Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[blzr]

When (I think we will pay for carbon soon), they start taxing carbon (CO2) it will damage commercial aviation. For every pound of jet fuel you burn, you create 3.15 pounds of carbon dioxide. You produce tons of carbon dioxide on every flight.

CO2 and Methane are now classified as greenhouse gasses. If thetax them, we are all going to be in trouble. We all exhale, out of both ends....

 

[jetflyer]

Excellent High-Budget NEW Peak Oil Documentary just put on Google Video:

A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash

It has Matthew Simmons, who is an adivsor to Cheney, and other excellent peak oil experts.

WATCH QUICK! I don't think it's supposed to be on GOOGLE VIDEO!

See ya,
Jet

 

[UALjan15]

I guess I wasn't quick enough....it's gone, and when I search on the title, all I can find is the 2 min. trailer.

 

[jetflyer]

Arghhh, yea I'm pissed. I only got to watch the first half before my flight home. I just tried to watch the second half and it was gone

I did just find another peak oil documentary "Crude Impact". It's in pieces though but looks great.
Here are the links:
CRUDE IMPACT PART 1/9
CRUDE IMPACT PART 2/9
CRUDE IMPACT PART 3/9
CRUDE IMPACT PART 4/9
CRUDE IMPACT PART 5/9
CRUDE IMPACT PART 6/9
CRUDE IMPACT PART 7/9
CRUDE IMPACT PART 8/9
CRUDE IMPACT PART 9/9

Here is a description. Look at all the awards:

Crude Impact is an award-winning documentary film which Chris Vernon of TheOilDrum.com called " a terrific film... the best documentary I have seen on the subject." This feature film explores the interconnection between human domination of the planet, and the discovery and use of oil.

Crude Impact was awarded the Best Environmental Feature Film at the 3rd Annual Artivist Film Festival in Los Angeles.

Crude Impact was also awarded the Social Justice Award at the 22nd Annual Santa Barbara International Film Festival.

Crude Impact was nominated for three awards at the Sacramento International Film Festival - Best Documentary, Best Editing, and Best Environmental Film.
The film has also been nominated for Best World Popular Scientific Film at the 42nd International Popular Scientific and Documentary Film Festival in Olomouc.

The film was an official selection of the prestigious International Documentary Film Festival in Amsterdam.

The objective of the film is to promote positive, hopeful change in the way we source and use energy. Changes that will create a more just and sustainable world.

Featured Speaker: Tundi Agardy, Guy Caruso, Cindy Cohn, Julian Darley, Ken Deffeyes, Steve Donziger,Emeka Duruigbo, Michael Economides, Christopher Flavin, Amy Goodman, Thom Hartmann, Richard Heinberg, Terry Lynn Karl, Santiago Kawarim, Michael Klare, Evon Peter, Kavita Ramdas, William Rees, Matthew Simmons, Bill Twist, Lynne Twist.

Looks good. Too bad I'm going to play golf now. It will probably be gone by the time I get back!

WATCH QUICK!

Jet

 

[Rick James]

I watched the first video, the last minute is amazing. It wont be too much longer when we look back at the trendy, politically correct, struggles of impoverished nations like Darfur as the "good old days". This planet cannot support the exponetial population growth we've seen in the last 100 years. I could care less what we have in the "strategic petroleum reserve", or what gas prices are today, we are consuming a finite resource.

 

[jetflyer]

From: Whiskey and Gunpowder

The entire article is a must read if you want to have an idea what the future will most likely look like.

Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a retired director of the National IRANIAN Oil Co. says 2006 was the year of "Peak Oil" and classifies the hard times into 4 different transition periods.

Transition period 1 (T1) will last until 2010 and will be in Bakhtiari's view
where worldwide oil supplies will remain almost constant during this initial phase. New discoveries and production that is now coming on line will just about compensate for the production that is lost due to depletion.

But T2, T3, and T4 will be, as Bakhtiari puts it, "more turbulent phases."

After some 147 years of almost uninterrupted supply growth to a record output of some 81-82 million barrels/day [mb/d] in the summer of 2006, crude oil production has since entered its irreversible decline. This exceptional reversal alters the energy supply equation upon which life on our planet is based. It will come to place pressure upon the use of all other sources of energy -- be it natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and all types of sundry renewables, especially biofuels. It will eventually come to affect everything else under the sun."

