Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[jetflyer]

T-Bags had the nerve and complete lack of respect for me to post this below on 3/06/2007:

Frankly, not to be offensive, but I’ve forgotten more about petroleum economics than you’ve ever know. You are like a kid with flight sim trying to tell a 747 Capt. that he knows more about aviation. You are exposing yourself to the opinions of others and don’t have the intellectual tools to evaluate the relative merit of their argument.

Grandpa 747 Captain T-Bagger,

I saw you reading this thread about an hour and a half ago.

No reply after the SMACKDOWN I just laid on ya in the PREVIOUS TWO POSTS, by presenting the FACTS?

You can't argue facts can you?

What are you going to say now after your precious NY Times article has been proven complete trash?

What are you going to say to the fact that despite NEAR RECORD NEW OIL being brought online last year (OVER THREE TIMES MORE OIL THAN ANWR WILL EVER PROVIDE WAS BROUGHT ONLINE LAST YEAR) that this NEW OIL couldn't overcome the declines in OLD GIGANTIC OIL fields which is increasing?

You don't have a response.
The facts are unfortunately on my side for a near term worldwide oil production peak, that is why.

Also if you do respond I'm sure it won't be current thinking and it won't be informed. You may bring some of that OLD and WRONG petroleum economic theory out though.

Go ahead, BRING ON that ancient wisdom of yours..........
(We've all been waiting)

Jet

p.s. I usually show everyone respect, even those that I don't think are right, but T-Bags has continually degraded me and shown NO respect towards me. I think for now on I will completely take off the gloves towards the T-Bagger FOOL.

 

[T-Bags]

"As paper money inflates away, gold and silver will keep their value."

"Here's something you didn't know: Copper isn't a precious metal. Wow there's one of the 40 things you T-Bags will learn today! "

So son, when was it that I said copper was a precious metal? but since you are going to lecture me on the economics of gold, could kindly explain some of the risk mitigation techniques utilized by the gold industry? What's a spot deferred contract? Thanks for the help!!

Keep their value eh? So from Oct 1982 to Oct 1992, what did gold prices do?

What did the Dollar do?

Well, let's see.... the dollar trade weighted exchange rate decreased by 31% (ie DECREASED IN VALUE)
During the same period NOMINAL DOLLAR GOLD prices DECREASED by 18.5%

During the same period, cumulative inflation (as measured by the cpi) was 44.3%

So if you are to slow to get this THE REAL VALUE OF GOLD WAS CUT IN HALF DURING A 10 YEAR PERIOD OF LARGE INCREASES IN GOVT DEBT AND A DECLINING DOLLAR VALUE!

But let me guess, some slick snake oiler is on one of your conspiracy websites trying to convince all the modern neo-Malthusians that they can make money during the coming android oil wars. How clear does the proof need to be?

As to oil, during the first 10 weeks of 2007, U.S. domestic oil production is UP 5.2%
Net crude oil imports are DOWN 5.5% and even more remarkably crude oil prices are DOWN 6.7% YOY.

Now let me be clear. I am in no way saying oil production has not "peaked" the simple truth is I DON'T KNOW. Guess what, so has the production of asbestos. What you still seem to lack an understanding of is the theoretical basis of the entire peak oil theory. It is NOT based on geology. It was based on a standard normal statistical distribution. With out getting into the follies of that on a theoretical basis (why not a lognormal distribution?), you need to understand that production can decline for any number of reasons, and likely does, and at some level there is some validity in the attempt to model the situation in that way. What you don't get is that there are TWO SIDES TO THE SITUATION.

The current edition of The Economist talks of efforts to convert trees to alcohol. Currently, the cost (due to high enzyme prices) is high. But the goal is to make it cheaper than corn and sugar derived ethanols. Doing so could eliminate entirely some nation’s oil imports. Spring for a copy (or if you get a seat in first class while jumpseating, STEAL one ).

So you understand, I was reading about peak oil before it was "cool". my exposure dates back to 2000-2001. I ACTIVELY searched for EVERYTHING I could find that was written by Simmons. The change? I realized IT DOESN'T F'N MATTER!!

