SWA - AAI question

[Cobraair75drvr]

Me thinks someone bought into the 5 year upgrade promise. Earth to SW fo's, those days are over. Do you really think sw would merge vs grow if they had a choice? Get real. The easy pickens are over. Without below market labor cost and fuel hedging you are just another airline. Welcome to legacy world.

We have been no growth for 2 years....why....to save money to buy AT. If this deal fell through, SWA would step up the growth. As far as this benefiting every SWA pilot, that remains to be seen.

Does it seem funny to you that most SWA pilots do not want this deal but most AT guys do!!! Ever ask yourself why that is the case?

 

[texman]

You guys wanna know my biggest fear.....im afraid that if arbitration is going poorly for SWAPA they will potentially try to delay the integration to force us to take something close to a staple. Iran and Israel get into it and im close to the bottom of 8000 pilots. At Airtran im no where close to the bottom. Guys im human like you, im afraid of having a larger chance of furlough due to poor SLI. Us guys at Airtran have families too. We have to consider the worst case scenario. Every SW pilot in my shoes would share the same concern.

I can understand your fear. We at SWA don't or try not to furlough. I hope that you captains at AT understand this when push comes to shove when you are at SWA, where ever you may fall on the seniority. I am sorry that you have been bought. If I was in your shoes I would feel the same way. I don't think it is fair when a company is bought that one person gets to come in a reap all the benefits from a company that is 40 years old, that has job stability and great work environment. Yes I understand what AT brings to the table from only a business stand point. I do like your B plan, but this is a success sharing company and I don't think GK is going to give that to 8000 pilots and 12000 FA's, because the FA's have a me too clause. If it does go to arbitration I know SWAPA will have a very strong case, so I am not worried. What I don't understand why is ALPA requesting what they are requesting. What that tells me is they want it all and want it now? That is BS.

 

[texman]

Me thinks someone bought into the 5 year upgrade promise. Earth to SW fo's, those days are over. Do you really think sw would merge vs grow if they had a choice? Get real. The easy pickens are over. Without below market labor cost and fuel hedging you are just another airline. Welcome to legacy world.

We still cost less than the legacies, do your financial research.

 

[FlyinGuy]

Me thinks someone bought into the 5 year upgrade promise. Earth to SW fo's, those days are over. Do you really think sw would merge vs grow if they had a choice? Get real. The easy pickens are over. Without below market labor cost and fuel hedging you are just another airline. Welcome to legacy world.

Never bought into that thinking because I know how to do simple math...but thanks for the wisdom.

 

[texman]

I agree but airlines operate on % capacity increases. Example... Southwest plans on 5% inxrease in capacity for the year xyz....you need to staff those increases with the appropriate pilots. Gary Kelly, on the 4th qtr conference call, mentioned needing a yield of 15% before expansion outside of the growth linked to the Airtran acquisition. I think he said they were at 11%. Without the acquisition no growth is planned. I listened to the entire conference call. The acquisition will benefit every SW pilot, especially long term. Unfortunately in this country the big fish get the food and you gotta be the big boy on campus.

Yes, numbers do not lie. But your 51 options for 737's is not a option for AT. The reason why is, AT does not have the cash to exercise those options (can't grow without cash). You admitted it earlier, you are afraid of getting furloughed. Why should any original SWA guy ever get furloughed?

 

[SKC]

The easy pickens are over. Without below market labor cost and fuel hedging you are just another airline.

Yep, and with them, we're a company with 38 consecutive years of profitability.

 

[737tanker]

Yes there has been no growth at SWA for 2 years, one of the reasons why is that there has been no simulators available. During the last 2 years all of the available simulator time, after PCs and PTs, was being used for RNAV and RNP training. That training was finished Dec 2010. As for growth in 2011 the Senior Chief Pilot said that in addition to all the -700s SWA has on order they are going to renew leases on some of the -300s. So now that the RNAV/RNP training is complete there are new hire classes being conducted, 9 scheduled Jan-March, and planned aircraft growth.
As for getting the synergy of a combined AirTran and SWA the 2 companies don't have to be combined to do that. One of the items that SWA and SWAPA are negotiating in the transition agreement is a waiver to the ban on domestic codeshare. Allowing a codeshare with AirTran, before operations are combined, will allow SWA to gain that additional revenue immediately.

 

[Bwipilot]

10% growth of 6000 pilots is 600 new hires and upgrades. 10% growth of 8000 pilots is 800 new hires and upgrades. Sound pretty good to me.

The fault with this statement is the assumption that SWA sets a growth target and then blindly grows that ammount. Rather the process goes like this:

- GK to Revenue Management (RM): "Got any new routes we can make money on? Any routes we need to cut?"

- GK to Schedule Planning (SP): "RM says we need to add these routes. Do we have the aircraft and facilities?"

- GK to training and People Department: "RM and SP says we can grow by x--can you train/hire enough?"

- GK to acquisitions: "Go buy/lease some airplanes!"

It's been that way for years. If the company wants to grow, it finds airplanes or doesn't retire airplanes that were scheduled to be gone.

Hence, a percentage of 6,000 or 8,000 doesn't matter a bit. With the merger, training will be tied up transitioning AT pilots--even though ATL will offer some possibilities. The whole operation will be dealing with the merger. Hence, SWA pilots are missing out on 2 years of possible organic growth to bring the AT pilots on board. Hadn't even thought about that last point until writing this post.

That's one reason SWA pilots don't so much care if the deal falls through. SWA pilots recognize there will be organic growth once the economy improves since the company will have to find another way to grow.

 

[texman]

BWIPILOT and 737tanker hit the nail on the head. Thanks

 

[Ty Webb]

Yes, numbers do not lie. But your 51 options for 737's is not a option for AT. The reason why is, AT does not have the cash to exercise those options (can't grow without cash). You admitted it earlier, you are afraid of getting furloughed. Why should any original SWA guy ever get furloughed?

We took delivery of 135 new aircraft in the past ten years and we are are MUCH more financially sound now than we were when any of those other aircraft were acquired. With $500 million cash in the bank, and interest rates at all-time lows, leasing more aircraft isn't a problem.

Some of you guys just repeat stuff mindlessly and without even thinking about what you are posting here. I'm not even bothering to respond to most of it, it is just so ridiculous.

No doubt some are going to be really upset when this business is done, and most of it will be self-inflicted.