Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[Secret Squirrel]

Not one of those posts said peak oil is here. The EIA does not expect peak oil until the middle to end of this century. This is the agency that researches and speaks for the government on energy issues. But this is based on todays technology which is the huge variable. There are so many other viable technologies which could completely change the time line and they state so. You are an alarmist and are cherry picking quotes from sites or looking at the black helicopter sites for your information. Take a deep breath, step back from the computer, and go fill up you SUV to drive to your flying job so you can pay for your winter gas bill.

 

[JetFumes]

Hey Jet, if your so concerned about peak oil, why continue flying. Time to get a new career I think.

 

[jetflyer]

The whole article is below so I don't get accused of anything. T. Boone thinks we've passed peak oil.

Oct. 19, 2007, 5:43PM
Boone Pickens says oil on its way to $100 a barrel

By JOHN PORRETTO AP Business Writer
© 2007 The Associated Press

HOUSTON — Legendary Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens sees the price of oil hitting $100 a barrel perhaps as soon as the fourth quarter but certainly sometime next year, a consequence of daily global oil production reaching its peak.

The 79-year-old former wildcatter, who now heads the Dallas-based hedge fund BP Capital Management LP, said Friday afternoon he has no doubt worldwide demand has topped the current global output of roughly 85 million barrels a day. As such, he said, prices have nowhere to go but up.

"I think you'll reach $100 (a barrel) before you go back to $80," Pickens said before speaking at a gathering of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas at a downtown hotel. "It could happen in the fourth quarter, but you'll see it within a year."

Crude prices have climbed 28 percent since late August, passing $90 a barrel for the first time in overnight trading Thursday. Light, sweet crude for November delivery eventually fell 87 cents to settle at $88.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Pickens is credited with a history of prescient predictions about the direction of oil markets, and his bets have paid off handsomely. BP Capital, which focuses on energy-related investments, began a decade ago with $125 million and now manages about $4.5 billion.

Still, many industry and government analysts are far less pessimistic about the prospects for the global oil supply than the billionaire Pickens. Experts disagree about when daily oil output will reach its maximum level — or whether it has done so already. The federal Government Accountability Office reported in March that most studies have found oil production will reach a peak sometime between now and 2040.

Going forward, Pickens said, rising demand will be met by higher prices rather than ever-larger crude production. "Any alternative fuel has a chance," he said, though he's betting big on wind.

In June, Pickens announced plans to build the world's largest wind farm in West Texas. He said the gradual switch from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources is going to require a fundamental change in the world, "and it will impact lifestyle."

As for his wind project, which could cost as much as $6 billion, Pickens hopes to have it up and running in eight years.

Pickens started his career in the 1950s as a petroleum geologist, formed his reputation in the following decades as the founder of Mesa Petroleum Co. and assured his legendary status in the 1980s with attempts to acquire major oil companies.

It's not that big of a deal. It's just simple supply/demand. If there's less supply than demand the price will go up to fairly distribute the commodity.

It's a good thing that the price is rising because now alternatives to oil will aggressively be pursued.

I hope they hurry so I can keep driving my gas guzzling car and keep flying my gas guzzling airplane.

I love to burn FOSSIL FUELS!!!!!

I disagree with Pickens that we'll see $100 before $80. I think we'll see $80 again first. This run up has driven prices up too high too quickly. I think we'll probably drop from here down to the 50 day moving average for West Texas Intermediate which is down at $78/barrel currently. There should be a good correction beginning soon.

Over 50% of the experts consulted for the U.S. GAO study said Peak Oil production should be between now and the next 10 years.

More and more of the same experts are saying 2005 was the peak oil year for planet Earth. Ever since that date conventional oil production has been falling. Total liquids production peaked in 2006 so far which includes natural gas liquids and ethanol.

Look at this latest study to find out that we should stay on a peak oil plateau till about 2009 and then decline by about 4% per year:
Latest Forward looking Country by Country study on future oil production

Jet

 

[RP170]

CRX--

I've looked at at a few times, tried both eyes open, one eye closed, upside down, etc. Still, I can't figure out what the heck that avatar is all about. It looks like the remnants of a "cowstrike."

