Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[jetflyer]

From:
Dow Jones Newswires

Dubai Crude Output Down Rapidly As Govt Moves To Crimp Decline

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Production of Dubai's crude oil has fallen as much as a third in the past two years and is a fraction of that recorded in some government statements, company documents show, undermining the already fragile position of one of the world's top three oil price reference points.
Current output in the booming Persian Gulf sheikdom, one of seven semi-autonomous enclaves in the United Arab Emirates, is some two-thirds below the figure released by the national government, according to calculations by Dow Jones Newswires using data from the previous operators of the fields. It has fallen as much as a third in the past two years....

Daily output in the first three months of this year fell to between 65,000 barrels and 80,000 barrels against the 240,000 barrels stated on the U.A.E. government's Web site......

Well that makes another one past peak oil.......

They're trying their hardest to stop the declines and just can't.

Bad news for humans,
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

A Must, Must Read for anyone interested in their Aviation career:
From: OilDrum blog

This is a thorough analysis of all projected oil projects country by country that shows oil production is in SERIOUS trouble.

The Oil Drum: Updated World Oil Forecast, Including Saudi Arabia

The title says it all. This is quite possibly the scariest analysis post we have done in a long time, folks. Read it, bring popcorn. Amazing analysis, in my opinion.

The supply crunch is imminent. This is a must read for anyone concerned about the future.

(CLICK ON THE GRAPHS to make them larger and easier to read. They're kinda small)

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

As supply continues to be less than demand in the 4th quarter (EIA says supply 85mbd and Demand 88mbd) here are two quick peak oil updates:

This first one is an update on world oil production.
The peak for crude oil is still May 2005 and we are 1 million barrels per day below the peak.
Peak oil for TOTAL LIQUIDS which counts ethanol, natural gas liquids, etc is still July 2006 and we're currently 1 million barrels per day below the peak:
Click here for an UPDATE ON PEAK OIL- You MUST look at the current oil production charts

Here is one of the best bottom-up studies I've seen on the future of oil production. They analyze the projected oil projects which take 5-10 years to bring to market and the declines in current fields and countries. They show that the peak was most likely for Crude oil(not total liquids) in 2005 and that the plateau for oil production should continue till 2009 with declines of only 1% per year and then after 2009 should decline at 4% per year.
Click here for the newest PEAK OIL STUDY on the future of oil production including price predictions for the future- You MUST look at the future oil production prediction charts

(click on the main chart to make it larger to see)

The above study also continues on the problems with oil production in Saudi Arabia with their massive ancient field Ghawar that provided over half their oil declining quickly like all other similar fields in history have done including Mexico's collosal declines that are happening in Cantarell.

Both are must reads!

The study shows the situation we face from now till May of next year with supply being less than demand. The Energy Information Agency says supply should stay at 85 million barrels a day and demand at 88 mbd in the 4th quarter. They say this will draw down global inventories (which don't count the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) by 5% in the 4th quarter. So there won't be shortages for a long time since the world has so much in storage but these being drawn down is not good.

Is the current $87/barrel high enough to bring demand down from 88mbd to the supply of 85mbd? Most definitely not. So inventories will continue to be drained until the price is high enough.

Each year in to the future supply is forecast to be farther below needed demand. Their charts are as good as a million words.

Isn't it amazing how besides a few Congressmen that have created the Peak Oil Caucus this is continually ignored by the government!?

The good thing is that even with record oil prices gasoline prices are staying relatively low (for now).

Jet

 

[crxpilot]

Please, nobody really cares about your doom and gloom. Do you have anything else to post about?

 

[Rick James]

Please, nobody really cares about your doom and gloom. Do you have anything else to post about?

I do, reality is a b!tch. I think some people are more concerned about a price hike at Starbucks than at the gas pumps.

 

[crxpilot]

I do, reality is a b!tch. I think some people are more concerned about a price hike at Starbucks than at the gas pumps.

So what do you propose Rick? Dig your own oil well? Put a huge underground tank on your farm full of fuel that will last you till your dead? C'mon, its out of our control and it will all work out in the end. Besides, whats the worse can happen, die? {hint: you're gonna die at some point anyways..} Enjoy life and let the cards fall where they may!

 

[crxpilot]

posted March 2007

Skifishfly,

2 billion barrels. That will last the world 23 days....

Plus it won't be on the market for 5-10 years.

Not fast enough to save us this summer if Saudi is past their peak oil like everyone is coming to believe and that they won't be able to increase their oil production this summer.

