Future AMR/B6 timeline....

[Smarta$$]

It is pathetic that you can use BK to gut your employees pay and benefits, back out of your debts, pay your executives millions in bonuses for ruining a company, and then exit BK and ruin someone else's airline...

The American way.

 

[Flyby1206]

It is pathetic that you can use BK to gut your employees pay and benefits, back out of your debts, pay your executives millions in bonuses for ruining a company, and then exit BK and ruin someone else's airline...

The American way.

Agreed:

http://frontburner.dmagazine.com/20...ter-11-bankruptcy-saying-it-screws-creditors/

“One of the problems in America is something called Chapter 11,” Branson (pictured) said today in Dallas after appearing at a fundraiser for The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. He noted that airlines including United, Delta, and Continental all preceded American in seeking bankruptcy protection, enabling them to “screw their creditors” and come out with more efficient operations. “If you got rid of Chapter 11 in this country, when a company goes bust, it would be like an old tree. It would [die off] and leave room for younger airlines to come up…

 

[$$$4nothin]

This whole process will probably take about 4 to 5 years from now. Here we go. Bank on it.

These are the AA retirement numbers:

Mandatory retirements:
2012 - 5
2013 - 85
2014 - 103
2015 - 130
2016 - 167
2017 - 255
2018 - 331
2019 - 442
2020 - 545
2021 - 601
2022 - 666
2023 - 710
2024 - 725
2025 - 731
2026 - 716
2027 - 599
2028 - 517
2029 - 477
2030 - 416
2031 - 437

OK so in 5 years AA will have 490 retirements. Within ten years AA is retireing around 3,000. The entire B6 pilot group is 2,300. Interesting numbers, and would be an easy way to supplement already trained pilots needed to fill that need. Add to the fact the AA 460 plane order. With 460 planes on order I don't see the massive scope reduction that a lot of guys are talking about. Even if AA buys B6 and DOH/Staple was used I don't see a lot of furloughs in the future. Not long term furloughs at least. The question is who is going to want to work for AA after there management destroys what was a great company to work for through CH. 11 preceedings.

 

[pilot772]

These are the AA retirement numbers:

Mandatory retirements:
2012 - 5
2013 - 85
2014 - 103
2015 - 130
2016 - 167
2017 - 255
2018 - 331
2019 - 442
2020 - 545
2021 - 601
2022 - 666
2023 - 710
2024 - 725
2025 - 731
2026 - 716
2027 - 599
2028 - 517
2029 - 477
2030 - 416
2031 - 437

OK so in 5 years AA will have 490 retirements. Within ten years AA is retireing around 3,000. The entire B6 pilot group is 2,300. Interesting numbers, and would be an easy way to supplement already trained pilots needed to fill that need. Add to the fact the AA 460 plane order. With 460 planes on order I don't see the massive scope reduction that a lot of guys are talking about. Even if AA buys B6 and DOH/Staple was used I don't see a lot of furloughs in the future. Not long term furloughs at least. The question is who is going to want to work for AA after there management destroys what was a great company to work for through CH. 11 preceedings.

You forget the fact that AA has 1700 possibly soon to be 2100 on furlough. As you pointed out that's the almost the entire B6 list. The other thing to think about is most mergers come about to remove capacity from many markets. So you can't just combine the number of airplanes at both company's and assume that's how many will be operating long term. This is all hypothetical because it is more likely AA and APA will just get rid of all B6 pilots. Think it can't happen read your PEA. If you signed the recent amendment then the acquiring company just has to keep you on property for 1 year then they can get rid of you (not a furlough with recall rights either) If you didn't sign; the acquiring company can just pay you 1 years salary (more then likely Min Guarantee on the 190) and then get rid of you. We need a union on property yesterday and in house just won't cut it. Unfortunately it's probably too late anyway.

 

[Draginass]

There are about 650 AA furloughees that have not been offered recall. The take rate for recall was very low even earlier last year when management was spreading rosy rumors about future advancement. I would expect that the take rate for any future recalls will go to single digits after AA management uses the BK court to turn the pilots' contract into a doormat.

Right now management is saying 400 pilot jobs going away, but I think that's a BS also. I think it'll be more like 1000 if they are able to turn the APA into a lapdog union like ALPA.

 

[CapnVegetto]

I don't think there will be many furloughs at all, if any. Especially if they offer an early out.

As far as recalls, they will be lucky to get half of them when all is said and done. Lots of those guys have been furloughed for YEARS, are captains at WN or somewhere else, and will never go back. I personally know 3 in nice corporate jobs that are never going back.

Remember, this proposal is AA's dream sheet. They won't get it all. I doubt they'll get half.

