Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

[Fly-By-Cable]

I didn't know this was English 101. I don't usually check it because it's not important.

I thought you were making a joke. In my previous post I mentioned that people who can't even speak proper English are becoming pilots. Then you write a post that contains words like "Disgreee, trainning, and isse". See? I thought it was a joke but I guess not.

 

[Scapegoat]

I have been a doubter of the pilot shortage for a while now, (previous posts.) After UAL was thinking about going to a 'name only' operation 4 years ago, im a believer that anything is possible. And dont come back with scope cuz we all know that's a joke. It may take 7 to 10 years but 100 seat RJ's are going to be a reality for domestic operations. The only other way out would be something like Delta buying Pinnacle or United buying Skywest. That could change things but pay rates would still be around $100/ hr for 70 seat captains with 15 years.
Labor is a huge cost for the legacy airlines. The more they can dump either by RFP's or pro-rate bidding, I think they will do it. If im wrong fine but i think i know how this movie will end. Lots of retirements but they will only be replaced at a rate of 1 to 2 (at best!)
My opinion only.....SG

 

[BrickTop]

Lots of retirements but they will only be replaced at a rate of 1 to 2 (at best!)
My opinion only.....SG

Ive been saying it for YEARS. Ignorance however, is littered in epic proportions in pilot mindset. Find a new dream and set new standards. Retirement booms are snake oil.......

 

[slackass]

I didn't know this was English 101. I don't usually check it because it's not important.

Actually, it is important. It is usually a pretty good indicator of how you conduct the rest of your life.

 

[silver02ex]

Actually, it is important. It is usually a pretty good indicator of how you conduct the rest of your life.

Yep, it's very important if I spell check on a message board, because that sets the tone for the rest of my life. I'll keep that in mind.

 

[8sugarsugar]

I think your right. You lost me on pilotless cargo planes tho.

Just imagine a "tech engineer" operating UAV 777's around the globe from the comfort of a control center in Memphis. Mngt's dream, no duty times, no fatigue issues, not paying pilots...think of all the hazmat rules that wouldn't apply...

The tech engineer works an 8 hour shift, operating 10-15 flights at once from cruise. Logs into the aircraft through a simulator and lands it. All data link. Who cares if one crashes in a non-populated area?

When his shift is over, he briefs the replacement and goes home to his wife and kids.

the A-380 already follows a TCAS RA without pilot input.

15-20 years, you see

 

[Trcb777]

Cargo company's are still flying 727's an dc-10's. I'm still waiting for the flying car and I'm still doing Jepp revisions twice a month. Probably 30+ years out....

 

[bri5150]

Yep, it's very important if I spell check on a message board, because that sets the tone for the rest of my life. I'll keep that in mind.

I am not sure how many times this has to be gone over, but using proper spelling and grammar on a forum will gain you more respect for your opinions and what you are trying to say. Is it the end of the world if something is spelled wrong? No. Proper spelling just shows that you are educated and you care about what you are trying to say. Go ahead and pick out some bad grammar in this post if ya like!! I am sure it is there.

 

[bri5150]

Cargo company's are still flying 727's an dc-10's. I'm still waiting for the flying car and I'm still doing Jepp revisions twice a month. Probably 30+ years out....

Not that this is a good scenario either, but they will probably go to single pilot ops well before they go pilotless. How long did it take to go down from 3 pilots to 2?

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Not that this is a good scenario either, but they will probably go to single pilot ops well before they go pilotless. How long did it take to go down from 3 pilots to 2?

I agree, and there are some people that due to lack of social skills are meant to fly by themselves

 

[livin'thesim]

I think that there will always be someone up front, but they will not be a pilot in the traditional sense of the word.

When the data uplink fails, the airborne Qwiky-Mart Worker in Epaulettes will engage the emergency landing button located under the single switch guard on the overhead.

Perhaps they will give him a window to look out of and a coffee maker.

Maybe a tiller and a travel-limited thrust lever to taxi into tight areas.