Do some REAL research. Read some REAL economic journals. sign up for a class. I admire your tenacity, but quit frankly, your one step away from saying 'yes preacher Jim, I'll drink the Kool-Aid'. You seem to have reached a point that you are incapable of questioning the validity of your "prophets"

Oh, and by the way, I have thing called broadband. It's really cool. You don't pay by the minute and you don't tie up a phone line. You don't even need one of those neat cradles you attach the handset of your phone to. So I can be logged on to a site (or several) and walk away at any time to do something much more important like watch judge Judy or take a dump....just so you know where you are in the hierarchy. If you've noticed, I don't post that much here. I typically do it only when I know WTF I'm talking about and the other person doesn't. You've got about as many responses in the thread alone than I have in a few years here. My past rants have been at tye webb over whether UAL would survive (I was right and he was wrong) and to the entire blue Kool-Aid club that growth wouldn't continue at the same rate and the day would come when the legacies would make money and they wouldn't, and that Dave REALLY DOESN'T care about them. My record has been pretty accurate. It seems like every time you post, the price of oil and gold goes down.....

 

[Phaedrus]

Welcome to Jonestown. Population: 1

 

[jetflyer]

As to oil, during the first 10 weeks of 2007, U.S. domestic oil production is UP 5.2%

What is your source?

Net crude oil imports are DOWN 5.5%

This has been predicted if the world has peaked.

From: http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/article/19032004.html

“A dollar bill put under the mattress 101 years ago would today have only 4.2 percent of its 1900 purchasing power, that is, four cents in 1900 had the same purchasing power as $1 in 2000.” Said another way - that’s a loss of 95%.

The dollar loses its value as well....

I said the comment about copper, because I've been saying buy precious metals and then you gave me a hard time about what you thought the price of copper would do. I'm not buying copper....

Also central banks are buying gold all across the world, and in economic hard times like the 1970's when people lose faith in fiat currencies because of inflation people tend to buy precious metals. We're going to see a lot more purchases of precious metals.

Also gold is up 250% since 1999. I wouldn't call that shabby.
Oil is up 570% since 1999.

I don't think you'll be right this time about peak oil.

Even you T-Bags say you think we might be at peak oil now.

I simply give a DOE expert more credibility than you T-Bags. Sorry. I just think he looked into more factors and considered more things than you. The DOE experts said that if peak oil is now we're essentially going to have a great depression develop slowly over a couple years.

The price won't really start going up until people need oil and it's not there. I believe that will be this summer driving season, since the inventories are being drawn upon so quickly right now and Saudi Arabia won't be able to provide extra oil this year.

What I've been arguing forever is that we need to expedite through government help the shift away from oil. We need to encourage electric cars, coal to oil, nuclear, drilling in ANWR, drilling off all coasts, biofuels that are worth a dang, etc.

Why is it a bad thing to expedite away from oil, instead of waiting till the peak does occur, just in case the DOE is correct?

I simply think this is going to be a lot worse than you, and I think war is our future. Those ethanol projects won't be brought on fast enough to make much of a difference.

Do you think that extra ethanol from TREES will make a difference by the summer driving season this year to keep the price of oil from rising a lot if Saudi Arabia is past their peak oil? Of course the answer is NO.

Jet

 

[T-Bags]

"What is your source?"

www.eia.doe.gov

"Net crude oil imports are DOWN 5.5%- This has been predicted if the world has peaked."

Yet prices are DOWN YOY!! Are you slow? I went by the gas station. there were no lines. They were willing to sell me all the gas I wanted.

“A dollar bill put under the mattress 101 years ago would today have only 4.2 percent of its 1900 purchasing power, that is, four cents in 1900 had the same purchasing power as $1 in 2000.” Said another way - that’s a loss of 95%. "

Really? Wow. I guess if I had been recommending folks put money inot shoe boxes that may be a valid point....

What's a dollar that was put into the stock market in 1900 worth now? Keep in mind, that's a market that's gone thru numerous recessions, a worldwide depression, 2 world wars, and several skirmishes.

