Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[PCL_128]

The BBC isn't any more balanced than the other two. The most balanced news I've seen is the News Hour with Jim Lehrer, but even that has a slight liberal bias, no matter how hard Jim tries to hide it. Sean Hannity has it right: it's impossible for any newscaster or network to not have a bias. Bias is simply inherent to the human mind. You can try to hide it as much as possible, but it will always shine through at some point.

 

[JPAustin]

While these deposits do exist, what is the cost of extracting them? If it were easy, and more importantly, cheap to convert the shale to a liquid combustible form it would be happening now. What some people fail to realize is that even a 10% increase in production costs has significant economic ramifications around the world. Production from known reserves (Saudi Arabia, etc.) will undoubtedly decrease over time, what replaces them will be what determines our future.

Additionally, in the time it would take to excavate that oil, OPEC can implement cartel pricing to increase the ROI for American firms excavating that shale. In other words, OPEC has a lot of power to make North American shale look very expensive vis a vis ethanol and biodiesel for American energy firms to develop. Where should the R&D go? The ROI makes that decision.

Hmm, perhaps if the federal law allowed exploration and excavation to begin some 2 decades ago, this might not be so much of a problem. For that matter, had there not been so much issue with nuclear power some 2 decades ago, this might not be so much of a problem.

Environmentalism is great, but when we listen to the radical wackos, the future is in peril. (Not saying you are a radical wacko there Rick )

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

We need to start riding the nuclear horse as soon as possible.

It's the only practical way we have now, in the US, to produce enough electricity to fill the gap until renewables can take over.

cliff
YIP

 

[jetflyer]

1 minute Youtube interview of Texas Billionaire T. Boone Pickens. He explains in the simplest terms possible why we're seeing the price of oil rise:
Click Here: "...the price has to go up..."

From the ASPO October 2007 Conference.

 

[jetflyer]

With oil at $96 scaring people, Peak Oil expert Matthew Simmons, advisor to Dick Cheney, and Chairman of Simmons & Company, spoke Friday on CNBC.
Here is the 4 minute interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0P8yQSTU74


What I find interesting is that otherwise reasonable and intelligent people like CNBC's Joe Kernen are too lazy to do some basic research on this topic.

Joe Kernan believes the myth that the tar sands will be much greater than is possible.

Here is an explanation of the tar sands potential from Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist for ARC Financial Corporation based in Calgary, Canada. He examined the potential of Canadian oil sands in
Canadian Oil Sands - Myth and Reality (2006):

“As investment in the Canadian oil sands ratchets up, so too do the myths and expectations. Some are speculating that this secondary and synthetic oil resource is the cure-all for the world’s growing addiction to oil, a resource that soon will be producing more than Saudi Arabia. Others are taking the argument further and viewing oil sands as the magic bullet that will pound the price of oil back down to U.S. $40/bbl or less. Don’t bet on any of it.

The big mistake is assuming that Canada’s vast oil-sands reserves can be turned into large production volumes in a time frame and a manner similar to conventional oil. On more than one occasion recently, I have heard people talk about oil-sands production reaching 10 million BOPD [barrels of oil per day] by the middle of next decade. Here is the reality: If all announced projects come on line on time, then Canadian oil-sands production may reach about 4.1 million BOPD by 2017. But the probability that everything goes according to plan, and that all projects are on time and on budget, is next to nil.

The region is remote, with major stresses and strains because of a perennial shortage of labor, services, equipment, and materials. Logistical problems are acute and it is well documented that the situation is going to get worse. One doesn’t need a spread sheet or calculator to figure this out. Merely recognizing that Fort McMurray is a small, remote town that is at the end of a very long (and still narrow) highway should tell you that the technical challenges, let alone social issues, are daunting. Pushing more than U.S. $65 billion worth of steel, equipment, and labor—and that is only the direct investment that is expected over the next 10 years—up this constricted highway is akin to pushing a herd of elephants through a door.

The realistic estimate for what level of total production can be achieved by 2015 is no more than 3 million BOPD, which is only an incremental 2 million BOPD greater than volumes being produced today. So, putting things into perspective, what is likely to be achieved in the Canadian oil sands over the next 10 years is roughly equal to a little more than one year’s worth of global oil demand growth (emphasis added). Certainly, it is no panacea for the world’s growing addiction to oil or for mitigating U.S. energy dependence.”

