Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[T-Bags]

With no competition and record profits WTF would you build more refineries?

Ask your republican friends how allowing buyouts/mergers and subsiquent closures of refineries have lowered prices?

Then ask your Dem buddies who was president and who's justice dept approved those mergers... I'll give you a hint. It starts with C and ends with linton.

The problem is idle refinery capcity, just like parked airplanes, doesn't make money. Why would any oil company keep idle capacity? We prob need to offer some incentive to oil companies to have excess capacity. I doubt it could happen for political reason.

Jetty, Your buddy Deffeyes told me in 2005 that oil production had already peaked....

 

[T-Bags]

• 1879 -- US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages.
• 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain. With 25 milliion barrels per year output, "Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast," Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124).
• 1901 -- Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market.
• 1906 -- Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried "not so much [about] cost as ... supply."
• 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. "The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste.... Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight... and comfort and endurance, to avert what ... will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation."
• 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. "In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent." (Pratt, p. 125. Emphasis added).
• 1925 -- US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased.
• 1928 -- US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book "We Fight for Oil" noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said.
• 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.
• 1930 -- Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918.
• 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.
• 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrelsof oil remain.
• 1950 -- American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply)
• 1956 -- M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.
• 1966 - 1977 -- 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: "These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.")
• 1978 -- Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range).
• 1980 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels
• 1993 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels
• 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels.

I guess since a couple government beaurocrats say it, it must be true....

 

[jetflyer]

What? You obviously don't realize what I'm saying.

The DOE and the Army study do NOT say when peak will be. Well the Army study says it is near and so does the DOE, but neither gives a date. They just say what is likely to happen if it happens in certain time periods.

Deffeyes, my buddy? You obviously know there are many, many figures in the peak oil predicting field. I like Jeremy Legget, Matthew Simmons, and Richard Heinberg. I couldn't even pick Deffeyes out in a criminal lineup and really haven't read anything of his.

One thing Deffeyes says may be true though. 2005 is still the peak of oil production for Crude Oil + Condensate and Crude Oil + NGL. Deffeyes said his peak estimate was for conventional crude+condensate only, not including "ALL LIQUIDS" so he's correct so far, since May 2005 was the peak for this measurement.

All Liquids counts natural gas liquids, condensate, refinery gains, ethanol, etc.

Crude oil is definitely in decline. The question is can it increase in the future with the four major oil fields of the world just passing their peak oil?

From http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2300 :

An update on the latest production numbers from the Energy Information Agency:

1. Monthly production records are unchanged:
   1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2006 (11 months) is 84.59 mbpd, up 0.01 mbpd from 2005.
   2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 81.40 mbpd, down 0.03 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
   3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 73.48 mbpd, down 0.09 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
   4. NGPL: the peak date remains February 2005 at 8.05 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 7.92 mbpd, up 0.06 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
2. No major revisions on the previous monthly estimates in this month release.
3. Weak growth continues: November 2006 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.41 mbpd compared to 74.11 mbpd one year ago.

So, so far Deffeyes is right, T-bags. Let's hope he becomes wrong. I don't think he will be though. Not from what I'm seeing in Mexico, Kuwait, and possibly Saudi Arabia......

If we are at peak oil, then what the Army Study says about resource wars for oil, will definitely be our future.


Jet

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,
I've finally realized what you're hung up on. Reserves. Reserves of conventional oil matter much more than reserves of unconventional oil.

Plus production is what really matters with peak oil, not reserves.

You also realize it has been proven that the Middle Eastern countries LIE about their reserves and that their reserves never go down even though they pump oil every day of every year.

Last year it was proven from internal Kuwaiti memos after their Burgan field passed its peak oil that KUWAIT did not have the around 99 BILLION barrels of oil reserves left, but more like 49 BILLION barrels. So in one day their reserves halved.

This is most likely the case in Saudi Arabia as well, where there has not been a significant oil find since the "Hawtah Trend" in the early 1990's. They still say they have around 260 billion barrels of oil, when almost everyone knows that number is around 100 billion.