They will get the scope reductions and xodeshare stuff. But they won't get a lot of it, too. It'll be something in the middle.

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

Thanks for posting that. What say you Blue Bayou?

Still here at 12 years without a M/A... Can't say that for ASA, America West, Airtran, Colgan, Continental, Delta, Eastern, Frontier, Mesaba, Midwest, Northwest, PanAm, Pinnacle, Southwest, Skywest, TWA, United, US Airways-- or all the dead ones like ACA (Indiair), Skybus, Southeastern or the newly bankrupt AMR and Eagle, World Airways (North American)... I'd say we're doing just fine... But that's just my opinion based on a laundry list of facts. You can go ahead and continue to speculate as you are so well at doing...

 

[n757st]

Still here at 12 years without a M/A... Can't say that for ASA, America West, Airtran, Colgan, Continental, Delta, Eastern, Frontier, Mesaba, Midwest, Northwest, PanAm, Pinnacle, Southwest, Skywest, TWA, United, US Airways-- or all the dead ones like ACA (Indiair), Skybus, Southeastern or the newly bankrupt AMR and Eagle, World Airways (North American)... I'd say we're doing just fine... But that's just my opinion based on a laundry list of facts. You can go ahead and continue to speculate as you are so well at doing...

Past performance does not always forecast future results. If the shareholders and the boardmembers see enough incentive to sell or merge, they will.

 

[B6Busdriver]

Still here at 12 years without a M/A... Can't say that for ASA, America West, Airtran, Colgan, Continental, Delta, Eastern, Frontier, Mesaba, Midwest, Northwest, PanAm, Pinnacle, Southwest, Skywest, TWA, United, US Airways-- or all the dead ones like ACA (Indiair), Skybus, Southeastern or the newly bankrupt AMR and Eagle, World Airways (North American)... I'd say we're doing just fine... But that's just my opinion based on a laundry list of facts. You can go ahead and continue to speculate as you are so well at doing...

The problem is you think Jet Blue is different or special. If that lets you sleep at night go with it. Let's look at the players left in the game:

United=Varney,Boeing Transport,Capital,Pan Am assets,CAL(Varney Speed,Pioneer,Texas Air,PEX)

WN=Muse,Morse,Air Tran(AT+Valujet)

AA=SAFE,Universal,Air Cal,TWA

DL=Chicago and Southern,Northeast,Western,Northwest

Alaska=McGhee,Star,Alaskan,Collins,Alaska Coast,Cordova,Jet America

US Airways=All American,Allegheny, Piedmont,PSA,Empire,America West

But hey we'll never merge. They should make you grand marshal at next year's SOTA.

 

[doylehargraves]

here's what's gonna happen.

B6 pilots get bent over the woodshed and fu-ked like a $2 dollar Columbian transvestite whore in seniority integration.

That paints a nice picture. Is there a lot of this activity going on in Columbia?? I assume you live there, or frequent the place, to be "in the know"....

 

[doylehargraves]

Isn't this all speculation anyway?? Why are you guys getting so fired up over your own made up story?? this is funny.

 

[CapnVegetto]

You should see bluepilots

 

[JJthejetplane]

Anybody know why Barger felt it was worth repeating twice during the SOTA that we must work very "AGGRESSIVELY" to avoid participating in a merger/acquisition? If it isn't going to happen because of his "intent" and the "moat", why do we have to work so "AGGRESSIVELY"? It sounds to me like there is something already in play.

 

[BeachBummer]

Still here at 12 years without a M/A... Can't say that for ASA, America West, Airtran, Colgan, Continental, Delta, Eastern, Frontier, Mesaba, Midwest, Northwest, PanAm, Pinnacle, Southwest, Skywest, TWA, United, US Airways-- or all the dead ones like ACA (Indiair), Skybus, Southeastern or the newly bankrupt AMR and Eagle, World Airways (North American)... I'd say we're doing just fine... But that's just my opinion based on a laundry list of facts. You can go ahead and continue to speculate as you are so well at doing...

Great post. You make a good point. 12 yrs is a long time to stand alone. However all those companies were at one point profitable expanding places... Until they weren't... All those companies have a story. Many were top notch places at one point. 12 yrs barely gets us out of the stone age. You talk like we've been around for 120 yrs and can't die...

Ya know, I truly hope your right. Odds are and history says your not. But for all of us here I hope you are right.

 

[CapnVegetto]

Anybody know why Barger felt it was worth repeating twice during the SOTA that we must work very "AGGRESSIVELY" to avoid participating in a merger/acquisition? If it isn't going to happen because of his "intent" and the "moat", why do we have to work so "AGGRESSIVELY"? It sounds to me like there is something already in play.

Barger doesn't have a damn thing to do with it. Soon as the right offer comes along, the BOD will take their money and run.