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"T1 has a very benign gradient of decline, and it will take months before one notices it at all. But T2 will be far steeper...My World Oil Production Capacity model has predicted that over the next 14 years, present global production of 82 million barrels per day will decrease by roughly 32%, down to around 55 million barrels per day by the year 2020."[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]

...I seriously believe that the peaking of the global production of crude oil -- commonly know as 'Peak Oil' -- has occurred in 2006 and will be 'The Event' bound to dominate the history of the 21st century: one of those 'historical inflection points,' which abruptly change fundamentals in the course of world history. I cannot foresee any other event coming to eclipse Peak Oil, not even the world wars which might be unleashed in the Peak's aftermath and further fueled by widespread resource scarcity....

"In 'Post Peak,' all of our systems of habits are in mortal danger. Due to the relative cheapness of crude oil (in relation to other, more expensive daily needs), people don't exactly realize the pivotal role played by its products in their daily routines -- as these products have invaded every nook and cranny of our modern life. It is only when the brakes will be pulled (as they inevitably will have to be) that the general public will come to gradually realize the critical importance of 'black gold'

Thus, at present, the global masses seem totally unprepared for the two shocks which will inevitably occur in 'Post Peak.

Dr. Bakhtiari believes that almost all of what are considered to be major current trends of humanity will be altered by Peak Oil.

We're still in T1 where oil production is declining VERY slowly. The declines will accelerate in the next few years and this is when things will have to change more quickly.

Knowing this, I'm shocked the Bush administration hasn't invaded Iran yet......

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Export Land Model in action:

Mexico’s oil exports dropped at an annual rate of about 16%
http://www.reuters.com/article/econo...39326520070503
Mexico's Pemex posts 1st-qtr net loss

Pemex's (first quarter) oil exports also dipped to an average of 1.711 million barrels per day from 2.003 million bpd in the year-ago period as declining yields at Mexico's Cantarell field pulled oil output down to 3.158 million bpd from 3.345 million.

So Mexico's oil production, now that Mexico has just recently passed its peak oil, went down only 6% year over year but their oil exports went down by 16%.

Mexico has always been one of the USA's largest suppliers. This is changing.

Mexico like many other exporting nations will not be an exporter any longer in the not too distant future.

I hope some of you can understand the significance of this on a global scale.

The U.S. is the world's largest oil importer and these oil imports are our economies achilles heel.

As the exporting nations grow richer from their exports their internal consumption of oil products goes up as their oil production continues to decline.

Therefore oil available for export goes down at a much higher rate which is very dangerous for the U.S. and other importing nations.

The U.S. is going to have to deal with declines in available exports that are much higher than the global decline rate after peak!

Price competition for these available exports is going to be fierce among importers like the U.S. and China.

Result?

Price spikes, war for this oil, or both.

This is gonna suck for importers.......
Good thing we ONLY import 2/3 of our oil
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Did you know:

--One BARREL of oil provides the energy equivalent of 2 1/2 years of human labor at 40 hours/week.

--The world has had flat oil production for almost 3 years now at about 84 million barrels a day, which is never discussed. Only demand is. In the past oil production has always risen when needed. Many are saying August 2006 was peak oil for Planet Earth.

--For every 3 barrels of oil the world uses, less than 1 is being found.

--We have not found the amount of oil we use since 1985.

--Saudi Arabia has had declining oil production since December 2005.

--OPEC has had declining oil production for 3 years in a row.

--Refiineries are producing more gasoline this year than they did last year.

--Refineries are refining more oil than this time last year.

--Gasoline imports are down signifcantly from last year.

To see the charts of gasoline stocks, crude stocks, refinery outputs, imports etc. see: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2517

--Light sweet crude oil peaked in 2004 and heavy sour oil is being used more which U.S. refineries aren't easily able to use. It is dangerous to refine when the refineries aren't made to use it and fires and explosions are the result.

--Mexico's Cantarell field declined from 2.0 to 1.5 mbd in a little over a year.

