Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

[xjlifer]

I make over $100,000 at a regional. However I am also a "lifer". I really like my job. I don't complain (to much) on the line and get 18 days off a month. Student loans are long ago paid off. For me life is great.

However I would not want my son to follow in my footsteps. The uncertainty and low initial wages are a show stopper today. If I average my earnings since I first started to get paid to fly.....well it is not a pretty picture.

There are not enough people willing to make the pathetic wages offered to replace the idiots like me that did.

 

[Krapflier]

Flying in the US is dead. That is if you want a livable wage and a half way descent schedule. There may be a few jobs that are true gems but I assure you they are the exception not the rule. The majority of the majors don't start hitting big retirement numbers till 2020.

OCONUS is where the money is at. Name a place in the US where you can get a FO job starting at 80K - 100K flying a 777. Korea, China, UAE, Japan is where its at gentlemen. Its all contracts, if after three years I want to try my luck at another airline I don't start at $42 an hour till I hit my second year I start a new contract.

Don't want to live overseas fine, most of the contract in Asia give you 12-15 days off a month, a ticket, and 1 travel day on either side to commute to and from the States.

Get a clue. The US is played out as far as flying goes.

 

[OPECJet]

NJA has already dumped 495 pilots into the market. Maybe 150 - 200 are still looking for or would consider another flying job. AA / Eagle is going to dump another buttload but with a low net loss of job as scope erodes and bigger RJ's suck up those put on the street. Citationair is dumping another 100 or so in the next few months. Add in some ACMI bankruptcies and I think that long awaited pilot shortage will prove little more than a minor inconvenience to airline HR depts.

 

[BrickTop]

There's no polite way to say. The pilot shortage is the biggest brainwash tactic that lured the dumbest of this industry's workers. Krapflier is correct. This Profession is FINISHED in the US. Get out.

 

[CaribPilot]

Some of you clearly have not seen the sheer amount of retirements that are coming up.

This is just for Delta, Unical, & AMR...add on everyone else...and you have a sh*t storm brewing.

2013- 695
2014- 892
2015- 939
2016- 964
2017- 1110
2018- 1258
2019- 1449
2020- 1653
2021- 1957
2022- 2016
2023- 2108
2024- 2047
2025- 2081
2026- 2011
2027- 1780
2028- 1767
2029- 1654
2030- 1240
2031- 975

 

[reepicheep]

Consolidation
Outsourcing
Downsizing
Cabotage
Another hike in the retirement age

If that don't do it I'm confident they'll come up with something else...

 

[Flyer1015]

Consolidation
Outsourcing
Downsizing
Cabotage
Another hike in the retirement age

If that don't do it I'm confident they'll come up with something else...

Another terrorist attack
War with Iran
Oil shooting back to $150/barrel (or even higher)
Parking of fleets outright without replacement

There will be NO shortage of pilots any time soon!

 

[rod farva]

Another terrorist attack
War with Iran
Oil shooting back to $150/barrel (or even higher)
Parking of fleets outright without replacement

There will be NO shortage of pilots any time soon!

Don't forget flowthroughs, military guys, etc

 

[RJLoser]

Question: those of you who bad mouth the profession and say there is no future...why does your dumba$$ stick around? Anyone?

 

[Flyer1015]

I haven't badmouthed this profession, I do love what I do. But I'm still not buying into this whole "Pilot shortageeee!" that people think is coming. The reasons against it have already been mentioned above.

 

[pilotyip]

I haven't badmouthed this profession, I do love what I do. But I'm still not buying into this whole "Pilot shortageeee!" that people think is coming. The reasons against it have already been mentioned above.

It is already here on the lower end of the business

 

[8sugarsugar]

It is already here on the lower end of the business

and that's where it will stay

 

[Flyer1015]

It is already here on the lower end of the business

Of course, because no one wants a regional job paying crap wages. The majors and legacies will never have problems finding their pilots. Between regionals, corporate, military, charters, etc, there will be no shortage. Hell, CitationAir just announced belly up for its pilots. As more carriers continue to fail, there will always be plenty of pilots available.

 

[CaribPilot]

The numbers and FACTS are there. Retirements are gonna be through the roof, & pilot training is at an all time low, its not hard to figure out

All these other 'reasons' are speculative booty chatter and have not come to pass.

Speculation vs Facts. Point Period ______

 

[BrickTop]

Some of you clearly have not seen the sheer amount of retirements that are coming up.

This is just for Delta, Unical, & AMR...add on everyone else...and you have a sh*t storm brewing.

2013- 695
2014- 892
2015- 939
2016- 964
2017- 1110
2018- 1258
2019- 1449
2020- 1653
2021- 1957
2022- 2016
2023- 2108
2024- 2047
2025- 2081
2026- 2011
2027- 1780
2028- 1767
2029- 1654
2030- 1240
2031- 975

If you actually beleive carriers will replace EVERY position as it becomes vacant, you have much to learn about this industry. There has been a shortage prediction for nearly 40 years. Every decade the dynamic is changed by the morphing nature of the industry. I.E. consolidation, bankruptcy, furlough, capacity reduction, etc. The future will continue to bring forms of labor reduction management that will consistently offset any impending need for hiring. I assure you there will NEVER be a shortage of pilots. Like today everyone of us were young and naive to this industry and it's promised future. Educating the aspiring youth is the only means to raise awareness and detour applicants from the lowest livable sector of the position. There will always be a swimming pool of applicants to fill a bath tub sized position.

