SWA plan for 15% ROIC

[PCL_128]

No furloughs.

To furlough would be a nail in the coffin of all that SWA has advertised these last four decades. SWA will only furlough if some industry stressor occurs like energy, war, or terrorism: if that happens, other will furlough long before SWA.

Second, furloughing 400, then hiring them back and retraining inside of a year or two/three is more costly than paying min guarantee to every pilot over two years.

Third, my bet is a significant number of young age wise (younger than 45) FO's see the writing on the wall and jump to other airlines which are hiring. Solving the problem well before 2015.

For once, I have to agree with scoreboardII. No furloughs to be worried about.

 

[sixlegs]

There has been a lot of speculation on this topic - The "F" word. It's interesting to speculate where we are headed. I think the poster that spoke of the influx of new jets covering the loss of the 717 was correct. What is interesting is the decline of the classics with no new jet orders to replace them.
One theory is that management has a plan and will use the fear of 500 pilots too many, to roll into a concessionary contract for the pilots. Ex. "take this contract deal, or we will have to furlough 500 of you". There is rumor of this all up and down the line I'm flying. I'm thinking this ploy would blow up in management's face. Unlike after Sept 11, when our group took a concessionary contract to prevent furlough, I think the good will of the current pilot's, on both sides of the partition, is gone. If management tries to use this tactic, the pilot group won't fall for it and there will be furloughs. I'm speculating here. What do you think?

 

[slaquer5]

I will say it again . There will be no furloughs .

Of course the company wants something in the next contract


PBS,less sick time, less use of overlap on vacation , lower the daily duty guarantee . The list goes on. GK would not not be doing his job,if he did not try to get some of this .

 

[Just thinking]

PBS,less sick time, less use of overlap on vacation , lower the daily duty guarantee .........

all part of the pretty laminated sales brochures that touted how a RSW FO makes more than a FAT Captain....... Now that gk got the captain seats for SWAPA they have no choice but to agree to the overlord's demands.....

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Although I love the optimistic outlook I just don't see it. Let's examine the facts on the ground today and build from there. On the AAI side of the partition a huge amount of flying has been eliminated, almost half of the pilots are on reserve not flying and the airframes are being sold to another carrier. On the other side of the fence SWA will end up 10 airframes smaller at the end of 2013 then we started. Add in that management is reducing the size of headqurters staff which points to at least anecdotally that they are preparing to run a smaller airline. We also know as of right now the planned number of aircraft acquisitions is far short of the planned number of aircraft disposals. Even to an Indiana public school grad like myself less airframes in total means less need for people to fly them. Even though we are talking about SWA that does not suspend reality. The only way this changes is if there is a sudden realization of profitable ASMs which in turn would justify the need for additional airframes off the open market which would in turn mitigate the job losses. When I add this up I think we are playing musical chairs where the only real question is who ends up without a seat when the music stops.

 

[scoreboardII]

O There is rumor of this all up and down the line I'm flying. I'm thinking this ploy would blow up in management's face. Unlike after Sept 11, when our group took a concessionary contract to prevent furlough, I think the good will of the current pilot's, on both sides of the partition, is gone. If management tries to use this tactic, the pilot group won't fall for it and there will be furloughs. I'm speculating here. What do you think?

Well first, there is no rumor up and down the line of a furlough, at least not my line. Secondly, what you say about the pilots not believing much of anything management has to say if it isn't spelled out in black and white is right, show us the money, put it in writing, the trust is dead. Lastly, even if pushed into a corner, management is the side which furloughs, not the pilots, if they want to waste money and furlough shorterm, thats up to them, but like my previous post, it won't happen as the costs are to high.

 

[scoreboardII]

Although I love the optimistic outlook I just don't see it. Not being optimistic, just being realistic with the facts on the ground .

Let's examine the facts on the ground today and build from there. On the AAI side of the partition a huge amount of flying has been eliminated, almost half of the pilots are on reserve not flying and the airframes are being sold to another carrier.

Using the word Huge is not a real good factual point to reference in your argument. You (other AT pilots) have admitted to AT having almost 30-40% on reserve before SWA ever announced the purchase. Are you being paid minimum guarantee? If so, nothing to worry about.

On the other side of the fence SWA will end up 10 airframes smaller at the end of 2013 then we started.

