Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

[livin'thesim]

75 years from now our grand children will be fighting with sticks and stones and the world population will be under 1 billion

Interesting perspective.

Many people don't think this could happen, but hey - Babylon and Rome both were highly advanced civilizations that eventually collapsed under their own weight.

Very plausible outcome.

 

[NEDude]

A friend who is a DE went to an FAA conference earlier this year and said that in 2010, the number of student pilot certificates issued was 15% of what it was in 2000. Not down 15%, down TO 15% of what it was ten years earlier. The cost of flight training has skyrocketed and the availability of financing has dwindled. The tech savvy kids graduating from high school and college have seen what this industry is like and the pay they can expect and are turned off.

I think a real pilot shortage is coming and it is starting to manifest itself in other parts of the world. Three to four years ago you could find contract jobs in Asia and the middle east paying $9,000 - $10,000 per month for an A320 captain. Now those same jobs are often paying in excess of $15,000 per month and growing ever higher. Even some of the European LCCs are starting to recruit through contract agencies - EasyJet is looking for JAA licensed/typed A320 FOs through Parc. Here in the U.S. I do not think the legacy carriers will have too much trouble filling their flight decks, but the LCCs and regionals will most likely have issues in the not too distant future.

 

[Propsync]

A friend who is a DE went to an FAA conference earlier this year and said that in 2010, the number of student pilot certificates issued was 15% of what it was in 2000. Not down 15%, down TO 15% of what it was ten years earlier. The cost of flight training has skyrocketed and the availability of financing has dwindled. The tech savvy kids graduating from high school and college have seen what this industry is like and the pay they can expect and are turned off.

I get what you are saying. I guess I mostly agree. I don't think there are many in that 15% are just looking to get a private license. The 15% is probably 80-90% collegiate. That is the group that makes up the majority of professional pilots these days. The (very small) university I graduated from has been having no problem keeping the program at its capacity. With the way things are, I wouldn't imagine many people off of the street are willing to go for it.
We don't have many small airport FI's that would be on this site to let us know what is going on. I'd imagine many FI's have full time jobs elsewhere, and just instruct a few on the side.
As for the future, you'd think something would have to give. But it won't. As long as nobody is ordering narrowbody aircraft, majors will get smaller as regionals will grow. As retirements are starting up again, majors are just parking aircraft. No biggie, nobody else is getting furloughed, in the minds of ALPA. Relaxing scope is fine, the majors aren't growing or full-replacing aging aircraft anyway (1:1). Let the regionals screw with everything. Set the schedule and hold the airline instead of the pilots accountable. If we all thought the regional lifestyle was nomadic before, just wait. We've seen the start of merger/acquisitions at the regional. Sometimes the best will get paired with the worst. Sometimes the worst will get a windfall.
Bottom line is that many more regional pilots will be fighting for a continuously smaller major airline job opportunity. The job shortage will be at the regional level, there will never be a shortage at a major from here out.

 

[Jetjockey]

A friend who is a DE went to an FAA conference earlier this year and said that in 2010, the number of student pilot certificates issued was 15% of what it was in 2000. Not down 15%, down TO 15% of what it was ten years earlier. The cost of flight training has skyrocketed and the availability of financing has dwindled. The tech savvy kids graduating from high school and college have seen what this industry is like and the pay they can expect and are turned off.

I think a real pilot shortage is coming and it is starting to manifest itself in other parts of the world. Three to four years ago you could find contract jobs in Asia and the middle east paying $9,000 - $10,000 per month for an A320 captain. Now those same jobs are often paying in excess of $15,000 per month and growing ever higher. Even some of the European LCCs are starting to recruit through contract agencies - EasyJet is looking for JAA licensed/typed A320 FOs through Parc. Here in the U.S. I do not think the legacy carriers will have too much trouble filling their flight decks, but the LCCs and regionals will most likely have issues in the not too distant future.

