Future AMR/B6 timeline....

[Smarta$$]

It is pathetic that you can use BK to gut your employees pay and benefits, back out of your debts, pay your executives millions in bonuses for ruining a company, and then exit BK and ruin someone else's airline...

The American way.

 

[Flyby1206]

It is pathetic that you can use BK to gut your employees pay and benefits, back out of your debts, pay your executives millions in bonuses for ruining a company, and then exit BK and ruin someone else's airline...

The American way.

Agreed:

http://frontburner.dmagazine.com/20...ter-11-bankruptcy-saying-it-screws-creditors/

“One of the problems in America is something called Chapter 11,” Branson (pictured) said today in Dallas after appearing at a fundraiser for The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. He noted that airlines including United, Delta, and Continental all preceded American in seeking bankruptcy protection, enabling them to “screw their creditors” and come out with more efficient operations. “If you got rid of Chapter 11 in this country, when a company goes bust, it would be like an old tree. It would [die off] and leave room for younger airlines to come up…

 

[$$$4nothin]

This whole process will probably take about 4 to 5 years from now. Here we go. Bank on it.

These are the AA retirement numbers:

Mandatory retirements:
2012 - 5
2013 - 85
2014 - 103
2015 - 130
2016 - 167
2017 - 255
2018 - 331
2019 - 442
2020 - 545
2021 - 601
2022 - 666
2023 - 710
2024 - 725
2025 - 731
2026 - 716
2027 - 599
2028 - 517
2029 - 477
2030 - 416
2031 - 437

OK so in 5 years AA will have 490 retirements. Within ten years AA is retireing around 3,000. The entire B6 pilot group is 2,300. Interesting numbers, and would be an easy way to supplement already trained pilots needed to fill that need. Add to the fact the AA 460 plane order. With 460 planes on order I don't see the massive scope reduction that a lot of guys are talking about. Even if AA buys B6 and DOH/Staple was used I don't see a lot of furloughs in the future. Not long term furloughs at least. The question is who is going to want to work for AA after there management destroys what was a great company to work for through CH. 11 preceedings.

 

[pilot772]

These are the AA retirement numbers:

Mandatory retirements:
2012 - 5
2013 - 85
2014 - 103
2015 - 130
2016 - 167
2017 - 255
2018 - 331
2019 - 442
2020 - 545
2021 - 601
2022 - 666
2023 - 710
2024 - 725
2025 - 731
2026 - 716
2027 - 599
2028 - 517
2029 - 477
2030 - 416
2031 - 437

OK so in 5 years AA will have 490 retirements. Within ten years AA is retireing around 3,000. The entire B6 pilot group is 2,300. Interesting numbers, and would be an easy way to supplement already trained pilots needed to fill that need. Add to the fact the AA 460 plane order. With 460 planes on order I don't see the massive scope reduction that a lot of guys are talking about. Even if AA buys B6 and DOH/Staple was used I don't see a lot of furloughs in the future. Not long term furloughs at least. The question is who is going to want to work for AA after there management destroys what was a great company to work for through CH. 11 preceedings.

You forget the fact that AA has 1700 possibly soon to be 2100 on furlough. As you pointed out that's the almost the entire B6 list. The other thing to think about is most mergers come about to remove capacity from many markets. So you can't just combine the number of airplanes at both company's and assume that's how many will be operating long term. This is all hypothetical because it is more likely AA and APA will just get rid of all B6 pilots. Think it can't happen read your PEA. If you signed the recent amendment then the acquiring company just has to keep you on property for 1 year then they can get rid of you (not a furlough with recall rights either) If you didn't sign; the acquiring company can just pay you 1 years salary (more then likely Min Guarantee on the 190) and then get rid of you. We need a union on property yesterday and in house just won't cut it. Unfortunately it's probably too late anyway.

 

[Draginass]

There are about 650 AA furloughees that have not been offered recall. The take rate for recall was very low even earlier last year when management was spreading rosy rumors about future advancement. I would expect that the take rate for any future recalls will go to single digits after AA management uses the BK court to turn the pilots' contract into a doormat.

Right now management is saying 400 pilot jobs going away, but I think that's a BS also. I think it'll be more like 1000 if they are able to turn the APA into a lapdog union like ALPA.

 

[CapnVegetto]

I don't think there will be many furloughs at all, if any. Especially if they offer an early out.

As far as recalls, they will be lucky to get half of them when all is said and done. Lots of those guys have been furloughed for YEARS, are captains at WN or somewhere else, and will never go back. I personally know 3 in nice corporate jobs that are never going back.

Remember, this proposal is AA's dream sheet. They won't get it all. I doubt they'll get half.

They will get the scope reductions and xodeshare stuff. But they won't get a lot of it, too. It'll be something in the middle.

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

Thanks for posting that. What say you Blue Bayou?

Still here at 12 years without a M/A... Can't say that for ASA, America West, Airtran, Colgan, Continental, Delta, Eastern, Frontier, Mesaba, Midwest, Northwest, PanAm, Pinnacle, Southwest, Skywest, TWA, United, US Airways-- or all the dead ones like ACA (Indiair), Skybus, Southeastern or the newly bankrupt AMR and Eagle, World Airways (North American)... I'd say we're doing just fine... But that's just my opinion based on a laundry list of facts. You can go ahead and continue to speculate as you are so well at doing...

 

[n757st]

Still here at 12 years without a M/A... Can't say that for ASA, America West, Airtran, Colgan, Continental, Delta, Eastern, Frontier, Mesaba, Midwest, Northwest, PanAm, Pinnacle, Southwest, Skywest, TWA, United, US Airways-- or all the dead ones like ACA (Indiair), Skybus, Southeastern or the newly bankrupt AMR and Eagle, World Airways (North American)... I'd say we're doing just fine... But that's just my opinion based on a laundry list of facts. You can go ahead and continue to speculate as you are so well at doing...

Past performance does not always forecast future results. If the shareholders and the boardmembers see enough incentive to sell or merge, they will.

 

[B6Busdriver]

Still here at 12 years without a M/A... Can't say that for ASA, America West, Airtran, Colgan, Continental, Delta, Eastern, Frontier, Mesaba, Midwest, Northwest, PanAm, Pinnacle, Southwest, Skywest, TWA, United, US Airways-- or all the dead ones like ACA (Indiair), Skybus, Southeastern or the newly bankrupt AMR and Eagle, World Airways (North American)... I'd say we're doing just fine... But that's just my opinion based on a laundry list of facts. You can go ahead and continue to speculate as you are so well at doing...

The problem is you think Jet Blue is different or special. If that lets you sleep at night go with it. Let's look at the players left in the game:

United=Varney,Boeing Transport,Capital,Pan Am assets,CAL(Varney Speed,Pioneer,Texas Air,PEX)

WN=Muse,Morse,Air Tran(AT+Valujet)

AA=SAFE,Universal,Air Cal,TWA

DL=Chicago and Southern,Northeast,Western,Northwest

Alaska=McGhee,Star,Alaskan,Collins,Alaska Coast,Cordova,Jet America

US Airways=All American,Allegheny, Piedmont,PSA,Empire,America West

But hey we'll never merge. They should make you grand marshal at next year's SOTA.

 

[doylehargraves]

here's what's gonna happen.

B6 pilots get bent over the woodshed and fu-ked like a $2 dollar Columbian transvestite whore in seniority integration.

That paints a nice picture. Is there a lot of this activity going on in Columbia?? I assume you live there, or frequent the place, to be "in the know"....