--Yes we need to drill in Alaska, but it will only produce 5% of the U.S.'s oil for 20 years.

--It has been proven that Kuwait lied about their oil reserves and only has 48 billion barrels and not 99 billion barrels of oil.

--Canadian oil sands produced at a crash program rate will only increase 2.5 million barrels by 2016.

--11 out of 20 experts consulted for the recent U.S. Government Accountability Office Study said Peak Oil is NOW.

--T. Boone Pickes who runs the best performing Hedge fund in 2005 BPCapital which invests in energy says Peak Oil is now.

--George Soros, billionaire, says peak oil is now.

--Al Gore thinks we're at peak oil now. Is he really worried about Global Warming or peak oil?

--Texas Billionaire, Rainwater says peak oil is now and that it will be the investment opportunity of our lifetime.

To hear Economist and investor Jim Puplava on his radio show "Financial Sense News Hour" talk about the lastest on the peak oil front while you surf the web in a show called:
"Crude Realities Part 1" pick an audio format:
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]RealPlayer | WinAmp | Windows Media l mp3

"Crude Realities Part 2" pick an audio format:
[/FONT][FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]RealPlayer | WinAmp | Windows Media l mp3

To protect your investments and to make me feel like I can make a difference in this world become informed.

Thank you,
Jet
[/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]
[/FONT]

 

[jetflyer]

Did you know Al Gore thinks we're at Peak Oil NOW and that oil prices are going to continue to rise.

He said so on the "Larry King Live" show.

Here is a link to the discussion:
http://www.energybulletin.net/17142.html

Also you must LISTEN to Al Gore talk about how we're at peak oil in 2005 in a Q&A townhall meeting. It's only 3 1/2 minutes long:

Here is the link to the audio of Al Gore talking about peak oil: http://globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/747

He says in the interview above the oil price rises in 2005 to $54/barrel are just the beginning.

He says we've gone to war in the middle east for oil.

He says Global Warming and Peak Oil are very connected.

Is Al Gore worried about GW or really the coming energy crisis from Peak Oil?

The solution is the same for both........

Makes you wonder doesn't it!?

I think you GW worriers are worried about the wrong thing! Your job is OK if the Earth heats up. If peak oil is now, your job is in jeopardy NOW.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Saudi Arabia continues to cut their oil production month by month.

They say it is voluntary, but they've been cutting month by month since 2005 and only flattening when new gigantic oil projects were brought online!

Saudi Arabia is past its peak oil!
Saudi Aramco to Reduce Arab Light Oil Exports to Asia in June

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state oil company, will cut Arab Light crude oil exports to Asia for the first time in at least three months as part of an overall supply reduction to the region. The Dhahran, Saudi Arabia-based oil producer will lower shipments starting in June, said three refinery officials who received notices and asked not to be identified because of confidentiality agreements. The producer has been reducing Arab Medium and Arab Heavy sales by between 9 percent and 10 percent of total contracted volumes.

Saudi Arabia is lowering exports to comply with 1.7 million-barrel-a-day production cuts agreed last year by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries....
It's the eighth month that Saudi Aramco has reduced exports to Asia.

Analysis by a gentleman at the oildrum blog:

The world is calling on OPEC to increase production because of the expected summer crunch. But OPEC says they will do nothing until they meet in September, then decide.
Yet in the meantime Saudi continues to cut, piecemeal style, a little bit almost every month since their peak in the summer of 2005.
February production of the original OPEC-11, was down 1.950 million barrels per day since their peak in September of 2005. Yet Saudi continues to cut...and cut....and cut. But of course all these continued tiny cuts are all voluntary! Right Robert?

Will they be able to increase in the future? Let's freekin' hope so!!!!!

If you haven't read the studies by the oildrum blog that Saudi is past peak here they are:
Saudi is past their peak part 1
Saudi is past their peak Part 2
Jet

 

[Phaedrus]

touched

 

[jetflyer]

International Energy Agency Expects OIL PRICES TO SOAR
Some Analysts feel oil prices could top $80/barrel later this year

World oil prices will rise sharply in the second half of 2007 unless OPEC increases production, the International Energy Agency said yesterday....

