Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[Secret Squirrel]

Global inventories are supposed to be drawn down 6.5% this 4th quarter according to the EIA because demand is going to be 85mbd and supply 88mbd.

The inventories can't continue to be drawn down this long forever can they? The supply/demand situation is only supposed to worsen.

Jet

It is funny you quote the EIA when they do not predict peak oil until the end of the 21st century.

You are doing exactly what all those crazy fear mongering links you post. You cherry pick stats from legitimate research to support lunatic articles.

 

[jetflyer]

Secret Squirrel,

Do you mean like this?

The U.S. Army came out with this study in 2006.

Are they some crazy fear mongering organization ?

It's amazing how right they've been so far.

Here is the U.S. Army PEAK OIL study:
http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf
Quotes from the study:

.The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years. As worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will cause even more significant price increases and security risks. One can only speculate at the outcome from this scenario as world petroleum production declines.

Currently, non-OPEC nations have been at maximum production and will most likely peak as predicted.

Oil Wars?

.Demand now exceeds production and we are seeing that effect on prices. After the peak is reached, geopolitics and market economics will result in significant price increases above what we have seen to date. Security risks will also rise. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.

Reduced demands caused by high prices may delay the peak slightly, but the peak is certainly within sight.

The rapid and expansive growth of the economy was based on cheap and abundant energy. Little thought and planning have been given to how to transition to the realities of the 21st Century when petroleum and natural gas resources will become depleted.

Quote:

One thing is certain: it is going to be challenging and comprehensive approaches to energy issues are required. Uncertainty cannot be an excuse for inaction. Integrated resource planning is required and issues must be addressed from both the supply and demand viewpoint. The U.S. cannot drill its way to energy independence nor can we do it all with renewables and efficiency. A secure, reliable, and cost effective energy system must be robust, diverse, and aggressively incorporate renewables, energy efficiency, and intelligent use of fossil fuels.

 

[jetflyer]

Secret Squirrel,

Here is another crazy fear monger talking about peak oil:

Here is an article by Lt. Colonel John M. Amadon:
"America’s strategic imperative: a “Manhattan Project” for energy"

He calls for a Manhattan Project on energy so we can avoid oil wars from PEAK OIL and really emphasizes COAL to OIL.

Coal to oil is one of the best solutions for America but not enough is being done on this front.

From the Lt. Col. in the article:

.Military and economic efforts to expand oil access in the Caspian Basin, like our actions over the past 60 years in the Persian Gulf, could bring the United States into conflict with energy-hungry regional powers such as China and India. Played out far from traditional U.S. supply lines, clashes would minimize our advantages in naval and air power and depend largely on ground forces and asymmetric warfare.

The current world energy situation poses a national threat unparalleled in 225 years. The economy, particularly the transportation component, has become heavily dependent on foreign oil. Concurrent with rising demand are indications that world production may soon peak, followed by permanent decline and shortage. Moreover, most of the remaining oil is concentrated in distant, politically hostile locations, inviting interdiction by enemies.

Lt. Col. Amadon in the article, gives good descriptions of the problems of peak oil, and why it is critical for the security of America to move away from oil. He also talks about how it is too difficult for the U.S. to successfully secure the oil of the world militarily for our use.


I hate these fear mongers.....
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

From the Fear Mongering Department of Energy Report on Peak Oil:

"PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT"
Click here for the report: http://www.bartlett.house.gov/upload...sch_report.pdf
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader Roger Bezdek, MISI Robert Wendling, MISI

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

.The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past energy crisis experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis.

.Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action would leave the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.

.Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.

Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.

The obvious conclusion from this analysis is that with adequate, timely mitigation, the economic costs to the world can be minimized. If mitigation were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), which would translate to significant economic hardship.

There will be no quick fixes. Even crash programs will require more than a decade to yield substantial relief.

.The development of the US economy and lifestyle has been fundamentally shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Oil scarcity and several-fold oil price increases due to world oil production peaking could have dramatic impacts ... the economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale.

MARKET FORCES WON'T FIX THIS PROBLEM ALONE:

.Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. But the process will not be easy. Expediency may require major changes to ... lengthy environmental reviews and lengthy public involvement.

Despite arguments from the major oil companies and producer nations new finds of oil are not replacing oil consumed each year. Despite the advances in technology reserves are becoming increasingly difficult to replace.

....world moving from a long period in which reserves additions were much greater than consumption, to an era in which annual additions are falling increasingly short of annual consumption. This is but one of a number of trends that suggest the world is fast approaching the inevitable peaking of conventional world oil production.

He's talking about recessions, depressions and shortages:

.If mitigation were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction.

Sound like today's events?:

.As world oil peaking is approached, excess production capacity ... will disappear, so that even minor supply disruptions will cause increased price volatility as traders, speculators, and other market participants react to supply/demand events

Oil could become the price setter in the broader energy market, in which case other energy prices could well become increasingly volatile and unpredictable.

.The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.

Now do you understand why after the Project Manager Robert Hirsh spoke to Congress about his findings, this study was swept under the rug?

It has never received any mention in the mainstream media, because the conclusions are so startling and because of what we're doing in the Middle East.

Squirrel,
The EIA, which is part of the DOE doesn't want to make the world think the U.S. is getting involved in the Middle East for oil. If they came out and said "We're at Peak Oil" well the whole world would hate us more than they do now and know we're in the middle east for the Black Gold....

Jet

 

[crxpilot]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling...........{yawn}

 

[jetflyer]

Crx,
Please grow up. This is a serious issue. Don't visit this thread if you don't want to read anything about peak oil, supply/demand issues, or increasing fuel costs.