Also gold is up 250% since 1999. I wouldn't call that shabby.
Oil is up 570% since 1999.

Yeah oil is up from under $10 a barrel. And gold is up from around $200.... So basically it hasn't yet reached a breakeven point for the idiots who ran out and stock up the last time gold spiked on the end of the world warning from your "prophets". You want to know a little secret? I'm not always against mineral speculation. I recommended Uranium (ironically to a bunch of gold hound pilots) back in 2003. Check that return vs your "bling".

I simply give a DOE expert more credibility than you T-Bags. Sorry. I just think he looked into more factors and considered more things than you. The DOE experts said that if peak oil is now we're essentially going to have a great depression develop slowly over a couple years.

So you pick one DOE idiot and ignore the rest? What is the OFFICIAL USGS estimate for when peak oil will happen? Let me know when you figure it out.

The price won't really start going up until people need oil and it's not there. I believe that will be this summer driving season, since the inventories are being drawn upon so quickly right now and Saudi Arabia won't be able to provide extra oil this year.

So quickly? You'd better recheck your data. We've got PLENTY of inventories

Do you think that extra ethanol from TREES will make a difference by the summer driving season this year to keep the price of oil from rising a lot if Saudi Arabia is past their peak oil? Of course the answer is NO.

Do you really think the House of Saud is that STUPID? Do you really think that if they (by your own admissions, the only ones who know for SURE what reserves they have) knew there wouldn't be enough oil this summer, they'd already be stockpiling it at home to get higher prices today AND this summer? Never mind. You won't believe anything that doesn't come off the cult website "oildumb.com"?

Oh and lighten up francis...

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,

www.eia.doe.gov-- LINK DOES NOT WORK. Can you also show me the quote from the EIA or DOE? Which ever it is....

You obviously haven't read the DOE Report on Peak Oil. They DO NOT PREDICT A PEAK DATE! I've told you this about 8 times. Are this forgetful or can you not read. They talk about what peak oil would mean to the economies if it occured today, 10 years from now, or 20 years from now.

You also have not read the Oil Drum Analysis on Saudi Arabia's production having peaked.....

How can we have an intelligent conversation if you won't read the two most important sources I'm trying to show you?

This is why I keep banging my head against the wall when I see what you have to say. You're ignorant on this subject, since you won't even take the time to read the sources I provide.

Also the inventories are no longer at record highs. They're being drained at the fastest rate in 10 years right now. Worldwide inventories are being drawn down at 1.6 MBD right now, during an off season for oil.

If the world can't increase production this 1.6 MBD drawdown will become much larger.

Oh and stop mentioning short term price moves. The shortages won't be felt till the demand really goes up for summer driving season. I've continually said this.

Wall Street also thinks the slowing economy is going to reduce demand for oil, so the price is going down right now in the short term. The funny thing is since the price is going down demand is increasing now, making the inventories dissapear even faster. This will make the supply situation that much worse come driving season.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,

I got the EIA website to work. I couldn't find the production for the first 10 weeks, but I did find this trend for U.S. crude oil field production:
From:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus1A.htm

Crude Oil Production numbers from the DOE site for the U.S.:
1970 Production: 9.6 MBD average<---PEAK OIL USA (more than Saudi)
1980 Production: 8.6 Million barrels per day
1990 Production: 7.4 MBD
2000 Production: 5.84 MBD
2001 Production: 5.80 MBD
2002 Production: 5.75 MBD
2003 Production: 5.68 MBD
2004 Production: 5.43 MBD
2005 Production: 5.18 MBD
2006 Production: 5.13 MBD

The highest the USA ever reached was 10.04 MBD in November 1970, more than Saudi Arabia has and will ever pump in a month.

Notice the trend has continued to fall even the last couple years with high oil prices?

T-Bags, the conspiracy theorist, thinks the USA is CHOOSING to pump less oil year after year because of economic reasons. I hope people don't really listen to you T-Bags.....