I think it's a guy's head in the background with a cat's head in front of it.

 

[crxpilot]

I think it's a guy's head in the background with a cat's head in front of it.

That's it!

 

[BigMeat]

Regardless of peak oil or not 90 or 100 dollars a barrel will have an effect on our economy. Thats means especially us in aviation. I think alot of our retail prices has to do will oil price fixing from the major oil companies in the U.S. Either way there is only so much of it to go around. China eats it up like a fat chick and a box of pez candies. Hopefully in will reach a pinnacle 15-20 years from now and not sooner. Should give us enough time to start looking at other methods and resources. Besides I hate giving those Osama/Bush loving Saudis my money.

 

[Wiggums]

I think alot of our retail prices has to do will oil price fixing from the major oil companies in the U.S.

How do US oil companies fix the price of oil when they control less then 15% of the market? If they were fixing prices, wouldn't their profit margins be higher? Total profits are up, but the profit margin is about where is always has been.

 

[Phaedrus]

It's easier to believe that everything is a conspiracy than to put the effort in to understanding all that goes on in your world.
Path of least resistance, and all....

 

[blzr]

Ths sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!!!!!!

 

[jetflyer]

Blzr,

The sky is not falling. Peak oil just means there will be less oil in the future years. We'll move on to alternatives. There may be a difficult transition period which may include wars for oil and recessions like the DOE says, but it won't be the end of the world. We'll get through. We have no choice. If anything it's a great money making opportunity like peak oil believer Texas Billionaire Rainwater says!

From: http://globalpublicmedia.com/t_boone_pickens_we_peaked_last_year_globally
Here is T. Boone Pickens at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil saying we passed peak oil in 2006. Click here to listen to him:
View Windows Media Video interview (5 min. 51 sec, 22MB)

Legendary Texas oilman and chair of BP Capital, T. Boone Pickens, holds an impromptu video question and answer session at ASPO Houston with Global Public Media's Julian Darley and other journalists. Pickens talks about the peaking of world oil production, which he says occurred in 2006.

79 year old billionaire T. Boone Pickens is ranked by Forbes Magazine as the 131st richest person in the world. Pickens was a well-known takeover artist who he grew his company, Mesa Petroleum, by acquisitions rather than by exploration alone. In recent years Pickens has spoken out on the issue of peak oil and he advocates, amongst other responses, the promotion of renewable energy technologies.

View Windows Media Video interview (5 min. 51 sec, 22MB)

 

[jetflyer]

From:
http://globalpublicmedia.com/chris_skrebowski_on_alarming_new_peak_oil_report

Chris Skrebowski, editor of the UK Petroleum Review, speaks with GPM's Julian Darley about the remarkable new oil report from the German-based Energy Watch Group, which states that world oil production peaked in 2006 and will decline by half as soon as 2030.

Here is the audio of the interview:
Chris Skrebowski on alarming new peak oil report (audio) (length 29 min): download, stream

This is not the same study as the one from the oildrum blog. More and more people are saying we've passed the peak already and that is why there is less oil available and why global inventories(NOT THE SPR) are being drained this 4th quarter.

It's not too late to invest in oil. This current pull back will be a great time to buy. I'm betting the price falls to just below $80/barrel with support at the 50 day moving average.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Don't shoot the messenger:

.Case Western Reserve University has just published its May-Aug survey results, that attracted over 300 oil experts from around the world. Its conclusion: global agreement on peak oil occurring by 2010....

The full report, available on the survey site (www.PeakOilwhen.org), shows an alarming change from the 2005 survey. While geologists in both surveys warned about an imminent Peak Oil, in the older survey, economists and politicians disagreed. In the recent report the agreement on the results is across the board.....

Politicians and decision makers can no longer excuse their inaction with the argument of controversy. The votes are in!

Here is the link to the Peak Oil Report:
http://www.peakoilwhen.org/Report_oct07.pdf

We need to make the move to alternatives to oil 20 years ahead of Peak Oil said the DOE study on Peak Oil to avoid economic hardship.