Agreed. What bright college kid with real career choices would plunk down all that money for college and flight training for a decade of poverty? I know if I were 18 again, my career path would not involve airlines or flying.

 

[johnpeace]

Agreed. What bright college kid with real career choices would plunk down all that money for college and flight training for a decade of poverty?

The ones that are too dumb to say 'no' to the allure of an aviation career.

And there are plenty of those...this site's membership included.

Remember that 20-somethings don't have the benefit of hindsight and the pilot personality is inherently suspicious of anyone else's advice.

Round and round we go...

 

[atpcliff]

As for the future, you'd think something would have to give. But it won't. As long as nobody is ordering narrowbody aircraft, majors will get smaller as regionals will grow. As retirements are starting up again, majors are just parking aircraft. No biggie, nobody else is getting furloughed, in the minds of ALPA. Relaxing scope is fine, the majors aren't growing or full-replacing aging aircraft anyway (1:1). Let the regionals screw with everything. Set the schedule and hold the airline instead of the pilots accountable. If we all thought the regional lifestyle was nomadic before, just wait. We've seen the start of merger/acquisitions at the regional. Sometimes the best will get paired with the worst. Sometimes the worst will get a windfall.
Bottom line is that many more regional pilots will be fighting for a continuously smaller major airline job opportunity. The job shortage will be at the regional level, there will never be a shortage at a major from here out.

You are restricting your view to the US, and even so it is VERY pessimistic. Luckily for us, pilots and airlines are a GLOBAL phenomenon. If Emirates hires a US pilot, then one less US pilot is available to hire by UAL/AA/DAL, etc. The "Majors" are not parking aircraft. Emirates, Qatar, Ethiopian, Kenya Airways, KAL, Cathay, ALL the Chinese airlines, etc., etc. are ADDING aircraft at a very high rate.

Just talked to some guys who said they knew people at Emirates, and the EK guy said by 2014 EK will NOT be able to staff the -777, no matter what they do...it is already too late to solve their manning problems on that airframe. So, even if the US job market does not improve significantly on its own, it won't matter, as overseas airlines will suck up a LOT of US pilots, creating a shortage here in the US.

cliff
RMS

 

[pilotyip]

Agreed. What bright college kid with real career choices would plunk down all that money for college and flight training for a decade of poverty? I know if I were 18 again, my career path would not involve airlines or flying.

The college degree will mean little in the future hiring because of the need for experience will over ride checking the box in the lower left corner. Look at a lot of the jobs being posted right now, say college degree preferred, will wave requirement with equal life experience. And we all know it has nothing to do with flying an airplane.

 

[atpcliff]

i just got called for a job i applied for 2 yrs ago. That is the 2nd time it's happpened in the last month.

cliff
FRA

 

[fam62c]

As long as age 65 doesn't get pushed out further and the economy doesn't get signifiicantly worse retirements will create a lot of vacancies and drive replacement hiring, this is unavoidable. The combination of age 65 and a huge recession (actually two major recessions within 6 years of one another) created the perfect storm for stagnation. If age 65 had never happened there would be significant hiring right now even with the weak economy and high fuel prices.

I don't think we will really start to see much hiring flow until 2014 or so but from there things should begin to ramp up quickly. What I don't think we will see, or at least not for many years, will be a "shortage" of qualified applicants for the best airline and corporate jobs out there. The shortage will start where it always does with the foreign operators (already happening) charter companies and regionals, they will end up desperate to get anybody in the cockpit who will stay for long. I think that people in their 20's who are just getting started in the profession should see pretty rapid career advancement in, let's say, 2015 and beyond. Timing is everything in this industry and if you are lucky enough to start your career at the beginning of a sustained hiring wave you can still do very well. Things are going to look a lot different a few years from now and should stay good for a decade or more.

