Looks like DAL/NWA

[FDJ2]

...or the airline will get the politico's in a bidding war while shoveling money into their campaign funds through lobbying firms. Either way, expect ethical standards which would make a Marcos giggle.

Good point.

 

[FDJ2]

Honestly!

You kids!

1. The UAL piece was a feint. Make it look bigger...then go smaller...and the DOJ approves it.

2. The rumors of breaking up parts of NWA are a gambit by the two of "2/20" hedge fund boys that hold a big chunk of NWA. They paid a premium to buy the pilot's Claim, and are now holding paper that's $8 "underwater". Poor babies!

3. Those two chuckleheads will probably get a "special dividend" in exchange for buying off on the deal. $4-5 a share in the swap might make them happy. KLM/Air France will probably provide the Euros to shut them up...and thereby raise their stake in the combined airline to 25%.

4. The open issues in consummating a deal are like a 2-acre version of the arcade game, "Whack-A-Mole". The state of Minnesota, along with Oberstar and an array of others, will be thrown a bone. It'll be "jobs" or some other promise.

5. The seniority list integration will be painful (Duh!), but only to those whose expectations were formed in the ether of their "Birthright!" cocoons. If everyone's a little pi$$ed, it's a good deal.

6. The Airlinks will be forced to play a bloodthirsty game of "musical chairs". Wish it weren't so...but it will be. Some will blame ALPA. The smart ones will blame Adam Smith. It'll make the $200-million the RJDC "patriots" mocked in 2000 look like a huge missed opportunity. It'll look like that because it was.

7. NWA will release the Golden Share of CAL to appease the DOJ. CAL is more likely to gobble-up UAL than vice versa. (The sound your jaw makes as it drops reading that is spelled "PBGC")

8. The status of hubs, bases, fleets, is "tactical" right now...not "strategic". No one will know "strategic" until the legacies finish this wave of consolidation.

All excellent points. Although I'm not too sure about UAL being just a head feint. They might be a close second choice for dance partner.

I never heard much about breaking up NWA, that must be some local chatter up in MSP.

 

[On Your Six]

So, now that the dance partners have possibly been set (we will wait for official confirmation), what are the odds that the deal will actually get approved? What odds would you give?

 

[~~~^~~~]

Occam, FDJ, and others,

Has anyone figured out how this deal makes financial sense for anyone other than maybe AirFrance / KLM?

Delta earlier announced some sort of a partnership with AirFrance that sounded like codeshare, but was obviously a whole lot more based on AirFrance's donation of Heathrow slots.

If we knew who benefitted, we could probably put more of this puzzle together.

Also - what about scope? Occam brings up the Airlinks and Connection carriers. I'm not sure who this will be a bloodbath for, what about these factors?
- Delta wants out of 50 seat contracts that are not voidable. They renegotiated with Republic holdings to upgrade their E135/145's for E170's to get out of 50 seat obligations
- Delta's VP of Ops said he likes the CRJ700/900 as a stop gap until the new generation 100 seat dreamliner tech airplane is brought to market
- NWA is parking some DC-9's. Obviously that airplane is close in capability to a big RJ, even if the -9 is much more comfortable.
- We all know ALPA's history on outsourcing, talk tough and then "surprise"

I floated the idea of a merger involving the connection / airlink carriers too based on a fleet type merger (staple) with date of acquisition fences/bidding and DOH longevity. No one was very interested.

Anyone else want to see "one list" result from this merger? With everyone brought to the negotiating table with "one" management, seems like there is an opportunity to get some flying back to "mainline" with the eventual goal of someday all flying being performed by pilots on "the" seniority list.

As is always the case the difference between opportunity and furlough is going to be scope.

 

[IXLR8]

Nothing here at MSP...

 

[General Lee]

There is still a gaping hole in the new DL/NWA route structure to be filled, which is LA and or SFO. Merging with United left few future growth opportunities, and added a lot of debt. I am sure UA and CAL will merge as a result, and they will become our chief competitor, and that will necessitate a build up for us in UAL's California stronghold. We have the gates in LAX available, as they are currently occupied by Expressjet ERJs. Any planes displaced from CVG or MEM could go West.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Ben Franklin]

Does anybody have any links to this news? I can't find anything on google or CNBC.

http://www.forbes.com/2006/06/19/delta-pensions-mergers-cx_gl_0619autofacescan07.html


Oh wait, this one was from June, 2006. CnBc is reporting old news (43).

When E.F. Hutton talks - I listen.

Sincerely,

B. Franklin

 

[easydoesit]

Mark my words. THIS DEAL WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

 

[XJohXJ]

Occam, FDJ, and others,

Has anyone figured out how this deal makes financial sense for anyone other than maybe AirFrance / KLM?

Delta earlier announced some sort of a partnership with AirFrance that sounded like codeshare, but was obviously a whole lot more based on AirFrance's donation of Heathrow slots.

If we knew who benefitted, we could probably put more of this puzzle together.

Also - what about scope? Occam brings up the Airlinks and Connection carriers. I'm not sure who this will be a bloodbath for, what about these factors?
- Delta wants out of 50 seat contracts that are not voidable. They renegotiated with Republic holdings to upgrade their E135/145's for E170's to get out of 50 seat obligations
- Delta's VP of Ops said he likes the CRJ700/900 as a stop gap until the new generation 100 seat dreamliner tech airplane is brought to market
- NWA is parking some DC-9's. Obviously that airplane is close in capability to a big RJ, even if the -9 is much more comfortable.
- We all know ALPA's history on outsourcing, talk tough and then "surprise"

I floated the idea of a merger involving the connection / airlink carriers too based on a fleet type merger (staple) with date of acquisition fences/bidding and DOH longevity. No one was very interested.

