NWA/DAL solving the seniority issue

[jke406]

OK, so please explain how a merger (minimum 24 months before OI) is going to have any effect on the short term fuel sensitive operating expenses of either airline?

you've to to start sometime.

 

[Fly4hire]

Yup. The talks are done. Over.

(ended on the 11th)

It's now up the MEC's to act...or not act.

Both are meeting this week.

Clarification please. WSJ indicates talks are recessed due to MEC meetings this week, which suggests they are not over.

You are saying they are over, suggesting final positions are taken, and it's a up or down vote, no more talks.

Which is it?

 

[Fly4hire]

you've to to start sometime.

Sure, I just think the hysteria to merge due to soaring oil prices is fluff. There may be a number of valid reason to do it, but it's not going to save anyone a nickel in fuel for a long time.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

The only thing that a merger will accomplish in the fuel arena is this. It allows the combined company a better credit rating, this allowing us to hedge at a significantly higher percentage of total fuel required. We will have more cash on hand and a better rating, which will allow us to increase our hedges in the near term. Even if we have a separate balance sheet for each company, both will have their ratings increased immediately due to the possibility of a merger.
Other than this not much.

 

[Occam's Razor]

Clarification please. WSJ indicates talks are recessed due to MEC meetings this week, which suggests they are not over.

You are saying they are over, suggesting final positions are taken, and it's a up or down vote, no more talks.

Which is it?

The WSJ thinks there will be more talks. I disagree with the WSJ.

I think it will take a significant external event to re-convene discussions.

 

[Fly4hire]

The WSJ thinks there will be more talks. I disagree with the WSJ.

I think it will take a significant external event to re-convene discussions.

Is there a SLI proposal that makes boths sides equally unhappy now being deliberated?

 

[FDJ2]

Nevermind, not worth discussing.

 

[Occam's Razor]

Is there a SLI proposal that makes boths sides equally unhappy now being deliberated?

Disclaimer: I don't have a Red Phone to the mucky-mucks. I attend meetings, make phone calls, and know all the key players on both sides. Everybody has done a good job of shielding their cards...but there's enough "public domain" gouge out there to figure most of this out.

I think everybody, save a few "triple-digit" types on both lists, will be upset. How upset depends on their ability to to see the big picture. A few weeks ago, my view was that the SLI would be an easier "sell" to the DAL MEC/pilots, than it would be to ours. Now, based on what I've heard, both sides will be upset. HOW upset, in relative terms? Don't know...don't care.

Here are the facts as I know them:

1. NWA is for sale. No, General Lee, my simian friend, I don't mean it like THAT. Our CEO, who is a mere mouthpiece for our BOD, has stated unambiguously that consolidation is "inevitable". Since we all know about the Golden Share, we know that almost all paths to consolidation lead through MSP.

2. DAL is for sale. No, my Redbutt brothers, I don't mean it like THAT. Anderson, who actually has some leadership strands in his DNA, has made it very clear that DAL will be having unprotected sex with a partner soon.

3. AF/KLM has a pile of Euros they're itching to invest in their Alliance partnership at a time when the Hedge Fund dweebs (Wayzata, Owl Creek, Blackstone, etc) are itching to cut their losses and bail out. That shiny pile of loot won't be spent on just any deal. They are interested in a deal that has easily exploitable operational advantages. The influence of AF/KLM, combined with the "abandon ship!" desire of the short-term investors here, points to a DAL-NWA hook-up.

4. Putting the list together ourselves is better than having an arbitrator do it. We have no control over how an arbitrator will decide. (Can I get an "Amen!" from an LCC brother?) To dissuade us from shouting "Screw it! We'll let the arbitrator tell you how much you're overreaching!", which is ignorance at it's zenith, we've been offered incentives to do the list ourselves.

5. There is no Plan B. There have been no discussions of how to deal with a failure of this process. That increases the vulnerability of both pilot groups to management if/when they force us to consummate this arranged marriage.

If both MEC's can vote on this thing this week, we have a chance to save ourselves from...[Irony Alert!] ourselves.

 

[jke406]

To dissuade us from shouting "Screw it! We'll let the arbitrator tell you how much you're overreaching!", which is ignorance at it's zenith, we've been offered incentives to do the list ourselves.

No, "ignorance at its zenith" would be represented by what NWA pilots are demanding. Pure lunacy.

My Delta friends would be much better served in arbitration than they would by giving up even more than they have already offered, to try to get the stubborn (and deluded) NWA pilots on board.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

So are they back at it? Is there actually a chance of some sort of agreement between the MEC's, or are we where we were last week?
Occam, care to chime in?