Just better hope like he'll we get a union before that happens.

It is GOING to happen. Just a question of who and when. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.

 

[ATR-DRIVR]

Unfortunately we have 1193 fools here.....

 

[Lake Alice]

Still here at 12 years without a M/A... Can't say that for ASA, America West, Airtran, Colgan, Continental, Delta, Eastern, Frontier, Mesaba, Midwest, Northwest, PanAm, Pinnacle, Southwest, Skywest, TWA, United, US Airways-- or all the dead ones like ACA (Indiair), Skybus, Southeastern or the newly bankrupt AMR and Eagle, World Airways (North American)... I'd say we're doing just fine... But that's just my opinion based on a laundry list of facts. You can go ahead and continue to speculate as you are so well at doing...

Still here after 12 years with below industry standard pay, benefits, retirement, merger protection, STD/LTD/LOL...but you'd say we're doing just fine. I guess when you use mil medical and mil retirement you don't need JetBlues. For that matter why should you try and help others unless it's with their taxi speeds.

 

[CapnVegetto]

A union is coming the same as a merger. It WILL happen. Our best hope is that it happens in time to make McCaskill/Bond apply to us.

If AA buys us, we are going to get stapled. If we have a CBA and get SUPER lucky a few high up captains might get a bit of integration. 190 guys and all FO's are going to get stapled, though. That's just the way it is. Our PEA vs. the APA? That's a no brainer. If we have a CBA, though, at least we'll be put ahead of any furloughs not on property.

The APA doesn't hate us, it is simply their job to get the best deal possible for their members. Barger doesn't hate us any more than I hate him. He is just doing his job, which is to maximize shareholder value. He's there to make money for the company, NOT to take care of the employees.

The thing that gets me is this: NOBODY in the entire industry has looked at WN, how they run their heavily unionized shop, how they treat their employees with tops in the industry pay and benefits, and said "you know, that's not a bad idea, maybe we should try that. Our employees will work their butts off!" It would be a novel idea if B6 management, or any airline management for that matter would give that a shot.

I'm probably dreaming, though.

 

[Golden Falcon]

That's right. All I know is the UCMJ and General Orders of the Sentry. Me just dumb Navy guy.

There have been at least five "solid" rumors of us being bought since I've been here. Should I freak out at all of them? If/when it happens, there is nothing I can do about it. Until then I'm not going to get an ulcer wondering when the M/A/buyout is going to be announced.

I have read "Flying the Line", I'm well aware of what's going on in the industry, and I have already sent in my interest card - third time. Your "milspec" labeling makes you sound ignorant.

His J32 moniker makes him sound MORE ignorant...

 

[Lake Alice]

The idiots are the no voters. You can't pigeon hole an entire group because of their background. We have good/bad mil, corp, frac, regional, major pilots.

 

[CapnVegetto]

The idiots are the no voters. You can't pigeon hole an entire group because of their background. We have good/bad mil, corp, frac, regional, major pilots.

I'm hearing stories of a lot of no voters regretting it now. Especially with this whole COLA raise debacle.

If there is another drive this year, I believe it has a good chance of succeeding.

 

[BeachBummer]

I'm hearing stories of a lot of no voters regretting it now. Especially with this whole COLA raise debacle.

If there is another drive this year, I believe it has a good chance of succeeding.

NO NO NO! It will be the end of jetBlue as we know it!!! Dave will quit! Rob will quit!! They'll sell us to USAir!! They'll take away FLICA! We will be forced back to 2006 pay scales and then our hours will be capped!! ALPA will assess the JB pilots for TWA's sellout to AA. We won't be able to get better health care, look at the economy. I can invest my 2% in better things.

No way man, never happen. Dave, Rob and the moat will protect us and we have a poison pill. uke:

 

[pilotpayne]

If AA buys us, we are going to get stapled. If we have a CBA and get SUPER lucky a few high up captains might get a bit of integration. 190 guys and all FO's are going to get stapled, though.



So they would staple 190 captains. Why?

How do you guys come up with this stuff?

 

[Lake Alice]

If we have a CBA we have a shot. We have the ability to fight that battle.

With the PEA Dave Barger or a member of management is our representative.

 

[CapnVegetto]

If AA buys us, we are going to get stapled. If we have a CBA and get SUPER lucky a few high up captains might get a bit of integration. 190 guys and all FO's are going to get stapled, though.



So they would staple 190 captains. Why?

How do you guys come up with this stuff?

It's actually quite simple. Look at M/A history. If you use the 'career expectations' model, which would actually be best for us, you see that AA has no comparable equipment in # of seats, A/C type, etc. Since no arbitrator would put any group of employees in smaller, lower paying equipment senior to those in larger, higher paying equipment, it's a no brainer.