Why the lie? In the 1980's an OPEC accounting rule required the countries to only produce a certain percentage of Barrels per day according to what the OPEC countries reserves were. Every OPEC country then showed significant increases in reserves over the next few years so they could pump at their maximum rates to maximize short term profit. Their reserves also never go down even as fields deplete.

Scalability problems of volume and time as well as low Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) are why unconventional oil(tar sands and oil shale) will have such a hard time filling the gap once conventional oil begins its massive decline which may have begun forever in 2005 like your buddy Deffeyes predicted.

The DOE Study, which you seem too lazy to read, but love to bash, talks in depth about the problems of scalability of unconventional crude sources and why they even with crash programs can not be scaled large enough fast enough to prevent a peak oil decline unless started 10-20 years before peak oil.

Do you understand what I'm telling you?

Oh and M. King Hubbert was dead on when he said 1970 as the peak oil for the United States. He nailed it.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags,
I went and dug up old articles to show you that you can't trust the reserve numbers.

Why reserve numbers are wrong:

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=231520

.Brent rises $2 after Kuwait reserve report
Fri Jan 20, 2006 20:18 PM ET
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - London Brent crude futures rose $2 on Friday to its highest level since early September after a report that Kuwait's oil reserves are only half those officialy stated.
March Brent <LCOc1> rose $2.01 to $67.24 a barrel after industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) reported it had seen internal Kuwaiti records showing that Kuwait's reserves were about 48 billion barrels, compared to the officially stated 99 billion barrels.
Ahead of the report, Brent had already gained $1.50 on mounting concern about supply from Iran and Nigeria had already fuelled a rally of $1.50.

Kuwait supposedly had 10% of the world's oil. Now they have 5%! Wait till Saudi Arabia's oil reserve totals are questioned. We'll see more than a $2.00 rise in the price of oil.

I highly recommend reading this article below:
From http://www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426 which I consider to be the best description of the PEAK OIL problem:

Refer to the article for the figure they are referencing for this quote:

Before we leave that curve, though, I want to point out that a sudden jump of 300–400 billion barrels of oil in OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) reserves occurs in the late 1980s (see figure 3, left-hand graph, above). But there were no significant discoveries of oil in OPEC countries during that period. What happened instead is that OPEC changed its quota for how much each country could pump on the basis of what it claimed in reserves, and politicians discovered 400 billion barrels of oil without ever drilling a hole in the ground! This helps us to understand how undependable these numbers are for worldwide proven oil reserves.

Like the quote says, the Opec countries changed the method back in the late 1980's for determining how much oil each OPEC country could pump per day and all of the OPEC countries all of a sudden started lying to the world about how much oil they had.

ALL THE OPEC COUNTRIES DON'T HAVE AS MUCH OIL AS THEY CLAIM.

So go ahead T-Bags and subtract atleast the 51 Billion barrels of proven reserves lost from Kuwait and while you're at it another 250-350 Billion atleast for the rest of the lying OPEC countries that increased their numbers in the mid-80's to pump more oil because of the quota requirement enacted.

The other incentive OPEC countries have for lying is because they want the world to not switch to alternatives and to not worry about how much oil they have. They know if they can get us to hit peak oil like a brick wall that we'll be forced to use every single barrel they can produce till their fields run dry.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Oh and don't forget the Arab countries still CLAIM to have those same INFLATED reserve estimates after 20 years of pumping hundreds of billions of barrels. They NEVER subtract the oil they produce! This is a crime and the world deserves to know the truth especially since our economies are so dependent on these backward nations for their oil.

 

[jetflyer]

Peak Oil: An Update

After two decades of almost continuous growth, global oil production has been stagnant around 84 million barrels a day for the past two years.

This, of course, is exactly consistent with the peak oil hypothesis, which predicts that supply constraints will force up prices, destroying growth in demand.

It will be some years before we can tell for certain, but it is entirely possible that we're in the middle of peak oil right now. That's certainly consistent with the predictions of Kenneth Deffeyes, Colin Campbell, Matthew Simmons, and other geologists and oil industry analysts.

