TexaSWA said:
its unlikely you will see us repeating anything that has undone the "legacys"
TexasSWA, I also doubt that you will repeat the same specific mistakes that have doomed the legacy carriers. However, I think SWA could fall prey to some of the same types of cultural and emotional problems that infested the former big boys during their period of dominance.
The changes to SWA's culture and attitude, as you transition from perennial underdog to 800 pound gorilla, could be very threatening. As SWA takes a more aggressive stance within the industry, the subtle emotional effects that will have on employees and customers could be damaging. It's easy to rally the troops to put up with low pay and more work when their survival is threatened. However, the opposite is true now at SWA, and I think the psychological motivation to keep costs low and operate efficiently will be reduced with SWA's new industry position. Additionally, humility has always been a cornerstone of SWA's culture. Customers have always picked up on that and liked it. Customers have also always known up to this point, through SWA's marketing and by the genuine case of reality, that SWA was in an underdog sort of situation. They were willing to cut SWA just a little bit of slack. That's the way people are. Now, however, times have certainly changed. It is hard to be humble when you're the dominant industry leader. Both employees and customers will eventually realize this. It'll be extremely difficult to keep your culture the same. Customers will also have a different expectation from a SWA that is king of the hill.
SWA will be able to ride on it's coattails and the goodwill it has engendered for a while, but eventually that could change unless the growth is very, very carefully managed. Employees from the old guard will still be humble and try to maintain the old SWA spirit. However, there is a real danger (I think) that they will be overwhelmed as the newer, cockier employees work their way into the SWA organization. Believe me, there are pilots being hired at SWA today who five years disparaged and ridiculed anyone who would pay for a type rating to go work at a low ball operation.
Another point to consider: SWA has incredible fuel hedges (in the mid $20's) right now that last for the next couple of years. This is VERY good for SWA and will virtually guarantee SWA's position for the next several years. However, those same fuel hedges could turn out to be a bad thing in the long run. The airlines without good fuel hedges right now are being forced by the competitive situation to become ultra-efficient. If they don't become ultra-efficient, they will die (USAir, Independence, ATA). Therefore, the airlines that do manage to make it through to a point where all of the airlines are on somewhat equal footing in terms of fuel prices will be profit-making machines. SWA may feel some pressure right now to keep costs rock-bottom low but at the end of the day that pressure cannot rival the do-or-die pressure on other airlines. I've long held the belief that people do only what they know and believe they really
have to do to get by. That's the argument I'm making here. Airlines like AirTran, JetBlue, and America West know and believe they
have to be efficient. SWA knows in it's heart it doesn't
have to be as efficient right now. If the playing field is ever leveled, SWA could be at a disadvantage.