Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[Secret Squirrel]

Damnit mamma, now you have gone and done it. Jetflyer is going to come back on here and post three pages of links again.

 

[jetflyer]

WARNING: PURE SPECULATION:

I've said repeatedly in this thread that I thought war with Iran was the likely scenario that would BE BLAMED for forcing oil prices higher this summer. I think it will come before the end of APRIL.

The world is past peak oil.

This happened in August of 2006 and world oil production has been declining since. Saudi's oil production has been declining since late 2004. The warmest winter in recorded history reducing demand for heating oil and the drawing down of global inventories at record levels has kept shortages from being seen.

The oil inventory drawdowns are making energy analysts nervous and there are calls for OPEC to increase production. It will not be able to increase more than a few hundred thousand barrels a day. Not enough for the oil thirsty summer driving season.

The U.S. and Saudi Arabian governments both have interests in keeping global peak oil secret. Saudi definitely doesn't want the world to know their oil production is declining fast. The U.S. can't let oil be looked on as a motive for Middle East military action.

The "War with Iran" will cause the Straits of Hormuz to be shut for a while hindering oil tanker traffic which will give Saudi Arabia their "EXCUSE" as to why they can't get their oil to market even though they want to. You may even see a stray missle from Iran "DAMAGE" some of the Saudi oil infrastructure.

Russian intelligence leaks are saying that April 6th, Good Friday, and the anniversary of the beginning of WWI, is the day that "War with Iran" will begin:
http://infidelsarecool.com/2007/03/...ce-us-attack-on-iran-planned-for-early-april/
I doubt that will be the day, but I'm sure it will be in the next few months.

Iran holding the British soldiers gives perfect cover for the U.S. to look like the good guys in going into Iran.

Blair is now saying that the hostage situation will enter a new phase if they are not returned.
Link BBC

From Russia News and Info:
Russia says US military building up along Iranian border:

MOSCOW, March 27 (RIA Novosti) - Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran's borders, a high-ranking security source said Tuesday.

"The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran," the official said, adding that the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched.

He said the Pentagon is looking for a way to deliver a strike against Iran "that would enable the Americans to bring the country to its knees at minimal cost."

He also said the U.S. Naval presence in the Persian Gulf has for the first time in the past four years reached the level that existed shortly before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, said last week that the Pentagon is planning to deliver a massive air strike on Iran's military infrastructure in the near future.

A new U.S. carrier battle group has been dispatched to the Gulf.

The USS John C. Stennis, with a crew of 3,200 and around 80 fixed-wing aircraft, including F/A-18 Hornet and Superhornet fighter-bombers, eight support ships and four nuclear submarines are heading for the Gulf, where a similar group led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been deployed since December 2006.

The U.S. is also sending Patriot anti-missile systems to the region.

I would not doubt the use of bunker-buster nuclear weapons on hardened underground nuclear facilities in Iran. This will be a statement from the Bush administration that they have no limits and do not want to be interfered with in their actions in the Middle East.

The world is changing. The most important natural resource on the planet is depleting and the governments of the world are positioning themselves for a post-peak oil world. There will be a lot of war. Iran is the beginning.

It's not too late to fill that gas tank or fill your money in precious metal or energy financial instruments!
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

US Govt GAO REPORT ON PEAK OIL to be released

Published on 28 Mar 2007 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 28 Mar 2007.
GAO report on peak oil to be released

by Lisa Wright

Washington, DC -- Congressmen Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) and Tom Udall (D-NM), co-chairmen of the Congressional Peak Oil Caucus, announce a Capitol Hill news conference on Thursday, March 29, 2007 between 11:30 am and 12:00 noon in HC-9 of the Capitol to discuss the release of an embargoed GAO report.

The report will reveal the United States is particularly vulnerable and the United States federal government is unprepared to respond to severe consequences from an increasing risk of significant disruptions to world oil supplies from peak oil and other above ground political and economic factors.