Just for you T-Bags ​

Ken is still correct with 2005 being peak for crude oil....with the declines yet to come.​

Jet​

 

[jetflyer]

double post deletedhttp://www.raisethehammer.org/blog.asp?id=515

 

[T-Bags]

Peak Oil: An Update

Just for you T-Bags ​

Ken is still correct with 2005 being peak for crude oil....with the declines yet to come.​

Jet​

When in 2005? As soon as he said june, it proved wrong, so he said November, but that was wrong, so then he said december....

BTW, production in June 06 was the highest ever. July 06 was third highest behind May 05. I guess you're wrong again....

 

[jetflyer]

To my knowledge Ken was talking about crude oil+condensate, not ALL liquids which includes biofuels and natural gas liquids.

From http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2300 :

An update on the latest production numbers from the Energy Information Agency:

1. Monthly production records are unchanged:
   1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2006 (11 months) is 84.59 mbpd, up 0.01 mbpd from 2005.
   2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 81.40 mbpd, down 0.03 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
   3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 73.48 mbpd, down 0.09 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
   4. NGPL: the peak date remains February 2005 at 8.05 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 7.92 mbpd, up 0.06 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
2. No major revisions on the previous monthly estimates in this month release.
3. Weak growth continues: November 2006 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.41 mbpd compared to 74.11 mbpd one year ago.

You also never commented on the information I showed you about the reserve estimates being manipulated by OPEC in the '80's and it being proven Kuwait lied to the world. Soon it will be shown Saudi did as well.

What did you think about the stuff I showed you?

Had a chance to read the DOE report yet?

I wish you would tone down your anger also. Can't we have a discussion to see what's right, instead of being egotistical like you are and trying to prove "Who's Right" all the time?

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Ok T-Bags,

You made me wonder. I went and read some things Deffeyes wrote through internet searches and he didn't specify.

Still conventional oil peaked in 2005 and this is what a lot of peak oil predictors talk about.

Plus if it was "All Liquids" he was talking about then it was July 2006, and it's not bad being off by 9 months.

The good 'ole light sweet crude has definitely peaked. This is the easily refined good stuff that is very hard to replace with even heavy sour, let alone oil shale, tar sands, or even coal to oil.

Jet

 

[T-Bags]

Ok T-Bags,

You made me wonder. I went and read some things Deffeyes wrote through internet searches and he didn't specify.

Still conventional oil peaked in 2005 and this is what a lot of peak oil predictors talk about.

Plus if it was "All Liquids" he was talking about then it was July 2006, and it's not bad being off by 9 months.

The good 'ole light sweet crude has definitely peaked. This is the easily refined good stuff that is very hard to replace with even heavy sour, let alone oil shale, tar sands, or even coal to oil.

Jet

Jetty,
Everybody doesn't get all their info from conspiracy websites. When I say Kenny "told me" that oil production had already peaked, I MEAN HE TOLD ME. I've met him, I've listened to one of his presentations and I've had a one on one converation with him. As with most far left conspiracy wackjobs, he takes some benign infor and spins it into a web that supports his world view. An Example of this is what Algore did to support his silly powerpoint slideshow. When NO major hurricanes hit the US last year, he includes some BS that a really big one hit China. Strange sh1t happens EVERY DAY. It's easy to take random events and pretend they make your case. They don't. It's like calling up one of the hillbillys that won powerball and making them your investment broker. After all, they turned $1 into $300 million. IT WAS A RANDOM EVENT.

Now to Kennyboy. He believes that you and I will have to build basemants under our homes so we can store fruit thru the winter since we're running out of oil and won't be able to fly airplanes anymore. So how does that mix with facts? I showed you where the stuff you put into your TANK went UP. You reply that it didn't come out of the ground in a certain pretty color that goes well with your sweater. WTFC? My point is you WILL have fuel for your jet. You WILL have fuel for your Hummer. I could care less if a certain field in a cerain country goes dry.

If that weren't enough,consider that in 2001 and 2002, annual oil production had already peaked (in 2000). Then oil production went up SUBSTANTIALLY. It will happen again.

