Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[jetwash]

I think the prices will rise but gradually like they have the past few years, but never receeding to their previous years lows.




Oil prices fall but hold above US$59 a barrel ahead of U.S. inventory data


The Associated Press
Published: February 22, 2007
LONDON: Oil prices fell but held above US$59 a barrel Thursday ahead of U.S. government inventory data expected to show crude stockpiles rose.
Markets were also watching developments in the Middle East, with the stage being set for a fresh showdown between Iran and Western powers over the nation's nuclear program.
Light, sweet crude for April delivery fell 41 cents to US$59.66 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. Brent crude for April was down 20 cents at US$59.15 a barrel............

Just a news article quote from the first page of this thread a little over a year ago...

$ 59.66 / barrel Feb 22, 2007

$ 130 / barrel May 21, 2008 Today



$ 260 / barrel ?????? May 2009 ?????????

We can't afford not to start conserving oil.


Jetflyer,

Keep on posting, maybe when oil gets to $ 300/ barrel in the next 3 years people will start to realize what you have been trying to say. ( but I somehow doubt it)

 

[vixin]

Wishful thinking.

The only way we'll adjust is if we negotiate higher wages to compensate for the higher cost of living. Most pilot wages (except SWA)While our wages are good they havent kept up with inflation either. We have had a pay freeze for two years now. We are only on top because we havent had to take concessions, as so many point out. haven't kept up with inflation AT ALL over the last 20 years, and now it's about to get a whole lot worse.

Something is going to have to give,,,

..........

 

[jetflyer]

Jetflyer,

Keep on posting, maybe when oil gets to $ 300/ barrel in the next 3 years people will start to realize what you have been trying to say. ( but I somehow doubt it)

I'm just trying to help people. I hope I can help more people before the price gets to $300!

I get attacked a lot but I can only hope some people have listened to me and changed jobs, bought a hybrid, invested in energy and gold, decided to get the smaller home, etc.

Am I a bad guy for telling people about something that I believe is so important to our world?

3 years ago when I started telling people about this I had high hopes of our government changing course and doing things to help avoid hard times. The idiots in Washington have only made things worse in those three years.

I've written my congressmen and shouted this message from the top of hills. I don't think it's made that much of a difference but maybe there's one family out there that will drastically benefit from my advice. I can only hope...

I have to add this. I saw "Evan Almighty" the other day. I kind of feel like Steve Carrells' Noah warning about the great flood he knows is coming...... Everyone laughs at him but he knows he's right. Eventually the flood comes. Be ready for the flood!

Doesn't want to scare people(only help),
Jet

 

[Correcting]

I think it's almost impossible barring the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz or war with Iran that oil will rise above about $132 without a pretty good drop first. It looks like the topping process is happening now. We're simply too overbought according to the MACD. You have to get new buyers willing to buy.

Uh oh Jetflyer, looks like you were on the wrong side of that bet. Oil closed at $133.17 today and is already over $135 in after hours trading.

 

[11thHour]

I get attacked a lot but I can only hope some people have listened to me and changed jobs, bought a hybrid, invested in energy and gold, decided to get the smaller home, etc.

I must admit, I have serious, serious doubts about the long-term outlook of my career as a pilot, due to energy and economic environments, and deep inside I hear a small voice telling me I should get out now. When you say 'changed jobs', did you mean out of the airline pax biz.. or flying all together? I haven't followed your posts, but after reading this entire thread (really!) I like what you have to say and agree with you mostly.

 

[jetflyer]

I went to a fractional 2 1/2 years ago. I don't know what else I'd do without going back to school.

Health care/ Energy will be good fields to be in. There will always be a need for pilots though.

There is a lot of evidence we're close to peak huh? If we're not there now we're within 2-5 years.

I did blow the last call on oil. I think today was the blow off top though. Everyone thinks the price is going to $200 tomorrow. There's just too many people bullish right now and that's why we're about to fall in price.

Oil stocks went down today by about an average 1 percent?! That's one sign the price of oil is at an intermediate top.

 

[crxpilot]

POP...........goes the bubble

its just a matter of time........