When: Thursday, March 29, 2007
Where: HC-9, Capitol
Time: 11:30 am -12:00 noon

Members of Congress participating in the Capitol Hill news conference:

Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD), co-chair, Congressional Peak Oil Caucus

Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM), co-chair, Congressional Peak Oil Caucus

Other news conference participant speaker:

Mark E. Gaffigan, Acting Director, Natural Resources & Environment Team

U.S. Government Accountability Office

Will the world finally wake up and start getting serious about alternatives to oil?

Will we finally start reducing our dependence on foreign oil?

I pray it is so......

Or will this report be buried like the U.S. Govt. DOE Report on Peak Oil and the Army Corp of Engineer Study on Peak Oil? I bet it will for "national security reasons".

Jet

 

[blzr]

got to hand it to FLYER, he is a good investigative reporter.

 

[jetflyer]

The U.S. Govt. GAO REPORT ON PEAK OIL is titled:
"CRUDE OIL: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production"

Supposedly Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett gave a copy to EVWORLD.
It can be found at this link:
http://www.evworld.com/library/gao_peakoil.pdf

I'm starting to read it now......
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

For some reason the Peak Oil Documentary:
"The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream" was taken off Google.

Here is the link to the Peak Oil documentary at YOUTUBE:
The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on oil

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

A great summary of the GAO study can be found here by the energybulletin:
GAO: U.S. Needs a Peak Oil Strategy

I'm actually disappointed in this study. It basically just says:
--We don't know when peak oil will be. It could be now until 2040.
--The U.S. is not prepared if peak oil occurred now and economic hardship would almost be certain.
--Alternatives to oil are not ready and will take a lot of time to expand.

They basically just say to the U.S. Govt.: Do more research into this because it's dang important!

Conclusions from the GAO REPORT:

.The prospect of a peak in oil production presents problems of global proportion whose consequences will depend critically on our preparedness. The consequences would be most dire if a peak occurred soon, without warning, and were followed by a sharp decline in oil production because alternative energy sources, particularly for transportation, are not yet available in large quantities. Such a peak would require sharp reductions in oil consumption, and the competition for increasingly scarce energy would drive up prices, possibly to unprecedented levels, causing severe economic damage. While these consequences would be felt globally, the United States, as the largest consumer of oil and one of the nations most heavily dependent on oil for transportation, may be especially vulnerable among the industrialized nations of the world.

What GAO Recommends for Peak Oil:

To better prepare for a peak in oil production, GAO recommends that the Secretary of Energy work with other agencies to establish a strategy to coordinate and prioritize federal agency efforts to reduce uncertainty about the likely timing of a peak and to advise Congress on how best to mitigate consequences. In commenting on a draft of the report, the Departments of Energy and the Interior generally agreed with the report and recommendations.​

Interesting new study I'll have to look forward to talked about in the GAO study:

In addition, in response to growing peak oil concerns, DOE asked the National Petroleum Council to study peak oil issues. The study is expected to be completed by June 2007.​

Well I hope the government starts to take it seriously. I doubt it though.

Like T.Boone Pickens said this morning on CNBC the world is at peak oil and will never go above 85 MBD again. We're already past peak oil and the government won't start taking it seriously until the prices start to really, really elevate and there are shortages.​

Jet​

 

[jetflyer]

CNBC talked about the GAO Peak Oil study today.
Matthew Simmons was one of the guests talking about Peak Oil again.

Here is the link:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=233654042&play=1

Jet

 

[SkiFishFly]

Wasn't there something in the news today about a major new oil find off the coast of China?

 

[jetflyer]

Skifishfly,

2 billion barrels. That will last the world 23 days....

Plus it won't be on the market for 5-10 years.

Not fast enough to save us this summer if Saudi is past their peak oil like everyone is coming to believe and that they won't be able to increase their oil production this summer.

Global inventories are dropping at record rates right now because oil production is too low for even this slow demand season. Wait till the summer, or like I think when Iran gets hit in the next month or two.

Jet

 

[jonjuan]

Nutball>>>>>>>>>>>>

Why do you waste your time on a pilot web board? Shouldn't you be over at the PETA board? Nobody cares. If I were you, i'd spend the rest of my miserable days waiting for the oil apocalypse on a sailboat cruising the caribbean.