We need to start SOMETHING NOW! Please tell your politicians to take action. We have to wake up the idiots in Washington........

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

For those that care,

The author of the DOE study on Peak Oil, Robert Hirsch has a new study out. Read about it and find a link to it at this discussion:
http://www.peakoil.com/modules.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=33199

Robert Hirsch, of Hirsch report fame, has made a new study, this time on the economic effects of Peak Oil. He thinks we will see a decline in GDP roughly equal to the decline in oil production, that is 2-5 % a year until mitigation can kick in.

The last slide:
Peak Oil:
The more you think about it, the uglier it gets.

For a interview with Hirsch where he talks about this study, including the need to implement rationing in the US, see here: http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=63

Don't shoot the messenger,
Jet

 

[crxpilot]

B A N G!!!!!

For those that care,

The author of the DOE study on Peak Oil, Robert Hirsch has a new study out. Read about it and find a link to it at this discussion:
http://www.peakoil.com/modules.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=33199



Don't shoot the messenger,
Jet

 

[STL717]

When crude gets too expensive we will use other fuels.

The only shortage is inexpensive crude oil.

 

[jetflyer]

Here is an Aljazeera English interview with the author of the European Energy Watch Groups' startling new study that says peak oil was last year and that oil production is going to soon decline very quickly:
10 MINUTE VIDEO of European Energy Watch Group's Startling Peak Oil study on Al Jazeera English

Bottom line to the study: We're past Peak Oil and the declines will be quite quick beginning after 2009.

As far as the current oil price goes, I believe we're very close to the top of the current run up and we'll see the oil price come down to the low 70's to meet the 200 day moving average. All large runups fall to the 200 day moving average eventually. We're currently 37.6% above the 200 dma and since 2001 we have not gone more than 36.9% above the 200dma.
See Adam Hamilton's editorial: Oil Bull Cycles.
Also see the current charts on oil: WTIC at Stockcharts.com

We could only fall to the 50 day moving average at around the low 80's but the price of oil has just gone up way, way too fast and has to let the moving averages catch up.

The fundamentals couldn't be stronger though with supply(85mbd) being outstripped so strongly by demand(88mbd) this 4th quarter.

Jet

 

[PCL_128]

Did you seriously just post an Al Jazeera link? Really? Do you honestly expect us to give any credence to something that comes from Al Jazeera? You're hurting your credibility even more, buddy. If you want people to pay attention to your rants, then you'd do much better by not using terrorist-supporting news organizations as source material.

 

[jetflyer]

PCL,

No, I posted a Youtube video link of an Al Jazeera English interview.

I posted an interview of the European Energy Watch Group peak oil study head author and also of an OPEC analyst both saying "peak total liquids" which includes natural gas liquids and ethanol was in 2006 and that "peak oil" which includes only crude and condensate was in 2005.

Do you honestly think the controlled media in the United States would interview them about peak oil?

Have you watched the interview?
10 MINUTE VIDEO of European Energy Watch Group's Startling Peak Oil study on Al Jazeera English

Any real analysis of peak oil has been given the gag order in the United States for "national security reasons" in my opinion. Also why wasn't it a Bloomberg or European television interview I posted? The European media won't cover this either. Their people are being subjected to the same media blackout on peak oil as Americans. The propaganda machine is in high gear.

If peak oil were known to have been passed our reasons for attacking Iraq and Iran wouldn't look as honest. Our leaders feel they must do what they have to do. To question Bush and Cheney is Anti-American!!!

Jet

 

[PCL_128]

Have you watched the interview?

No, I won't be watching anything from a news organization that refers to homicide bombers in Iraq as martyrs. They can throw the word English at the end of their name, but it's still Al Jazeera, and I won't have anything to do with them.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Al-Jazeera and Fox News. How are they similar?

They are both massively biased, and neither will admit it.

That doesn't meen that both don't occasionally have something decent to watch.

If you want balance, watch BBC.

cliff
YIP