According a study by the Canadian National Energy Board, “Canada’s Oil Sands, Opportunities and Challenges to 2015: An Update” (2006) [the Canadian National Energy Board is the energy department of the national government of Canada], there are significant obstacles in reaching the production goal of 3 million barrels of oil per day by 2015:
“The rate of development will depend on the balance that is reached between the opposing forces that affect the oil sands. High oil prices, international recognition, geopolitical concerns, global growth in oil demand, size of the resource base and proximity to the large U.S. market, and potentially other markets, encourage development. On the other hand, natural gas costs, the high light/heavy oil price differential, management of air emissions and water usage, insufficient labour, infrastructure and services are concerns that could potentially inhibit the development of the resource. There is now a clearer understanding that large water withdrawals from the Athabasca River for mining operations during the winter could impact the ecological sustainability of the river. As well, it is uncertain if land reclamation methods currently employed will be successful. These issues have moved to the forefront of environmental concerns. Regions associated with oil sands development enjoy several economic benefits but at costs to the social well-being of the communities, including a shortage of available housing and stress on public infrastructure and services. There is currently a limited supply of skilled workers in Alberta, and this tight labour market is expected to continue in the near future.”

And, when the U.S. experiences natural gas shortages, which could happen with any cold winter, the oil sands will have reduced natural gas for processing the oil sands.

So in 8 years we should have enough of an increase in tar sands oil to have helped increase supply enough to cover one year's worth of global oil demand growth. What about the other 7 years?

Oh and if oil has peaked and we see a conservative 3% per year decline, that 2 million barrel increase in 8 years will keep oil production flat for one year. What about the other 7 years?

People,
Do some homework on this. Educate yourselves. Tell your politicians. Let's get these idiots to take some action in helping encourage drilling, conservation, public transportation, etc.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

3 minute Video:
Britain's ITV News warns on oil supplies

The mainstream 10:30pm ITV news in the UK discusses the "peak oil" documentary Crude Awakening, hears the IEA warming of much higher oil prices and speaks to David Strahan (lastoilshock.com)

Another NON-U.S. news piece on peak oil.

 

[jetflyer]

Hi!

This is it. Peak Oil is here now. I think the fractionals are looking better and better.

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2007/02/20/0220bizoil.html

Relentless economic pressures will send oil — now selling for just under $60 a barrel — steadily toward the stratosphere, Hamilton said. "If Saudi Arabia is in decline, then oil is way too cheap."

Saudi Arabia, the Elephant in the closet of oil production, is in decline. GM/Ford/Chrysler better pull out all the stops in getting fuel efficient vehicles and/or alternative fuel vehicles in showrooms NOW, or one or more of them is going Chapter 7.

cliff
LRD

Interesting prediction Cliff You were looking like a goat when oil went to $50 but a genius now unfortunately!

Sorry to bring this post back to life everyone but we took a lot of heat for telling you guys that the oil price would be going up. Called doomsdayers, scaremongers, etc. We're simply trying to help you guys prepare. Take the information and do with it what you think is best but we were right and will be right about it going even higher.....

I think the price of oil is about to drop back to $100, consolidate, and then move back up to new highs. I recommend buying when it gets close to $100. Buy oil stocks, mutual funds, futures, etc. Just trying to help!!!

This below is also an interesting article by Goldman Sachs today. I think they're peak oil believers:
Information about what Goldman Sachs said today about oil prices from Marketwatch:

.Oil rallies past $127 on increased price forecast
Goldman Sachs raises oil-price view to $141; retail gasoline soars to record
By Myra P. Saefong & Polya Lesova, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rallied toward $128 a barrel Friday to mark their highest level as Goldman Sachs raised its oil forecast for the second half of the year by 32%.

Crude oil for June delivery climbed $2.73, or 2.2%, to $126.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract, which expires at the end of trading on May 20, closed out last week at $125.96.
June crude traded as high as $127.82 Friday in electronic trading.

"Goldman Sachs issued another bullish report, this time from their commodity department after last week's super-spike projection from the energy equity analysts," said Linda Rafield, a senior oil analyst at Platts.

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast Friday for the average price of West Texas Intermediate oil in the second half of 2008 to $141 a barrel from $107 a barrel. Long-term oil prices will need to continue to rise to bring trend oil demand growth in line with trend supply growth, which stands at around 1% a year, it said.

And long-dated prices will need to rise on average by 14% above current levels to $148 a barrel, Goldman said.

The report follows Goldman's prediction on May 6 that oil prices were increasingly likely to hit between $150 and $200 a barrel over the next six to 24 months. See full story.

"We believe that the market is not defying fundamentals but rather experiencing a structural repricing much like it did in 2004, searching for a new equilibrium against an uncertain long-term supply environment," the broker said Friday.

Adding support to oil prices Friday were comments from Saudi Arabia, where President Bush was speaking with Saudi King Abdullah. The White House said Saudi Arabia does not see enough demand from customers to increase oil production, the Associated Press reported.

But Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, has topped its Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries output quotas for six straight months, flying in the face of the cartel's official position that it doesn't need to boost production despite record high oil prices. Read full story.

