satpak77
Marriott Platinum Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2003
- Posts
- 3,015
cool
yeah I am with you, didn't want to sound counter-your post but my opinion is:
we may actually see UAL AND US Air shut down completely. This is not beyond reason. Re-visit the post-deregulation era with Apple Air, People's Express, Eastern, PSA, etc.
The market determines who will survive, and the market currently favors cheap seats that take me from point A to point B, multiple times a day, with no major hassles.
If the market forces the shutdown (actually thats the most correct way to say it...) of UAL and US Air, the remaining customers must obviously go to the other carriers. AMR, Frontier, Cactus (and Mesa to some extent) will pick up UAL's traffic. If US Air shuts down, we will see DAL, SWA, Air Tran benefit from more east coast customers.
UAL's asia routes would be beneficial to AMR, whose major hubs are mostly a Latin American/Europe focus. Recall that AMR intentionally expanded at MIA in the 80's when Eastern's pulse was almost a flat line.
What SWA is doing on East Coast in 2004 is what AMR did with Eastern in Miami 20+ years ago. Same airline game, different callsigns.
AMR arguably has the most extensive Latin American network, with CAL a close tie.
The only thing largely untapped by SWA/JBLU/Air Tran is the Mexico market. I think (aside from "quick turn" capability, customs, other nightmares) that any major US city (Atlanta, Dallas, New York) has plenty of Mexico traffic. I think serving Mexico City, a major tourist town (Cancun), and a major business center (Guadalajara or Monterrey), is all that is needed to complete the "mexico portfolio."
my 2 cents
see ya
yeah I am with you, didn't want to sound counter-your post but my opinion is:
we may actually see UAL AND US Air shut down completely. This is not beyond reason. Re-visit the post-deregulation era with Apple Air, People's Express, Eastern, PSA, etc.
The market determines who will survive, and the market currently favors cheap seats that take me from point A to point B, multiple times a day, with no major hassles.
If the market forces the shutdown (actually thats the most correct way to say it...) of UAL and US Air, the remaining customers must obviously go to the other carriers. AMR, Frontier, Cactus (and Mesa to some extent) will pick up UAL's traffic. If US Air shuts down, we will see DAL, SWA, Air Tran benefit from more east coast customers.
UAL's asia routes would be beneficial to AMR, whose major hubs are mostly a Latin American/Europe focus. Recall that AMR intentionally expanded at MIA in the 80's when Eastern's pulse was almost a flat line.
What SWA is doing on East Coast in 2004 is what AMR did with Eastern in Miami 20+ years ago. Same airline game, different callsigns.
AMR arguably has the most extensive Latin American network, with CAL a close tie.
The only thing largely untapped by SWA/JBLU/Air Tran is the Mexico market. I think (aside from "quick turn" capability, customs, other nightmares) that any major US city (Atlanta, Dallas, New York) has plenty of Mexico traffic. I think serving Mexico City, a major tourist town (Cancun), and a major business center (Guadalajara or Monterrey), is all that is needed to complete the "mexico portfolio."
my 2 cents
see ya
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