"We would very much hope that OPEC production is at its seasonal low at the moment," David Fyfe, analyst at the IEA, told Reuters news service. "We definitely do need more crude oil."......

Analysts said both crude oil and product markets remain tight, with inventories abnormally low for this time of year......

But he added that, unless OPEC increases production, the market will be undersupplied in the second half of the year.....

"OPEC needs to ramp up production to meet the shortfall, and fast!," the analyst wrote in a report yesterday.

I've been saying this since January. Saudi Arabia is past peak. Their oil production has been declining since late 2004.

OPEC is pumping lower now than 3 years ago. It is NOT VOLUNTARY.

The world is past peak oil.

If OPEC can not increase oil production this summer global inventories are going to be drained significantly spiking the price.

Eventually the price has to go higher and higher to slow consumption because inventories can't save us forever. Eventually we'll start having shortages!

Iran will also happen very soon because of peak oil. Our fearless leaders are executing their "ENERGY POLICY".

'Military plan against Iran is ready'

Iran Adding Attack Boats in Persian Gulf, U.S. Says

The attack will probably happen after we're "ATTACKED" or a terrorist attack that we very well may do on ourselves like we did to start Vietnam with the Gulf of Tonkin incident which is now known to have been fabricated.

Let the good times roll................

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Must read article for the charts:

From Yahoo News:
Is Oil's Next Stop $85?

You have to look at this one for one reason. They show two important charts of projected supply and demand for the rest of the year. This will show you why oil prices are high especially because OPEC is refusing to increase supply (because they can't give much if any).

It's as simple as this:
These two pictures tell why crude oil will soon take out the all time high in the $78 range and move higher from there over the next several months:

Click link to see the charts they talk about.

We are going to have a serious problem not having enough oil supplied in the second half of this year.

Note how supply has been virtually the same since the end of 2004. Some experts have been saying we've been on an oil production plateau/peak and the declines are imminent.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

IEA Admits Peak Oil is here NOW!!

This is very significant. The International Energy Agency has caused a lot of discussion in the oil pits with their recent analysis of future mid-term oil production.

The IEA says DEMAND is going to go up and SUPPLY is going to go down! Isn't that peak oil??!

From BBC News: Oil Supplies Face More Pressure

World oil demand will rise faster than expected, while supplies will remain tight, the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report has warned.

The IEA predicted demand would rise by an average 2.2% a year between 2007 and 2012, up from previous estimates of 2%.

It added that geo-political tensions and a lack of spare capacity in Opec production would also limit supplies.

By 2012, biofuel production would hit 1.8 million barrels, more than double 2006 levels it said.

However, while supplies of the green fuel are set to surge, it is likely to remain marginal with just a 2% slice of the energy market, the IEA said.

It also echoed warnings issued in an Organisation for Economic Development report that rapidly growing biofuel market will increase the price of certain feedstocks - such as sugar and corn - over the coming year.

Demand pressure

But with forecasts predicting world economic growth to increase by 4.5% a year, the report argued that oil demand was likely to soar to 95.8m barrels a day in 2012 from 81.6m bpd this year.

At the same time it predicted production from oil cartel Opec would fall, slipping by 2m bpd in 2009,(My note: NEWS FROM SAUDI!????) while it also cut supply forecasts for non-Opec countries by 800,000 bpd.

It added that other factors including rising refinery costs, engineer shortages and strong demand in other energy markets would also put pressure on oil supplies.

From: Salon: If It Smells Like Peak Oil, it Probably is:

Demand for oil products -- primarily transportation fuels -- is growing fast. You can blame all those developing countries whose populations are approaching the critical $3,000 per capita GDP level -- that magic moment when, according to the IEA, "a middle class usually emerges, eager to purchase cars, fly in aeroplanes, install air-conditioners and, more generally, use energy-consuming appliances."

Don't blame a lack of refinery capacity -- the IEA says investment in refinery upgrades is proceeding apace, and is not likely to be a problem in the near future. But overall, supply of the raw product -- oil and gas -- is having a harder and harder time keeping up with demand.

They say the Refinery Problem will be fixed shortly and that the real problem is Oil SUPPLY.