It's like saying if AA bought Mesa, then the #1 RJ guy at Mesa gets equal seniority to the #1 777 captain at AA. Not gonna happen.

You would be wise to look at M & A history to see what we can expect. Even if we get pure DOH, the most junior pilot on AA's current on property list was hired considerably earlier then when B6 even started ops. DOH = staple.

It's a sad, sad fact, but that is what is going to happen, like it or not. The only thing a CBA will really do is allow Mcaskill/Bond to apply to the B6 pilot group, meaning we will be senior to all currently furloughed AA pilots. Which, in my opinion, won't matter because there won't be a furlough if they buy us anyway.

For those of you that think we will have a fighting chance against the APA I just shake my head. No arbitrator will give us the time of day, and the APA will keep the companies seperate ala USAir before they let one of our guys gain any seniority to any one of their guys. The best case wet dream scenario for us would be our guys getting intergrated captain/fo to all their MD80/737 guys. That ain't gonna happen, especially with the 190 guys.

Those that say it will be ugly are wrong. The APA will light us on fire and piss on the ashes, just like they did with the TWA guys. The only saving grace is the fact that in less than 20 years, pretty much their entire seniority list will be gone. Even if we get stapled, every B6 pilot that is left will be able to hold international widebody captain at some point. The junior guys like me will hold it for 10-15 years. That ain't so bad.

I say bring it on.

 

[CapnVegetto]

If we have a CBA we have a shot. We have the ability to fight that battle.

With the PEA Dave Barger or a member of management is our representative.

we do have the ability to fight the battle, but we don't have a leg to stand on. The most junior pilot on property at AA is senior to the entire B6 company. The best we can possibly hope for is a few senior guys getting a little bit of integration.

Honestly, I doubt we'd do much worse with Barger representing us. But we still need a CBA desperately simply for McCaskill/Bond to apply.

 

[macdu]

NO NO NO! It will be the end of jetBlue as we know it!!! Dave will quit! Rob will quit!! They'll sell us to USAir!! They'll take away FLICA! We will be forced back to 2006 pay scales and then our hours will be capped!! ALPA will assess the JB pilots for TWA's sellout to AA. We won't be able to get better health care, look at the economy. I can invest my 2% in better things.

No way man, never happen. Dave, Rob and the moat will protect us and we have a poison pill. uke:

"TWA's sell out". Excuse me! Are you kidding me!

 

[Flyby1206]

It's actually quite simple. Look at M/A history. If you use the 'career expectations' model, which would actually be best for us, you see that AA has no comparable equipment in # of seats, A/C type, etc. Since no arbitrator would put any group of employees in smaller, lower paying equipment senior to those in larger, higher paying equipment, it's a no brainer.

It's like saying if AA bought Mesa, then the #1 RJ guy at Mesa gets equal seniority to the #1 777 captain at AA. Not gonna happen.

You would be wise to look at M & A history to see what we can expect. Even if we get pure DOH, the most junior pilot on AA's current on property list was hired considerably earlier then when B6 even started ops. DOH = staple.

It's a sad, sad fact, but that is what is going to happen, like it or not. The only thing a CBA will really do is allow Mcaskill/Bond to apply to the B6 pilot group, meaning we will be senior to all currently furloughed AA pilots. Which, in my opinion, won't matter because there won't be a furlough if they buy us anyway.

For those of you that think we will have a fighting chance against the APA I just shake my head. No arbitrator will give us the time of day, and the APA will keep the companies seperate ala USAir before they let one of our guys gain any seniority to any one of their guys. The best case wet dream scenario for us would be our guys getting intergrated captain/fo to all their MD80/737 guys. That ain't gonna happen, especially with the 190 guys.

If it was anyone other than APA, I would argue that RAH and F9 integration placed a huge portion of RJ guys above A320 pilots, so your arguement doesnt hold water.

BUT... we would hypothetically be dealing with AMR and APA. The two most evil and dangerous groups in the business. There would be no doubt in my mind that we would be stapled and/or furloughed. CBA or no CBA.

 

[CapnVegetto]

If it was anyone other than APA, I would argue that RAH and F9 integration placed a huge portion of RJ guys above A320 pilots, so your arguement doesnt hold water.

BUT... we would hypothetically be dealing with AMR and APA. The two most evil and dangerous groups in the business. There would be no doubt in my mind that we would be stapled and/or furloughed. CBA or no CBA.

Exactly. AMR is Satan incarnate.

 

[Otto77]

Anyone hear on of our fellow pilots question to RM regarding pay review today? Glad he asked and was interesting to see all the excuses. Long story short looks like nothing will come about without a CBA.