10 airframes, thats all you got? Thats a normal swing at SWA, and less than a 1% shift of airframes, we flex about 600 pilots worth of flying from slow times to busy times every year.

Add in that management is reducing the size of headqurters staff which points to at least anecdotally that they are preparing to run a smaller airline.

Points to nothing other than GK realizing his HQ costs are the highest in the industry and needs to answer to that problem before he can begin to blame other labor groups at SWA.

We also know as of right now the planned number of aircraft acquisitions is far short of the planned number of aircraft disposals. Even to an Indiana public school grad like myself less airframes in total means less need for people to fly them. Even though we are talking about SWA that does not suspend reality. The only way this changes is if there is a sudden realization of profitable ASMs which in turn would justify the need for additional airframes off the open market which would in turn mitigate the job losses. When I add this up I think we are playing musical chairs where the only real question is who ends up without a seat when the music stops.

Your numbers are not what we are seeing on this side, all indications point to flat fleet through 2015, with 2-3% growth per year into the 2015-2017 range. If we for one second thought they would be furloughing on either side we would be shouting from the roofs. Yes, we will all be flying min contract for a year or two at times, which is much better than any other merger I know of save the new Delta-Uniteds(bankrupt exit debt free) which is still TBD.

Yes, the classics are going, but at a reduced rate, and are being replaced with new iron at a reduced rate, why? Who wants to buy 100 new 700's when if all we need to do is wait two years into 2017 and we could get the NEO/MAX airframe which saves us 8% on operating costs?[/QUOTE]

Lets not get spooled up on this again....

 

[PCL_128]

On the AAI side of the partition a huge amount of flying has been eliminated, almost half of the pilots are on reserve not flying

We've been told that the flying is picking back up in a month or two, and reserves are going to drop back down to normal days off with higher utilization. This is just a temporary situation with reduced utilization during the winter, supposedly.

 

[SWA Bubba]

PBS,less sick time, less use of overlap on vacation , lower the daily duty guarantee .........

all part of the pretty laminated sales brochures that touted how a RSW FO makes more than a FAT Captain....... Now that gk got the captain seats for SWAPA they have no choice but to agree to the overlord's demands.....

Actually, we don't have to agree to jack squat. The union's position is that we've already done our part to help save money (a rapid agreement to flying -800s with no override, a rapid agreement on near-international with no override). These are things that the company wanted to help lower unit costs moving forward to achieve its goals. Basically, we already gave at the office. If we don't agree to anything different, we'll still get our pay levels and perks.

Wait... I'm sorry--if you just wanted to bitch, then sorry about answering your concerns. Carry on.

Bubba

 

[slaquer5]

PBS,less sick time, less use of overlap on vacation , lower the daily duty guarantee .........

all part of the pretty laminated sales brochures that touted how a RSW FO makes more than a FAT Captain....... Now that gk got the captain seats for SWAPA they have no choice but to agree to the overlord's demands.....

Thanks

Nice to see both sides slinging mud.I hope you don't speak for the majority over there.

 

[Just thinking]

"The union's position is that we've already done our part to help save money (a rapid agreement to flying -800s with no override, a rapid agreement on near-international with no override). These are things that the company wanted to help lower unit costs moving forward to achieve its goals. Basically, we already gave at the office."................

Not slinging mud with my comment about SWAPA caving into gk's demands. Stating a fact. They are now beholden to him and he will come calling. You got your seats and he dumped the 717's. Sure your lower third of RSW pilots will be pissed for decades but you succeeded in gaining for the middle third which had the greatest amount to gain. Top third could care less about the deal as long as it did not affect them.

You signed away override pay for what? You lowered unit cost. 137 seats to 175 seats. You directly contributed to the bottom line for the company for what? FAT Captain seats? Higher profit sharing? Better daily guarantee? What was gained other than a larger airframe which gk wanted anyhow.

Scoreboard Slaquer and Wave have made salient points. I harbor no ill will to anyone on the RSW side.
My greatest disgust is the way the gk has meddled in the process. It is pitiful that they have wasted almost two years with no code share.... something that should have been done with a couple of months to capture the "synergies" they were touting.
Herb time needs to be put on the shelf with the other memorabilia and SWA needs to take a huge jump into the 1990's. Still not single engine taxiing while they wait a couple of months so the Captains can get comfortable with the process. Enough of the operations have been revealed and it is pretty tragic that gk is preaching 15% ROI when it has been within his grasp the entire time.