 

[pilotyip]

and that's where it will stay

I understand it is in Asia and the Middle east also, is that part of the lower end?

 

[NEDude]

The "shortage" is a global shortage. Looking at individual markets, such as the United States, one can argue the shortage will be minor. But on a global scale we are already seeing it. The massive growth of the Asian markets, combined with large retirements in U.S. legacy carriers, and the global slowdown in pilot training are creating a perfect storm. Delta, United and the like will NEVER have issues filling their seats. But LCCs and regional carriers may have issues. China and the middle east are downright desperate right now. Just look a the 50% and greater growth in contract salaries in just the past two years alone. Now the PIC time in aircraft type is going away - if you have any Boeing PIC time, 747 and 777 jobs are out there. A320 PIC time? Hinan Airlines has the option of an A330 captain spot based in Seattle making $200,000/yr AFTER taxes.

 

[20sx]

How about overseas jobs for a type rated CRJ pilot but with less than a thousand TPIC?

The "shortage" is a global shortage. Looking at individual markets, such as the United States, one can argue the shortage will be minor. But on a global scale we are already seeing it. The massive growth of the Asian markets, combined with large retirements in U.S. legacy carriers, and the global slowdown in pilot training are creating a perfect storm. Delta, United and the like will NEVER have issues filling their seats. But LCCs and regional carriers may have issues. China and the middle east are downright desperate right now. Just look a the 50% and greater growth in contract salaries in just the past two years alone. Now the PIC time in aircraft type is going away - if you have any Boeing PIC time, 747 and 777 jobs are out there. A320 PIC time? Hinan Airlines has the option of an A330 captain spot based in Seattle making $200,000/yr AFTER taxes.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

How about overseas jobs for a type rated CRJ pilot but with less than a thousand TPIC?

Rickshaw driver in Bangkok, must be willing to do unmentionable things for tips, so yes you qualify!

 

[20sx]

Is it that obvious that since I was an airline pilot I'm willing to do unmentionable things for money)

Rickshaw driver in Bangkok, must be willing to do unmentionable things for tips, so yes you qualify!

 

[princeton]

How about overseas jobs for a type rated CRJ pilot but with less than a thousand TPIC?

Don't know CRJ but new Captains at XJT (ERJ) have been getting jobs in China (supposedly $120.000/yr to start + bonus)

http://www.wasinc.aero/Jobs/ViewJob.aspx?id=635

and at Qatar - talked to one girl that just left for there this week

(and of course JetBlue etc. that have been hiring for a while)

 

[St. Nic]

Guess im lucky. Make over $100k, ski 3-4 days a week in the winter. On the road bike in the summer.. Live in base... I have lots of friends that chased the dream (United, DAL ect..) and have had bad luck.. I would love to think that i could have a chance at "the dream". But for now giving up alot, and taking a chance at that is not on the top of my list.. I hope things change.

Your days are numbered

 

[HalinTexas]

I don't buy the long range predictions of pilot shortage. I was in China last year. I have many friends in Asia and India. Yes there is a shortage of pilots now, namely PICs with time, but that won't last. The Chinese and Indians have lots of pilots in the stream, but very, very few with any experience. That's where the expats come in. I was told by one of the Chinese captains that they didn't think they'd need many expats beyond 2016. If you look at the Asian recruiting websites, there are more DEC jobs than FO jobs.

To put a different perspective. China is choking, figuratively. Their GDP growth rate is below 10% for 2 years running, and it is doubtful that it will increase much. There is growing middle and upper class willing to spend money. However, they want more, and it's not coming fast enough. The government under Hu is quelling decent. We'll have to wait and see if Xi fares better. If you've flown much in China you'll find that airspace is limited. Airliners routinely fly in the lower flight levels. The military controls ALL of the airspace, and I doubt they'll give that up. It's a similar story in India, but more corrupt.

In spite of all that, opportunities are better overseas in the near term. I don't think there will ever be a pilot shortage in the US. Only a shortage of pilots willing to work for poverty level wages.

 

[flyboyike]

The government under Hu is quelling decent.

I'm guessing what they're actually quelling is dissent.

 

[HalinTexas]

I'm guessing what they're actually quelling is dissent.

sarkasum dudent bekum u

 

[Dumb Pilot]

The latest development on this international demand for pilots is that Emirates just announced that they will hire DEC's again, interesting times indeed.

 

[pilotyip]

The latest development on this international demand for pilots is that Emirates just announced that they will hire DEC's again, interesting times indeed.

What is a DEC?

 

[Jetjockey]

DEC= Direct Entry Captain