 

[acarpe3448]

Jet flyer! One of your posts states that the USA has .60 billion people. Last time I checked the USA population was around .3 billion population! This makes me question the validity of your other statistical information! As far as the price of oil going up, it is making my roylaty checks bigger and bigger every month! What a great business to be in! I think part of this rise in oil prices has to dowith the fact that China is increasing its SPR!

 

[jetflyer]

Acarpe,
Did you find something that I finally posted wrong at 3:00 AM, got excited like a school girl getting a puppy, and had to see if you could nail me on it, to ruin my credibility on everything? Did you read about three posts later when it was discussed that I got that wrong.


T-Bags,

The 2000-2001 dropoff in oil production was a VOLUNTARY dropoff by oil producers, because of slowing economies from the stock market crashes and then the 9/11 attacks.

The plateau in production now is scary as hell because it is associated with record oil prices and the world can't increase production. The spare capacity is gone.

Now it looks like Saudi Arabia is in decline because of its Ghawar field which is over half their production crashing and you don't care!!!???

Why are you so complacent??

It's not only conspiracy theorists warning of this. That's what I'm pointing out. These people are also warning the world:
--What about Matthew Simmons, Cheney friend and advisor to him for the Energy Policy Meetings.
--T. Boone Pickens, billionaire and oil industry insider.
--George Soros, billionaire investor
--Jeremy Legett, industry insider
--Texas Billionaire Rainwater
--U.S. Department of Energy study which has been swept under the rug.
--U.S. Army Corp of Engineer study which has been swept under the rug.
--Chevron says 33 out of 48 major countries have passed their peak oil.
--Too many other reputable people including Professors, heads of oil companies, etc.

Ok, you hate Deffeyes. He's an idiot. Who cares. He's the only bit of evidence you bring up that there will NEVER be a peak. Get over it and get some more evidence. Besides he may not have been wrong by much and we may be past peak now.

You say you don't care what's happening in the oil fields of the world. You just don't care, or are you too lazy to investigate what effects Ghawar going into decline would mean to the world?

One day you'll care.....

I hope to God our government leaders aren't like YOU.

I hope they are not just living on wishful thinking.

That study on Peak Oil by the DOE and the Army Corp of Engineers were both swept under the rug. The DOE study even disappeared off the internet for three months when it first came out because its results were so startling. Then Congressman Roscoe Bartlett and others encouraged it be shown and it was shown again finally.

These have been kept out of the media because of they severely hurt our National Security interests. Peak Oil is kept from the masses because it hurts our national security interests. The "War on Terror" has to look like it is solely for noble interests, when reality is there are many alterior motives....


The report that Rep. Roscoe Bartlett refers to about Peak Oil:

Quotes From the Army Corp of Engineers:
Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations

The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years. As worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will cause even more significant price increases and security risks. One can only speculate at the outcome from this scenario as world petroleum production declines.

Energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports.

Oil shale and tar sands energy ROI is negative, significant environmental impact.

Currently, non-OPEC nations have been at maximum production and will most likely peak as predicted. Figure 2 shows the projected worldwide oil production (based on analyses from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas [ASPO]). Note that these are considered pessimistic projections. Others predict far higher production for the future, but discoveries to date have not born out the predictions of the optimists.

...the Army must immediately begin to consider the short- and long-term issues involved in developing enduring energy policies and solutions for its military installations. To sustain its mission and ensure its capability to project and support the forces, the Army must insulate itself from the economic and logistical energy-related problems coming in the near to mid future.

Demand now exceeds production and we are seeing that effect on prices. After the peak is reached, geopolitics and market economics will result in significant price increases above what we have seen to date. Security risks will also rise. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.

Oil wars will be our future. We have to win. Hopefully we will so you, T-Bags, won't have to store that fruit in your basement!

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Texas Billionaire Rainwater is scared out of his mind about Peak Oil!!

From Fortune Magazine
The Rainwater Prophecy
by Oliver Ryan

......The next blowup, however, looms so large that it scares and confuses him. For the past few months he's been holed up in hard-core research mode—reading books, academic studies, and, yes, blogs. Every morning he rises before dawn at one of his houses in Texas or South Carolina or California (he actually owns a piece of Pebble Beach Resorts) and spends four or five hours reading sites like LifeAftertheOilCrash.net or DieOff.org, obsessively following links and sifting through data. How worried is he? He has some $500 million of his $2.5 billion fortune in cash, more than ever before. "I'm long oil and I'm liquid," he says. "I've put myself in a position that if the end of the world came tomorrow I'd kind of be prepared." He's also ready to move fast if he spots an opening.