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

Thanks

Nice to see both sides slinging mud.I hope you don't speak for the majority over there.

Probably the majority of those left over here. Even the facebookers, emailers, and surrender monkeys (often one in the same), are less than plussed with the way this is panning out with a lot more angst to come on both sides.

 

[scoreboardII]

"The union's position is that we've already done our part to help save money (a rapid agreement to flying -800s with no override, a rapid agreement on near-international with no override). These are things that the company wanted to help lower unit costs moving forward to achieve its goals. Basically, we already gave at the office."................

Not slinging mud with my comment about SWAPA caving into gk's demands. Stating a fact. They are now beholden to him and he will come calling. You got your seats and he dumped the 717's. Sure your lower third of RSW pilots will be pissed for decades but you succeeded in gaining for the middle third which had the greatest amount to gain. Top third could care less about the deal as long as it did not affect them.

You signed away override pay for what? You lowered unit cost. 137 seats to 175 seats. You directly contributed to the bottom line for the company for what? FAT Captain seats? Higher profit sharing? Better daily guarantee? What was gained other than a larger airframe which gk wanted anyhow.

Scoreboard Slaquer and Wave have made salient points. I harbor no ill will to anyone on the RSW side.
My greatest disgust is the way the gk has meddled in the process. It is pitiful that they have wasted almost two years with no code share.... something that should have been done with a couple of months to capture the "synergies" they were touting.
Herb time needs to be put on the shelf with the other memorabilia and SWA needs to take a huge jump into the 1990's. Still not single engine taxiing while they wait a couple of months so the Captains can get comfortable with the process. Enough of the operations have been revealed and it is pretty tragic that gk is preaching 15% ROI when it has been within his grasp the entire time.

please enlighten us how zero input by the CEO in the USair debacle was good for pilots or the company?

 

[SWA Bubba]

......

Not slinging mud with my comment about SWAPA caving into gk's demands. Stating a fact. They are now beholden to him and he will come calling. You got your seats and he dumped the 717's. Sure your lower third of RSW pilots will be pissed for decades but you succeeded in gaining for the middle third which had the greatest amount to gain. Top third could care less about the deal as long as it did not affect them.
.....

Your idea that we (SWAPA) "owes" GK anything and that we're "beholden" to him for his input on the SLI deal is NOT a fact-- it's simply sour grapes on your part. It's part of your tired schtick to imply that GK and SWAPA ganged up on you to "steal your toys." It's crap, and I guarantee you that no one at SWAPA feels this way. No one. Some Southwest pilots are neutral and some are pissed off because of their feelings on the whole matter. Trust me--you guys don't have any monopoly on not liking this whole merger thing.

We owe the company nothing for this merger. Not a damn thing. SWAPA typically tries to work with the company for the betterment of both, because that's how our relationship works. That's all we're doing, and like I said, SWAPA's position is that we already contributed to Gary's goals.

Give it a rest, or at the very least, do your "just thinking" to yourself; no one is buying your sob story. We all took what the company told us, and it seems that nobody really likes it. We'll all get over it, or we won't. Everyone makes that decision for themselves.

Bubba

 

[texman]

Actually, we don't have to agree to jack squat. The union's position is that we've already done our part to help save money (a rapid agreement to flying -800s with no override, a rapid agreement on near-international with no override). These are things that the company wanted to help lower unit costs moving forward to achieve its goals. Basically, we already gave at the office. If we don't agree to anything different, we'll still get our pay levels and perks.

Wait... I'm sorry--if you just wanted to bitch, then sorry about answering your concerns. Carry on.

Bubba

I totally agree with you bubba. We gave the company the tools to succeed. It is up to them to execute.

