Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[T-Bags]

With no competition and record profits WTF would you build more refineries?

Ask your republican friends how allowing buyouts/mergers and subsiquent closures of refineries have lowered prices?

Then ask your Dem buddies who was president and who's justice dept approved those mergers... I'll give you a hint. It starts with C and ends with linton.

The problem is idle refinery capcity, just like parked airplanes, doesn't make money. Why would any oil company keep idle capacity? We prob need to offer some incentive to oil companies to have excess capacity. I doubt it could happen for political reason.

Jetty, Your buddy Deffeyes told me in 2005 that oil production had already peaked....

 

[T-Bags]

• 1879 -- US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages.
• 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain. With 25 milliion barrels per year output, "Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast," Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124).
• 1901 -- Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market.
• 1906 -- Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried "not so much [about] cost as ... supply."
• 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. "The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste.... Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight... and comfort and endurance, to avert what ... will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation."
• 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. "In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent." (Pratt, p. 125. Emphasis added).
• 1925 -- US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased.
• 1928 -- US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book "We Fight for Oil" noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said.
• 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.
• 1930 -- Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918.
• 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.
• 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrelsof oil remain.
• 1950 -- American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply)
• 1956 -- M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.
• 1966 - 1977 -- 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: "These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.")
• 1978 -- Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range).
• 1980 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels
• 1993 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels
• 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels.

I guess since a couple government beaurocrats say it, it must be true....

 

[jetflyer]

What? You obviously don't realize what I'm saying.

The DOE and the Army study do NOT say when peak will be. Well the Army study says it is near and so does the DOE, but neither gives a date. They just say what is likely to happen if it happens in certain time periods.

Deffeyes, my buddy? You obviously know there are many, many figures in the peak oil predicting field. I like Jeremy Legget, Matthew Simmons, and Richard Heinberg. I couldn't even pick Deffeyes out in a criminal lineup and really haven't read anything of his.

One thing Deffeyes says may be true though. 2005 is still the peak of oil production for Crude Oil + Condensate and Crude Oil + NGL. Deffeyes said his peak estimate was for conventional crude+condensate only, not including "ALL LIQUIDS" so he's correct so far, since May 2005 was the peak for this measurement.

All Liquids counts natural gas liquids, condensate, refinery gains, ethanol, etc.

Crude oil is definitely in decline. The question is can it increase in the future with the four major oil fields of the world just passing their peak oil?

From http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2300 :

An update on the latest production numbers from the Energy Information Agency:

1. Monthly production records are unchanged:
   1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2006 (11 months) is 84.59 mbpd, up 0.01 mbpd from 2005.
   2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 81.40 mbpd, down 0.03 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
   3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 73.48 mbpd, down 0.09 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
   4. NGPL: the peak date remains February 2005 at 8.05 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 7.92 mbpd, up 0.06 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
2. No major revisions on the previous monthly estimates in this month release.
3. Weak growth continues: November 2006 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.41 mbpd compared to 74.11 mbpd one year ago.

So, so far Deffeyes is right, T-bags. Let's hope he becomes wrong. I don't think he will be though. Not from what I'm seeing in Mexico, Kuwait, and possibly Saudi Arabia......

If we are at peak oil, then what the Army Study says about resource wars for oil, will definitely be our future.


Jet

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,
I've finally realized what you're hung up on. Reserves. Reserves of conventional oil matter much more than reserves of unconventional oil.

Plus production is what really matters with peak oil, not reserves.

You also realize it has been proven that the Middle Eastern countries LIE about their reserves and that their reserves never go down even though they pump oil every day of every year.

Last year it was proven from internal Kuwaiti memos after their Burgan field passed its peak oil that KUWAIT did not have the around 99 BILLION barrels of oil reserves left, but more like 49 BILLION barrels. So in one day their reserves halved.

This is most likely the case in Saudi Arabia as well, where there has not been a significant oil find since the "Hawtah Trend" in the early 1990's. They still say they have around 260 billion barrels of oil, when almost everyone knows that number is around 100 billion.

Why the lie? In the 1980's an OPEC accounting rule required the countries to only produce a certain percentage of Barrels per day according to what the OPEC countries reserves were. Every OPEC country then showed significant increases in reserves over the next few years so they could pump at their maximum rates to maximize short term profit. Their reserves also never go down even as fields deplete.

Scalability problems of volume and time as well as low Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) are why unconventional oil(tar sands and oil shale) will have such a hard time filling the gap once conventional oil begins its massive decline which may have begun forever in 2005 like your buddy Deffeyes predicted.

The DOE Study, which you seem too lazy to read, but love to bash, talks in depth about the problems of scalability of unconventional crude sources and why they even with crash programs can not be scaled large enough fast enough to prevent a peak oil decline unless started 10-20 years before peak oil.

Do you understand what I'm telling you?

Oh and M. King Hubbert was dead on when he said 1970 as the peak oil for the United States. He nailed it.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,
I went and dug up old articles to show you that you can't trust the reserve numbers.

