Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[jetflyer]

Bake,

Until the last few weeks I thought peak oil was still a couple years off. Now I think it has already passed and the "Long Emergency" is just beginning.

The problem of peak oil has the potential to send us deep into a great depression way worse than than what happen in the 1930's. So yes I'm scared and don't want that to happen if it doesn't have to.

I saw this scary thing (peak oil) two years ago and like other peak oiler believers have been screaming from rooftops telling congressmen and everyone that would listen so that we could do the preemptive steps necessary to avert this crisis.

Now, I still hope our leaders will do what is necessary so we can avert this crisis as much as possible. The more we do TODAY the easier tomorrow will be for our society. The inaction is astounding and frightening.

There is a lot that needs to be done. There are a lot of things that are being done that are retarded and need to be stopped. Example: Corn from ethanol. It needs to be done through cellulosic ways or get ethanol from other sources, but the lobbyists rule Washington.

Also I want to help people.

This is mostly going to be a financial problem for everyone. If I can help one person save some of their finances then I feel so good. I hope you everyone that listens to me has put some of their money in energy or precious metal stocks or mutual funds.

We can all profit from this in some ways or atleast protect some of our money.

I also might encourage one person to get the more fuel efficient Prius than the sports car.

Maybe someone will choose to get solar panels on their home like Bush and Cheney have.

We all have to try to make a difference in this world.

I'm not trying to scare people. I'm trying to help people.

Knowledge is Power. Do you think you're better off not knowing?


Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Bake,

I also am a believer that word of mouth can make a difference.

If I tell 200 people and they each tell 2 and then those 2 tell 2, then possibly thousands of people may find out about peak oil from me indirectly.

A lot of those individuals may save their retirements because of me.

Also, eventually enough of the right people may find out indirectly from me, like say the President of Delta. Maybe the President of Delta will get a lot more fuel hedges because of me and thousands of people will one day save their jobs.

I believe I can make a difference. I hope I can.

Jet

 

[radar_contact]

jetflyer, I do not agree nor disagree with any of your posts on this forum. I also do not agree nor disagree with any of the propanganda you post. My question to you is this. Why are you so concerned? Do you have a large amount of cash invested in the oil industry that you want to cash in on? Do you believe that you can cash in on some other way if this ******************** you spew is true? If so, I don't blame you for posting it. Otherwise if you are a "the sky is falling" kind of guy, just go shoot yourself now and save all the rest of us from your misery. Honestly, even if oil quit pumping tomorrow, our economy might halt, everything you own might become worthless, (it probably already is) however it probably wont kill you so who gives a ********************.

Bake

Hey Bake, didn't you see this guys posts a while back about the "9/11 Mysteries"? This guy knows it all.

 

[Phaedrus]

Yeah, but who killed ANS?

 

[Bake]

Jetflyer, First of all you are a dumbass. Now that we have that part of the equation figured out the rest of it is simple.

What good is your prius going to do.??? Are you going to drive that to your jet job??? Who cares what kind of money people have in their "mutual funds" "gold stocks", or "oil investement trusts".. Don't you see (of course not because you are a dumbass). NOne of this matters. YOur life depends on food and water not oil and mutual funds. Shelter comes in a close third.. None of these things are hard to find, even without oil. Get over it dip******************** you are not going to die if the oil is gone. You have been watching too much Mad Max.

 

[jetflyer]

From: http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/18173/

Ethanol Demand Threatens Food Prices
-Rising corn prices are already affecting everything from the cost of tortillas in Mexico City to the cost of producing eggs in the United States.

...The recent rise in corn prices--almost 70 percent in the past six months--caused by the increased demand for ethanol biofuel has come much sooner than many agriculture economists had expected.....

...The jump in corn prices is already affecting the cost of food......

...The impact of this is being felt first in animal feed, particularly poultry and pork. Poultry feed is about two-thirds corn; as a result, the cost to produce poultry--both meat and eggs--has already risen about 15 percent due to corn prices, says Tyner. Also expect corn syrup--used in soft drinks--to get more expensive, he says.....

It's going to be our choice in the future.

We can eat or drive...

Hydrocarbons or Carbohydrates. Both have carbon and hydrogen.

With peak oil, not only will fertilizers and pesticides from fossil fuels be in short supply to make the food, but we'll have to decide through the power of PRICE whether we'll use that food to eat or drive with.

Many people are going to be very hungry because they can't afford enough food in the future.

It's also hard to put food on the table at all if you don't have a job because the economy has retracted so much because of peak oil.

So yes a lack of oil is going to make food less plentiful and affordable for human consumption Bake.

Hope you learned something!
Jet

 

[Dave Grohl]

Forget petroleum...I wanna drive one of these:

http://www.teslamotors.com/index.php?js_enabled=1

 

[altscap]

That artical is speculation at best. If this were the case it would be national news on the front page of every paper and the headline of every media outlet. You mean to tell me some little reporter from Atlanta is the only one to have picked up on this?

