House Passes Airline Safety and Pilot Training Improvement Act of 2009

[sweptback]

You don't get it. Airlines are going to go out of business if more people don't get into the industry...

The airlines didn't go out of business the last time there was a severe pilot shortage, they just started paying for pilots' training costs.

I think you'll see the same thing this time. Only difference will be that instead of a major airline taking a guy from zero hours to a commercial certificate and putting him in the FE seat of a 727, he will go to the right seat of a regional jet. Plus, I can imagine some pretty wicked training contracts.

I don't think the glory of being an airline pilot is completely gone, I just think the risk/reward curve is screwed up. If you took a lot of the financial risk out of the career path, I think you'd find there was no longer a shortage.

Then there's always Plan B: There is (rough guess) probably close to 10,000 regional pilots at all the regional airlines. That's quite a large pilot pool for the majors to choose from, and it will eliminate the pesky regional airline thing at the same time.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

The airlines didn't go out of business the last time there was a severe pilot shortage, they just started paying for pilots' training costs.

I think you'll see the same thing this time. Only difference will be that instead of a major airline taking a guy from zero hours to a commercial certificate and putting him in the FE seat of a 727, he will go to the right seat of a regional jet. Plus, I can imagine some pretty wicked training contracts.

I don't think the glory of being an airline pilot is completely gone, I just think the risk/reward curve is screwed up. If you took a lot of the financial risk out of the career path, I think you'd find there was no longer a shortage.

Then there's always Plan B: There is (rough guess) probably close to 10,000 regional pilots at all the regional airlines. That's quite a large pilot pool for the majors to choose from, and it will eliminate the pesky regional airline thing at the same time.

Maybe. We'll see what happens. Unintended consequences are likely. I do hope that it puts positive pressure on salaries, but that will mean positive pressure on ticket prices too.

I agree that there would not be a pilot shortage if there were not a financial risk. The problem will now be that the path from newbie to regional FO will be much longer, and there just aren't that many people in the pipeline right now. 3 years from now is going to be interesting at the regional level. Someone is going to go out of business due to lack of crews. It just takes too long to bring a zero time person up to speed, and there won't be enough people out there when the majors start retiring people.

Whatever. It is what it is.

 

[jmreii]

Maybe. We'll see what happens. Unintended consequences are likely. I do hope that it puts positive pressure on salaries, but that will mean positive pressure on ticket prices too.

I agree that there would not be a pilot shortage if there were not a financial risk. The problem will now be that the path from newbie to regional FO will be much longer, and there just aren't that many people in the pipeline right now. 3 years from now is going to be interesting at the regional level. Someone is going to go out of business due to lack of crews. It just takes too long to bring a zero time person up to speed, and there won't be enough people out there when the majors start retiring people.

Whatever. It is what it is.

I do not believe any airline will go out of business because of a shortage of flight crews, more likely it will be because of high ticket prices equals less demand which means I no longer need your product.

 

[PA44Jockey]

It will get interesting when alot of furloughed regional pilots who don't even have 1000hrs won't be back to their jobs for a couple of years. I don't think most of them will have ATP mins when they get called back. The smart ones will start teaching or get the CFIs to aquire said time. Some won't come back at all.

I bet airlines such as Comair are actually banking on this.

 

[JimmyKool]

I remember when you needed 2500-3000 hrs to be competitive for a commuter and there were no shortages then. Also, as long as republic is flying 190's for 170 pay rates. We have no chance for higher income.

 

[rumorhasit]

So there is a three year "grace" period then?

 

[Hobit]

Can't ya'll tie this into ASA some how?!

Really, 21 f'n posts and nobody brought this around to an ASA centric thread.

Your all slipping.

 

[kf4amu]

I remember when you needed 2500-3000 hrs to be competitive for a commuter and there were no shortages then. Also, as long as republic is flying 190's for 170 pay rates. We have no chance for higher income.

Those aren't even 170 pay rates. Those are like...37 seat Dash 8 pay rates, but without the good work rules.

The only airlines that go out of business will be the ones that won't pay enough to attract experienced pilots. And for all you **************************************** who say there arent enough pilots only need to think about the thousands of pilots with thousands of hours that have chosen another career.

 

[NEWSOUTH]

Those aren't even 170 pay rates. Those are like...37 seat Dash 8 pay rates, but without the good work rules.

The only airlines that go out of business will be the ones that won't pay enough to attract experienced pilots. And for all you **************************************** who say there arent enough pilots only need to think about the thousands of pilots with thousands of hours that have chosen another career.

http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/major-national-lcc/republic.html
http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/regional/piedmont.html

Ok let's see.
At 8 year capt. his guarentee is $6375....yours is $4608

Now...at best, all regionals suck.....at worst, shut your mouth.

You can't make that up in soft money and I know you can't make that up in schedule......so, shut your mouth.

I'm sure you are a real proud Henson Airlines pilot flying with mainline wages and workrules, but your ride sucks and you are still a regional driver despite the hat you wear. Get over yourself and your regional contract.

 

[M-crit]

Someone is going to go out of business due to lack of crews. It just takes too long to bring a zero time person up to speed, and there won't be enough people out there when the majors start retiring people.

Whatever. It is what it is.

I know a guy that went from zero time to multi commercial certificate in 3 months. The game will change; there will no longer be ma and pop flight schools but instead pilot factories that turn out pilots in mere months. You'll still have to get your 1500 hrs though.

 

[flylowman]

Well it looks like you might have to pay some your dues now to get a sorry regional job.

 

[zawillif]

Does anyone have a link to the actual bill? I want to know more about this other than just the ATP minimum...is there any change to work rules, duty times, commuter clauses, etc?

 

[wrxpilot]

I know a guy that went from zero time to multi commercial certificate in 3 months. The game will change; there will no longer be ma and pop flight schools but instead pilot factories that turn out pilots in mere months. You'll still have to get your 1500 hrs though.

Well, that was kinda the point of ASA_Aviators post... You don't exactly build 1500 TT/500 xc/100 night/100 inst in 3 months. It takes a significant amount of time, even for the most dedicated individual.

Because of the downturn, I don't see a shortage anytime in the near future, there's just too many people out there with ATP quals looking for work. Maybe things will change a few years from now, who knows. But it's probably going to be rough in the CFI world with all of the competition between time builders.

 

[JumpersAway]

There is no shortage of qualified pilots- only a shortage of qualified pilots willing to work for crappy wages....................

 

[kf4amu]

http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/major-national-lcc/republic.html
http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/regional/piedmont.html

Ok let's see.
At 8 year capt. his guarentee is $6375....yours is $4608

Very few RAH guys have been there 8 years. It could say 500/hr and it wouldn't matter if nobody get its.

Besides, they SHOULD get more to fly a plane twice as big. A less than 1500 dollar difference to fly that airplane is embarrassing. Not to mention to work rules.