Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[Wiggums]

It is just a matter of building the infrastructure to convert it.

This is why I recommend everyone read the Hirsch report. Hirsch acknowledges that US has a huge coal reserve, and that the technology to liquefy it exists. However, the scale of such a project is huge.

Here are some numbers to consider. We consumed 7.593 billion barrels of crude oil in 2005. When peak oil hits the experts are looking at a decline rate of 3-7%. Taking the mid number, 5%, you are going to be short about 1 billion barrels per year in by the third year of the peak oil event. Why three years? Well read this excerpt from the Hirsch report concerning the construction of CTL plants in South Africa:

While the first two Sasol coal liquids production plants were built under normal business conditions, the Sasol Three facility was designed and constructed on a crash basis in response to the Iranian revolution of 1978-79. The project was completed in just over three years after the decision to proceed. Sasol Three was essentially a duplicate of Sasol Two on the same site using a large cadre of experienced personnel. Sasol Three was brought “up to speed almost immediately.

The Sasol Three example represents the lower bound on what might be accomplished in a twenty-first century crash program to build coal liquefaction plants. This is because the South African government made a quick decision to replicate an existing plant on an existing, coal mine-mouth site without the delays associated with site selection, environmental reviews, public comment periods, etc. In addition, engineering and construction personnel were readily available, and there were a number of manufacturers capable of providing the required heavy process vessels, pumps, and other auxiliary equipment. While we have not done a survey of worldwide capabilities to perform similar tasks today, it is our belief that such capabilities are now in much shorter supply – a situation that will worsen dramatically with the advent of a worldwide crash program to build alternate fuels plants. We have therefore attempted to strike a balance between what we believe could be a somewhat slow startup of a worldwide coal liquefaction industry and a later speed up as experience is gained and new plants are built as essentially duplicates of previous plants.

The South Africans took three years to build one coal to liquid plant that produces 100,000 bpd. This was without worrying about permitting, with experts and construction personal on hand, and with expertise from just building a similar facility. Now to make up our shortfall of 1 billion barrels per year in the third year after peak oil we would need 28 similar facilities, just to keep liquid fuels at 2005 levels. Even with a crash effort could we complete a project of this magnitude?

Sure this is a simplistic example, there will be other sources of energy plus conservation to mitigate peak oil. But these other solutions face many of the same issues. Any solution we might use will take years to ramp up in a period where our economy will be damaged by very expensive energy costs. Hopefully this helps explain why peak oil people are so worried.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

You are talking about the late 70's. Technology is advancing at such a fast pace that there is not much comparison. Will it take time? Sure it will. Didn't they just find a reserve of oil in the gulf of mexico that is almost as large as the current us reserve? That just happened in 06. Technology is a wonderful thing and is making it possible to find oil where we once couldn't and make old wells more productive.

http://www.infowars.com/articles/science/oil_gulf_of_mexico_saturated_with_oil.htm

 

[Wiggums]

Saying technology, in general, will save us is a poor argument. Can you name some specific technology that we could spool up to replace our demand for liquid fuel in a few years?

If you read what I quoted it explains why, if we are lucky, it will take the same amount of time to build a CTL plant as it did in the late 70s. How many CTL plants do we have in the United States right now? I don't believe we have any, the only current project is a proposal up in Montana. How many CTL experts do we have available? In fact, could we assemble enough experienced people to build this many projects? Don't forget that experts will be in demand for many other similar ventures in the same time period. At least we will have the technology of the internet to search for technical people on monster.com. We are not even considering the other issues, such as permitting, environmental impact, and public opposition.

The ultra-deep drilling in the GOM. It is interesting that you cite an article from a conspiracy website the also purports that 9/11 was purposely executed by our government. Maybe you would like to use this BW article as a better reference.

Plenty of Oil - Just Drill Deeper
http://tinyurl.com/fjv8z

The drilling of ultra-deep wells is still a little beyond current technology. There are some challenges that need to be solved, such as how to anchor the rigs, how to deal with 20,000 psi oil, and how to bring the oil to market. I believe there are only a handful of ultra-deep rigs in existence, and these are designed to drill test wells, not production wells. To bring this oil online we would have to solve the technological problems, build the rigs, drill the wells, and build the infrastructure to deliver the oil to market. The optimists are saying 2013 before this will all happen.

Most peak oil optimists say that we should open everywhere for drilling, ultra-deep GOM, the OCS, Alaska, etc. However, it takes years to spool up these projects and we are already behind.

 

[Wiggums]

Peak Oil Primer

If you've never heard of peak oil, or want a website for people to give them a full introduction in the topic, this is probably the best on the internet.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/1/3402/63420

 

[Secret Squirrel]

I tend to believe in Sustainable oil. Peak oil is just a tool of big business to keep prices high and profits soaring. Oil is a renewable resource created by the earth. Now put that in your pipe and smoke it.

http://www.wnd.com/news/printer-friendly.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38645

 

[jetflyer]

Here are some numbers to consider. We consumed 7.593 billion barrels of crude oil in 2005. When peak oil hits the experts are looking at a decline rate of 3-7%. Taking the mid number, 5%, you are going to be short about 1 billion barrels per year in by the third year of the peak oil event.

Wiggums,
Since you read articles at the www.theoildrum.com blog have you learned anything about geologist Jeffrey Brown's (oil drum id: West Texas) Export Land Model?

It has actually been proven. It is also why the importers of oil are going to have to deal with instead of 5% declines something more like 10%.