Do you honestly believe the American media is still a free-thinking entity? A few bucks here, a kids education there, and honest, legitimate journalism is non-existent. How many stories have been squashed by the military with nothing more than the threat of pulling the mdeia out of there embedded positions? It's all fluff and warm fuzzies, to keep the ignorant American population from realizing what's going on and the ramifications of events they don't understand.

Disclaimer: there is still good journalism out there, but it's no longer going to be found at the big media outlets.

 

[T-Bags]

Oil Innovations Pump New Life Into Old Wells


http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/05/business/05oil1.html?em&ex=1173330000&en=a9ff5f24c2d39b38&ei=5087

Dumba$s Ludites....

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,

I read people talking about this article and how it was bogus at www.theoildrum.com and I thought it wasn't that big of a deal. But because you referred to it, I read it. This article did amaze me. This is a total hit-piece on the peak oil movement referring to something that has been used widely for decades to distract away from the fact that peak oil has already been passed.

What's new about what's going on with enhanced oil recovery techniques!?
This has been used since the 1950's.
This is talked about in depth in the U.S. DOE Study as a matter of fact.

I don't want to burst your bubble of hope, but enhanced oil recovery techniques are nothing new and have been going on forever.

In the Red Sea, Australia, Mexico's Cantarell and Saudi Arabia's Ghawar these techniques were used at the first sign of pressure decline in the fields. They didn't let the production decline before using them. A lot of current giant fields use these methods right away.

Mexico's Cantarell field used nitrogen injection for so long to keep the field alive that when you reach the end the declines are enormously large. This is what is feared to be going on in Ghawar as well. Cantarell's production lost 500kbd last year alone still using the EOR techniques.

Enhanced Oil Recover techniques include field flooding with steam, water, carbon dioxide, natural gas, nitrogen etc. These will increase internal pressure and force the oil out.

Also you can have multilateral wells that have many openings extending in each direction to get more oil.

You can also have horizontal drilling to get into the small pockets of oil that were first missed through conventional drilling.

Combined in 2006 Mexico lost 500,000 bpd and Saudi Arabia lost 800,000bpd. That is a total of 1,300,000 bpd lost from those two countries alone that used EOR techniques!

That doesn't count the other 33 major oil producing countries in decline like the United States. Even with these Enhanced Oil Recovery Techniques, last year U.S. production continued to decline and oil drilling reached record highs. This is in the most advanced country in the world.

T-Bags I pray as much as you that something new comes along that can save us, but unfortunately I'm afraid old wells won't be it. They will slow the decline, but the decline will be a freight train that like the U.S. DOE says won't be able to be stopped unless you started alternatives 10 years ahead of time.

From the DOE STUDY on page 40 discussing Enhanced Oil Recovery Techniques:

Improved Oil Recovery (IOR) is used to varying degrees on all oil reservoirs.

IOR encompasses a variety of methods to increase oil production and to expand
the volume of recoverable oil from reservoirs. Options include in-fill drilling,
hydraulic fracturing, horizontal drilling, advanced reservoir characterization,
enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and a myriad of other methods that can increase
the flow and recovery of liquid hydrocarbons. IOR can also include many
seemingly mundane efficiencies introduced in daily operations.​

IOR technologies are adapted on a case-by-case basis. It is not possible to
estimate what IOR techniques or processes might be applied to a specific
reservoir without having detailed knowledge of that reservoir. Such knowledge is
rarely in the public domain for the large conventional oil reservoirs in the world; if
it were, then a more accurate estimate of the timing of world oil peaking would be
possible.​

A particularly notable opportunity to increase production from existing oil
reservoirs is the use of enhanced oil recovery technology (EOR), also known as tertiary recovery. EOR is usually initiated after primary and secondary recovery have provided most of what they can provide. Primary production is the process by which oil naturally flows to the surface because oil is under pressure
underground. Secondary recovery involves the injection of water into a reservoir
to force additional oil to the surface.​

EOR has been practiced since the 1950s in various conventional oil reservoirs,
particularly in the United States. The process that likely has the largest
worldwide potential is miscible flooding wherein carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen or
light hydrocarbons are injected into oil reservoirs where they act as solvents to
move residual oil. Of the three options, CO2 flooding has proven to be the most
frequently useful. Indeed, naturally occurring, geologically sourced CO2 has
been produced in Colorado and shipped via pipeline to west Texas and New
Mexico for decades for EOR. CO2 flooding can increase oil recovery by 7-15
percent of original oil in place (OOIP).Because EOR is relatively expensive, it
has not been widely deployed in the past. However, in a world dealing with peak
conventional oil production and higher oil prices, it has significant potential.​