Global inventories are dropping at record rates right now because oil production is too low for even this slow demand season. Wait till the summer, or like I think when Iran gets hit in the next month or two.

Jet

So nutball...........we still have oil, and we havent "hit" Iran...........what else ya got?

 

[jetflyer]

Global inventories are supposed to be drawn down 6.5% this 4th quarter according to the EIA because demand is going to be 85mbd and supply 88mbd.

The inventories can't continue to be drawn down this long forever can they? The supply/demand situation is only supposed to worsen.

Jet

 

[Max Powers]

REMEMBER VOTE FOR GREEN CANDIDATES THEY ARE OUR ONLY SALVATION........WE NEED TO STOP USING SO MUCH OIL FOR ALL THINGS OUTSIDE OF AVIATION. Aviation will always need gas but our other industries and transportation services don't necessarily need it. If they use alternative forms of energy gas prices will stabilize or perhaps decline and we can then get our needed raises!!!

So remember all you knuckle headed republican conservative pilots that the global warming scare is good for us in aviation. No one will want to cut there dependence on flying but they will want to cut their dependence on useless SUV.

So vote DEMOCRAT!!!!

 

[Rick James]

So what do you propose Rick? Dig your own oil well? Put a huge underground tank on your farm full of fuel that will last you till your dead? C'mon, its out of our control and it will all work out in the end. Besides, whats the worse can happen, die? {hint: you're gonna die at some point anyways..} Enjoy life and let the cards fall where they may!

Funny thing is I agree with you. I don't sit up at night worrying about this, after all it's out of my control. Peak oil is a reality that will have to be dealt with. The question is how? As far as digging my own oil well it would be a waste of time as I would be out of a job to drive to anyway.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Global inventories are supposed to be drawn down 6.5% this 4th quarter according to the EIA because demand is going to be 85mbd and supply 88mbd.

The inventories can't continue to be drawn down this long forever can they? The supply/demand situation is only supposed to worsen.

Jet

It is funny you quote the EIA when they do not predict peak oil until the end of the 21st century.

You are doing exactly what all those crazy fear mongering links you post. You cherry pick stats from legitimate research to support lunatic articles.

 

[jetflyer]

Secret Squirrel,

Do you mean like this?

The U.S. Army came out with this study in 2006.

Are they some crazy fear mongering organization ?

It's amazing how right they've been so far.

Here is the U.S. Army PEAK OIL study:
http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf
Quotes from the study:

.The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years. As worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will cause even more significant price increases and security risks. One can only speculate at the outcome from this scenario as world petroleum production declines.

Currently, non-OPEC nations have been at maximum production and will most likely peak as predicted.

Oil Wars?

.Demand now exceeds production and we are seeing that effect on prices. After the peak is reached, geopolitics and market economics will result in significant price increases above what we have seen to date. Security risks will also rise. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.

Reduced demands caused by high prices may delay the peak slightly, but the peak is certainly within sight.

The rapid and expansive growth of the economy was based on cheap and abundant energy. Little thought and planning have been given to how to transition to the realities of the 21st Century when petroleum and natural gas resources will become depleted.

Quote:

One thing is certain: it is going to be challenging and comprehensive approaches to energy issues are required. Uncertainty cannot be an excuse for inaction. Integrated resource planning is required and issues must be addressed from both the supply and demand viewpoint. The U.S. cannot drill its way to energy independence nor can we do it all with renewables and efficiency. A secure, reliable, and cost effective energy system must be robust, diverse, and aggressively incorporate renewables, energy efficiency, and intelligent use of fossil fuels.

 

[jetflyer]

Secret Squirrel,

Here is another crazy fear monger talking about peak oil:

Here is an article by Lt. Colonel John M. Amadon:
"America’s strategic imperative: a “Manhattan Project” for energy"

He calls for a Manhattan Project on energy so we can avoid oil wars from PEAK OIL and really emphasizes COAL to OIL.

Coal to oil is one of the best solutions for America but not enough is being done on this front.

From the Lt. Col. in the article:

.Military and economic efforts to expand oil access in the Caspian Basin, like our actions over the past 60 years in the Persian Gulf, could bring the United States into conflict with energy-hungry regional powers such as China and India. Played out far from traditional U.S. supply lines, clashes would minimize our advantages in naval and air power and depend largely on ground forces and asymmetric warfare.