 

[jetflyer]

Naa Johjuan,

I like fur coats on the ladies and love eating meat. Redder the better. I also love driving fast cars with big engines.

I also would like to see ANWR opened up to drilling, both coasts drilled, coal turned into oil as well as the oil shale.

People like me are saying let's do these things very quickly. Let's also at the same time encourage alternatives for when the oil production begins to decline.

I am patriotic and thinking of my countries best interests. We need to reduce our dependence on them darn foreigners for our oil

I'd also like to keep flying my gas guzzling airplane since it's what I do for a living!

An Apollo project for alternatives to oil and oil exploration is needed. The sooner we start the easier the transition will be and we won't see an "oil apocalypse".

One day people will wish they listened to us "nutballs".

Jet

 

[jonjuan]

Koooooo,koooooooooo

 

[jetflyer]

If anyone tried to watch the CNBC program on the GAO study on Peak Oil located at the CNBC site, you realized that it kept interrupting at about minute 4 and would not finish.

Everyone Must Watch:
The CNBC Peak Oil GAO Study discussion with Matthew Simmons has been put on Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fo3sxhBylw

Believing that demand may outstrip supply for oil does not make anyone
"Koooooo,koooooooooo". That is just retarded.

What's funny is Matt Simmons even says in this interview: "This is not a Kook issue "

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

If anyone watched the CNBC interview, they can no longer call me a kook:
The CNBC PeakOil GAO Study discussion with Matthew Simmons has been put on Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fo3sxhBylw

Has anyone watched it? Jonjuan you have a lot to learn, and you really need to watch it.

Not a kook. Not a doomsdayer, just educated on this important issue,
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Somebody help me out that has watched the CNBC interview or studied anything on this topic.

Somebody with courage, tell people I'm not a kook......... please! lol

I genuinely feel this is the most important issue facing mankind now.

Screw Global Warming. This is way more important and immediate.

This is also NOT a political issue. This issue says throw politics in the trash.....

Jet

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Jetflyer is 95% correct.

The problem is change. Humans don't like change.

Even though we've existed for millions of years without oil, and only 100 with oil, all of us alive only know living with oil.

Even thinking about living without oil give many people a headache.

Most people I know want to simplify the world. It's the old "KISS" principle.
Unfortunately, virtually EVERYTHING in the world is very, very complicated. Nothing is simple in our universe.

Quitting oil, as we will do, is very, very complicated. People can't evision life without oil.

Most of us here on flightinfo are smarter than average. Almost all of us depend on oil now for our jobs.

We can be leading the way in America and in our world with new ideas and concepts of an oil-less world. We can explain to those we meet how it can be done, and HOW IT CAN BE BETTER.

If people can see that is could be better, they are more likely to think about changing.

The change is coming. Are we going to be pro-active, as we ask our management to be, or are we going to be reactive? Helping create the change lessons the chance that you will lose your job in a forced change.

I'm looking forward to flying a high-performance aircraft powered by something other than oil.

cliff
YIP

PS-I'm also worried about the change. You aren't alone.

 

[jetflyer]

Call me a conspiracy theorist. I am. My tin foil cap is on tight!

This PEAK OIL GAO Study was kept out of EVERY MAJOR MEDIA NEWS outlet except the CNBC interview.

The CIA admitted in this document back in 1991 they can control the media:
CIA MEDIA CONTROL DOCUMENT -
CIA Memorandum Subject: Task Force Report on Greater CIA Openness - dated December 1991 (PDF) or Read Each page in JPG format
From the CIA's own words which should scare you to death:

"PAO [Public Affairs Office] now has relationships with reporters from every major wire service, newspaper, news weekly, and television network in the nation. This has helped us turn some intelligence failure stories into intelligence success stories, and it has contributed to the accuracy of countless others. In many instances, we have persuaded reporters to postpone, change, hold, or even scrap stories that could have adversely affected national security interests or jeopardized sources and methods."