His instincts tell him that another enormous moneymaking opportunity is about to present itself, what he calls a "slow pitch down the middle." But, at 61, wealthier and happier than ever before, Rainwater finds himself reacting differently this time. He's focused more on staying rich than on getting richer. But there's something else too: a sort of billionaire-style civic duty he feels to get a conversation started.

Why couldn't energy prices skyrocket, with grave repercussions, not just economic but political? As industry analysts debate whether the world's oil production is destined to decline, the prospect makes him itchy. "This is a nonrecurring event," he says. "The 100-year flood in Houston real estate was one, the ability to buy oil and gas really cheap was another, and now there's the opportunity to do something based on a shortage of natural resources.

Can you make money? Well, yeah. One way is to just stay long domestic oil. But there may be something more important than making money. This is the first scenario I've seen where I question the survivability of mankind.

I don't want the world to wake up one day and say, 'How come some doofus billionaire in Texas made all this money by being aware of this, and why didn't someone tell us?'"Rainwater sides with the imminent peak crowd, and can rattle off facts to back up his argument. "In 1988 there were 15 million barrels a day of shut-in production"—meaning surplus that could be tapped—"and the world was using about 55 million barrels of oil. Today the world is using over 80 million, and there's no shut-in production left. We've used it up, through the combination of depletion and growth." In other words, the spigot can't be opened any wider.

What concerns him most is the conflict that he thinks an oil shortage will precipitate. What happens when people get blindsided by prices rocketing past any level they have contemplated—especially when you factor in other challenges America faces? "We've got a lot of things going on simultaneously," he says. "The world as we know it is unwinding with respect to Social Security, pensions, Medicare. We're going to have dramatically increased taxes in the U.S.

I believe we're going into a world where there's going to be more hostility. More people are going to be asking, 'Why did God do this to us?' Whatever God they worship. Alfred Sloan said it a long time ago at General Motors, that we're giving these things during good times. What happens in bad times? We're going to have to take them back, and then everybody will riot.' And he's right." . . . He pauses.

"I just want people to look out. 'Cause it could be bad."

Peak oil really is as scary as Rainwater says.

This man, with his power, has resources we can't imagine. If he has concluded with his knowledge, like many other billionaires that the peak is now and he's willing to put his credibility on the line, you should research more as well...........

The evidence is everywhere.

There are no major sources left to tap except oil sands and shale, or Alaskan oil which will provide less than 1% of the world's oil when tapped 8-10 years from now. The oil sands and oil shale can't be scaled up large enough fast enough to prevent the declines. The oil sands are supposed to at a crash project pace go from 1 mbd to 3.5 mbd in 10 years! The numbers are astounding.

We know what is happening in the oil fields TODAY and it's not pretty.

The four major oil fields of the world just went past their peak oil in the last year or two and they were over 10% of the world's production.

It's time for the U.S. to get serious about alternatives to oil, and keep funding the military, cause we're gonna need it!

Our world is about to change forever and because the media won't report on it for national security reasons many will be unprepared especially financially.

If yesterday's crash doesn't show everyone, put some money in energy mutual funds and precious metal mutual funds to protect yourself and in my opinion profit enormously.
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Concerned Individuals and Groups we SHOULD listen to about Peak Oil including an Ex-President of the United States from www.energybulletin.net:

---Oil Industry analysts like PFC Energy; Groppe Long & Littell; and Petrie Parkman & Co. Last fall, Tom Petrie said he expected peak oil by around 2010 and that he would be “shocked” if world oil production didn’t peak by 2015. In PFC Energy’s 2004 presentation on peak oil, they show world oil production peaking in the 2014 time frame; their 2006 study, to be presented at the ASPO-USA conference next month, likely points to a slightly earlier date. Henry Groppe sees world petroleum liquids production peaking by 2010.

