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NWA/DAL solving the seniority issue

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And so it begins...

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2008/03/11/airfuel_0312.html


Skyrocketing fuel prices could hurt Delta's credit rating

By RUSSELL GRANTHAM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 03/12/08
Zooming jet fuel prices — which hit new records Tuesday — are once again dimming the prospects for Delta and other airlines.
The spot price of fuel rose another 5 cents to $3.17 per gallon, barely eclipsing the previous record levels in 2005 that helped push Delta and Northwest Airlines into bankruptcy. Both carriers emerged from Chapter 11 last year.
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Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's said Tuesday that the high fuel prices and adverse economic trends are prompting it to review the outlooks on the 10 airlines it follows. A switch to a "negative" outlook for Delta, which now has a positive outlook, could signal that Standard & Poor's will eventually lower its credit ratings if high fuel bills continue to hurt the Atlanta carrier's financial performance. A lower credit rating could reduce Delta's access to capital and increase its borrowing expenses.
Delta Chief Executive Richard Anderson said in a message to employees that the carrier will have to "do what we can" to offset higher fuel bills through fare increases and fuel conservation measures.
"The run-up in fuel prices that we've had in the last three weeks is really unprecedented," he said Friday in the recorded message to employees.
The spot price of jet fuel has risen nearly 16 percent this year. Each penny per gallon increase adds about $25 million to Delta's annual fuel bill, although the airline has also been adding to its fuel-hedge positions to effectively lock in the cost of some of its fuel.
Skyrocketing fuel costs have been a catalyst behind merger talks between Delta and Northwest, which have been on hold while the pilots unions at the two carriers negotiate a related agreement on blending their seniority lists.
The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported that Northwest's pilots union leaders convened a four-day meeting this week to discuss the status of the merger integration talks. A spokeswoman at Delta's pilots union declined to comment.
In a report Monday, UBS analyst Kevin Crissey said such mergers "may be the only way to soften the blow" from high fuel costs, which typically account for about 30 percent of an airline's operating expense. He said he expects a merger deal between Delta and Northwest "in the near term," possibly followed by a deal between United and Continental.
In an interview Tuesday, Standard & Poor's analyst Philip Baggaley said persistently high fuel prices may prod airlines to ground older, less fuel-efficient jets or find other ways to cut costs and boost revenues.
"I think it may increase pressure to move toward a merger, although realistically, it would take months for the benefits of a merger to unfold, and there are also risks," said Baggaley.
He said rapidly rising fuel bills have increased airlines' costs at the same time that the threat of a recession could soon hem in their ability to raise fares.
Jet fuel is typically an airline's biggest expense.
"The airlines over the last two years have been able to offset very substantial increases in fuel costs" through fare increases, said Baggaley. Over the weekend, most big carriers including Delta increased fuel surcharges by $10 on most roundtrip domestic tickets.
"I think that string of successes may come to an end soon," Baggaley said.
 
On the 10th, I wrote:
Latest rumor is that the NWA and DAL MEC members met, but that there was insufficient movement to continue talks.
Occam wrote:
Bad rumor.
Everybody chimed in to support Occam, even the Delta guys. Well now the press finally catches up...
Minneapolist Star Tribune said:
Northwest Airlines and Delta Air Lines pilot leaders adjourned their latest seniority integration talks Tuesday without reaching an agreement.
Don't get me wrong, I like Occam and he adds a lot to the board, but not all Jimmy Buffet fans are alcoholics. Fins to the LEFT!
 
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Fins, you made your post on the 10th, and the talks didn't adjourn until the 11th according to that article. In other words, Occam was still right.
 
It came from the media It has to be true, right? They have been very accurate so far throughout this whole deal, haven't they?:confused:
 
And so it begins...

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2008/03/11/airfuel_0312.html


Skyrocketing fuel prices could hurt Delta's credit rating

The sky is falling everywhere it seems. Great industry we're in, huh?


AP
Ahead of the Bell: Airline Downgrades
Wednesday March 12, 9:01 am ET Analyst Downgrades US Airlines Due to High Fuel Costs; Credit Ratings Potentially at Risk
NEW YORK (AP) -- As oil prices rose to new record levels, analysts said Wednesday that U.S. airlines will face dramatically higher fuel costs, threatening their profits and their credit ratings.
The price of a barrel of oil reached an all-time high of $109.72 on the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker downgraded shares of seven airlines Wednesday, and Standard & Poor's Ratings Service said it will review its outlooks on 10 U.S. airlines.
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Baker cut his ratings on shares of UAL Corp., AMR Corp., US Airways Group Inc., Northwest Airlines Corp. and Alaska Air Group Inc. to "Underweight"
from "Overweight." He also downgraded Delta Air Lines Inc. and Continental Airlines Inc. to "Neutral" from "Overweight." UAL is the parent of United Airlines, and AMR operates American Airlines.
Baker predicted smaller profits or larger losses for most of the domestic airline operators because of the cost of fuel.
"Industry fuel likely to be some $25 billion higher than 2002, overwhelming the $7 billion in labor savings wrought by the Chapter 11 (bankruptcy) cycle," he said. "Consolidation may help longer-term assuming labor doesn't intercept most of the benefit, but getting there may prove scary."
Philip Baggaley of Standard & Poor's said he was reviewing credit outlooks on 10 airlines, as he does not think carriers will be able to raise ticket prices enough to cancel out their greater fuel costs. He said airlines were successful at doing that in 2007, but U.S. economic weakness rules it out for this year.
"The rapid increase in jet fuel prices will add substantially to airline costs at a time when a weakening U.S. economy will make it more difficult to offset those costs with higher fares," he said.
Baggaley said he was most likely to his revise positive ratings on AMR, Delta and US Airways Group.
Airlines generally don't sign long-term contracts that can offer protection from rising oil prices, Baggaley said. Southwest Airlines Co. has a significant amount of its fuel costs hedged, he wrote, and Alaska Air Group Inc. has also hedged some costs.