I believe peak oil and even the GAO Study is being kept from the masses on purpose for "national security interests".

We can't have people thinking oil is the motive for the war that will happen with Iran very, very soon.

One paper in Pennsylvania did report on the GAO study:
America 'Unnecessarily at Risk' from Looming Fall off in Petroleum
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
I pulled out some of the highlights:

The nation has been put "unnecessarily at risk," according to the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office.
The reason: failure of federal agencies to have a "coordinated or well-defined strategy either to reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak [in oil production] or to mitigate its consequences.".....

In the absence of alternative fuels, peak oil poses enormous consequences for our way of life, which is heavily dependent on petroleum to move people and goods.....

Former oil men George W. Bush and Dick Cheney cannot be among those in the dark on this, though they clearly have chosen not to make it an issue for reasons we may not find out until they publish their memoirs. By then, they may have a lot of explaining to do.

Everyone in the industry knows that the United States cannot drill itself to energy independence. There simply is not enough oil left in the ground.

U.S. domestic oil production peaked in 1970. Not even the subsequent pumping of oil from the large North Slope fields of Alaska was sufficient to bring U.S. production back to where it had been.

Production in most oil producers outside the Middle East also has peaked, including Norway, Great Britain, Mexico and Indonesia......

Major oil-producer Kuwait recently dramatically revised downward its remaining oil reserves.

For a variety of reasons, alternative fuels may not be sufficiently available to make up for any drop in petroleum. That's particularly true, the GAO report notes, if peak oil occurs in the next decade or so.

Alternative fuels currently provide only the equivalent of 1 percent of petroleum consumption in the U.S. and are projected to displace only 4 percent of petroleum by 2015. That's why the push for conservation and pumped up investment in alternative energy is so urgent. A transition away from oil can't be accomplished overnight...

They wanna keep the people dumb on oil production problems. If we're all stupid sheep we're more easy to herd

The media always emphasizes the demand is strong from India and China, etc. They never mention supply has not increased in 2 1/2 years and may now be decreasing!

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Anybody like my new Avatar?!
Jet

 

[Cobra]

Yep, I like your avatar.

Maybe with peak oil and the associated changes people will stop breeding like rabbits. Thoughts?

 

[jetflyer]

Yep, I like your avatar.

Maybe with peak oil and the associated changes people will stop breeding like rabbits. Thoughts?

With peak oil we'll have peak population for planet earth in my opinion. Population for the Earth will probably fall as people decide not to breed because of the economic difficulties or because they can't afford to feed any more rabbit mouths.

Look at food prices. According to the GAO study, alternative fuels mostly from biofuels are only 1% of the United States' fuel usage. Current projections say it will be 4% by 2015.

Food prices are skyrocketing because of the switch to food for our fuel. The United States quit this year exporting corn because of the ethanol craze. We've always been a MAJOR exporter of corn for many countries.

Also farmers are deciding to produce corn for ethanol or other bio-fuel crops instead of wheat, carrots, etc. We're gonna have to decide in the future whether to eat or drive if we continue this madness.....

Mexico is seeing such high corn tortilla prices there are riots in Mexico over this! People are going hungry already.

Also Fossil fuels are very necessary for food production. All pesticides are from natural gas and almost all fertilizers are from OIL.

Feeding the people of the world in the future will be a large challenge especially in poor countries.

Jet

p.s. look at my situation. My wife and I are expecting a little girl in late May. Our first. We always wanted two, but we're gonna stop at one mostly because of peak oil.

 

[blzr]

Looks like that war with Iran is not far away now. President "Nutjob" of Iran is again defying the U.N. This guy is trying to provoke a fight with the west.

My question, what will a war with Iran do, in the short term, to the airline industry?

 

[jetflyer]

I wouldn't even want to guess. There are too many variables.

20 MBD. That's about 1/2 of the world's EXPORT oil that goes through the Straits of Hormuz right where the world is going to be fighting this battle.

Iran only exports about 2 1/2 mbd or about 6% of the world's EXPORT oil goes through the Straits. Their oil production could stop if we go to war.

