Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[jetflyer]

Squirrel,

It is widely known that OPEC countries are lying and lying hard about their oil reserves. Not a conspiracy just the truth.

Read http://www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426

Why reserve numbers are wrong:

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=231520

.Brent rises $2 after Kuwait reserve report
Fri Jan 20, 2006 20:18 PM ET
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - London Brent crude futures rose $2 on Friday to its highest level since early September after a report that Kuwait's oil reserves are only half those officialy stated.
March Brent <LCOc1> rose $2.01 to $67.24 a barrel after industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) reported it had seen internal Kuwaiti records showing that Kuwait's reserves were about 48 billion barrels, compared to the officially stated 99 billion barrels.
Ahead of the report, Brent had already gained $1.50 on mounting concern about supply from Iran and Nigeria had already fuelled a rally of $1.50.

Kuwait supposedly had 10% of the world's oil. Now they have 5%! Wait till Saudi Arabia's oil reserve totals are questioned. We'll see more than a $2.00 rise in the price of oil.

I highly recommend reading this article below:
From http://www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426 which I consider to be the best description of the PEAK OIL problem:

Refer to the article for the figure they are referencing for this quote:

Before we leave that curve, though, I want to point out that a sudden jump of 300–400 billion barrels of oil in OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) reserves occurs in the late 1980s (see figure 3, left-hand graph, above). But there were no significant discoveries of oil in OPEC countries during that period. What happened instead is that OPEC changed its quota for how much each country could pump on the basis of what it claimed in reserves, and politicians discovered 400 billion barrels of oil without ever drilling a hole in the ground! This helps us to understand how undependable these numbers are for worldwide proven oil reserves.

Like the quote says, the Opec countries changed the method back in the late 1980's for determining how much oil each OPEC country could pump per day and all of the OPEC countries all of a sudden started lying to the world about how much oil they had.

ALL THE OPEC COUNTRIES DON'T HAVE AS MUCH OIL AS THEY CLAIM.

Saudi's Proven Reserves supposedly doubled in the 1980's and they didn't add any new large fields! It was all because of the OPEC quotas. Now 20 years later after pumping close to a 100 Billion barrels they say their proven reserves have not gone down from that doubled figure. They only added ONE significant field to their reserve base: The Hawtah trend which isn't even that large.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Secret Squirrel,

For a more in depth look at what is going on in Saudi and OPEC I recommend reading Bush Family friend and adviser to Cheney, Matthew Simmons book:

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

From his studies of over 200 Society of Petroleum Engineer Papers published by Saudi Arabia, he came to the conclusion Saudi was close to their Peak Oil.

The book was published last year and it turns out now that his warnings WERE TOO LATE about Saudi Peak Oil. They were already past peak before his book came out.

The longer they can keep up the charade, the higher price they'll get for their oil in the future.

Jet

 

[Secret Squirrel]

And by claiming that their reserves are lower they caused oil prices to rise back up towards $70 a barrel which is where they want to keep them. Sounds more like manipulating the market more than proof that they actually have less oil. Nobody knows for sure how much oil there is. You can not stick a dipstick down in the ground and say, yup, there is less oil. It is impossible to tell for sure. You can not use the results of oil production in Texas as a predictor of how oil fields in the middle east or Russia will play out. Follow the money.

 

[jetflyer]

And I would say it is more likely that the world oil market is tighter controlled than most lay people are lead to believe. It takes a lot of money to start oil exploration/development.

I edited the Post above. Please read it.

Also this is what Matthew Simmons pleads for in his book. Greater openness of how much oil is in the Middle East. He wants verification.

We've been taking them for their word on the most important substance to our economy. This is ridiculous. But it is true.

So when they say they will continue to increase production but last year went from 9.5 to 8.7 mbd linearly people need to start worrying. Especially this is when Geologists running Hubbert Linearizations on Saudi predicted the declines would begin.

Also Saudi production is down from that 8.7 to 8.5mbd this year.

So the Saudi declines continue.

We'll have to watch them closely, but it looks like as Matthew Simmons says the "Twilight in the Desert" has begun.

Watch on Yutube, Matthew Simmons talk about the reserve estimates of the OPEC countries being wrong in a 5 minute interview with Bloomberg:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IwtAQzrfiw

Watch in this ABC AUSTRALIA interview the DOE Study Project Leader talk about his concerns that OPEC reserve estimates are wrong:
http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/
(It's the Robert Hirsch interview)

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Secret Squirrel,

OPEC doesn't want the oil price at $70.00. They've said over and over they want to keep the oil price lower. They don't want to encourage alternatives to oil. The problem is that OPEC is pumping full tilt and they can't control the oil price any more. Alternatives are starting to be produced, which OPEC does not want.

They want the oil price high enough for profits but low enough to keep alternatives off the market.

Kuwait is the only one to have been caught lying. They didn't want the truth to be known.