---T. Boone Pickens, oil industry entrepreneur with a background in geology, has stated several times that peak oil may have already arrived.

---The U.S. DOE Hirsch Report: with funding from the National Energy Technology Laboratory, Robert L. Hirsch and Roger Bezdek were lead authors of a 70+-page report entitled “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management.” The authors’ key concern: “Dealing with world oil production peaking will be extremely complex, involve literally trillions of dollars and require many years of intense effort.” Esser’s statement trivializes their report.

---U.S. Congressmen Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) and Tom Udall (D-NM) sound seriously concerned about peak oil, have been speaking out and writing about the issue, and have enlisted over a dozen colleagues to join them in the House Peak Oil Caucus.

---Former President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore both recently referenced peak oil. First in June, Gore spent a minute talking it up on CNN’s Larry King Live. Then in early July, Clinton—in an interview with Atlantic Monthly—gave substantial credence to the peak oil concept. He also wondered why he had never received a peak oil briefing, given its strategic importance.

---US cities large and small, from San Francisco and Portland (OR) to Willets and Sebastopol (CA), are leading the way in incorporating the eventual reality of peak oil in their long-term municipal planning processes.

---Senior geologists like author Walter Youngquist (OR), Craig Hatfield (OH), Joe Riva (MD), and Jeffrey Brown (TX) have drawn attention to issues like long-term depletion, the limits to growth by unconventional oil sources, the problems with declining net-energy return, etc.

---PhD academics like Dr. Al Bartlett (University of Colorado-Boulder) plus Robert Kaufmann and Cutler Cleveland (Boston University) have for at least two decades been pointing to upcoming problems associated with peak oil.

---Financial analyst Jeffery Rubin—chief economist for the respected CIBC World Markets—foresees a peaking in world oil production between now and the end of the decade.

---Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management, has over $1 billion of his firm’s assets invested in areas that will benefit from peak oil.

---Matt Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co Int’l and author of “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy,” speaks more frequently about the peak oil story than any other respected executive in the country.

---James Mckenzie, in his work for World Resources Institute, published a study in 1996 showing a peaking in world oil production in 2014 (plus or minus about five years, given three different scenarios).

---Editorials and features in newspapers and major magazine cover the peak oil story. Bloomberg Markets devoted eight pages to this story in their September issue.

---Richard Rainwater, a Texas-based billionaire investor, made piles of money by foreseeing, back in the mid-1990's, that oil prices were eventually headed strongly up due to long-term limited production vs. demand. Now he worries in the pages of Fortune magazine about the potential social costs and consequences that he believes peak oil could precipitate.

---Sadad al Husseini, Saudi Arabia's National Oil Companies' former head of exploration and production, wrote last fall that world oil production would peak and plateau by 2015, at between 90 to 95 million barrels a day.

---French oil firm Total’s CEO Thierry Desmarest has broken ranks with other CEO’s of major oil companies by forecasting a 2020 peaking for world oil production. (From 1996 – 2000, several BP players forecast a 2010 peak; since 2000 they no longer mention a peak.)

---Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, uses an analytical technique similar to that of CERA—following production trends and projections vs. following stated reserves. He sees a peaking in world oil production around 2010-2011.

---Pang Xiongqi, professor at China’s University of Petroleum in Beijing, expects Chinese production to peak in 2009 and world oil production to top out in 2012.

---The Oil Drum, perhaps the most rigorous website covering the peak oil story, includes a host of writers and researchers who research and write timely commentaries.

---ASPO-USA foresees a peak between now and 2015. We believe there are too many variables, especially growing non-geologic factors, to forecast a date. However, given the Hirsh Report’s warning about lag time for mitigating actions, we’re close enough to peaking that trying to pick a precise date is irrelevant.


Those include some very respectable people. Anyone think all these people are all nuts or delusional?

Why isn't their message getting out? It is too damaging.

Why isn't Bush telling the American People this problem is in our future? Maybe because it will hurt our chances of obtaining our future gas stations: Iraq and Iran?


Jet

 

[jetflyer]

The Department of Energy Report on Peak Oil analyzed scalability of crash programs of all alternatives to oil initiated at the same time in an effort to overcome peak oil and they came up with startling conclusions.