Oil Companies Say Prices Should Be $35-$90 a Barrel (Update2)

By Tina Seeley
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. oil company executives told Congress oil prices should be between $35 a barrel and $90 a barrel, as they testified for the second time this year about record energy prices.
The price of oil should be ``somewhere between $35 and $65 a barrel,'' John Hofmeister, president of Shell Oil Co., the Houston-based subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, said at a Senate hearing today. Other executives said prices should be as much as $90 a barrel.
Representatives of the five largest publicly traded oil companies appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee to testify on record energy prices. Appearing today alongside Hofmeister were representatives of BP Plc, ConocoPhillips, Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp.
Crude oil futures contracts touched $133.82 a barrel today on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since trading began in 1983. Average U.S. retail gasoline prices hit a record $3.791 a gallon this week, according to the U.S. Energy Department.
Congress last week approved legislation to halt deliveries to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in an effort to respond to record prices.
Today's committee hearing marks the second time the executives have gathered to testify before Congress this year, after an April 1 hearing of the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.
`No Idea'
John Lowe, executive vice president of ConocoPhillips, said the price should be ``about $90 a barrel in this environment.''
J. Stephen Simon, senior vice president for Exxon Mobil, said he had ``no idea what the price should be today.'' He testified in April that historical market fundamentals pointed to a $50 a barrel to $55 a barrel oil price.
Peter Robertson, vice chairman of Chevron, said he thought the price was higher than the $35 to $65 figure cited by Hofmeister. He declined to give an exact number.
Robert Malone, president of BP America Inc., the U.S. subsidiary of London-based BP, said ``an oil price in the range of $60'' would be profitable for his company.
The House Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing with the same executives tomorrow.

 

[jetflyer]

CRX,
I agree with you. The oil price has to come down for a correction soon. I don't think there's a bubble though. The fundamentals are too strong for there to be a bubble right now.

Am I the only one getting nervous seeing $135 oil!!?? This is just getting insane.

CNBC is talking about "peak oil theory" way too much for my liking!! I guess I should like it cause it will spur alternatives but it's like the awakening I've always wanted to happen is here and now I want everyone to stay stupid!! I didn't think things would develop as quickly as they are.

Has anyone seen the front page of the WSJ today? The IOE is doing a field by field study, like has been done by other groups, and they will release the study in October. Their preliminary findings say supply/demand are in trouble and we're going to feel the pinch.

Resorting to prayer for the oil price to come down soon!,
Jet

 

[PCL_128]

Even if we are at peak oil, that still doesn't justify current prices. There's at least a $30 speculation premium built into the current price. The speculators always need somewhere to go: tech stocks, real estate, oil, etc... The bubble will pop. Only a matter of time. Will it go back down to $35/bbl? Unlikely. Will it go back below $100/bbl? Very likely.

 

[Soverytired]

CRX,
I agree with you. The oil price has to come down for a correction soon. I don't think there's a bubble though. The fundamentals are too strong for there to be a bubble right now.

Am I the only one getting nervous seeing $135 oil!!?? This is just getting insane.

You're not the only one. I got on the "Peak oil" bandwagon a few years ago myself and have been "downsizing" my lifestyle in an attempt to deal with a likely much, much smaller airline world in the very near future.

Wish I would have put my money where my mouth was, investment wise!

Gotta admit, even I didn't think it would go up quite this fast. There are numerous projection models (best case/worst case) scenarios about the effect of peak oil, and I figured the really bad ones were hyperbolic.

Now, I'm not so sure. Kind of scary. I definitely agree that lining up a backup career is an excellent idea.

 

[blzr]

1. There is plenty of oil. Brazil has seveal offshore fields that will come on line in 2010.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2144574420080521

2. North sea discoveries. The higher prices go, the more oil we will find.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/...d=news_view&newsId=20080522005490&newsLang=en

3. As for domestic oil, http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1395678/opening_up_oil_drilling_makes_sense/

I'm not even going to bring up ANWR.

Our government is to blame for our current state of affairs. They pander to the Eco-terrorist, environmental wacko's. In 1996, Bill Clinton veto'd the ANWR drilling proposal claiming that it would take 10 years to get the oil to market. Well, we may not be in this situation had our politicians (on both sides of the isle) used some commons sence.

We have to start somewhere, take that first step. If it is going to take 3 months, 3 years, or even 10 years to get the iol to market, we have to get started now.

 

[jetflyer]

Blzr,
You realize depleting fields mean the world is losing about 3-4Mbd a year right now right?

Just to keep oil production level:
The world has to bring online between 3-4 ANWR's each year(each ANWR is 1Mbd).

To grow by 1mbd:
4-5 ANWR's have to be brought online each year.

The last couple years we've only been staying close to level which alone means a LOT of oil has been coming to market.

2008 and 2009 are supposed to have a LOT of new oil projects come online but they're only supposed to barely increase global production or keep it level.

Really the world is depending on Russia and Saudi continuing to grow but both have declining production which will mean more ANWR's will be needed to stay LEVEL!

