The economy will eventually recover but I would not expect fractional as an industry to ever be as large as it was in 2007. Fractional will always be around but its popularity probably peaked in 2007. Fractional ownership was and is a great idea. Fractional will not reach its prior peak not because it is bad but because someone is always “trying to build a better mousetrap”. For the most part NJA “built a better mousetrap” than traditional charter and grew the market for charter. Instead of running a capital intensive charter operation relying upon company owned planes, NJA got the “charter” customers to buy a piece of the plane and pay the fixed regardless of whether the owner actually used the plane. Great idea. Fractional ownership for NJA also eliminated the need and inconsistency of using managed planes on a charter certificate where the planes are all different types, ages and layouts, with differing degrees of safety and maintenance.
Fractional ownership for NJA seized upon the highly fragment and varied charter market. There was no “brand”, no reliability, no standardization, and a lack of confidence by customers and a lack of knowledge by customers. NJA created an industry and a brand which people who never chartered or who weren’t extremely happy with charter operations gained knowledge and became knowledgeable and comfortable with flying privately. It could have been done by buying many airplanes and running a standardized charter fleet but that was prohibitively expensive. So then came the brainstorm to have the customers be responsible for the acquisition and upkeep of the jets. For many years a potential owner had to wait many months to take delivery of his share. Absolutely brilliant. However, somewhere along the line as it became apparent that $$$ could be made buy buying the planes at wholesale prices and selling them in pieces at retail prices that NJA started to have inventory issues. Too many planes. Unfortunately, we know the rest of the story, and some of you know it all too well.
However, the market changed, and better mousetraps keep evolving. After many incarnations, XOJet has seized upon the idea of true “branded” charter, with all the attributes of a brand name. Others are going there as well. Many customers, such as myself, have reduced their shares and now use both fractional and “branded” charter. The advantage of fractional is I am guaranteed a plane when and where I need it. But actually, while it sounds good, I only need this guarantee for a few peak days of the year and some very irregular flights. When I have flexibility or time, I price out XOJet first – if the flight is less expensive than using my fractional share I fly XOJet. Quite frankly for most flights over approximately 2.5 hours XOJet is usually much less expensive. Branded charter can be less expensive (more efficient) because it has the ability to change prices or refuse flights for flights which are less desirable for it to fly (XOJet prices a 1.2 hour flight ridiculously expensive so it either gets a lot of $$$ for the flight or doesn’t fly it). Fractional does not have this ability. If the rental car business went fractional, Hertz would have to guarantee me a car when and where I needed it – it would need many more cars to serve all the owners – instead of just being able to say “sorry – all sold out that day”. Therefore, while “owners” may move a portion of their flights to branded charter (allowing these companies to “cherry pick” the most profitable flights of a fractional operator, while leaving the fractional provider with the very unprofitable Sandusky, Ohio to Ithaca, NY flight.
Fractional is here to stay. But I believe many flyers will have smaller fractions than they had in the past.