So OPEC is supposed to be producing 2 mbd less than today in 2009. Hmmm, so they are admitting peak oil for OPEC. Not good.........

The IEA says demand will be 95.8 mbd in 2012 but global supply will be less than the 81.2 it is at today. That looks like a problem to me...............

Jet

 

[Phaedrus]

I enjoy talking to myself....

 

[STL717]

The Energy Challenge

Maybe the sky isn't falling.​

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=28907​

The Energy Challenge
By Alan W. Dowd
FrontPageMagazine.com | June 27, 2007​

Late last week (to be precise, late Thursday night), the Senate passed what the Washington Post hailed as “a sweeping energy legislation package.” (In truth, with its commitment to bio-fuels and higher fuel-economy standards, the bill is heavily focused on the demand side of America’s energy challenges.) Earlier that same day, President George W. Bush devoted some time to speaking about energy issues. The venue for Bush’s speech—a nuclear power plant in Alabama, where the TVA is revving up the first new reactor to come online in more than a decade—was a not-so-subtle reminder that if Americans want to make real strides toward energy independence, it’s time to exploit the nation’s vast energy assets. And nuclear energy is just one of many such assets.
As the Senate quibbled over new MPG standards for SUVs, Bush laid out the good news and bad news about America’s nuclear energy industry: It already provides 20 percent of the nation’s electrical power; it’s clean, preventing the release of 700 million additional tons of carbon dioxide into the air every year; and it can help break America’s unnecessary addiction to foreign oil.

“In 1985, about 27 percent of our oil came from other countries,” Bush observed. “Today, about 60 percent does.” This forces the American people not just to countenance thuggish regimes from afar, but to go to war for them (as in the Gulf War) or against them (as in the Iraq War), or at least to protect them and prop them up (as in the interregnum between those two wars).

One contributing factor in America’s apparent foreign-oil dependence (we will discuss the oil realities below) is the diminutive size of the US nuclear power industry, which remains too small for a country with the energy needs and appetite of the United States. Bush says that energy experts believe the US needs to build three new nuclear plants per year starting in 2015, just to keep pace with the country’s nuclear energy needs.

Yet the US has not ordered a new nuclear power plant since the 1970s. In fact, there were 112 reactors operating in the US in 1990; today, there are just 104. Bush wants to change that, forecasting construction of dozens of new nuclear plants by the end of this decade. In fact, as Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) observed during the Senate floor debate, thanks to the Energy Policy Act of 2004, “over 30 nuclear power plants are in the works…We went more than two decades without a single one applying, and we have now over 30.” Hailing America’s “nuclear renaissance,” he notes that once operational, “these plants will provide enough electricity for nearly 30 million American homes.”

In March, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved a site in Illinois for the first of these plants. As USAToday has reported, if built, it will be the first new nuclear plant to be constructed since 1979.

The three-decade delay was caused by three little letters: TMI. The failure of the feed-water pumps and consequent partial-core meltdown at Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island in March 1979 virtually nuked the US nuclear industry. After the near-disaster, which caused precisely zero deaths and zero injuries, orders for new reactors fell from a high of 41 in 1973 to zero. The fact that the two million residents of the area were exposed to one-sixth the amount of radiation absorbed in a typical chest x-ray was irrelevant. The damage had been done, and more was yet to come.[1]

Seven years after TMI, a fire at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the Soviet Union released huge amounts of radiation. More than two dozen workers died within months of the disaster, and thyroid cancer spiked among children.

To be sure, the deaths and lingering effects at Chernobyl are tragic. But the disaster should have forced Americans to redouble their efforts to build the safest nuclear plants on the planet. Instead, we did something uncharacteristic of Americans: We stopped building, stopped inventing, stopped pushing the frontiers of technology.

What if we had reacted in the same manner in April 1947, when a port explosion in Texas City, Texas, triggered a massive fire at an oil refinery and killed 500 people? Should we have stopped drilling, pumping, exploring and transporting oil; should we have reverted to windmills; should we have turned back to firewood?