Because of various cost considerations, enhanced oil recovery processes are
typically not applied to a conventional oil reservoir until after oil production has
peaked. Therefore, EOR is not likely to increase reservoir peak production.
However, EOR can increase total recoverable conventional oil, and production
from the reservoirs to which it is applied does not decline as rapidly as would
otherwise be the case. This concept is notionally shown in Figure IV-1. ​

LOOK AT PAGE 40 for the figure.​

So yes T-Bags it will make a difference, but this has been going on since the 1950's. Also with oil prices being so high these last couple years it has been used widely in the U.S. Other countries of the world are doing it as well, but it never brings fields that have already peaked to higher levels. ​

Expanding Enhanced Oil Recovery techniques is like all the other alternatives. It is probably one of the most significant but just one of the bunch.​

Dumba$s Luddite out...........

Jet​

​

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,

By the way if you're going to personally attack me and call me a Dumba$s Luddite, atleast spell "Luddite" correctly. OH THE IRONY!! :laugh:

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Forget petroleum...I wanna drive one of these:

http://www.teslamotors.com/index.php?js_enabled=1

I agree that electric cars like that Tesla Roadster or plug-in hybrids which drive 30-50 miles on electric batteries before using gasoline as the backup will be our future.

The batteries for the Plug-In hybrids keep getting better. Eventually we may be able to drive hundreds of miles on the batteries before using the gasoline as a backup.

That Tesla Roadster rocks doesn't it!? (Lotus body all electric with amazing range and acceleration)

I don't think Hydrogen should be our future. You have to use an equal amount of fossil fuels or some other energy source to produce the hydrogen.

It's not free!

Also hydrogen being the smallest element is very difficult to contain or keep as a liquid. The storage obstacle is almost unsurmountable and makes hydrogen not practical.

Plus Hydrogen is just a way for the BIG OIL COMPANIES to have a future after oil starts depleting. They were going to shift over their current gas stations to hydrogen stations, but this dream for the Oil Companies is quickly diminishing.

Electric transportation is a much more viable future.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

I don't know why but a long post I did on the importance of oil to food production and a post by Rick James defending me are now gone.

Strange....

Well anyways I think that oil is so important to food production I'll post some highlights from what I said before:
From HERE:

WHY OIL IS SO IMPORTANT TO FOOD PRODUCTION

Petrochemicals are key components to much more than just the gas in your car. As geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer points out in his article entitled, "Eating Fossil Fuels," approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US.

The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step of modern food production is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered:

Pesticides are made from oil;

Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas, which will peak about 10 year after oil peaks;

With the exception of a few experimental prototypes, all farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed and powered using oil;

Food storage systems such as refrigerators are manufactured in oil-powered plants, distributed across oil-powered transportation networks and usually run on electricity, which most often comes from natural gas or coal;

In the US, the average piece of food is transported almost 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate. In Canada, the average piece of food is transported 5,000 miles from where it is produced to where it is consumed.

In short, people gobble oil like two-legged SUVs.

I recommend everyone read "EATING FOSSIL FUELS":

In the United States, 400 gallons of oil equivalents are expended annually to feed each American. Agricultural energy consumption is broken down as follows:

· 31% for the manufacture of inorganic fertilizer from natural gas

· 19% for the operation of field machinery

· 16% for transportation

· 13% for irrigation

· 08% for raising livestock (not including livestock feed)

· 05% for crop drying

· 05% for pesticide production from OIL

· 08% miscellaneous8

Energy costs for packaging, refrigeration, transportation to retail outlets, and household cooking are not considered in these figures.

Nitrogen is needed for crops to grow. Our topsoil is very deprived so natural gas is used for almost all of the nitrogen inputs today in our crops produced.

Without fossil fuels, the population of the Earth would not have gone from 1 billion in the mid-1800's to 6+Billion today.

When fossil fuels begin their decline the carrying capacity of the Earth will not be 6+ Billion any more, and there will be people struggling to get enough food.

So Bake I hope you can see, food production is very dependent on oil and other fossil fuels.

Hope you learned something!

Jet

 

[JohnDoe]

I saw that tesla roadster on the discovery channel the other night ("future cars" or something like that).

With the exception of the 100-150 mile range (not positive on that, but still great for an electric car) one would hardly know it was all electric. 0-60 mph in roughly 4 seconds. Not bad looking either.

Too bad it is around $90k to purchase.

 

[jetflyer]

I saw that tesla roadster on the discovery channel the other night ("future cars" or something like that).

With the exception of the 100-150 mile range (not positive on that, but still great for an electric car) one would hardly know it was all electric. 0-60 mph in roughly 4 seconds. Not bad looking either.

Too bad it is around $90k to purchase.

Their site says 250 mile range, but I'm sure doing 0-60 in 4 secs a few times will reduce that to 100-150 mile range really quickly!

