On the contrary, international service at Hobby will have a net, materially adverse effect on the Houston economy. In fact, studies show that, since 2008, cities with split international gateways actually lost airline service while cities with consolidated international airports increased available international seats by 5 percent.
In addition to United, other international carriers at IAH also have expressed concern. In fact, earlier this year, Lufthansa wrote a
letter to Mayor Parker indicating its plans to introduce the A380 to the Houston market may not be sustainable should the city accept this proposal. British Airways has also expressed concern in a
joint letter with Lufthansa and United to HAS Director Mario Diaz.
CLAIM: CBP services are not limited.
THE FACTS: To staff a second international airport in Houston, CBP would have to divert resources from other locations, including IAH. CBP already has a significant agent shortage. International arriving customers regularly wait more than 60 minutes to clear customs, and occasionally wait times top 100 minutes or more. Slower lines due to fewer agents will require airlines to increase connecting times, adding to operating costs and passenger inconvenience. Stretching these scarce resources even further would damage IAH and make Houston less competitive as an international connection city.
CLAIM: Dallas-based Southwest will pay for the new FIS facility at Hobby.
THE FACTS: As Aviation Director Mario Diaz stated in a public hearing on April 16, the City of Houston would issue bonds to construct the proposed Hobby facilities. HAS stated its intent to use revenue from an increased Passenger Facility Charge to pay for the facility. This means that all passengers flying from Hobby, not just international passengers, and including those traveling on carriers other than Southwest, would be paying for the facility. Southwest’s promised $100 million investment in Houston will actually be financed by City of Houston debt to be paid back by a ticket tax on all Hobby passengers.