Together, TMI and Chernobyl staggered and ultimately stunted the nuclear power industry in America. Thus, nuclear power accounts for just 20 percent of America’s electrical energy, while it supplies almost 80 percent of France’s electricity needs; 79.9 percent of Lithuania’s; 55 percent of Belgium’s; and 50 percent of Sweden’s. Energy-hungry China has built nine new reactors since 1991, with plans to accelerate its nuclear power program. And fully half of Ukraine’s energy comes from the atom. That’s right: even the place that bears the scars of Chernobyl recognizes the benefits of nuclear power.[2] (The ironies don’t end there: Recall how an energy-independent Iran—with enough oil and natural gas to meet its current energy demands for 256 years—is going nuclear, albeit for different reasons.)

 

[STL717]

cont.


But going nuclear isn’t the only answer for America. There are multiple paths to energy independence, and as the chaos and wars of the oil-rich Middle East continually remind us it is in the national interest to pursue all of them. That includes nuclear energy, bio-fuels like ethanol, hybrid technologies, conservation strategies like those in the Senate bill—and fossil fuels from right here in America.

If you think the United States has exhausted its own reserves of fossil fuels, think again. The Energy Information Administration, a sub-agency of the Department of Energy, reports that, at this moment, the US has 29.9 billion barrels of oil. In other words, the US actually possesses more oil than oil-exporting countries such as Mexico, Norway and the UK.[3]

Plus, there are vast, untapped oil fields and other energy sources inside the US:

• Just off the coast of Louisiana, Chevron has found an oil field—the “Jack 2” well—with 15 billion barrels of oil.
• The nonpartisan research firm RAND estimates that Colorado, Utah and Wyoming sit on a goldmine of oil-shale deposits, once thought to be too expensive to convert into petroleum. These states hold between 500 billion and 1.1 trillion recoverable barrels. As RAND’s James Bartis explained in 2005, “We’ve got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East.”[4]
• As The Economist has reported, drillers have discovered a billion barrels of oil in Sevier County, Utah, alone.
• Plus, the so-called Greater Rocky Mountain Region holds between 165 trillion and 260 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which explains why geologists are calling this swath of the US, “the Persian Gulf of natural gas.” (Iran, by way of comparison, sits atop 26.7 trillion cubic meters of natural gas.)

In fact, when we add America’s existing proven reserves to the new finds along the Gulf and in the Big Sky states, the US possesses more oil than all the smug, petroleum-producing headaches of the world—combined. More than Saudi Arabia, more than Iran, more than the UAE, more than Venezuela, more than Russia.

In short, contrary to the mantras of forlorn politicians and newsmen, the “energy crisis” is more a crisis of will than of availability/quantity: The future-fuel alternatives are there—in nuclear power and hybrids and, further down the road, hydrogen. Do we have the will to exploit them? And the fossil fuels are there today—in the Big Sky states and the Gulf and Alaska. Do we have the will to extract them?

The National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA) has found that “There is no evidence that the world, in general, or the United States, in particular, is running out of fossil fuels.” The very opposite may be more accurate:

• In 1874, geologists in Pennsylvania (then the major oil-producing state) predicted there was only four year’s worth of oil remaining in the US. Yet by 1945, proven reserves of oil in the US amounted to 20 billion barrels.
• Between 1945 and 1994, the US produced 135 billion barrels of oil domestically—“more than six times the entire amount known to exist in 1945.” Today, US reserves alone could sustain domestic oil needs for 38 to 75 years.
• In 1920, the US Geological Survey estimated total world oil supplies at 60 billion barrels. In 1950, the experts pushed that number to 600 billion. By 1990, world oil supplies were estimated at 2 trillion barrels. By the mid-1990s, the estimate was higher yet—2.4 trillion. And by 2000, it was even higher—3 trillion barrels of oil supply.

The reason for this constant upward readjustment is technology. NCPA notes that before the first US well was drilled in 1859, “petroleum supplies were limited to crude oil that oozed to the surface.” But thanks to technological advances, oil is being discovered in new places; and trapped oil is being extracted from old places, as with the oil-shale deposits in the western US.

At a consumption rate of 20.6 million barrels a day, America’s substantial oil reserves are not an endless supply. But they are enough to carry us, comfortably, to what might be called “the post-petro economy.”

Notes:

[1] US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, “Three Mile Island Accident,” www.nrc.gov.