Supply is going to have a hard time increasing in the years to come.

 

[PCL_128]

Oil prices are down about $5/bbl today. The analysts are taking it as a sign of profit-taking. Hitting $135/bbl might be a tipping point for some institutional investors to realize that things have had too big of a run. I think jetflyer's prediction of $100/bbl within the next few months is probably accurate. People will take profits and drive the cost down. There simply isn't any new money out there to dump into oil and other commodities.

 

[blzr]

Blzr,
You realize depleting fields mean the world is losing about 3-4Mbd a year right now right?

Just to keep oil production level:
The world has to bring online between 3-4 ANWR's each year(each ANWR is 1Mbd).

To grow by 1mbd:
4-5 ANWR's have to be brought online each year.

The last couple years we've only been staying close to level which alone means a LOT of oil has been coming to market.

2008 and 2009 are supposed to have a LOT of new oil projects come online but they're only supposed to barely increase global production or keep it level.

Really the world is depending on Russia and Saudi continuing to grow but both have declining production which will mean more ANWR's will be needed to stay LEVEL!

Supply is going to have a hard time increasing in the years to come.

Jet, you are absolutely right. Now, specifically, WHO (which political f.cked up party) WILL NOT LET US EXPLORE AND DRILL FOR OUR OWN OIL???

It is there...Lots of it. Not enough for FOREVER, but enough to ease the tranition to another fuel source somewhere in the future.

 

[PCL_128]

The problem is that it wouldn't ease the transition, it would delay it once again. As soon as we start drilling in more places for oil, the speculators will pull their money out of oil, gas prices will drop, and people will go right back to their old ways until we run out of domestic oil. Then everyone will panic again and we'll be no further along in developing alternatives. The Administration needs to show some leadership and put tons of federal money towards developing alternative energy. Waiting for the "free market" to take care of it isn't going to work.

 

[blzr]

The problem is that it wouldn't ease the transition, it would delay it once again. As soon as we start drilling in more places for oil, the speculators will pull their money out of oil, gas prices will drop, and people will go right back to their old ways until we run out of domestic oil. Then everyone will panic again and we'll be no further along in developing alternatives. The Administration needs to show some leadership and put tons of federal money towards developing alternative energy. Waiting for the "free market" to take care of it isn't going to work.

Ok. I'll take your word for it. But.....instead of begging Saudi Arabia and the other middle eastass countries to give us more, why don't we just get our own oil, try as best we can to conserve and transition to alternative recources, and let the RAGHEADS eat scorpions. I'm sick of our P ssy ass government acting like a bunch of dumbass hippies.

Lets just TRY the "drill you own" Oil thing and see what happens.

 

[jetflyer]

I want to start out by saying I really appreciate you blzr and PCL.

I can't even stand to read some of the other threads on oil on these boards. I want to puke seeing the lack of knowledge on this topic being spewed out of their mouths.

Blzr,
The back and forth bickering between the Dems and Repubs is why nothing gets done to make us more energy independent. They're both to blame.

Divided, we all fail.

In the 3 years I've been researching peak oil NOTHING has gotten done because of these idiots.

Let's hope they can pull their heads out of their asses and help us ease the pain that's here....I doubt it though..

Jet

 

[Negative Prist]

jetflyer,

Last week I happened to fly one of the authors you mentioned in your very first post on this thread. During another conversation with him a few years ago, he predicted $4 a gallon gas in two years.

I asked him again last week what he saw for the next two years. His answer was somewhat surprising. He said, "Ten to twelve dollars a gallon in two years. But that's hard to predict. It could happen in four months."

He also confirmed your comment in your previous post about ANWR. I asked him his opinion on drilling there, and he said that it is too late for ANWR to help us.

He also said that he doesn't see many airlines surviving the oil price increases in the next few years. If you currently fly for an airline, I suspect his advice to you would very likely be to find a fractional job now. He predicted fractionals would fare much better.

 

[Soverytired]

Lovely. I agree with all of it.

ANWR and off shore drilling will happen, and are necessary. But they'll take at least a decade to develop, and won't save us from high gas prices. Too late for that.

What's even worse is meaningful switches to alternative fuels will take a GENERATION. Kinda sobering. If true.

Course, there's been gloom and doom talk about things like this before. So, think happy thoughts, I guess.

 

[PCL_128]

Ridiculous. I've been saying it for a long time: $5/gallon gas is a breaking point. When we get there, people will change their habits. Demand will drop like a brick and oil prices will fall. The chances of seeing $10/gallon gas are just about non-existent, IMO.