Anyone else want to see "one list" result from this merger? With everyone brought to the negotiating table with "one" management, seems like there is an opportunity to get some flying back to "mainline" with the eventual goal of someday all flying being performed by pilots on "the" seniority list.

As is always the case the difference between opportunity and furlough is going to be scope.

Well, I'm sure that 90%+ of the pilot lists at Compass and Mesaba would wish to be included in any Merger. It's that or update the resumes.

You'd think ALPA, in their rush to clarify what they need to agree to a merger, would consider saving the jobs of their wholly owned affiliates' pilots to be part of the deal.

Yeah, I know, dream on.

 

[Sedona16]

Not sure if anything significant will be announced or even discussed but DALPA is having a meeting/conference at an Atlanta convention center tomorrow. It will be interesting to see what they say.

 

[Sedona16]

By Del Quentin Wilber
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Despite the thorny political landscape on Capitol Hill, airline executives believe the time is still right to put a deal together, some analysts and consultants said. One reason: They believe they will have an easier time passing regulatory muster under the Bush administration than its successor.

Transportation Secretary Mary E. Peters, who would advise the Justice Department on the affects of an airline merger, signaled that the executives are probably right.

Citing the economic challenges facing the industry, Peters said in an interview that she believes "there is going to be some consolidation. "To the greatest extent that we can let the market work unfettered, the better off we are as a country," she said, adding that her agency would weigh each proposal on a case-by-case basis.

"Generally, airline mergers are not good for airline employees or consumers," said Rep. Jerry F. Costello (D-Ill.), chairman of the House aviation subcommittee, adding that he would hold hearings into any announced deals. "When airlines merge, it means there are fewer airlines, less competition and higher prices. They cause me grave concern."
Sen. Byron L. Dorgan (D-N.D.) expressed similar misgivings, saying, "I don't think any of the airline problems are going to be solved by airlines getting bigger."

Although lawmakers play no official role in the regulatory process, their attitudes can influence the ability of air carriers and financial backers to finish deals.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/21/AR2008012102056_2.html

 

[Truckdriver]

Also - what about scope? Occam brings up the Airlinks and Connection carriers. I'm not sure who this will be a bloodbath for, what about these factors?
- Delta wants out of 50 seat contracts that are not voidable. They renegotiated with Republic holdings to upgrade their E135/145's for E170's to get out of 50 seat obligations
- Delta's VP of Ops said he likes the CRJ700/900 as a stop gap until the new generation 100 seat dreamliner tech airplane is brought to market
- NWA is parking some DC-9's. Obviously that airplane is close in capability to a big RJ, even if the -9 is much more comfortable.
- We all know ALPA's history on outsourcing, talk tough and then "surprise"

I floated the idea of a merger involving the connection / airlink carriers too based on a fleet type merger (staple) with date of acquisition fences/bidding and DOH longevity. No one was very interested.

Anyone else want to see "one list" result from this merger? With everyone brought to the negotiating table with "one" management, seems like there is an opportunity to get some flying back to "mainline" with the eventual goal of someday all flying being performed by pilots on "the" seniority list.

As is always the case the difference between opportunity and furlough is going to be scope.

I think this should be ALPA's top priority during the coming mergers. More good would be done for the careers of all pilots if we could get all 70+ seat flying done by mainline pilots. We all know the -9's are going to be replaced by E-175's and that DAL wants to have lots of CRJ-900's. That is alot of jobs that mainline guys now have. I know it would suck for those at the connection carriers to not have that flying, but in the long run your careers would be better if that flying was done by mainline pilots.

 

[General Lee]

I think this should be ALPA's top priority during the coming mergers. More good would be done for the careers of all pilots if we could get all 70+ seat flying done by mainline pilots. We all know the -9's are going to be replaced by E-175's and that DAL wants to have lots of CRJ-900's. That is alot of jobs that mainline guys now have. I know it would suck for those at the connection carriers to not have that flying, but in the long run your careers would be better if that flying was done by mainline pilots.

Well, Lee Moak continues to BRAG that he can stop any merger. If he wants this to go forward, he had better restore some of the lost wages/rules, save jobs, and tighten scope. Can he do it? I don't know---but he brags that he can stop a merger. Let's see him play hardball. And, job protections are a MUST.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Superpilot92]

I think this should be ALPA's top priority during the coming mergers. More good would be done for the careers of all pilots if we could get all 70+ seat flying done by mainline pilots. We all know the -9's are going to be replaced by E-175's and that DAL wants to have lots of CRJ-900's. That is alot of jobs that mainline guys now have. I know it would suck for those at the connection carriers to not have that flying, but in the long run your careers would be better if that flying was done by mainline pilots.

I 100% agree!!!

 

[Fly4hire]

Well, Lee Moak continues to BRAG that he can stop any merger. If he wants this to go forward, he had better restore some of the lost wages/rules, save jobs, and tighten scope. Can he do it? I don't know---but he brags that he can stop a merger. Let's see him play hardball. And, job protections are a MUST.
Bye Bye--General Lee

Agreed. Any pay raises, equity, etc. mean nothing if it is for a company that needs to "synergize" to the tune of 1000's of jobs lost. Of course they will claim that their will be none, blah, blah, but look at the strength of any no furlough clauses re: Force Majeure.

The hammer will drop slowly after the fact once the party is over.

Watch their feet, not their lips