Just on the surface if you are right than they have a very big problem. It is around 1190 miles ONT-AUS if you are getting $180 roundtrip thats $90 each way...subtract taxes and you have about $81 left to cover your costs and make a profit. If you were 100% full you would pull in $4500 divide that by 1190miles and 50 seats and you get a RASM of $.756 if your costs exceed
.756 per mile than you are losing money. If I recall ExJet was in the .12 or .13 asm cost. But lets give you the benefit of the doubt and say you can get your costs down to $.10 per mile so each flight is producing a loss of $1465 per FLIGHT. So now you fly the airplane two round trips per day in the market and you lose $5860 per day on this one market with a 100% load factor. With two round trips that is almost one whole aircraft ...although with point to point scheduling you may get in another leg at 100% load factor you add another $1465 loss to make one aircraft for one day lose $7325 multiply that by 30 days and one aircraft has now lost $219,750 multiply that by 44 aircraft and your monthly loss is $9.7 million per month multiply that by 12 months and this little experiment has now lost over $116 million per year. Not to mention that you took 67 aircraft that were making a profit of 0ne million per year? (Thats a guess, but if I recall you made about $265 million last year and had about that number of aircraft.) So now you lose that $67 million add in the $116 million from this new operation and your new profit is a net profit next year of $82 million. Bad but not death yet, right? Well remember this is at 100% load factor. If you take that down to 75% load factor your loss goes up to $200 million on the branded operation and a loss of the $67 million in profit that you made. Now the situation is a loss for ExpressJet of 2 million annually. If none of your other costs increase and you keep making the same level of profit on your other COEX flying.
My belief is it will force Express Jet into bankruptcy, where they can dump the unwanted aircraft back to CO.This is why you are in for a rough time with this airline. You will lose so much money that the entire company will quickly be in jeopardy. When that happens you wont be able to escape fast enough.
I hope I am wrong, but you need to keep your options open and when the signs get more obvious. And they will, don't be the last one out the door.