The current world energy situation poses a national threat unparalleled in 225 years. The economy, particularly the transportation component, has become heavily dependent on foreign oil. Concurrent with rising demand are indications that world production may soon peak, followed by permanent decline and shortage. Moreover, most of the remaining oil is concentrated in distant, politically hostile locations, inviting interdiction by enemies.

Lt. Col. Amadon in the article, gives good descriptions of the problems of peak oil, and why it is critical for the security of America to move away from oil. He also talks about how it is too difficult for the U.S. to successfully secure the oil of the world militarily for our use.


I hate these fear mongers.....
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

From the Fear Mongering Department of Energy Report on Peak Oil:

"PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT"
Click here for the report: http://www.bartlett.house.gov/upload...sch_report.pdf
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader Roger Bezdek, MISI Robert Wendling, MISI

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

.The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past energy crisis experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis.

.Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action would leave the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.

.Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.

Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.

The obvious conclusion from this analysis is that with adequate, timely mitigation, the economic costs to the world can be minimized. If mitigation were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), which would translate to significant economic hardship.

There will be no quick fixes. Even crash programs will require more than a decade to yield substantial relief.

.The development of the US economy and lifestyle has been fundamentally shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Oil scarcity and several-fold oil price increases due to world oil production peaking could have dramatic impacts ... the economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale.

MARKET FORCES WON'T FIX THIS PROBLEM ALONE:

.Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. But the process will not be easy. Expediency may require major changes to ... lengthy environmental reviews and lengthy public involvement.

Despite arguments from the major oil companies and producer nations new finds of oil are not replacing oil consumed each year. Despite the advances in technology reserves are becoming increasingly difficult to replace.

....world moving from a long period in which reserves additions were much greater than consumption, to an era in which annual additions are falling increasingly short of annual consumption. This is but one of a number of trends that suggest the world is fast approaching the inevitable peaking of conventional world oil production.

He's talking about recessions, depressions and shortages:

.If mitigation were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction.

Sound like today's events?:

.As world oil peaking is approached, excess production capacity ... will disappear, so that even minor supply disruptions will cause increased price volatility as traders, speculators, and other market participants react to supply/demand events

Oil could become the price setter in the broader energy market, in which case other energy prices could well become increasingly volatile and unpredictable.

.The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.

Now do you understand why after the Project Manager Robert Hirsh spoke to Congress about his findings, this study was swept under the rug?

It has never received any mention in the mainstream media, because the conclusions are so startling and because of what we're doing in the Middle East.

Squirrel,
The EIA, which is part of the DOE doesn't want to make the world think the U.S. is getting involved in the Middle East for oil. If they came out and said "We're at Peak Oil" well the whole world would hate us more than they do now and know we're in the middle east for the Black Gold....

Jet

 

[crxpilot]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling...........{yawn}

 

[jetflyer]

Crx,
Please grow up. This is a serious issue. Don't visit this thread if you don't want to read anything about peak oil, supply/demand issues, or increasing fuel costs.

Thank you,
Jet

 

[crxpilot]

Crx,
Please grow up. This is a serious issue. Don't visit this thread if you don't want to read anything about peak oil, supply/demand issues, or increasing fuel costs.

Thank you,
Jet

Grow up? Do you listen to yourself, NUTBALL? Oil is a finite resource, we get it. And guess what? I enjoy flying my gas guzzling jet airplane around blowing out carbons out the wazoo. Does that make you cringe? I bet when you walk into a room, people groan.....am I right?

 

[jetflyer]

I enjoy flying my gas guzzling jet airplane around blowing out carbons out the wazoo. Does that make you cringe? I bet when you walk into a room, people groan.....am I right?

Crx,
I too enjoy flying my gas guzzler and also enjoy driving my 8 cylinder gas guzzler, even though I am getting a hybrid soon. I say gun it hard while oil is cheap! Take those long drives across the country while gasoline is still relatively cheap! You'll regret it if you don't....

I hardly ever talk about peak oil in my personal life. My friends and family believe peak oil is a serious issue and have adjusted their investments accordingly. We have much better things to talk about. I do have a life!

Flightinfo.com is simply a major outlet for my fears and a way that I feel like I may be helping others.

Thank you for your concerns. You're such a nice and thoughtful gentleman,
Jet

 

[UALjan15]

CRX--

I've looked at at a few times, tried both eyes open, one eye closed, upside down, etc. Still, I can't figure out what the heck that avatar is all about. It looks like the remnants of a "cowstrike."

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

These nutbags remind me of the people on those chemtrail and UFO sites.