He cited media reports saying Northwest's fuel costs could run $1.7 billion over budget if oil prices stay at $100 per barrel.
 
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EXPECTATIONS:
Cocknbull can expect to be a 767 FO in the bottom 10% of the seniority list 13 years from now with hardly any attrition in front of him.

Superpilot can to be in the top 50% at the same time.

I was hired at Delta this summer and assuming NO guys leave prior to 65, I will be at 50% on the list with the growth planned through 08 by 2020. If growth continues past 2008 or some guys leave earlier than 65, it only gets better. If you take ALL the growth out of the equation, I'll be at 50% in 2023. I am also already at 94% on the list and should be at 90% before my year mark with the growth. That is hard data based on facts and is far from me or any other DAL newhire being 10% on the list in 13 years. Superpilot may be at 50% in 13 years but so will a DAL newhire if they hire about 400 more this year. If they continue to hire like they have in 07 and 08, a DAL guy will be much better off than any NWA newhire. We do have retirements just not for a few more years. Do some research before you post crap next time.
 
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True, I was hired in Aug 07 and presently at 94.7 % at 94 % with the 50 guys starting Monday. I should be 88-89% by the end of the year.

And to set the record straight on the aircraft issue. Awarded the 7ER out of NYC on the last AE at 68%. Solid line holder.
 
Read Much?

Holding current assignment is "stirring the pot?"
Not directed at holding the assignment. Don't rearrange the post. It was an afterthought directed at the constant pot stirring in the hundreds of other pages dedicated to this dead horse subject.

You exemplify my concern with the NWA pilot group. I say I'd like to remain in my house and you write "not necessarily."
Don't be concerned. Don't want "your house." Just pointed out that your house isn't made of bricks. Before my two furloughs I thought I was pretty safe in my seat with over 10% under me. WRONG! I was just pointing out that with or without this merger, nobody at the bottom 20% of either list (which I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that that would include all post 9-11 hires) is assured of being able to stay in "your house/seat." It could easily happen from furloughs or displacements from within. So a new hire in a 767 really shouldn't have a high expectation of keeping his seat and it isn't because of a merger.

If DAL guys were on the board talking about taking NWA Captain positions that would be "stirring the pot," but they aren't. DAL guys are on the boards hoping that they can keep their base and equipment, they are worried about displacements and their hopes of status quo are answered with "not necessarily." I hope you can see the difference between aggressive and defensive.
See above, pot stirring not directed at that statement.

The bottom line is that the raises, better work rules and friendlier working environment are not appreciated, you want the Delta pilots' jobs too. If a Delta pilot is displaced as a result of my DAL's reduction that is one thing, if they are displaced by a DC9 pilot's planned reduction, that is quite another thing.
NOBODY except the negotiating committee knows how this might play out because it depends on what THEY decide. Don't give yourself a coronary worrying about it until it happens if it happens (unless you are senior to me, then worry away). The NWA side of the house has the same fears you do.

You can be assured that status quo holds the high ground in an arbitration.
It does with me too. Personally, I'm pretty content where I am right now and the last thing on my mind is what angle this merger could give me. I just don't see myself (or many of the other NWA pilots for that matter) looking to "invade" DAL positions even if they could.

I've got a F4 photo dropping Napalm if you would like to use it.
Sure...send it my way and I might use it for an avatar. Always loved the smell of napalm in the morning.
Don't put words in my mouth and don't rearrange my post. I didn't direct that statement at DAL or NWA. It was a neutral post addressing seat security and effects of 9-11 changing the playing field. It caused unprecedented furloughs and downward movement. It changed seat security "expectations" for every airline (except maybe SWA). My intent was to point out that no matter what airline you are at and no matter what seat you hold, unless you are above about the 20% point on the SL, you really don't have any seat security. That is the sad reality of the post 9-11 world we live in and it doesn't matter if there is or isn't a merger. Economic conditions, War, SARS, Bird Flu, Mad Cow Disease, or even $110/barrel oil could start the downward spiral. Mgt has used any excuse they can to "trim the fat" when they see an opportunity. The comments about stirring the pot came at the end and is in reference to the pages and pages of rehashing of unsubstantiated "facts" and carefully place media articles that have no clue what is really happening behind closed doors. I hope we all keep our seats with or without a merger. I'm above 10% with new hires coming in under me and I certainly don't feel like I own my seat yet, and it has nothing to do with merger-mania. It has to do with 2 prior furloughs in a business that doesn't always make sense.

P.S. I like your SLI plan as well. You should send it to your rep. If you don't send it in have someone do it for you and SOON. You'll regret it in the future if you had your chance to make a difference and didn't try. You don't need horsepower to have a good idea.
 
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