Why reserve numbers are wrong:

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=231520

.Brent rises $2 after Kuwait reserve report
Fri Jan 20, 2006 20:18 PM ET
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - London Brent crude futures rose $2 on Friday to its highest level since early September after a report that Kuwait's oil reserves are only half those officialy stated.
March Brent <LCOc1> rose $2.01 to $67.24 a barrel after industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) reported it had seen internal Kuwaiti records showing that Kuwait's reserves were about 48 billion barrels, compared to the officially stated 99 billion barrels.
Ahead of the report, Brent had already gained $1.50 on mounting concern about supply from Iran and Nigeria had already fuelled a rally of $1.50.

Kuwait supposedly had 10% of the world's oil. Now they have 5%! Wait till Saudi Arabia's oil reserve totals are questioned. We'll see more than a $2.00 rise in the price of oil.

I highly recommend reading this article below:
From http://www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426 which I consider to be the best description of the PEAK OIL problem:

Refer to the article for the figure they are referencing for this quote:

Before we leave that curve, though, I want to point out that a sudden jump of 300–400 billion barrels of oil in OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) reserves occurs in the late 1980s (see figure 3, left-hand graph, above). But there were no significant discoveries of oil in OPEC countries during that period. What happened instead is that OPEC changed its quota for how much each country could pump on the basis of what it claimed in reserves, and politicians discovered 400 billion barrels of oil without ever drilling a hole in the ground! This helps us to understand how undependable these numbers are for worldwide proven oil reserves.

Like the quote says, the Opec countries changed the method back in the late 1980's for determining how much oil each OPEC country could pump per day and all of the OPEC countries all of a sudden started lying to the world about how much oil they had.

ALL THE OPEC COUNTRIES DON'T HAVE AS MUCH OIL AS THEY CLAIM.

So go ahead T-Bags and subtract atleast the 51 Billion barrels of proven reserves lost from Kuwait and while you're at it another 250-350 Billion atleast for the rest of the lying OPEC countries that increased their numbers in the mid-80's to pump more oil because of the quota requirement enacted.

The other incentive OPEC countries have for lying is because they want the world to not switch to alternatives and to not worry about how much oil they have. They know if they can get us to hit peak oil like a brick wall that we'll be forced to use every single barrel they can produce till their fields run dry.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Oh and don't forget the Arab countries still CLAIM to have those same INFLATED reserve estimates after 20 years of pumping hundreds of billions of barrels. They NEVER subtract the oil they produce! This is a crime and the world deserves to know the truth especially since our economies are so dependent on these backward nations for their oil.

 

[jetflyer]

Peak Oil: An Update

After two decades of almost continuous growth, global oil production has been stagnant around 84 million barrels a day for the past two years.

This, of course, is exactly consistent with the peak oil hypothesis, which predicts that supply constraints will force up prices, destroying growth in demand.

It will be some years before we can tell for certain, but it is entirely possible that we're in the middle of peak oil right now. That's certainly consistent with the predictions of Kenneth Deffeyes, Colin Campbell, Matthew Simmons, and other geologists and oil industry analysts.

Just for you T-Bags ​

Ken is still correct with 2005 being peak for crude oil....with the declines yet to come.​

Jet​

 

[jetflyer]

double post deletedhttp://www.raisethehammer.org/blog.asp?id=515

 

[T-Bags]

Peak Oil: An Update

Just for you T-Bags ​

Ken is still correct with 2005 being peak for crude oil....with the declines yet to come.​

Jet​

When in 2005? As soon as he said june, it proved wrong, so he said November, but that was wrong, so then he said december....

BTW, production in June 06 was the highest ever. July 06 was third highest behind May 05. I guess you're wrong again....

 

[jetflyer]

To my knowledge Ken was talking about crude oil+condensate, not ALL liquids which includes biofuels and natural gas liquids.

From http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2300 :

An update on the latest production numbers from the Energy Information Agency:

1. Monthly production records are unchanged:
   1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2006 (11 months) is 84.59 mbpd, up 0.01 mbpd from 2005.
   2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 81.40 mbpd, down 0.03 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
   3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 73.48 mbpd, down 0.09 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
   4. NGPL: the peak date remains February 2005 at 8.05 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 7.92 mbpd, up 0.06 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
2. No major revisions on the previous monthly estimates in this month release.
3. Weak growth continues: November 2006 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.41 mbpd compared to 74.11 mbpd one year ago.

You also never commented on the information I showed you about the reserve estimates being manipulated by OPEC in the '80's and it being proven Kuwait lied to the world. Soon it will be shown Saudi did as well.

What did you think about the stuff I showed you?

Had a chance to read the DOE report yet?

I wish you would tone down your anger also. Can't we have a discussion to see what's right, instead of being egotistical like you are and trying to prove "Who's Right" all the time?

Jet