What is scary is that since Saudi has used Enhanced Oil Recovery Techniques extensively to keep Ghawar's production high like was done in the North Sea, Australia, Mexico, etc. the decline rates are going to be just as immense.

Last year alone Saudi's production fell 8% from 9.5 to 8.7 MBD. It took the USA 10 years to see those declines! This happened in Saudi in one year.

Saudi's decline would have trended at a 14% rate if they hadn't added over 300,000 barrels a day of production from the Haradh III project. 14%!!!

This isn't unheard of. The Red Sea has been declining around 13% per year and Australia around 14%. Of course Mexico's Cantarell is seeing something close to a 20% decline rate!

These countries and fields are seeing incredible declines because they used Enhanced Oil Recovery techniques, which are really nothing but SUPER STRAWS to suck the oil out faster till the very end. Then like sucking a drink with a straw out of a cup, when you get to the end you start getting nothing but air.

Jet

 

[T-Bags]

LINK DOES NOT WORK. Can you also show me the quote from the EIA or DOE? Which ever it is....

I don't like to quote people. People have agenda's. Numbers don't. This may take a little math or at least a basic knowledge of excel for you to figure out...

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wcrfpus2w.htm

T-Bags, the conspiracy theorist, thinks the USA is CHOOSING to pump less oil year after year because of economic reasons. I hope people don't really listen to you T-Bags.....

No, in the U.S. we have chosen not to DRILL in many areas because of dumb@ss leftest...ironically some of the same complete idiots (deffreys comes to mind) that now wear the "peak oil" mantle. Don't listen to me. I don't care. The only thing it's gonna cost me is all the extra taxes I'll have to pay to support all the idiots who blew their retirement funds on your BS unsubstantiated "theories". I just don't get it. I've shown you repeatedly that your "theories" are BULLSH1T! As one of the articles stated Peak Oil production per person happened a LONG time ago. Yet we got RICHER!! Worldwide GDP grew by 5.6% last year WHILE OIL PRODUCTION DECREASED. YOU'RE WRONG. IT WAS A NONEVENT IF IT WAS TRULEY THE PEAK, and even more idiotic if it wasn't. Get help.

 

[jetflyer]

From Canadian TV CBC: Your Basic Peak Oil Story
6 minute Youtube Canadian TV CBC video clip on Peak Oil:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9TN3yq2U64&eurl=http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/2402

You're going to start seeing a lot more of these clips. Especially since Global Peak Oil happened last year in August at 85.1 mbd. The shortages will be felt at the summer driving season.

Stuart Staniford's Analysis from the energy blog www.theoildrum.com that Saudi Arabia is past their peak oil can clearly be seen on Paul's personal computer in the interview.

Saudi Arabia has been declining since late 2005 and has gone from 9.5 million barrels a day to 8.5 mbd now. The declines have been linear only slowing when new fields were brought online.

Links to Stuart's analysis that Saudi Arabia has peaked can be found here and here.

I don't feel like discussing peak oil right now, so if someone posts I probably won't answer,
Jet

 

[Mamma]

OK, I'll admit I don't know all the facts on peak oil but I look around and just don't see it. Why is Boeing getting record aircraft sales? Why is Virgin American starting? Why is the military buying new C-17s, Raptors, tanks and Strykers that are supposed to last thirty years? Why did operators buy 320,000 new semi trucks in the US alone last year? These all use tons of petroleum base fuel.
Do these folks not see the impending disaster? Why are they investing in their own doom? Why buy semi's, 787s and C-17s if they are going to be sitting on the ramp/docks next summer due to no fuel being available?
It is my opinion there is always someone yelling that the world is going to end as we know it. Peak oil, global warming, global cooling, over-population, bird flu, AIDS, Saddam, nuclear proliferation, Yellowstone cauldron, earthquakes, tsunamis, meteors, aliens and 2012. I say, just live your life and roll with the punches. If it makes you feel good, dig a cement bunker in your back yard and fill it with canned tomatoes, guns, gold and porn. Lots and lots of porn. Just my opinion.