Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

8sugarsugar

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Yes, the legacies will have massive retirements, but won't hire to replace them. In 10 years time, you will see the legacies only flying widebody and all the narrow body flying being outsourced to the Skywests and pinnacles. Sure, there will be tons of hiring at those levels, but at low wages. RyanAir is already paying its 737-800 FO's about $27,000/year and mngt in USA is foaming at the mouth to declare bnkrupt and break the contracts.

after the AMR bankruptcy, you will see the beginning of the end. Contracts will get broken and Eagle will be flying A-320s in a couple years.

So Majors only flying wide body int'l? Qantas did the exact same thing, outsourced the narrow body, but now the Emirates' of the world are destroying Qantas. So damn...a canary in the coal mine for Major's?

So what do you do? What about UPS and FedEx? They have a lot of retirements too, but in 20 years you'll see pilotless cargo planes.

merry christmas
 

Max Q

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If there is no prospect of a better future on the horizon, the regionals are no longer worth it. How many others think this way? The numbers say a lot.
 

amcnd

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If there is no prospect of a better future on the horizon, the regionals are no longer worth it. How many others think this way? The numbers say a lot.
I think the "Pilot shortage" dream. Is just that.. A Dream.. Will the Majors hire? Yes. But will it ever be that "dream job" we all wanted? Good question... Regionals are getting better, you no longer just fly props making $50K max. In the past regionals were stepping stones.. Now you can make over $100k a year and be home more flying a RJ. Better then the prop days. But still not as good as the "dream"... Time will tell...
 

altimaklr

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Companies that outsource the most will also fail in the long run. Look at the AMR numbers, labor is $600m high but they lost $1.1B. Meanwhile Southwest and jetblue continue to do fine. The cost savings of outsourcing regional flying is gone now, labor is a small % of overall cost.
 

CX880

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Yes, the legacies will have massive retirements, but won't hire to replace them. In 10 years time, you will see the legacies only flying widebody and all the narrow body flying being outsourced to the Skywests and pinnacles. Sure, there will be tons of hiring at those levels, but at low wages. RyanAir is already paying its 737-800 FO's about $27,000/year and mngt in USA is foaming at the mouth to declare bnkrupt and break the contracts.

after the AMR bankruptcy, you will see the beginning of the end. Contracts will get broken and Eagle will be flying A-320s in a couple years.

So Majors only flying wide body int'l? Qantas did the exact same thing, outsourced the narrow body, but now the Emirates' of the world are destroying Qantas. So damn...a canary in the coal mine for Major's?

So what do you do? What about UPS and FedEx? They have a lot of retirements too, but in 20 years you'll see pilotless cargo planes.

merry christmas
I think your right. You lost me on pilotless cargo planes tho.
 

say again

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I'm starting to turn blue....
 

Max Q

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I think the "Pilot shortage" dream. Is just that.. A Dream.. Will the Majors hire? Yes. But will it ever be that "dream job" we all wanted? Good question... Regionals are getting better, you no longer just fly props making $50K max. In the past regionals were stepping stones.. Now you can make over $100k a year and be home more flying a RJ. Better then the prop days. But still not as good as the "dream"... Time will tell...
You don't make over $100k a year at MY company without knocking years off of your life. You're right, time will tell. You say the kids will line up to make a career out of flying 737's for peanuts at a regional, I say the kids are smarter than you think.
 

OPECJet

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The "pilot shortage" will be here when pilots who aren't flying start getting drafted into the airlines rather than hired.
 

amcnd

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Guess im lucky. Make over $100k, ski 3-4 days a week in the winter. On the road bike in the summer.. Live in base... I have lots of friends that chased the dream (United, DAL ect..) and have had bad luck.. I would love to think that i could have a chance at "the dream". But for now giving up alot, and taking a chance at that is not on the top of my list.. I hope things change.
 

Amish RakeFight

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There will always be people willing to fly a plane for very little money. Many of them have families with money to begin with, if not an insane love of being around planes. Flying aside, there are plenty of people who run businesses, botiques or some other small enterprise without turning much of a profit. It usually involves a trust fund or family money to make the ends meet. The occupation itself is not a means for subsistence.
 

goahead

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Wrong, it'll be here and the biggest prob is gonna be replacing the folks at the regional level once we're all gone.
 

amcnd

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Yea your lucky. Most of us aren't.
I spent years in "Regional hell" took 15 years to get were im at. and sometimes it still sucks..So I do share the pain.. Good luck.
 

Fly-By-Cable

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There will always be people willing to fly a plane for very little money. Many of them have families with money to begin with, if not an insane love of being around planes. Flying aside, there are plenty of people who run businesses, botiques or some other small enterprise without turning much of a profit. It usually involves a trust fund or family money to make the ends meet. The occupation itself is not a means for subsistence.
Also, you have to keep in mind that obtaining your pilot certifications and getting hired at a regional is much easier today than in the past. Designated examiners push people through all the time, I think those of us that have been around awhile know this. If they start failing folks who shouldn't pass, they won't be getting called as often by other students. You better believe that the DE won't part with $400+/hr over an unsatisfactory manuever. Not all but they're out there.

I can't tell you how many times I've been asked by some yoyo who can't even speak proper english at the airport, "How long do it take to become a pilot?" I just think to myself, "yup, I'll see you in the crew room soon".
 

RJLoser

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Many people are stuck in a mindset that things won't change bacause of the last 5 years. The number of retirements demands hiring.
 

atpcliff

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U can breathe easy now...the pilot shortage has already started.

cliff
SYD
 

silver02ex

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Also, you have to keep in mind that obtaining your pilot certifications and getting hired at a regional is much easier today than in the past.QUOTE]

I would disagreee. Trying to get a flight trainning loan is so much harder now than before, plus the cost of it. If you look at the amount of commercial certificate that were isse this year is much less than before.
 

Fly-By-Cable

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Also, you have to keep in mind that obtaining your pilot certifications and getting hired at a regional is much easier today than in the past.QUOTE]

I would disagreee. Trying to get a flight trainning loan is so much harder now than before, plus the cost of it. If you look at the amount of commercial certificate that were isse this year is much less than before.[/QU

I'm guessing all the miss spelling is on purpose. I'm not talking about getting loans. I'm talking about getting certificates.
 
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silver02ex

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Also, you have to keep in mind that obtaining your pilot certifications and getting hired at a regional is much easier today than in the past.QUOTE]

I would disagreee. Trying to get a flight trainning loan is so much harder now than before, plus the cost of it. If you look at the amount of commercial certificate that were isse this year is much less than before.[/QU

I'm guessing all the miss spelling is on purpose. I'm not talking about getting loans. I'm talking about getting certificates.
I didn't know this was English 101. I don't usually check it because it's not important.
 
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