Looks like DAL/NWA

[~~~^~~~]

Consider that some of these regionals have contracts which can not be cancelled. Others have contracts that can be adjusted with very little notice. SkyWest / ASA & Republic are probably safe. Comair may act like the accumulator since it is directly controlled by Delta and has the most flexibility.

Also consider where NWA's DC-9 flying will go. Some to the remaining DC-9's and 320's, but NWA's fleet is shrinking. I think this will put pressure on the branded carriers to outsource more while they wait for the perfect 100 seat jet to be invented.

While they wait for the 100 seat version of a Dreamliner, managers are happy to try to have their contractors buy "obsolete" aircraft to fill the gap.

I expect less damage to the RJ fleet than what is expected. RJ flying is low profit, but it is also low risk. With so much uncertainty, low risk will be the easier decision to make.

 

[FDJ2]

Will it be a merger, buyout, acquisition, that’s going to be important in the seniority list integrations.

That plays no part in ALPA merger policy.

Also, is it true that the DAL FA’s do NOT have a union??? Is it true that the only Union at DAL is the Pilots????

The DAL FA's are not unionized. The only two unionized groups at DAL are the pilots and the dispatchers.

 

[FDJ2]

very interesting as if NWA closes HQ in MSP b4 the year 2020, a 420 mil fee kicks in immediately. Supposedly iron clad for the state of MN since they paid to build the complex, I am sure that the lawyers will fight it out....

If there is a DAL/NWA merger I'm sure that will be renegotiated. I know it's "ironclad", but it is in MN best interest to keep as many jobs and airservice as possible in MSP. DAL would promise to keep the MSP hub and associated operations intact in exchange for a large part of that $420M and the politicos will declare victory. Problem solved.

 

[~~~^~~~]

...or the airline will get the politico's in a bidding war while shoveling money into their campaign funds through lobbying firms. Either way, expect ethical standards which would make a Marcos giggle.

 

[Princedietrich]

I just noticed that I had a rampaging case of the dummuss when I posted earlier.

I meant to say CVG or MEM, not MSP.

DOH!

 

[Occam's Razor]

Honestly!

You kids!

1. The UAL piece was a feint. Make it look bigger...then go smaller...and the DOJ approves it.

2. The rumors of breaking up parts of NWA are a gambit by the two of "2/20" hedge fund boys that hold a big chunk of NWA. They paid a premium to buy the pilot's Claim, and are now holding paper that's $8 "underwater". Poor babies!

3. Those two chuckleheads will probably get a "special dividend" in exchange for buying off on the deal. $4-5 a share in the swap might make them happy. KLM/Air France will probably provide the Euros to shut them up...and thereby raise their stake in the combined airline to 25%.

4. The open issues in consummating a deal are like a 2-acre version of the arcade game, "Whack-A-Mole". The state of Minnesota, along with Oberstar and an array of others, will be thrown a bone. It'll be "jobs" or some other promise.

5. The seniority list integration will be painful (Duh!), but only to those whose expectations were formed in the ether of their "Birthright!" cocoons. If everyone's a little pi$$ed, it's a good deal.

6. The Airlinks will be forced to play a bloodthirsty game of "musical chairs". Wish it weren't so...but it will be. Some will blame ALPA. The smart ones will blame Adam Smith. It'll make the $200-million the RJDC "patriots" mocked in 2000 look like a huge missed opportunity. It'll look like that because it was.

7. NWA will release the Golden Share of CAL to appease the DOJ. CAL is more likely to gobble-up UAL than vice versa. (The sound your jaw makes as it drops reading that is spelled "PBGC")

8. The status of hubs, bases, fleets, is "tactical" right now...not "strategic". No one will know "strategic" until the legacies finish this wave of consolidation.

 

[Schwanker]

8. The status of hubs, bases, fleets, is "tactical" right now...not "strategic". No one will know "strategic" until the legacies finish this wave of consolidation.

Now--A Jarhead using words like "tactical" and "strategic." Those are 3 syllable words!!! And all along I thought you only knew 4 letter words.

Schwanker

 

[jws717]

With an unstable economy, fuel is dropping and loads will get lighter. Will this allow the RJ to cling to life?

 

[Caveman]

Honestly!

You kids!

1. The UAL piece was a feint. Make it look bigger...then go smaller...and the DOJ approves it.

2. The rumors of breaking up parts of NWA are a gambit by the two of "2/20" hedge fund boys that hold a big chunk of NWA. They paid a premium to buy the pilot's Claim, and are now holding paper that's $8 "underwater". Poor babies!

3. Those two chuckleheads will probably get a "special dividend" in exchange for buying off on the deal. $4-5 a share in the swap might make them happy. KLM/Air France will probably provide the Euros to shut them up...and thereby raise their stake in the combined airline to 25%.

4. The open issues in consummating a deal are like a 2-acre version of the arcade game, "Whack-A-Mole". The state of Minnesota, along with Oberstar and an array of others, will be thrown a bone. It'll be "jobs" or some other promise.

5. The seniority list integration will be painful (Duh!), but only to those whose expectations were formed in the ether of their "Birthright!" cocoons. If everyone's a little pi$$ed, it's a good deal.

6. The Airlinks will be forced to play a bloodthirsty game of "musical chairs". Wish it weren't so...but it will be. Some will blame ALPA. The smart ones will blame Adam Smith. It'll make the $200-million the RJDC "patriots" mocked in 2000 look like a huge missed opportunity. It'll look like that because it was.

7. NWA will release the Golden Share of CAL to appease the DOJ. CAL is more likely to gobble-up UAL than vice versa. (The sound your jaw makes as it drops reading that is spelled "PBGC")

8. The status of hubs, bases, fleets, is "tactical" right now...not "strategic". No one will know "strategic" until the legacies finish this wave of consolidation.

This pains me to admit, but for once I agree with you. One of us is coming to our senses. I just don't know whether it's me or you. That may sound like a backhanded compliment, but it's not. Your post is the best overall summation of how I see this playing out.

 

[reepicheep]

Either pilot group, if sufficiently enraged and motivated, can influence events to the extent that the merger will become too expensive and it will fall apart. That is basically what started the UAL/US merger down the tubes in '00/'01. The key is the extent to which the entire pilot group becomes mobilized.