SWA plan for 15% ROIC

[Secret Squirrel]

Pilots are a funny bunch. Most are smart enough to realize the massive damage a strike will do to their respective companies, but most are also self absorbed enough to not care. As soon as it becomes "us vs them" with your management, you both lose. Money is hard enough to make in the airline business...do you really want to complicate that?

If you owned your own small business and were dealing with employee issues such as this, how would you handle it? How would you feel as the owner?

Am I a multi-millionaire with an incredible golden parachute with an airline that is too big to fail? Just trying to figure out my motivation here. Management is an employee just like the line pilot.

 

[Mamma]

Pilots are a funny bunch. Most are smart enough to realize the massive damage a strike will do to their respective companies, but most are also self absorbed enough to not care. As soon as it becomes "us vs them" with your management, you both lose. Money is hard enough to make in the airline business...do you really want to complicate that?

If you owned your own small business and were dealing with employee issues such as this, how would you handle it? How would you feel as the owner?

Once again here is another "funny pilot" who understands nothing about the industry he/she is in. Strikes do not happen overnight. They take years and years to come to fruition and this is after the mediation board has ruled there is no other option. If management is playing fair and being reasonable, the mediation board will not release the pilots to strike. Why do guys like you always blame the rank and file employees for a strike to come about? The threat of strike is the only motivating factor that moves the negotiation process forward. Usually the two parties solve their problems at the table.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Back to topic. WNs has a multipronged approach to 15 percent ROIC.

1. As pointed out they will go after labor's work rules and hiring

2. increase revenue with Bus select Rapid Rewards and this new seating thing

3. -800s

4. schedule optimization 7 seperate schudules each week instead of the 3 current each week. AKA much less flying mid week

5. international

6. Most important for folks on here less "unproductive" flying which means fewer airplanes and fewer pilots. Already scheduled for about 70 fewer airframes than the combined total now. To save the training costs of transitioning approx 550 FL pilots they only need to furlough 365 WN pilots

 

[humveedriver]

Ghetto,

I know I've seen the delivery chart, but can't remember where? Is that what you are basing the 70 net loss of airframes on? New 737 to 717 retirement?

Here is something to consider. Right now AT and SWA is still being operated very much seperatly. I know the code share is suppose to happen soon, but really, big deal. The point is to get SWA customers and the brand into AT cities. Not try to introduce SWA customers to the AT brand. 2013 is really the last year for SWA to transition at a deliberate pace. 2014 is going to be really interesting. Not just because the training department will be going 24/7. But I believe you will see a lot more flying on the SWA side. There are new city combinations that need to be flown from old SWA cities to AT cities. Our former managagement used to call it connecting the dots. Between our international and domestic cities, there are going to be a lot of dots to connect using the SWA brand. There is no way SWA is going to telegraph what the new service will be. It sounds like we may be heavy on pilots in 2014. But there will also be a lot of training. So it may be close to a wash. I see things ramping up in 2015, so I don't think furloughing 130 pilots for one year is going to make sense.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Ghetto,

I see things ramping up in 2015, so I don't think furloughing 130 pilots for one year is going to make sense.

Only if Airtran management was still in charge.

 

[texman]

Humm is right!

 

[PCL_128]

If you owned your own small business and were dealing with employee issues such as this, how would you handle it? How would you feel as the owner?

I wouldn't treat my employees like trash, so it wouldn't be a problem for me.

 

[HowardBorden]

6. Most important for folks on here less "unproductive" flying which means fewer airplanes and fewer pilots. Already scheduled for about 70 fewer airframes than the combined total now. To save the training costs of transitioning approx 550 FL pilots they only need to furlough 365 WN pilots

I have yet to see these numbers. Kelly has directly made this statement: "The plan is to keep Southwest’s fleet constant at around 700 airplanes over the next five years, adding enough new Boeing 737s to replace more than 150 older Boeing 737 Classics that will be retired during that period."

 

[Phlintstone]

6. Most important for folks on here less "unproductive" flying which means fewer airplanes and fewer pilots. Already scheduled for about 70 fewer airframes than the combined total now. To save the training costs of transitioning approx 550 FL pilots they only need to furlough 365 WN pilots

Where do you get this info? If it is a gut feeling, keep it to yourself. If GK has to choose between training AT pilots, or keeping SWA pilots, he will keep the latter. AT will always get the short stick in those types of decisions. It is the AT guys that need to sweat a possible furlough. Momma Kelly will take care of you.

Just a recent example...Have you looked at your latest "attendance program?" The passes you earn are good on AT and SW flights but our passes are only good on AT flights. Way to GK, just keep kicking your future employees.

Phred

 

[canyonblue]

Where do you get this info? If it is a gut feeling, keep it to yourself. If GK has to choose between training AT pilots, or keeping SWA pilots, he will keep the latter. AT will always get the short stick in those types of decisions. It is the AT guys that need to sweat a possible furlough. Momma Kelly will take care of you.