Thank you,
Jet

 

[crxpilot]

Crx,
Please grow up. This is a serious issue. Don't visit this thread if you don't want to read anything about peak oil, supply/demand issues, or increasing fuel costs.

Thank you,
Jet

Grow up? Do you listen to yourself, NUTBALL? Oil is a finite resource, we get it. And guess what? I enjoy flying my gas guzzling jet airplane around blowing out carbons out the wazoo. Does that make you cringe? I bet when you walk into a room, people groan.....am I right?

 

[jetflyer]

I enjoy flying my gas guzzling jet airplane around blowing out carbons out the wazoo. Does that make you cringe? I bet when you walk into a room, people groan.....am I right?

Crx,
I too enjoy flying my gas guzzler and also enjoy driving my 8 cylinder gas guzzler, even though I am getting a hybrid soon. I say gun it hard while oil is cheap! Take those long drives across the country while gasoline is still relatively cheap! You'll regret it if you don't....

I hardly ever talk about peak oil in my personal life. My friends and family believe peak oil is a serious issue and have adjusted their investments accordingly. We have much better things to talk about. I do have a life!

Flightinfo.com is simply a major outlet for my fears and a way that I feel like I may be helping others.

Thank you for your concerns. You're such a nice and thoughtful gentleman,
Jet

 

[UALjan15]

CRX--

I've looked at at a few times, tried both eyes open, one eye closed, upside down, etc. Still, I can't figure out what the heck that avatar is all about. It looks like the remnants of a "cowstrike."

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

These nutbags remind me of the people on those chemtrail and UFO sites.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Not one of those posts said peak oil is here. The EIA does not expect peak oil until the middle to end of this century. This is the agency that researches and speaks for the government on energy issues. But this is based on todays technology which is the huge variable. There are so many other viable technologies which could completely change the time line and they state so. You are an alarmist and are cherry picking quotes from sites or looking at the black helicopter sites for your information. Take a deep breath, step back from the computer, and go fill up you SUV to drive to your flying job so you can pay for your winter gas bill.

 

[JetFumes]

Hey Jet, if your so concerned about peak oil, why continue flying. Time to get a new career I think.

 

[jetflyer]

The whole article is below so I don't get accused of anything. T. Boone thinks we've passed peak oil.

Oct. 19, 2007, 5:43PM
Boone Pickens says oil on its way to $100 a barrel

By JOHN PORRETTO AP Business Writer
© 2007 The Associated Press

HOUSTON — Legendary Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens sees the price of oil hitting $100 a barrel perhaps as soon as the fourth quarter but certainly sometime next year, a consequence of daily global oil production reaching its peak.

The 79-year-old former wildcatter, who now heads the Dallas-based hedge fund BP Capital Management LP, said Friday afternoon he has no doubt worldwide demand has topped the current global output of roughly 85 million barrels a day. As such, he said, prices have nowhere to go but up.

"I think you'll reach $100 (a barrel) before you go back to $80," Pickens said before speaking at a gathering of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas at a downtown hotel. "It could happen in the fourth quarter, but you'll see it within a year."

Crude prices have climbed 28 percent since late August, passing $90 a barrel for the first time in overnight trading Thursday. Light, sweet crude for November delivery eventually fell 87 cents to settle at $88.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Pickens is credited with a history of prescient predictions about the direction of oil markets, and his bets have paid off handsomely. BP Capital, which focuses on energy-related investments, began a decade ago with $125 million and now manages about $4.5 billion.

Still, many industry and government analysts are far less pessimistic about the prospects for the global oil supply than the billionaire Pickens. Experts disagree about when daily oil output will reach its maximum level — or whether it has done so already. The federal Government Accountability Office reported in March that most studies have found oil production will reach a peak sometime between now and 2040.

Going forward, Pickens said, rising demand will be met by higher prices rather than ever-larger crude production. "Any alternative fuel has a chance," he said, though he's betting big on wind.

In June, Pickens announced plans to build the world's largest wind farm in West Texas. He said the gradual switch from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources is going to require a fundamental change in the world, "and it will impact lifestyle."

As for his wind project, which could cost as much as $6 billion, Pickens hopes to have it up and running in eight years.

Pickens started his career in the 1950s as a petroleum geologist, formed his reputation in the following decades as the founder of Mesa Petroleum Co. and assured his legendary status in the 1980s with attempts to acquire major oil companies.

It's not that big of a deal. It's just simple supply/demand. If there's less supply than demand the price will go up to fairly distribute the commodity.

It's a good thing that the price is rising because now alternatives to oil will aggressively be pursued.

I hope they hurry so I can keep driving my gas guzzling car and keep flying my gas guzzling airplane.

I love to burn FOSSIL FUELS!!!!!

I disagree with Pickens that we'll see $100 before $80. I think we'll see $80 again first. This run up has driven prices up too high too quickly. I think we'll probably drop from here down to the 50 day moving average for West Texas Intermediate which is down at $78/barrel currently. There should be a good correction beginning soon.

Over 50% of the experts consulted for the U.S. GAO study said Peak Oil production should be between now and the next 10 years.

More and more of the same experts are saying 2005 was the peak oil year for planet Earth. Ever since that date conventional oil production has been falling. Total liquids production peaked in 2006 so far which includes natural gas liquids and ethanol.

Look at this latest study to find out that we should stay on a peak oil plateau till about 2009 and then decline by about 4% per year:
Latest Forward looking Country by Country study on future oil production

Jet

 

[RP170]

CRX--

I've looked at at a few times, tried both eyes open, one eye closed, upside down, etc. Still, I can't figure out what the heck that avatar is all about. It looks like the remnants of a "cowstrike."

I think it's a guy's head in the background with a cat's head in front of it.

 

[crxpilot]

I think it's a guy's head in the background with a cat's head in front of it.

That's it!