They discuss alternatives one by one in intense detail including Alaskan oil, oil shale, tar sands, ethanol, electric cars, coal to oil, etc.

I know everyone is busy and doesn't have time to read. So I've went ahead and grabbed some attention grabber quotes from the U.S. govt. DOE study.

From the Department of Energy Report on Peak Oil:
"PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT" Click here for the report: http://www.bartlett.house.gov/uploadedfiles/the_hirsch_report.pdf
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader Roger Bezdek, MISI Robert Wendling, MISI

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

.The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past energy crisis experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis.

.Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program
action would leave the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more
than two decades.


Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking
helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade
after the time that oil would have peaked.

Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to
offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast
period.

The obvious conclusion from this analysis is that with adequate, timely
mitigation, the economic costs to the world can be minimized. If mitigation
were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved
through massive demand destruction (shortages), which would translate to
significant economic hardship.

There will be no quick fixes. Even crash programs will require more than a
decade to yield substantial relief.

.The development of the US economy and lifestyle has been fundamentally shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Oil scarcity and several-fold oil price increases due to world oil production peaking could have dramatic impacts ... the economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale.

MARKET FORCES WON'T FIX THIS PROBLEM:

.Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. But the process will not be easy. Expediency may require major changes to ... lengthy environmental reviews and lengthy public involvement.

.Despite arguments from the major oil companies and producer nations new finds of oil are not replacing oil consumed each year. Despite the advances in technology reserves are becoming increasingly difficult to replace.

....world moving from a long period in which reserves additions were much greater than consumption, to an era in which annual additions are falling increasingly short of annual consumption. This is but one of a number of trends that suggest the world is fast approaching the inevitable peaking of conventional world oil production.

He's talking about recessions, depressions and shortages:

.If mitigation were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction.

Sound like today's events?:

.As world oil peaking is approached, excess production capacity ... will disappear, so that even minor supply disruptions will cause increased price volatility as traders, speculators, and other market participants react to supply/demand events

.Oil could become the price setter in the broader energy market, in which case other energy prices could well become increasingly volatile and unpredictable.

.The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.

Now do you understand why after the Project Manager Robert Hirsh spoke to Congress about his findings, this study was swept under the rug. It has never received any mention in the mainstream media, because the conclusions are so startling.

Watch the Project Manager of the DOE REPORT, Robert Hirsh in an interview with ABC Australia here: http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/

Ask yourself why this is not getting more serious analysis by the U.S. press...

What is Bush doing to prevent these horrible effects? We need to ask a lot of questions of our politicians and demand things be done.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Buy your energy mutual funds and precious metal mutual funds now.

War with Iran is coming soon, plus peak oil is probably here.

Also consider this:
The pullback in oil prices has done what it's supposed to do and caused an increase in demand. Demand is 4% higher than last year and U.S. crude inventories are 30 million barrels lower than this time last year and keep going lower. Meanwhile supply is a big question mark and Saudi Arabia is probably well past their peak production.

Supply/Demand is about to cause the oil price to go up even before Iran happens.

Also did anyone read what I posted above that Rainwater was saying?:
This billionaire says he's long oil and he's liquid.
Also referring to peak oil: "His instincts tell him that another enormous moneymaking opportunity is about to present itself, what he calls a "slow pitch down the middle."

Don't blame yourself if you miss this slow pitch down the middle! Just to diversify alone you should stick some money in energy and precious metals, but if peak oil is here stock markets are going to crash when it becomes evident.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

T-Bags
Where are you? I miss you challenging me....

I get bored very quickly in these one-sided conversations.

I hope you learned something in our back and forth discussions.

Did you or anyone watch Robert Hirsch, Project Leader of the DOE Study, in the interview with ABC Australia here??: http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/

I find this to be the most frightening, urgent, and challenging obstacle to human existence on this planet.

Does anyone even find any of this as big of a deal as I do? Am I worrying for nothing? Someone make fun of me or something.

Jet

 

[Porky]

Take a deep breath, now relax for a bit. Feel better.