Demand strength

Overall, "there is a good bit of speculative fever currently taking hold of the market, pushing prices past the $127 level, but it's just becoming more apparent that the global demand picture is quickly outstripping the supply realities of the market," said Neal Ryan, manager at Ryan Oil & Gas Partners.
"A 4% global demand growth scenario for energy usage is quickly sending the markets higher because the reality is we're only seeing a 1 percent annual growth in production figures on a global scale," he said in emailed comments.
The oil market hasn't had a lot of time to get used to triple-digit prices, let alone the idea that $100 a barrel just might be the new price floor and the concept that cheap oil is a thing of the past. See Commodities Corner.

Rafield pointed out that underlying fundamentals remain supportive and supply from members outside of OPEC "continues to disappoint."

"Nigeria disruptions appear endless," she said. "Middle distillate balances are tight, supporting heating oil and gas oil prices."

So dips in the oil prices "continued to be viewed as buying opportunities and the path of least resistance is still on the upside," Rafield said.

Price of oil is about to go down. I think we'll see $100 within 2-3 months. Buy below about $105!

Jet

 

[FL510in10min]

A lot of money is flowing OUT of oil right now

 

[jetflyer]

A lot of money is flowing OUT of oil right now

Let's hope it continues so I can get another good buying opportunity

I think we're about to drop to the 200 day moving average which is climbing fast but is at $95 now. I really think we'll just go to $100, and then move sideways till the 200 dma climbs to meet the price at $100 in about 2 months.

Jet

 

[jonjuan]

1 minute Youtube interview of Texas Billionaire T. Boone Pickens. He explains in the simplest terms possible why we're seeing the price of oil rise:
Click Here: "...the price has to go up..."

From the ASPO October 2007 Conference.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/...ees-oil-falling-to-85-in-q2-backs-alternativ/

And yet he still sees it dropping to $85.

 

[jetflyer]

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/...ees-oil-falling-to-85-in-q2-backs-alternativ/

And yet he still sees it dropping to $85.

Your article about Pickens' prediction for a fall from $100 to $85 is from FEBRUARY!??

Boone was on the wrong side of that trade! He says he immediately reversed his position and went long not losing his hedge fund customers too much money.

Boone thinks we're at or very close to peak oil and that up is the direction for the long term future, and I agree.

 

[FL510in10min]

So Jetflyer so u see a drop before another rise?

 

[jetflyer]

Hi FL510,

I think it's almost impossible barring the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz or war with Iran that oil will rise above about $132 without a pretty good drop first. It looks like the topping process is happening now. We're simply too overbought according to the MACD. You have to get new buyers willing to buy.

Look at the chart for WTIC here:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$wtic

1.39 times the 200 day moving average has been serious resistance for some time for gold and oil and I don't see that being broken.

We're pretty much there now.

There is also a long term trend channel that oil is right up against right now. So unless we enter new uncharted territory the trend channel will hold and we'll see a fall in oil for a while.

Where will it fall?

Two most likely possibilities:
Most likely: 200 Day moving average which is at 93.87 and rising quickly. It should be at about $100 in about 2 months, and I think at that same time it will be greeted by the front month price for WTIC

Second most likely: 50 Day moving average which is at 112.48 and rising quickly. It should be about $115 when oil meets it. I think we'll go down to the 50dma, pause here, bounce upwards then fall cutting right through it on the way down to $100 but if we stay around here for a while bouncing up and down we could work off the overbought condition enough to go to new highs......

We'll see but I don't see higher than $132 without atleast hitting about $115 first.....

A good editorial from one of my favorite analysts for you to read is by Clive Maund from a couple days ago talking about how oil is about to fall:
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/maund/maund051408.html

See ya,
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Thinking about this again.

Look here:
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/maund/maund051408.html

I bet that intermediate trend channel holds and we only go down to about $110 and works sideways for months like it did when it dropped from $100 to 85 bounced back up, down, back up, then back to $85 to meet that same trend channel I'm talking about.

I bet it just duplicates what it did then....

Well heck, who really knows!! It could do that or go to $100 to meet the 200 DMA. I just know it has to go down before it goes back up.....

Fundamentals are just too great right now.... Working off that overbought condition is crucial though...

Jet

 

[Razorback Flyer]

You KNOW prices are too high if even the peakniks are predicting a pullback!

The race for alternatives is gaining some speed:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200805151534DOWJONESDJONLINE000967_FORTUNE5.htm


I had another link, but its down right now. I'll try to post when it returns.