 

[Just thinking]

Time will tell. I want SWA to be as efficient as possible and make the right moves to gain the hallowed 15% ROIC. I just have not seen much evidence from an operational stand point. Millions of dollars of fuel have been wasted. Airtran went as far as using less potable water for the shorter flights in an effort to save fuel. I have not seen that sort of effort from the SWA operational side. "That is not how SWA does it" is not the answer. Before this all went down I could have cared less how SWA operated. Now I have a vested interest and it is pretty obvious that it is now cutting into the profit sharing.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Scoreboard just for reference I am a SWA F/O and am not and never have been AAI. I have no idea what "normal" is in terms of reserve staffing on the Airtran side. I think it is fair to say that with all the cities that have left the Airtran system that a lot of flying has been taken out of Airtran. I can't quantify that in terms of block hours but maybe PCL or Lear can. In normal circumstances I wouldn't sweat 10 airframes leaving but the problem is if we were really going to have a flat fleet the WN side of the partition should be growing at roughtly the same rate the AT side is shrinking. That is not the case. AAI is losing 24 airframes (16 to DL and 8 to WN) and WN is losing 10 in addition to those for a total loss of 34 airframes. That is more than a normal fluctuation.

 

[maxblast72]

Scoreboard just for reference I am a SWA F/O and am not and never have been AAI. I have no idea what "normal" is in terms of reserve staffing on the Airtran side. I think it is fair to say that with all the cities that have left the Airtran system that a lot of flying has been taken out of Airtran. I can't quantify that in terms of block hours but maybe PCL or Lear can. In normal circumstances I wouldn't sweat 10 airframes leaving but the problem is if we were really going to have a flat fleet the WN side of the partition should be growing at roughtly the same rate the AT side is shrinking. That is not the case. AAI is losing 24 airframes (16 to DL and 8 to WN) and WN is losing 10 in addition to those for a total loss of 34 airframes. That is more than a normal fluctuation.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers. For 2013, according to Tammy Romo (SWA CFO) and Gary Kelly (SWA CEO), Southwest/AirTran combined are getting 20 new B737-800s from Boeing, retiring 13 B737 classics, and sub leasing 16 B717s to Delta. According to my math, that is a net fleet reduction of 9 aircraft. Also, Kelly is advertising 2% ASMS growth to Wall Street for 2013.

 

[waveflyer]

Just thinking-
You think too much-
I get it- waiting for the other shoe to drop- it always has in my career-
But I'll paraphrase a certain director of training: some day something will happen and you'll need Gary and swa to have your back - and he will, and WE WILL. In the meantime show up and take care of everyone you see. Don't even worry about you. Those acts and that mentality will result in you being taken care of ten times better than if you focused on yourself.

No furloughs

A classmate of mine already had his GK has his back moment- and when cancer has you, it's powerful stuff-

Me, I look at how GK didn't furlough in 2008&2009 -
I get being worried - but remember, it was AT that took that opportunity to take hostages, not swa

By the way-
S5 has it right- we've had to have a lot of patience, and GK needs to get contracts in line company wide

But watch what 2015 is going to bring

And JT, I didn't get an upgrade, only a very small percentage did- maybe those few hundred pilots of 8000+ owe GK, but Im with bubba, we've been more than cooperative in the last few years-
Paychecks cashed well, but I see no reason for givebacks when the company has gotten pretty much everything they wanted

 

[dicko]

Just thinking-
You think too much-
I get it- waiting for the other shoe to drop- it always has in my career-
But I'll paraphrase a certain director of training: some day something will happen and you'll need Gary and swa to have your back - and he will, and WE WILL. In the meantime show up and take care of everyone you see. Don't even worry about you. Those acts and that mentality will result in you being taken care of ten times better than if you focused on yourself.

No furloughs

A classmate of mine already had his GK has his back moment- and when cancer has you, it's powerful stuff-

Me, I look at how GK didn't furlough in 2008&2009 -
I get being worried - but remember, it was AT that took that opportunity to take hostages, not swa

By the way-
S5 has it right- we've had to have a lot of patience, and GK needs to get contracts in line company wide

But watch what 2015 is going to bring

And JT, I didn't get an upgrade, only a very small percentage did- maybe those few hundred pilots of 8000+ owe GK, but Im with bubba, we've been more than cooperative in the last few years-
Paychecks cashed well, but I see no reason for givebacks when the company has gotten pretty much everything they wanted

I like it. Most of it anyway.

In all fairness; you may not have got an upgrade out of it, but your seniority increased by a percentage. That got you closer to an upgrade. I understand that their are other factors involved. Still, it certainly beats losing 32%.

I do think 2015 will be an interesting year. I read today that the Hobby International terminal is scheduled to open that year.

