The mainlines have already undercut the industry leading regional rates to "recapture" the flying.....If we did the same we would be accused of "stealing" flying....There is a double standard.....
I find part of your statement interesting....You imply that the money coming to Skywest will "be used against legacies one day"....can you expound on that?
I don't think anyone could credibly accuse you of stealing permitted outsourced flying. Maybe another outsource ACMI lift provider, but such an accusation could never come credibly from the mainline pilot group if that's what you're implying. You have the right to bid whatever you want for that flying, but the mainline (management and/or pilots) each has the right to bring it back at anytime.
As for the "used against the legacies" I thought that part needed no explanation. Obviously one day Jerry will take his half a billion (more like well over a billion by then) and start his own airline. Like any well funded start up, he will slaughter yields nationwide in an attempt to gain market share before he burns through his cash. I think that is inevitable. His company is a well run, respected company, but like any "growth stock" he will not be content when his regional ACMI outsourced lift plateaus, and it will one day, probably soon. If 90's start leaving, followed by 70's, he will freak and make his move immediately, unless he can rustle up
more mainline partners.
Ditto for Republic. Bedford has delusions of grandeur of running an E190 fleet where he flies his own empty brand filled almost exclusively with mainline code from every legacy (as if that would ever be approoved by mainline pilot groups :laugh: ) but it is his dream.
ACA took 300+ million dollars they built up from Delta and United and used it against them (mostly against United). It was a bloody fight at a tough time, and United was able to crush the rebellion (how it appeared from their point of view) and replace the regional feed almost immediately.
CoEx is trying a similar thing, on a smaller scale, and in less overlapping markets. But they are taking the treasure they hoarded up in the glory days of guaranteed profits from a legacy and are using it on the open market. They are doing it on a much smaller scale than Indy did, with nothing over 50 seats for now, and in thin, creative markets. That's why the competitive response has been minimal thus far. They may or may not succeed in the long run, but in any case if they go hard after CAL or any other legacy for that matter, they will be crushed eventually, but both will bleed in the meantime.
Republic and/or SkyWest, Inc. are next. Maybe this year, maybe next year, or maybe a little later. But both will try eventually. Both are still drunk off of sustained guaranteed profits and exponential growth and bigger and bigger aircraft. First their beloved trend will stop, then go the other way and once that happens the only way they can survive long term is to take their war chests and go for it, despite the massive risks. When they do, they will bleed Delta and United (and USAir and Frontier, etc) but they will eventually be crushed, unless the legacies keep giving them massive growth so that they can build up 2 or 3 billion in savings. Then they may stand a chance, which is reason number 763 why they need to be pulled off the teet of subsidized outsourced large RJ flying sooner than later.
(sarcasm intended)