Jet

 

[T-Bags]

"Therefore, EOR is not likely to increase reservoir peak production"

Wow, silly me!! I'm now wondering how the Kern River field production, which had previously peaked at around 40,000 BPD could have possibly increased from approx 25,000 BPD to approx 140,000 BPD after steam injection was started...

"31% for the manufacture of inorganic fertilizer from natural gas"

I'm afraid now!! I didn't realize we fertilize our crops with CH4!! Oh wait... in reality, we use NH3!! The N doesn't come from Gas, the H's do. So, if you can use electricity to produce H2 for your nifty ALGORE 3000 sedan, then we can certainly use it to produce H2 for the production of NH3. If we can use electricity to power our ElectroNader mopeds, we can use electricity to power our tractors. Why do we use Natural gas? BECAUSE IT IS CURRENTLY THE CHEAPEST METHOD!!

Why did U.S. oil production peak in the 70's? BECAUSE IT WAS CHEAPER TO DRILL ELSEWHERE. PEAK OIL IS AN ECONOMIC PHENOMENON!! I could cut my family's petro consumption by 80% within WEEK if I needed to.

Why does it appear that oil production has "peaked"? Due to the extensive drilling done in OPEC countries during the 60’s and early70’s, the OPEC countries were able to hold back excess capacity after they organized which gave them the ability to influence world prices via output. Production capacity has not increased significantly in those countries since they nationalized the fields. They had no need to drill. Why waste money on a new well when you already have all the wells you need? Now we find ourselves in a differant situation. Now we are utilizing all of the world’s production capacity. Unfortunately, there is a lead time before you can start producing. When more capacity is needed, you must DRILL FOR IT. Our production today is based on PRICE EXPECTATIONS YEARS AGO! So, believe it or not, the world will have capacity come on-line in a couple years BASED ON THIS YEARS PRICES.

Frankly, not to be offensive, but I’ve forgotten more about petroleum economics than you’ve ever know. You are like a kid with flight sim trying to tell a 747 Capt. that he knows more about aviation. You are exposing yourself to the opinions of others and don’t have the intellectual tools to evaluate the relative merit of their argument

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Sustainable oil. The whole Oil from dinosaurs is bullcrap. It is a product of the earth. It goes too deep to be explained by organic materials. It is all the product of big business trying to keep their profits up. Now if you want to argue what it is going to do to the environment I could understand but peak oil is an urban legend created to steal money from your pockets.

 

[jetflyer]

Frankly, not to be offensive, but I’ve forgotten more about petroleum economics than you’ve ever know. You are like a kid with flight sim trying to tell a 747 Capt. that he knows more about aviation. You are exposing yourself to the opinions of others and don’t have the intellectual tools to evaluate the relative merit of their argument.

Wow. I didn't realize you were a Sky God.

Now that I know, I'll never question you again!

No reason to debate anymore what is true, we just need to listen to you.

If you say it's true it has to be, Oh Sky God T-Bagger...

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Why did U.S. oil production peak in the 70's? BECAUSE IT WAS CHEAPER TO DRILL ELSEWHERE. PEAK OIL IS AN ECONOMIC PHENOMENON!!

From BP: http://www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426
Is that why even with record drilling and record EOR last year U.S. Onshore oil production in the 48 contiguous states is down from 10 mbd in 1970 to less than 4 mbd today?

Peak Oil is a GEOLOGICAL PHENOMENON!!

Jet

 

[T-Bags]

Wow. I didn't realize you were a Sky God.

Now that I know, I'll never question you again!

No reason to debate anymore what is true, we just need to listen to you.

If you say it's true it has to be, Oh Sky God T-Bagger...

Jet

Which sounds an awfull lot like what a teenage flight sim jockey would say.

But you're probably right, a few weeks reading "theoildrum" between visits to the 911 conspiracy websites will leave you smarter than actually talking to the players and having friends at ARAMCO and most of the other major oil companies....

Just curious, but do you draw up plays during football season and send them to the coach of your favorite pro football team? If only he would listen, they'd won the superbowl...

"Peak Oil is a GEOLOGICAL PHENOMENON!!"

So if we had drilled in ANWR in 1968, is it possible in your myopic world that U.S. oil production would have peaked in 1973 instead? Were there other places we've since drilled in that we knew likely contained oil in 1972? Why didn't we drill then? BECAUSE OF ECONOMIC REASONS.

Tell you what though, go buy your cabin, stock it with all the statements from your commodities broker on all the inedible metals you think will be valuable when, in your world, we can no longer grow crops or drive any vehicles, and I'll either laugh at you when you've been proved completely wrong, or I'll come by and shoot you and take your paper to heat my house (since gold will be worthless.....you can't eat it or burn it and the bank won't return your calls when the global economy collapses into anarchy... )