 

[scoreboardII]

Please, get off he seniority grab, everyone over on the swa side will end our careers within one percent of where we Were pre AT. The nature of the AT pilot force being younger demanded as much, and in my opinion far more, but I'm over that. You should be as well.

 

[dicko]

Please, get off he seniority grab, everyone over on the swa side will end our careers within one percent of where we Were pre AT. The nature of the AT pilot force being younger demanded as much, and in my opinion far more, but I'm over that. You should be as well.

We should be over it because you are ? Interesting world view.

Spending longer as a Captain prior to that final retirement number makes you more money. My point being; your final retirement percentage is less relevant than the amount of time being paid at the Captain rate. You got a boost towards that number. We got a foot on our head.

The age issue is SWAPA smoke and mirrors. Look at the analysis of age on myseniority.com. He showed that it's only true in a narrow band.

 

[HowardBorden]

The age issue is SWAPA smoke and mirrors. Look at the analysis of age on myseniority.com. He showed that it's only true in a narrow band.

Well, it's certainly true in my "band." I gained less than 9% in global seniority that is slowly eroded away until my retirement. I end up with less than one half of one percentage point change in seniority with the AirTran acquisition as opposed to without it at retirement.

 

[redflyer65]

Same here. Zero gain on my upgrade date. Nothing.

 

[texman]

We should be over it because you are ? Interesting world view.

Spending longer as a Captain prior to that final retirement number makes you more money. My point being; your final retirement percentage is less relevant than the amount of time being paid at the Captain rate. You got a boost towards that number. We got a foot on our head.

The age issue is SWAPA smoke and mirrors. Look at the analysis of age on myseniority.com. He showed that it's only true in a narrow band.

Dicko, AT's financial's and everybody consolidating, AT would have never survived. You do know that SWA is paying down your 3 plus billion that AT owed in debt. Stop being a blue collar thinker. As far as the foot in the head? I would love to tell you over a beer what I lost in the long Run. I lost a lot of QOL and Money making potential. Even your boy Klaus knew the fate of AT, Plus you should talk to your ex CFO when you get a chance.

 

[vixin]

Tex, but they had all these orders and ATL. Dont mention financial stuff because they were going to grow like no tomorrow. Despite what their CEO and CFO were saying. That was all smoke and mirrors. AAI was the place to be.

 

[canyonblue]

Still, it certainly beats losing 32%.

Please, enough about the 32% figure which represents your relative position at AT vs SWA.

#1. Relative seniority would have never happened, ever, no way no how no sir.

#2. If I didn't gain 32% seniority, you didn't lose 32% seniority, simple math.

Sorry, but I can't stand hearing that response, it makes no sense.

Well, it's certainly true in my "band." I gained less than 9% in global seniority that is slowly eroded away until my retirement. I end up with less than one half of one percentage point change in seniority with the AirTran acquisition as opposed to without it at retirement.

Seems to be the point with many of us, how did this acquisition help me?

Please, get off he seniority grab, everyone over on the swa side will end our careers within one percent of where we Were pre AT. The nature of the AT pilot force being younger demanded as much, and in my opinion far more, but I'm over that. You should be as well.

Very true, talked to a Delta (NWA) friend today who informed me on their "merger" SLI between two very close in size airlines. Most of the NWA guys lost 2+ years some more, and many who expected to retire on a widebody, will now retire on a 757.

 

[humveedriver]

Until there is some good news, there will be petty threads like this. It's a downside to the separate ops. Wish they would have ripped the band aid off instead of peeling it away slowing. I think some of the stuff that is impacting us now is going to help in the long run. The big one that grabs me is the fleet decision. Sucks all the way around for everybody and threw alot of folks for a loop. But I'm looking at the "big order" and the decision to delay several -800s as a big thing. Either 900max or 900ER big. For longer range stuff. 787 is twice the cost of either if those rigs. The big order didn't break down the model series. Throw in the new intl terminal at HOU and the wright amendment and there is some good stuff to be done in TX. I can see BWI, LAX , MCO and SJU becoming more focul in SWAs future too. Capacity is down 28% for the year in Memphis and SWA is adding more flights to fill the void. I think there is great cause to be cautiously optimistic. Once things pick up again, folks will spend less time complaining about "the good old days".

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

Can WN go to San Juan yet?

 

[humveedriver]

Starting 14 APR from MCO and TPA. I hope so or else they sold alot of tickets for nothing.