 

[deepwater]

Jet i have to agree with you,on this trade, taking my profits off the table in DIG and hope to rebuy it in the
$100 range which looks like the new floor. technicals
show an overbought sector and it looks like a little bit
of churn before the drop. Fundamentally, long term
I dont know if we are at peak oil yet or it is in the near future. What i do see is the easy oil has been recovered. Now it is getting much harder to retreive
it, harder and more expensive to refine it, more expensive to transport it, lack of excess refining capacity, old fields declining as quick as new ones are brought online, and a billion Chinese who want a car, only 1 in 70 have one now, etc. Is it the end of the world? no just a different one where we will adapt with smaller cars, alternate energy etc meaning in the end a lower standard of living.
what does it mean for our industry? More bankruptcy, mergers and possibly less people flying.
I just hope we don't end up in another 70's stagflation economy or worse. I'm going to quit
typing before I depress myself.

 

[jetflyer]

deepwater,

I think you're right about the pullback and how things will turn out. It's not the end of the world. Society will not break down. Life will go on. We're just enterting a new world where people will pay more for energy, food, plastics, and other petroleum products, etc.

I think we'll all be a little poorer because of the inflation but life will go on.

Preparing yourself for hard economic times is about the only thing one can do.

Jet

 

[PCL_128]

deepwater,

I think you're right about the pullback and how things will turn out. It's not the end of the world. Society will not break down. Life will go on. We're just enterting a new world where people will pay more for energy, food, plastics, and other petroleum products, etc.

I think we'll all be a little poorer because of the inflation but life will go on.

Preparing yourself for hard economic times is about the only thing one can do.

Jet

A very reasonable post from you. Good to see.

 

[jetflyer]

Peak Oil was all over CNBC yesterday.

The author of the US Govt DOE funded Study on Peak Oil Robert Hirsch spoke about peak oil on CNBC. He basically said alternatives aren't going to cut it and oil production totals will fall in the future.
Watch here:
Dr. Hirsch Discusses Peak Oil on CNBC

Then legendary Texas oil man T. Boone Pickens spoke about the world having reached peak oil on CNBC.
Watch here:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=747990771

The traders on Wall Street are starting to believe in peak oil. Read below:
Financial Times:

.Shortage fears push oil futures near $140

By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London
Published: May 20 2008 19:06 | Last updated: May 21 2008 10:57

Fears of a shortage within five years propelled long-term oil futures prices to almost $140 a barrel, further stoking inflationary pressures in the global economy.

The spot price of Nymex West Texas Intermediate hit a record $130.30 a barrel on Wednesday. On Tuesday investors had rushed to buy oil futures contracts as far forward as December 2016, pushing their prices as high as $139.50 a barrel, up more than $9.50 on the day.

Veteran traders said they had never seen such a jump and said investors were increasingly betting that oil production would soon peak because of geopolitical and geological constraints.

Neil McMahon, of Sanford Bernstein, said: “Peak oil views – regardless of whether right or wrong – are seeping into the market and supporting high prices.”

Anne-Louise Hittle, of Wood Mackenzie, added that investors were shifting their focus from the short-term to the medium-term, where supply fears played a bigger role. Since January, long-term futures oil contracts, such as those for delivery in 2016, have jumped almost 60 per cent, while near-term prices have gone up 35 per cent.

That trend was exacerbated by T. Boone Pickens, the influential investor who believes world oil production is about to peak as aging fields run dry. He warned that oil prices would hit $150 a barrel by the end of the year.

“Eighty-five million barrels of oil a day is all the world can produce, and the demand is 87m,” Mr Pickens told CNBC. “It’s just that simple.”

Mr Pickens’s view is still in the minority in the oil industry. But concerns over future oil supplies are fast moving into the mainstream and influencing investors.

Politicians have expressed concern that speculators are forcing prices higher and Joseph Lieberman, the influential senator, said he was considering legislation to limit big institutional investors in commodities markets.

Some energy executives have warned that geopolitical supply constraints will mean production will not be able to match demand as early as 2012 to 2015.

This comes as demand, especially from China, is set to continue to grow, while that of the US slows. Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank, said: “The price is going to go up until governments that subsidise oil consumption in Asia and the Middle East can no longer afford it.”

So far China is doing the opposite, having recently retrenched subsidies. Analysts say Chinese demand could surge further as the country faces shortages of coal and hydropower.

Nervousness about Chinese energy demand was exacerbated on Tuesday when officials said 32 power plants had been forced to close because of coal shortages.

PetroChina and Sinopec, the two biggest domestic oil groups, also have diverted fuel supplies to the quake-hit Sichuan region.

Even with all that said the price should come down soon even though we just reached $130/barrel!!

 

[Lear70]

Even with all that said the price should come down soon even though we just reached $130/barrel!!

Wishful thinking.

We're going to be around $150 a brl come 4th of July.

I'm betting the correction comes somewhere between $150 and $200, about the beginning of 2009, and stays around $100-$110 for a long time to come.

The only way we'll adjust is if we negotiate higher wages to compensate for the higher cost of living. Most pilot wages (except SWA) haven't kept up with inflation AT ALL over the last 20 years, and now it's about to get a whole lot worse.

Something is going to have to give,,,