The scary thing is that like you read in this article all the OPEC countries had the same 100% jump in the amount of oil they possessed in that short time period in the 1980's.

Their reserves just stay at that high level too and don't come down even after pumping 100's of billions of barrels.

They continue to lie more and more.

The OPEC countries Reserve Numbers are deeply held internal secrets. None of them have ever allowed independent verification.

There have been whistle blowers out of Saudi Arabia, saying that Saudi can not live up to even close the promises they're making.

Also you don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to believe in Peak Oil, you just have to look at the production numbers coming out of the countries and the World right now.

But, like you say: Follow the Money. Wouldn't they want the world to hit Peak Oil so the price would skyrocket!?

That's OPEC for ya, gaming the world one last time......to make a profit.

Bastards,
Jet

 

[Secret Squirrel]

I don't doubt somebody is screwing us. My but hurts every time I fill up my car.

 

[jetflyer]

For those I know are interested:

The Oildrum Blog and specialist Stuart Staniford have done it again. They've got more amazing analysis and evidence that Saudi Arabia is past their peak oil and declining fast.

This is a must, must read for anyone in the Aviation business because if this is true our jet fuel prices will be going up and our economy very likely will be going down.

MUST, MUST READ:
MORE ANALYSIS ON SAUDI ARABIA BEING PAST THEIR PEAK OIL

Stuart Staniford is offering a $2,000 bet to anyone that thinks Saudi will ever be able to pump over 10.7 MBD. The Saudi's are claiming they will be able to pump 25 MBD in the future!


Jet

 

[jetflyer]

From: REUTERS

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has notified Asian refiners it will cut April crude supplies by about 10 percent below its term contracts, industry sources told Reuters on Monday, after its March supplies to Asia were 7-8 percent below contracted volumes.

Saudi is cutting the amount of oil supplied to Asia once again. So far the evidence says they're declining.

Let's hope not!
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

From Nasdaq: International Energy Agency Warns On Sharp Oil Stocks Falls

The International Energy Agency warned Tuesday that global oil and fuel inventories were being sucked lower at an unusually high pace this year, leading it to fret about demand being met in the coming months and amplifying the need for more crude from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The agency's widely-anticipated monthly assessment of the global oil balance said that stockpiles of crudes and fuels held by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development group of industrialized nations were falling at a pace of 1.26 million barrels a day so far this year and could spell the largest stock draw in a January-to-March period in more than 10 years.

The IEA, which represents the energy security interests of the OECD, also red- flagged an unusual draw down in crude stocks.

The stock draws are what you'd expect if the world is at peak oil and the price is too low.

1.26 mbd is being drawn down from stocks to cover the shortfall in production at this time. Production is going to have to be increased by the producers. What if they can't increase?

We're going to find out if peak oil is here by the summer.

If Saudi can't increase production when needed it will be proven Saudi is past peak, like so many are predicting from their declining production numbers.

It is becoming more clearly evident every day that Saudi Arabia is declining and the world is going down with them.

If the world is past peak oil, alternatives won't have time to make up for the shortfalls and the solution will be WAR for the last remaining major oil reserves on the planet. This will include war for the reserves in the Middle East and Caspian Sea Basin.

Iran is being viewed by our leaders as a future gas station. This is just one of many reasons they will be attacked. Others include their WMD and meddling with Iraq.

My opinion: We won't find out about peak oil because Iran will be attacked before the summer, probably after they attack us first. (We'll fake an attack from Iran on ourselves or the U.S. will bait them into attacking us first, so we can be the good guys retaliating)

The oil price spikes this summer will be blamed on the war with Iran.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

If you think I'm crazy thinking that our leaders are considering Middle Eastern oil for our future energy needs look at this:

Remember the SECRET CHENEY ENERGY MEETINGS 8 Months before 9/11?

The ONLY documents that have been released from the Energy Policy Meetings are shown below. You can make up your own mind why they fought so hard to keep everything secret and what was talked about:

From a website titled:
DOCUMENTS FROM DICK CHENEY'S ENERGY TASK FORCE

Most of the documents related to Dick Cheney's Energy Task Force remain secret, despite Federal Law declaring them to be public records.

Prior to the DC Court of Appeals allowing the records to remain secret because of "National Security", a lawsuit by Judicial Watch forced some of the documents into the public, whereupon it was discovered that most of these documents supposedly dealing with a domestic energy policy turned out to be maps of Middle East oil fields, including Iraq.

DOCUMENTS RELEASED FROM DICK CHENEY'S ENERGY MEETINGS:


Foreign Suitors for Iraq's Oil (PDF)
Iraq Oil and Gas Projects(PDF)
Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Projects(PDF)
United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Projects(PDF)
Map of Iraq's Oil Fields(PDF)
Map of Saudi Arabia's Oil Fields(PDF)
Map of United Arab Emirate Oil Fields(PDF)

This is our present and future, unfortunately,

Jet