It's actually quite simple. Look at M/A history. If you use the 'career expectations' model, which would actually be best for us, you see that AA has no comparable equipment in # of seats, A/C type, etc. Since no arbitrator would put any group of employees in smaller, lower paying equipment senior to those in larger, higher paying equipment, it's a no brainer.
It's like saying if AA bought Mesa, then the #1 RJ guy at Mesa gets equal seniority to the #1 777 captain at AA. Not gonna happen.
You would be wise to look at M & A history to see what we can expect. Even if we get pure DOH, the most junior pilot on AA's current on property list was hired considerably earlier then when B6 even started ops. DOH = staple.
It's a sad, sad fact, but that is what is going to happen, like it or not. The only thing a CBA will really do is allow Mcaskill/Bond to apply to the B6 pilot group, meaning we will be senior to all currently furloughed AA pilots. Which, in my opinion, won't matter because there won't be a furlough if they buy us anyway.
For those of you that think we will have a fighting chance against the APA I just shake my head. No arbitrator will give us the time of day, and the APA will keep the companies seperate ala USAir before they let one of our guys gain any seniority to any one of their guys. The best case wet dream scenario for us would be our guys getting intergrated captain/fo to all their MD80/737 guys. That ain't gonna happen, especially with the 190 guys.
Those that say it will be ugly are wrong. The APA will light us on fire and piss on the ashes, just like they did with the TWA guys. The only saving grace is the fact that in less than 20 years, pretty much their entire seniority list will be gone. Even if we get stapled, every B6 pilot that is left will be able to hold international widebody captain at some point. The junior guys like me will hold it for 10-15 years. That ain't so bad.
I say bring it on.