Oil shocks larger than the 1970's oil shocks could happen very quickly.

Let's hope we kick Iran's ass quick even if we gotta nuke their asses and get Halliburton in there with their Radiation Suits to keep Iran's oil running.

Jet

 

[UALjan15]

Call me a conspiracy theorist. I am. My tin foil cap is on tight!

This PEAK OIL GAO Study was kept out of EVERY MAJOR MEDIA NEWS outlet except the CNBC interview.


Jet

So.....if keeping this out of the media is so easy, then why did it make it onto CNBC--a major media outlet?

 

[C-150ETOPS]

p.s. look at my situation. My wife and I are expecting a little girl in late May. Our first. We always wanted two, but we're gonna stop at one mostly because of peak oil.

If you really believe in the P.O. theory and what could happen, you might want to try to have another kid, preferably a tough arse little male that likes guns and Mad Max movies.

Counting on one little girl to play "Xena the Warrior Princess" to save your future elderly arse from the gas raiding hordes isn't going to cut it.:uzi:

Get a boy, teach him the phrase, "I'm the Duke of New York, I'm A-Number One":laugh:

 

[Phaedrus]

I love it. You'll be dead from stress-induced causes long before you'll be flying an acorn-squash fueled aircraft.

 

[jetflyer]

If anyone liked seeing Matthew Simmons on CNBC talking about the GAO report you'll absolutely love this more in depth radio interview with Matthew Simmons on Jim Puplava's "Financial Sense Newshour":

Select an Audio Format for the Matthew Simmons Radio Interview discussing the GAO Report on Peak Oil:
RealPlayer | WinAmp | Windows Media l mp3

It's a definite must listen and he is unbridled and tells you what he really thinks,
Jet

 

[STL717]

Bad news sells!



Why are we even worrying about GLOBAL WARMING if we are out of oil?

Global warming is a non-issue if we have no more hydrocarbons to burn, or maybe more realistically much fewer hydrocarbons to burn.

We use crude oil for energy because it is the cheapest energy available right now, and has been for over 100 years. When it gets expensive we will use some other less expensive fuel for energy.

David Neeleman CEO of JetBlue has already worked on the possibility of synthetic jet fuel from coal. However no one will invest the $6 BILLION per a plant to create $1 per gallon synthetic jet fuel because they will lose their investment if crude gets cheap again.

More info on
COAL-TO-LIQUIDS TECHNOLOGY
http://www.westernroundtable.com/Hill_CTL_Briefing_2_07.pdf

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

We have changed our climate a TON in a short time, too short for us to adept effectively. Even if we quit warming the globe today, we still have to pull carbon out of the environment somehow, to REDUCE global warming, so that the negative effects can be managed realistically.

We've waited a long, long time to correct the negative effects we've had on the planet. THe longer we wait, the worse the effects will be.

cliff
SHV

 

[STL717]

Hi!

We have changed our climate a TON in a short time, too short for us to adept effectively. Even if we quit warming the globe today, we still have to pull carbon out of the environment somehow, to REDUCE global warming, so that the negative effects can be managed realistically.

We've waited a long, long time to correct the negative effects we've had on the planet. THe longer we wait, the worse the effects will be.

cliff
SHV

We have not changed the climate. The socialist world leaders and the scientists receiving grants want you to think that, and the media makes sure you hear gloom and doom man made global warming stories every day. They want your money!

They want your money so they can fight this natural occurring variation in the climate, which they can’t change. They want your money to use it as they please. They want this control over you.

There is no consensus.

Do some research and see what you find. Don’t take the media’s daily gloom and doom stories for face value.

The climate was 2 degrees F. warmer for over a century back in the 1200’s. The climate was much colder during the little ice age in the 1500 -1700’s which also was a time of minimum sun spot activity. Since the little ice age the earth has been warming while the sun has also increased its energy output.

When (I think we will pay for carbon soon), they start taxing carbon (CO2) it will damage commercial aviation. For every pound of jet fuel you burn, you create 3.15 pounds of carbon dioxide. You produce tons of carbon dioxide on every flight.