[2] See Energy Information Administration, “Nuclear Power,” www.eie.doe.gov; Foreign Policy, “The List: Sapping Europe’s Energy,” www.foreignpolicy.com.

[3] See Energy Information Administration, “World Proved Reserves of Oil and Natural Gas, Most Recent Estimates,” www.eie.doe.gov.

[4] Jennifer Talhelm, “Study Reveals Huge US Oil-Shale Field,” The Seattle Times, September 1, 2005.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

My cousin worked at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland (North of DC), mostly developing miltary missles.

Everyone at his facility wore a radiation badge, due to the type of work carried on there.

A day or so after Three Mile Island, all of their radiation badges were maxed out, with doses beyond what their badges would read.

TMI was worse than the gov't admitted to.

Conversely, the new reactor types are very, very safe, and the death and injury rate with those plants on line are multiple times safer than coal fired facilities (miner deaths, deaths from air pollution, etc.).

The US badly needs new reactors to tide us over until we're using 100% renewable fuels.

cliff
YIP

PS-Jet fuel prices haven't climbed like I thought they would. The other day we topped off and tankered with fuel that cost about $5.90/gal, because the destination airport was $6.90/gal!!!

 

[jetflyer]

From: Reuters/CNBC

$95 Oil Seen if OPEC Holds Output Levels: Goldman Sachs
By Reuters | 16 Jul 2007 | 12:35 PM ET

U.S. crude prices could top $90 per barrel this autumn and hit $95 by the end of the year, if OPEC keeps oil production capped at current levels, Goldman Sachs said in a report issued on Monday.

U.S. oil prices have risen above $74 per barrel Monday, driven this month by higher demand and lower supplies (FROM ME: DID THEY ADMIT SUPPLY/DEMAND WAS ACTUALLY THE PROBLEM! WOW), the report said, pointing out that such fundamentals could tighten further unless key OPEC members hike output.

"We believe an increase in Saudi Arabian, Kuwaiti and UAE (United Arab Emirate) production by the end of the summer is critical, to avoid prices spiking above $90 a barrel this autumn," the report stated.

OPEC agreed last year to lower output by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), and Goldman said global oil production is down about 1 million bpd from last summer's levels.

Disappointing output growth from non-OPEC producers also helped tighten supplies, Goldman said, adding global demand was up by 1 million bpd from year-ago levels.

"Our estimates show that keeping OPEC production at current levels, and assuming normal weather this coming winter, total petroleum inventories would fall by over 150 million barrels or 6.5% by the end of the year, which would push prices to $95 a barrel without a demand response," the report forecast.

So the question is: Can Saudi Arabia increase oil production? Many are saying: "NO" because they're past peak oil with Ghawar declining very quickly.

The "production cuts" were announced after Saudi's oil production had already been falling steadily for 9 months. The cuts have continued month over month except when new fields were brought online which paused the declines. They're probably past peak which isn't good for the world.

Kuwait's Burghan field (second largest in the world) is past peak oil and declining quickly as well, so don't expect them to increase much.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

It's official peak oil is here now.........

From: Canada's Reportonbusiness.com

Oil executives sound alarm about fuel use

OTTAWA -- When executives from the world's largest oil companies say we need to cut back on our consumption, it should serve as the ultimate wake-up call about a looming energy crunch.

Yesterday, the former chairman of Exxon Mobil Corp. and the current chairman of Chevron Corp. led an urgent call for dramatic increases in vehicle fuel mileage standards and the rapid adoption of ethanol and other biofuels.

Without those measures and a host of others, the U.S. could face a punishing energy crisis by 2030 that would spare no energy consuming nation.

The call to arms was issued in Washington yesterday by a committee of the National Petroleum Council, which was chaired by former Exxon chairman Lee Raymond. He was joined on it by Chevron chairman and chief executive officer David O'Reilly.......

With U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman in attendance, the council released an exhaustive report on U.S. and global energy challenges over the next 25 years, and offered a series of "hard truths" about the massive investment, both public and private, needed to meet rising energy demand.....

The council also recommended the expansion of nuclear energy and concerted government effort to develop clean-coal technologies......

Jet