Just a recent example...Have you looked at your latest "attendance program?" The passes you earn are good on AT and SW flights but our passes are only good on AT flights. Way to GK, just keep kicking your future employees.

Phred

Oh, Porterhouse! Look at the wax build up on those shoes! This is fine leather. I want that wax stripped off there, and I want creamed, and buffed with a fine chamois. I want them now. Chop! Chop!

 

[Phlintstone]

Do you have something to add or are you just so hopped up on koolaid that you think you are a character in caddy shack?

Phred

 

[Dan Roman]

Do you have something to add or are you just so hopped up on koolaid that you think you are a character in caddy shack?

Phred

At least he's got that going for him....which is nice

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Guys this is more than a gut feeling. The plan as of today is that 88 717s will be going away to DL offset by 86 Boeing deliveries in 2013 and 2014. The issue is really the retirement of the classics that there are no deliveries to offset. By the end of 2015 the classic fleet will be around 100 down from 168 today. The only will be offset whatever deliveries will be received in 2015. Also according to one of my sources there will be a further offest by fewer airplanes in MX as Evolve, WiFi installations, and AirTran conversions come to an end. The company may offset this further or even completely with additional aircraft acquired off the secondary leasing market but isn't committed to doing so.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

As a matter of fact the fleet reduction has already started. According to the December SWAPA RP the WN side of the partition will be be 10 airframes smaller this year which doesn't include the loss of the 717s on the AAI side. The ASMs have already been reduced on the AAI side to accomodate the fleet reduction which is why half of the 1700 AAI pilots are on reserve.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Phred by 2015 when the furloughs start all AAI pilots will be SWAPA members which means there will be no doubt of the furlough order. It will be

1. 180 pilots hired after the deal was done whose names don't appear on the ISL 130 are on the WN side 50 on the AAI side.

2. 76 WN pilots

3. 50 FL pilots

4. 159 WN pilots

5. 449 FL pilots

If there are millions in costs savings to be realized by not training pilots we don't need management won't hesitate to "right size" our pilot work force.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Don't take my word for it talk to your reps either ALPA or SWAPA or chief pilot. Right now there are not enough airframes or ASMS to support the current compliment of pilots. Both FL and WN are overstaffed already. Add into this that Lear claims that CM told AAI ALPA that even with a flat fleet when the transition was complete we would be 400 pilots overstaffed including retirements just due to productivity differences. I'm not trying to scare anyone but if you are junior at either airline you will be affected by this mess. Knowing it now might help you prepare and save you grief later

 

[madjack]

I believe all furloughs will be FAT until one year after full integration... AAI gave up one- for-one protection btw SL9 and SL10...blame ur MEC and the blowhards on this forum...

 

[humveedriver]

Don't take my word for it talk to your reps either ALPA or SWAPA or chief pilot. Right now there are not enough airframes or ASMS to support the current compliment of pilots. Both FL and WN are overstaffed already. Add into this that Lear claims that CM told AAI ALPA that even with a flat fleet when the transition was complete we would be 400 pilots overstaffed including retirements just due to productivity differences. I'm not trying to scare anyone but if you are junior at either airline you will be affected by this mess. Knowing it now might help you prepare and save you grief later

I'm not doubting your math. And I'm hearing similar reports from folks I know at SWA about the staffing. I look at it this way. Either you are exactly right. Or we just don't have all the information. I just can't get on board that SWA would buy an airline, hire new employees and then plan on furloughing them in less than 4 years. I can't see how that fits in with the rest of their return to 15% ROIC plan? I mean its always a possibility. If you are in the bottom 10 percent of any airline, you should not feel comfortable, I don't care which airline it is. I just don't think they are sharing all the strategic information. It certainly doesn't hurt their cause with section 6 negotiations to manipulate the integration in such a way, as to cast doubt on certain folks futures, without it actually damaging the stock price.

 

[Phlintstone]

I believe all furloughs will be FAT until one year after full integration...

I'd be interested to see where that is written. Do you have a source? I've read through all the furlough info I can find and nothing mentions that specification.

Phred

 

[Phlintstone]

Nevermind, I found it. Well doesn't that just suck the big one...

It is in side letter 8

Section 6
Transition Job Security Protections
6-A. Furlough.
(i) In accordance with Section 1.C.1. of the SWAPA CBA, no pilot on the SWAPA
Master Seniority list will be furloughed prior to Complete Operational Merger.

(ii) Unless prohibitive conditions beyond the control of Southwest occur, to include
extreme economic conditions, no Southwest Pilot will be placed on furlough
during the first year following Complete Operational Merger.

(iii) Southwest shall immediately notify SWAPA if any such furlough is anticipated,
and shall promptly meet with SWAPA upon request to discuss and consider​

alternatives that might avoid or mitigate the effects of a furlough.



Phred