Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

[livin'thesim]

Maybe I'll just any hotties onboard that I am the inflatable autopilot.

 

[suupah]

I agree, and there are some people that due to lack of social skills are meant to fly by themselves

ya butt goink frum 3 pilyts to 2 is diferint then goin frum 2 pilyts to 1. thats like goin frum 2 enjins to 1 on an aerliner.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

I agree that taking the long view, eventually there will be pilotless commercial operations. Not soon though. What I am worried about, though, is single pilot ops with an emergency 'on the ground' backup (uplink to the AP from dispatch to monitor an autoland, for example-- in case the single pilot croaks). That could happen at any time, in terms of the technology, and soon enough generally.

Aviation went from 4 crew cockpits after wwii, to 3 crew to 2 crew in the 80s...

Agreed. People who say it will never happen lack imagination. Maybe not in the next 50 years, but 500? Yeah. Look back 500 years...lots of crap happened that would "never" happen.

I'd bet 75 years. I'll be gone, but it'll happen eventually.

 

[8sugarsugar]

Agreed. People who say it will never happen lack imagination. Maybe not in the next 50 years, but 500? Yeah. Look back 500 years...lots of crap happened that would "never" happen.

I'd bet 75 years. I'll be gone, but it'll happen eventually.

75 years from now our grand children will be fighting with sticks and stones and the world population will be under 1 billion

 

[8sugarsugar]

and the Douglas products will still be flying

 

[livin'thesim]

75 years from now our grand children will be fighting with sticks and stones and the world population will be under 1 billion

Interesting perspective.

Many people don't think this could happen, but hey - Babylon and Rome both were highly advanced civilizations that eventually collapsed under their own weight.

Very plausible outcome.

 

[NEDude]

A friend who is a DE went to an FAA conference earlier this year and said that in 2010, the number of student pilot certificates issued was 15% of what it was in 2000. Not down 15%, down TO 15% of what it was ten years earlier. The cost of flight training has skyrocketed and the availability of financing has dwindled. The tech savvy kids graduating from high school and college have seen what this industry is like and the pay they can expect and are turned off.

I think a real pilot shortage is coming and it is starting to manifest itself in other parts of the world. Three to four years ago you could find contract jobs in Asia and the middle east paying $9,000 - $10,000 per month for an A320 captain. Now those same jobs are often paying in excess of $15,000 per month and growing ever higher. Even some of the European LCCs are starting to recruit through contract agencies - EasyJet is looking for JAA licensed/typed A320 FOs through Parc. Here in the U.S. I do not think the legacy carriers will have too much trouble filling their flight decks, but the LCCs and regionals will most likely have issues in the not too distant future.

 

[Propsync]

A friend who is a DE went to an FAA conference earlier this year and said that in 2010, the number of student pilot certificates issued was 15% of what it was in 2000. Not down 15%, down TO 15% of what it was ten years earlier. The cost of flight training has skyrocketed and the availability of financing has dwindled. The tech savvy kids graduating from high school and college have seen what this industry is like and the pay they can expect and are turned off.

I get what you are saying. I guess I mostly agree. I don't think there are many in that 15% are just looking to get a private license. The 15% is probably 80-90% collegiate. That is the group that makes up the majority of professional pilots these days. The (very small) university I graduated from has been having no problem keeping the program at its capacity. With the way things are, I wouldn't imagine many people off of the street are willing to go for it.
We don't have many small airport FI's that would be on this site to let us know what is going on. I'd imagine many FI's have full time jobs elsewhere, and just instruct a few on the side.
As for the future, you'd think something would have to give. But it won't. As long as nobody is ordering narrowbody aircraft, majors will get smaller as regionals will grow. As retirements are starting up again, majors are just parking aircraft. No biggie, nobody else is getting furloughed, in the minds of ALPA. Relaxing scope is fine, the majors aren't growing or full-replacing aging aircraft anyway (1:1). Let the regionals screw with everything. Set the schedule and hold the airline instead of the pilots accountable. If we all thought the regional lifestyle was nomadic before, just wait. We've seen the start of merger/acquisitions at the regional. Sometimes the best will get paired with the worst. Sometimes the worst will get a windfall.
Bottom line is that many more regional pilots will be fighting for a continuously smaller major airline job opportunity. The job shortage will be at the regional level, there will never be a shortage at a major from here out.

 

[Jetjockey]

A friend who is a DE went to an FAA conference earlier this year and said that in 2010, the number of student pilot certificates issued was 15% of what it was in 2000. Not down 15%, down TO 15% of what it was ten years earlier. The cost of flight training has skyrocketed and the availability of financing has dwindled. The tech savvy kids graduating from high school and college have seen what this industry is like and the pay they can expect and are turned off.

I think a real pilot shortage is coming and it is starting to manifest itself in other parts of the world. Three to four years ago you could find contract jobs in Asia and the middle east paying $9,000 - $10,000 per month for an A320 captain. Now those same jobs are often paying in excess of $15,000 per month and growing ever higher. Even some of the European LCCs are starting to recruit through contract agencies - EasyJet is looking for JAA licensed/typed A320 FOs through Parc. Here in the U.S. I do not think the legacy carriers will have too much trouble filling their flight decks, but the LCCs and regionals will most likely have issues in the not too distant future.

Agreed. What bright college kid with real career choices would plunk down all that money for college and flight training for a decade of poverty? I know if I were 18 again, my career path would not involve airlines or flying.

 

[johnpeace]

Agreed. What bright college kid with real career choices would plunk down all that money for college and flight training for a decade of poverty?

The ones that are too dumb to say 'no' to the allure of an aviation career.

And there are plenty of those...this site's membership included.

Remember that 20-somethings don't have the benefit of hindsight and the pilot personality is inherently suspicious of anyone else's advice.

Round and round we go...