The "Export Land Model" works like this:
Act like all the exporters of the world are one country. We'll call it Export Land.

This Export land produces 60 million barrels a day.
They export 40 mbd.
They consume internally 20 mbd.

--When the declines begin they will lose 5% per year from their production. So after one year their production drops from 60 to 57 mbd.
--Their internal consumption will continue to rise, especially since their economy is getting such an incredible boost because of the oil revenues, and consumption will climb like the exporters today are seeing at about 5% per year. So after year one their consumption has climbed from 20 to 21 mbd.
--End of year 1: Available oil to importers is down from 40 mbd to 36 mbd.
A loss of 10%!

--Year 2 production of Export Land down to 54.15 mbd
--Internal consumption of Export Land up to 22.05 mbd
--End of year 2: Available oil to importers down from 36 mbd to 32.1 mbd.
A loss of 10.8%!!!

I think I actually did a good job explaining that. Do you agree?

So because the Export Land model will probably be what happens to the world, we'll need more than DOUBLE (about 2.25 X) the 28 new coal to oil plants you came up with just to keep our energy level even!

We're not used to having level consumption, and level consumption alone is horrible for an economy.

Competition for these available exports will heat up tremendously between countries like the U.S. and China. This is why China is circling the globe to lock in long-term contracts.

Understanding the Export Land Model will make one understand that the problem will be even worse than they first thought.

A 10% decline rate for importers is scary as hell..........

The DOE Study didn't even consider the Export Land Model when they made their assumptions on future needs.

This is why I think war is the only answer. I think it's our present and future.

Still an optimist though! I have to be, I have a baby girl coming in June!!
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

The World is Past Peak Oil

Peak Oil Date for Planet Earth:
All Liquids: the Peak is July 2006 at 85.47 mbd.

In my opinion, T. Boone Pickens, Matthew Simmons, Samson Bakhtiari, and most of the people of www.theoildrum.com the world is past peak oil and will never again rise above 85.47 mbd achieved last July.

This is because it is becoming more evident that Saudi Arabia is toast. They're done.

You have to look at this analysis from the oildrum blog of Saudi's production from 2006 which declined from January at 9.5 Million Barrels a day at to 8.7 at the end of the year.
MUST, MUST READ. Amazing analysis from the leading geologists on the peak oil study:
OIL DRUM BLOG ANALYSIS:
SAUDI ARABIA IS PAST THEIR PEAK OIL

Their decline was 8% for the year. It would have been 14% but Saudi Arabia increased their drilling rigs from 35 to 54 and started production from the Haradh III megaproject totaling 300,000 bpd which slowed decline in the middle of the year. Then production continued to fall.

The falls in production were linear and consistent throughout the year, except for the increase from Haradh.

Saudi Arabia's oil loss started 10 months before the "announced OPEC cuts" which occurred in November. The cut talks are to cover for the declines in many people's opinions.

No one will know for sure until the summer when the driving season heats up. It is becoming more and more evident that the many megaprojects to come online in the next few years from countries around the world will not be able to overcome the declines from existing oil fields, especially since Mexico is declining so fast as is Saudi Arabia.

My opinion: This news is too devastating for world financial markets to handle.
War with Iran will be what the oil price spike coming soon will be blamed on.

For national security reasons peak oil will not be acknowledged by the government because we can't let the American people or world know that one motive for our actions in the Middle East is oil.

It's official though. Peak Oil is past tense. We're living in a post-peak oil world now. We're still just barely past the plateau that occurred for two years, and the declines haven't caused shortages yet. If we had a cold winter, we would have had problems, but it was warm decreasing need for heating oil.

This summer though is going to be very, very interesting. If we don't invade Iran the news will be oil price spikes and declines in oil production from peak oil.

Our world is about to change, Go enjoy it now!!
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Matt Simmons:
Peak Oil Now, Oil Perhaps to $300

Watch this 5 minute Bloomberg interview with Matthew Simmons on Peak Oil:

A MUST WATCH:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IwtAQzrfiw

Matt Simmons was an adviser to Cheney during the Energy Policy Meetings. He is also chairman of the ASPO(Association for the Study of Peak Oil).

He is also a close Bush Family friend.

Jet

 

[SkiFishFly]

I tend to believe in Sustainable oil. Peak oil is just a tool of big business to keep prices high and profits soaring. Oil is a renewable resource created by the earth. Now put that in your pipe and smoke it.

http://www.wnd.com/news/printer-friendly.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38645

I'm with you and the theory presented in the link you attached. I have a pretty good scientific background and I have long held a belief that the whole theory of decayed plant and animal matter did not quite stand up to the reality of what we have observed.
How else do you explain the depth of some of the known oil deposits? It is because there is a process by which old mother earth makes oil - just like it does diamonds and gold.

 

[Bake]

jetflyer, I do not agree nor disagree with any of your posts on this forum. I also do not agree nor disagree with any of the propanganda you post. My question to you is this. Why are you so concerned? Do you have a large amount of cash invested in the oil industry that you want to cash in on? Do you believe that you can cash in on some other way if this ******************** you spew is true? If so, I don't blame you for posting it. Otherwise if you are a "the sky is falling" kind of guy, just go shoot yourself now and save all the rest of us from your misery. Honestly, even if oil quit pumping tomorrow, our economy might halt, everything you own might become worthless, (it probably already is) however it probably wont kill you so who gives a ********************.

Bake