My suspicion is that we will have an airborne "manager" aboard aircraft that will be be there for the public relations benefit. This will help tamp down public hysteria over unmanned planes raining down on us "when the computer fails".

This individual will have no CA authority. They will be more like a jumpseater - able to take over if the CA (data uplink) and FO (onboard redundancy) dropped dead.

Think "security night guard" and you have an idea of how pleasant the job would be.

 

[Jetjockey]

Just imagine a "tech engineer" operating UAV 777's around the globe from the comfort of a control center in Memphis. Mngt's dream, no duty times, no fatigue issues, not paying pilots...think of all the hazmat rules that wouldn't apply...

The tech engineer works an 8 hour shift, operating 10-15 flights at once from cruise. Logs into the aircraft through a simulator and lands it. All data link. Who cares if one crashes in a non-populated area?

When his shift is over, he briefs the replacement and goes home to his wife and kids.

the A-380 already follows a TCAS RA without pilot input.

15-20 years, you see

When I see locomotive trains crossing the country without railroad engineers, I may start to get concerned. I think pilot-less UAV type airplanes are in the future but further out than 20 years.

 

[Downwind]

When I see locomotive trains crossing the country without railroad engineers, I may start to get concerned. I think pilot-less UAV type airplanes are in the future but further out than 20 years.

Remote control trains have been in operation for over 10 years. With Positive Train Control being implemented crewless through freights are a lot closer than you think.

 

[8sugarsugar]

Remote control trains have been in operation for over 10 years. With Positive Train Control being implemented crewless through freights are a lot closer than you think.

Fred Smith is drooling

 

[woog315]

Remote control trains have been in operation for over 10 years. With Positive Train Control being implemented crewless through freights are a lot closer than you think.

If the computer controlling a remote control train fails in any ways what happens? The train slows to a halt on the tracks. What happens if there is a failure at 35k feet? It'll be a long time before no one is up front in an airplane.

 

[Microclimates]

I agree that taking the long view, eventually there will be pilotless commercial operations. Not soon though. What I am worried about, though, is single pilot ops with an emergency 'on the ground' backup (uplink to the AP from dispatch to monitor an autoland, for example-- in case the single pilot croaks). That could happen at any time, in terms of the technology, and soon enough generally.

Aviation went from 4 crew cockpits after wwii, to 3 crew to 2 crew in the 80s...

 

[Freebrd]

Aviation went from 4 crew cockpits after wwii, to 3 crew to 2 crew in the 80s...

C'mon airplanes have become even easier to fly, more reliable, more automation. Even that PUTZ Jennyleigh can fly one! Do you really think there is a need for a flt engineer in modern aircraft?

 

[doh]

I think that there will always be someone up front, but they will not be a pilot in the traditional sense of the word.

When the data uplink fails, the airborne Qwiky-Mart Worker in Epaulettes will engage the emergency landing button located under the single switch guard on the overhead.

Perhaps they will give him a window to look out of and a coffee maker.

Maybe a tiller and a travel-limited thrust lever to taxi into tight areas.


My suspicion is that we will have an airborne "manager" aboard aircraft that will be be there for the public relations benefit. This will help tamp down publichysteria over unmanned planes raining down on us "when the computer fails".

This individual will have no CA authority. They will be more like a jumpseater - able to take over if the CA (data uplink) and FO (onboard redundancy) dropped dead.

Think "security night guard" and you have an idea of how pleasant the job would be.

My suspicion is that the pax will say, "I'm a little concerned about not having a pilot on board, but my ticket was $5 cheaper..."

 

[acaTerry]

If the computer controlling a remote control train fails in any ways what happens? The train slows to a halt on the tracks. What happens if there is a failure at 35k feet? It'll be a long time before no one is up front in an airplane.

That darned 3rd dimension....

 

[Amish RakeFight]

Peanuts are cheap!

There will always be a two man crew. They just might be a lot hairer than the current ones.

http://rookery.s3.amazonaws.com/1099500/1099557_cfd3_625x1000.jpg


:smash: