A-V-8
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2006
- Posts
- 355
O.K. here is my 1 cent worth. I can’t afford 2 cents because I work at Mesa.
In a pinch airlines like Mesa and some others had to pretty much hire anyone they could. Some guys were pretty much obviously unqualified. Not because of their flight time but because of their attitude. I flew with some guys that it should have been blatantly obvious that they should not be a pilot at all in their interview but they had a pulse and found their way to the training department. All it took was some training to get a multi commercial and walah you are an airline pilot. All they had to do was show up for ground school. That is just about all that some of them are good for after 3 years online. Show up. I could be more productive without them and they had enough time to hold an ATP when I flew with them. (I think it has much more to do with the personality of that person than the thickness of the log book.) You see my point is that in a pinch an airline is going to do what they have to stay afloat. Mesa paid hiring bonuses and paid for housing during training and gave our pilots like $500 bonuses to recruit a qualified pilot. It was kind of like Amway. I don’t know if this bill will pass still requiring an F.O. to have an ATP but if it does it is going to be a big hiccup in a few years.
Right now if an airline hires I bet at least 1000 Apps come in from people who are already typed on that equipment. It will take a while for that sort of thing to clear the system. Then the airlines will eventually work themselves down to the level of hiring folks with just C172 type experience. There are tons of flight instructors who will jump at the first regional that gives them a class date. The issue is that the industry has been stagnant for a while. Once those high time instructors go there will be no one. All of the regionals will run out of applicants at the same time.
The way this problem worked itself in the past was by just lowering the standards of employment to “just come on to class if you have a multi commercial.” Someone who always wanted to be a commercial pilot will not be able to leave their employment for flight training and be on with a regional 4 months later. It will take them at least 2 years (From ETS to Mesa was 2 years and 3 months and I did not have ATP mins when Mesa hired me). Some of the regionals will not be able to recruit people. There will be none for a while because it will take much longer to get through the maze. Will those regionals go out of business? I don’t know but if capacity begins to leave the market from regional’s it will go somewhere. To another regional or back to mainline is anyone’s guess. I don’t have a crystal ball to look into but I think that since the average time someone spends at a regional is 7 years and 29 at a mainline carrier the flying will have to shift back that direction (To gain longevity from pilots) to larger planes to meet the demands of the traveling public with fewer pilots. I hope that I am right.
Sally Mae has quit financing pilot training. Now that it will take a pilot longer to make the journey from Private Pilot to Airline Pilot the bank will be taking on much more risk. With Sally Mae out of the picture and others having already learned from their previous mistakes the supply of pilots will dry up very suddenly. Age 65 kicks in Dec. 2013. My guess is that a year or so from then the economy and attrition will have sucked the supply of ATP qualified pilots that are willing to work for 17K dry. Drastic changes in our industry will follow.
In a pinch airlines like Mesa and some others had to pretty much hire anyone they could. Some guys were pretty much obviously unqualified. Not because of their flight time but because of their attitude. I flew with some guys that it should have been blatantly obvious that they should not be a pilot at all in their interview but they had a pulse and found their way to the training department. All it took was some training to get a multi commercial and walah you are an airline pilot. All they had to do was show up for ground school. That is just about all that some of them are good for after 3 years online. Show up. I could be more productive without them and they had enough time to hold an ATP when I flew with them. (I think it has much more to do with the personality of that person than the thickness of the log book.) You see my point is that in a pinch an airline is going to do what they have to stay afloat. Mesa paid hiring bonuses and paid for housing during training and gave our pilots like $500 bonuses to recruit a qualified pilot. It was kind of like Amway. I don’t know if this bill will pass still requiring an F.O. to have an ATP but if it does it is going to be a big hiccup in a few years.
Right now if an airline hires I bet at least 1000 Apps come in from people who are already typed on that equipment. It will take a while for that sort of thing to clear the system. Then the airlines will eventually work themselves down to the level of hiring folks with just C172 type experience. There are tons of flight instructors who will jump at the first regional that gives them a class date. The issue is that the industry has been stagnant for a while. Once those high time instructors go there will be no one. All of the regionals will run out of applicants at the same time.
The way this problem worked itself in the past was by just lowering the standards of employment to “just come on to class if you have a multi commercial.” Someone who always wanted to be a commercial pilot will not be able to leave their employment for flight training and be on with a regional 4 months later. It will take them at least 2 years (From ETS to Mesa was 2 years and 3 months and I did not have ATP mins when Mesa hired me). Some of the regionals will not be able to recruit people. There will be none for a while because it will take much longer to get through the maze. Will those regionals go out of business? I don’t know but if capacity begins to leave the market from regional’s it will go somewhere. To another regional or back to mainline is anyone’s guess. I don’t have a crystal ball to look into but I think that since the average time someone spends at a regional is 7 years and 29 at a mainline carrier the flying will have to shift back that direction (To gain longevity from pilots) to larger planes to meet the demands of the traveling public with fewer pilots. I hope that I am right.
Sally Mae has quit financing pilot training. Now that it will take a pilot longer to make the journey from Private Pilot to Airline Pilot the bank will be taking on much more risk. With Sally Mae out of the picture and others having already learned from their previous mistakes the supply of pilots will dry up very suddenly. Age 65 kicks in Dec. 2013. My guess is that a year or so from then the economy and attrition will have sucked the supply of ATP qualified pilots that are willing to work for 17K dry. Drastic changes in our industry will follow.
Last edited:
