SWA or DAL

[radarlove]

"Nobody has upgraded at SWA in five years since the last century.
For those hired now, it will be 7+ years. Not bad, I have a friend who's halfway there already, but it's not five. Or six."

Not Quite True...I have been at Southwest 2yrs, 5mnths and I am closer to Captain (21.8% from Upgrade)than I am to the bottom of the Seniority List(23.3% from the bottom). I am on track for a 5 year upgrade...of course that will change hear in a year or so when they change the retirement age.

-Turn&Pull

My friend pulled up the seniority list for me. It is, in fact "quite true". Look at it yourself, the last five year upgrade was hired in the last century.

Sorry dude, you're looking at a 7+ year upgrade. It's weird to me how a non-SWA guy knows more about upgrade than someone who likes the KoolAide.

Look at the seniority list yourself.

 

[bluesideup1]

Actually Radar turn&pull is right. Between the begining of 2002 and the middle of 2004 we only hired about 250 new pilots. Before that we were hiring around 300-350 a year, so once the upgrades hit the date of hire of 2002. Years to upgrade times will drop rapidly and then stabalize at between 5-6 years for the most junior base. This of course doesn't take into account canceled A/C orders or changing the mandatory retirement age.

 

[Pat Fabin]

The thread that just won't die....

At least its not an RJDC thread.

 

[firstthird]

Last guy that finished Captain training was hired in Oct 2000. 6 years 5 months to Lance captain. Probably another 3 or 4 to holding captain.

But like bluesideup said, the 'snake effect' is in play here. The 2 years of very low hiring introduced a 1-2 year 'artificial' delay. What do I mean by artificial? Well, it is real enough for the guys who are upgrading at 7 years versus 5 but for the guys that were hired after the slow down ended, it looks more like 5 1/2 or 6. Granted, still not 5 years.

Anyone in the airline business ought to have a good understanding of the mechanics of upgrade. obviously not everyone does. We upgrade due to 2 factors, growth and retirements. SWA has grown at 8-10% traditionally. Those 2 years after 9/11 were less, thus the longer times to upgrade as of today. As of 2 years from now though, it should be around 6 years (knock on wood).

I loved the statement by the thread starter about how he'd retire as #15-30 at delta but never above 60% at SWA. Talk about confusion. Delta had all those 55+ guys go out early to get the lump sum. So, for the next 5 or 10 years, the 'retirement' side of their upgrade equation is static; only new planes will open up Captain seats.

Now, this can all change if SWA stops buying planes, age 60 goes to 65 (add 1 to 1.5 years for guys at SWA, maybe more for guys at airlines with no aircraft growth), or if Delta starts growing and buying lots of planes. But as it stands today with current forecasts, the thread starter would make captain faster and end up at a somewhat equivalent place on the list eventually at SWA. But change the assumptions, that changes.

 

[radarlove]

I'll believe it when I see it...I've been on Flightinfo for a long time and I've been hearing this "five year upgrade" since I came here and it's been untrue the whole time. It's seven years, give or take, and I don't see how it can drop two years as the airline grows in size.

There's nothing wrong with a seven year upgrade, it just makes me crazy that SWA people keep using this wrong figure.

It's like using the old UAL pay rates when talking about how much you're going to make at UAL if you got hired in 2007.

Now let's say age 60 changes, then it's going to be closing in on nine years upgrade at LUV, which is a lot different than five years, isn't it?

 

[firstthird]

It's seven years, give or take, and I don't see how it can drop two years as the airline grows in size.

I explained it above. It really is a simple equation. The fact that you don't see it is really immaterial. Right now my upgrade is projected at 5 yrs 5 months to lance and 5 years 9 months to captain.

Like I said above, if age 60 changes, add about 1 year to 1.5 years to above numbers. I'm near the start of the post 9/11 slow down hires so there will probably be some behind me that have shorter upgrades.

It isn't 5 years but it shouldn't be 7 either.

I suspect there is no way to convince you till it happens since you don't seem to be mathematically inclined so I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I, on the inside with a vested interest in understanding how it works; you, on the outside, refusing to believe the information people tell you.

