TWA Dude
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Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon
- Thread starter atpcliff
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- Watchers 58
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AA717driver
A simpler time...
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Oh, yeah? Well, if you're so freakin' smart, why aren't you working for ExxonMobil...?
TCP.S.--It can't be 'cause you have too much self-respect. I know better.
SkiFishFly
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Mud Eagle
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As soon as an alternative energy source is cheaper than (and as plentiful as) petroleum, then oil will stop being so important. It's all about $.
jetflyer
Concerned Citizen
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Why do I even bother showing studies like the ones from the DOE and Army Corp of Engineers which say your opinion is completely wrong?
DOE Study on Peak Oil
Army Corp of Engineers study on Peak Oil
I guess I need more reputable sources?
The U.S. govt. GAO is coming out with a study pushed forward by the Peak Oil committe in Congress due out soon. Maybe people will listen to them?
Jet
So you get a couple studies written by a few idiots with OPINIONS and now it's fact? Oh wait, I forgot, you're the deep thinker that thinks 911 was some kind of CIA/Government plot to make Haliburton money. GMAFB. Let's go over this again. The US uses approx 25% of world oil production. About half of world oil production is used by people who subsist on less than half the annual income an averge U.S. family lives on. If oil prices double, who cuts back first? Us or little Hadji? Which economy is hurt the most? Wait, before you answer that, please do a little research. Please try to find some info on the energy intensity of a $ of GDP for several differant countries, then get back to us....
jetflyer
Concerned Citizen
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T-Bags,
Great points. You're exactly right. A great book for you to read to understand the $ of GDP produced per barrel of oil per country and how countries are affected is "1,000 barrels per second" by Peter Tertzakian. America being a rich country will easily be able to hang on longer than poorer countries.
The US has 0.60 billion people and consumes 28 barrels per person per year - India and China have 2.4 billion people(+-) and consume less than 1.7 barrels per person per year.
Even despite the facts above the U.S. can produce more increase GDP more with less oil than it takes India and China.
The U.S. still requires increasing oil consumption to increase GDP though.
Just like in the 1970's we will again be affected from this coming energy crunch..
Tertzakian analyses the 1970's oil embargoes which discuss how the world only had a cutback of 5% of its oil but oil prices went up by over 10 times.
His book is the best analysis I've seen of the impacts on GDP of increasing oil costs and he projects what peak oil will do to the economy.
He goes on to show how many countries decreased their reliance on oil during the 1970's oil crunch. The U.S. did a lot worse job than many countries. South Korea was a glowing example of how to reduce energy dependence and can increase GDP without increasing oil consumption. They did this through heavily taxing their fossil fuel usage and they've become more energy independent.
This coming energy crisis will cause about a 3-5% decrease in oil availability year over year, unlike in the 1970's where it was a 5% decrease total. This energy crisis will be much more difficult to overcome because the available oil will continue to decrease year over year.
Plus something I'm sure you haven't thought of is the Export Land Model produced by Jeffrey Brown. Let me explain:
Exporters of oil like Mexico are increasing their internal demand for oil while their production is decreasing. Mexico's exports at the end of last year went down by 500,000 barrels.
Think of Saudi:
Their production is down from 9.5 mbd to 8.7 mbd. Their internal consumption is increasing. So instead of their exports going down by .8 mbd they've gone down by even more because of internal consumption increases.
The importers are going to get the short end of the stick.....
Jet
Great points. You're exactly right. A great book for you to read to understand the $ of GDP produced per barrel of oil per country and how countries are affected is "1,000 barrels per second" by Peter Tertzakian. America being a rich country will easily be able to hang on longer than poorer countries.
The US has 0.60 billion people and consumes 28 barrels per person per year - India and China have 2.4 billion people(+-) and consume less than 1.7 barrels per person per year.
Even despite the facts above the U.S. can produce more increase GDP more with less oil than it takes India and China.
The U.S. still requires increasing oil consumption to increase GDP though.
Just like in the 1970's we will again be affected from this coming energy crunch..
Tertzakian analyses the 1970's oil embargoes which discuss how the world only had a cutback of 5% of its oil but oil prices went up by over 10 times.
His book is the best analysis I've seen of the impacts on GDP of increasing oil costs and he projects what peak oil will do to the economy.
He goes on to show how many countries decreased their reliance on oil during the 1970's oil crunch. The U.S. did a lot worse job than many countries. South Korea was a glowing example of how to reduce energy dependence and can increase GDP without increasing oil consumption. They did this through heavily taxing their fossil fuel usage and they've become more energy independent.