Although, I think you said your SWA buddies were telling you 7 years. If so, they were probably hired pre 9/11 and are pissed it isn't 5. Well, speaking as someone who spent 2.5 years between interview and getting hired. I would've rather been hired and be where they are at a 7 year upgrade than to have been 2+ years with no job and no money coming in and be looking at a 5.5 or 6 upgrade. It is all a matter of perspective.

Strictly math, as long as a company grows at a constant rate, upgrades will come at a constant rate, assuming constant rate retirements. thus the 5 year upgrade for so long. The 3 percent (guess) versus 8-10 percent for 2 years put a delay in the system for those on property when it happened. I can't explain it simpler than that.

 

[radarlove]

I'm not mathematically challenged. For a co-pilot to upgrade, an airline has to roughly double in size. As an airline gets bigger, the doubling takes longer. The math is easy. It sounds like you're on track to take 6 years to upgrade, I still don't understand where your five year argument is coming from.

BTW, LUV has never gone through a 3% growth for two years, you should know your own history.

The days of five year upgrade at LUV ended in the late 1990s due to the size of the airline and it appears nobody working as a pilot noticed it.

 

[firstthird]

You got me interested, so I checked on the historical upgrades.
Right up until 9/11, upgrades were at 5 years and 2 or 3 months. So, 5 year upgrades didn't end in the late-nineties but in September of 2001.

Then it went to 6 1/2 to 7 years. Actually, there are guys on the list a number apart that upgraded 3 years apart, presumably QOL decisions along with the glacial growth rate 2001-2003. The 6.5 to 7 is where it is now.

If you look back over my posts, I never said we are at 5 year upgrades or expect them to go back to that. I expect to be 5 1/2 to 6 (age 65 not included).

I guess what gets my goat is your assumption that 7 years is the new norm and it will get worse from there. I see 7 years as a direct result of 9/11 and that it will go back down to 5.5 or so assuming our growth continues as it has 2003-2007.

 

[SWA/FO]

All I have to say is 5,6 & 7 is a lot less then 12 - 15 years at some legacy carriers. Soon yall will be calling me the SWA/CA!!!!

 

[radarlove]

I'm not trying to get your goat; in fact it's really my friend's argument, not mine, he's the one that got me going on this. He's now a capt. but he spent more than six years as a co-pilot and would always whine about the captains that kept saying "You're going to upgrade soon! It's only five years!" when he knew that it was closer to seven.

So I kept getting an earful, then I read it here on Flightinfo like it's gospel--the mythical LUV five year upgrade.

You are certainly right about exactly who upgraded when, I don't have access to your seniority list and only saw it that one time on my friend's computer and it was clear that the 1990s were a lot diferent than the 2000s when it came to upgrade.

You contend it's Sept. 11th and I contend that it's more of a function of the sheer size of the airline (which didn't keep growing, even during the ugly times). As I mentioned, as an airline gets bigger, upgrade times take longer because it takes longer to double in size. I suspect you are partially correct as well, of course retirements matter too.

But this is a majors interview board, I think anyone interviewing (like the guy that started this thread) should hear the truth, that upgrade time is closer to seven years than to five, and THEN hear the theories about how it might get better toward the end of the decade.

 

[radarlove]

All I have to say is 5,6 & 7 is a lot less then 12 - 15 years at some legacy carriers. Soon yall will be calling me the SWA/CA!!!!

Ok a perfect chance to find out the real scoop. How long from getting hired to making captain will it take you? I'm guessing not five years.

 

[SWA/FO]

looks like 6 years, 2 months, 14 hours......that should do it.

 

[737 Pylt]

All I have to say is 5,6 & 7 is a lot less then 12 - 15 years at some legacy carriers. Soon yall will be calling me the SWA/CA!!!!

Naah, It will be THE SWA/PRICK!

737

 

[Heavy Set]

looks like 6 years, 2 months, 14 hours......that should do it.

So you'll be the richest non oil man in Lubbock for a short 12 hour layover. Who cares? You're still laying over in LBB. Yippy. 6 legs to go until your Boise layover.

 

[Quimby]

So you'll be the richest non oil man in Lubbock for a short 12 hour layover. Who cares? You're still laying over in LBB. Yippy. 6 legs to go until your Boise layover.

Why are you so concerned about where SWA has layovers? Is everywhere you go in the Lear is new and exciting? Not bashing either......