This coming energy crisis will cause about a 3-5% decrease in oil availability year over year, unlike in the 1970's where it was a 5% decrease total. This energy crisis will be much more difficult to overcome because the available oil will continue to decrease year over year.
Plus something I'm sure you haven't thought of is the Export Land Model produced by Jeffrey Brown. Let me explain:
Exporters of oil like Mexico are increasing their internal demand for oil while their production is decreasing. Mexico's exports at the end of last year went down by 500,000 barrels.
Think of Saudi:
Their production is down from 9.5 mbd to 8.7 mbd. Their internal consumption is increasing. So instead of their exports going down by .8 mbd they've gone down by even more because of internal consumption increases.
The importers are going to get the short end of the stick.....
Jet
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jetflyer
Concerned Citizen
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So you get a couple studies written by a few idiots with OPINIONS and now it's fact?
Well no, the people on the U.S. Government Department of Energy study group were not idiots I'm sure.
Their team analyzed crash programs from every imaginable replacement to easily flowing crude oil, including the oil sands, oil shale, ethanol, coal to oil, etc. and found that if these alternatives were not moved towards 10 years before peak oil with crash programs overall transportation fuels would still decline dramatically causing pain on economies requiring growing energy availability.
We need a ten year head start with trillions invested at a rapid rate.
The speed of scalability is the problem.
After you read the DOE study, you still thought the experts were idiots? I thought they were very articulate and intelligent.
Maybe you should read your government's study again?
United States Department of Energy Study on the effects on the economy from Peak oil if it were to occur today, in 10 years, or 20 years.
After you read it the second time, tell me if you still think they're idiots. Ok? Other groups have come up with similar findings but this is from our government so I thought their study would be reputable.
Thank you Tbags,
Jet
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jetflyer
Concerned Citizen
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- Mar 8, 2002
- Posts
- 2,040
From Peter Tertzakian's book, "1,000 Barrels Per Second, The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges facing an Energy Dependent World."
He shows how dependent different countries are to rising oil consumption on their GDP through a "oil dependency factor" analysis.
The United States, China, and a whole host of industrializing countries have a very high positive relationship between rising GDP and oil demand increases.
Tertzakian shows that China and India have the highest oil demand increase need to produce an addition $ of GDP. Their need is twice as high as the U.S.
France is almost flat, needing just barely any additional oil to increase GDP.
These countries can increase GDP with declining oil consumption:
South Korea
Germany
Russia
Italy
United Kingdom
Several of these countries consume less oil now than they did during the 1970's oil embargoes. The U.S. on the other hand has increased its oil needs steadily upwards from 15 mbd in 1983 up to 21 mbd today.
We need about 1 additional mbd to increase our GDP by half a $trillion dollars.
China and India's dependency is twice as high.
This is one reason why China and the U.S. will probably enter into resource wars for oil in the future.
The bottom line is our economy can not grow without additional barrels of oil. We're addicted and very dependent on growing supplies of oil year over year. We can not handle declining oil without experiencing an economic contraction.
T-Bags since you know so much about this already you would probably find Tertzakian's book really interesting. You may learn a little more...
See ya!
Jet
He shows how dependent different countries are to rising oil consumption on their GDP through a "oil dependency factor" analysis.
The United States, China, and a whole host of industrializing countries have a very high positive relationship between rising GDP and oil demand increases.
Tertzakian shows that China and India have the highest oil demand increase need to produce an addition $ of GDP. Their need is twice as high as the U.S.
France is almost flat, needing just barely any additional oil to increase GDP.
These countries can increase GDP with declining oil consumption:
South Korea
Germany
Russia
Italy
United Kingdom
Several of these countries consume less oil now than they did during the 1970's oil embargoes. The U.S. on the other hand has increased its oil needs steadily upwards from 15 mbd in 1983 up to 21 mbd today.
We need about 1 additional mbd to increase our GDP by half a $trillion dollars.
China and India's dependency is twice as high.
This is one reason why China and the U.S. will probably enter into resource wars for oil in the future.
The bottom line is our economy can not grow without additional barrels of oil. We're addicted and very dependent on growing supplies of oil year over year. We can not handle declining oil without experiencing an economic contraction.
T-Bags since you know so much about this already you would probably find Tertzakian's book really interesting. You may learn a little more...
See ya!
Jet
Last edited:
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