I know it's tough for a lot of pilots trapped with no movement in crummy jobs (and pilots still on the street) and it seems like things will never get better, I've been there. But I have seen very significant hiring waves for short periods of time in the last 20 years so it can and does happen. I think that what we will see in the next 10-15 years starting in 2014 or so will be the most significant hiring boom ever in the industry. FWIW, if I could look back over the last 20 years and magically pick a time to be young and just finishing up my ratings the time would be now. I think career progression for young pilots will go from the slowest we have seen to the most rapid we have seen in the next five years. I could be wrong but the retirement numbers look very convincing, they are huge. Demand should start to increase right as supplies of new pilots is bottoming out, hopefully this will have a positive effect on working conditions and wages as regionals have to start to compete for pilots. Good luck to all.

 

[NEDude]

I get what you are saying. I guess I mostly agree. I don't think there are many in that 15% are just looking to get a private license. The 15% is probably 80-90% collegiate. That is the group that makes up the majority of professional pilots these days. The (very small) university I graduated from has been having no problem keeping the program at its capacity. With the way things are, I wouldn't imagine many people off of the street are willing to go for it.
We don't have many small airport FI's that would be on this site to let us know what is going on. I'd imagine many FI's have full time jobs elsewhere, and just instruct a few on the side.
As for the future, you'd think something would have to give. But it won't. As long as nobody is ordering narrowbody aircraft, majors will get smaller as regionals will grow. As retirements are starting up again, majors are just parking aircraft. No biggie, nobody else is getting furloughed, in the minds of ALPA. Relaxing scope is fine, the majors aren't growing or full-replacing aging aircraft anyway (1:1). Let the regionals screw with everything. Set the schedule and hold the airline instead of the pilots accountable. If we all thought the regional lifestyle was nomadic before, just wait. We've seen the start of merger/acquisitions at the regional. Sometimes the best will get paired with the worst. Sometimes the worst will get a windfall.
Bottom line is that many more regional pilots will be fighting for a continuously smaller major airline job opportunity. The job shortage will be at the regional level, there will never be a shortage at a major from here out.

Agreed about the legacy majors, I don't think (at this point) they will have any issues filling their flight decks. The regional and LCCs will however.

As for colleges, some flight programs may be doing okay, but not all. Daniel Webster College just killed its flight program (although due in part to being bought by a for-profit degree mill) and other major ones are suffering declining enrollment. A co-worker who attended a major university flight program said that back in the 1980s it was very competitive to try and land one of the limited annual spots for the program. Now they are running at less than half capacity.

 

[NEDude]

UAVs have a terrible safety record. There is a LONG way to go before we get to that point. Look at how Iran captured that UAV. If we turn airliners over to a similar system, imagine the field day terrorists could have. My guess is the security required for remote controlled airliners will be more expensive than pilots.

 

[NEDude]

You are restricting your view to the US, and even so it is VERY pessimistic. Luckily for us, pilots and airlines are a GLOBAL phenomenon. If Emirates hires a US pilot, then one less US pilot is available to hire by UAL/AA/DAL, etc. The "Majors" are not parking aircraft. Emirates, Qatar, Ethiopian, Kenya Airways, KAL, Cathay, ALL the Chinese airlines, etc., etc. are ADDING aircraft at a very high rate.

Just talked to some guys who said they knew people at Emirates, and the EK guy said by 2014 EK will NOT be able to staff the -777, no matter what they do...it is already too late to solve their manning problems on that airframe. So, even if the US job market does not improve significantly on its own, it won't matter, as overseas airlines will suck up a LOT of US pilots, creating a shortage here in the US.

cliff
RMS

EK needs to allow outstation basing/commuting options. I would do EK in a heartbeat if I didn't have to take my family to the sand pit. For me personally it doesn't even have to have a U.S. base, there are several European cities that would work (yes I have the right to live and work there).

 

[crxpilot]

You are restricting your view to the US, and even so it is VERY pessimistic. Luckily for us, pilots and airlines are a GLOBAL phenomenon. If Emirates hires a US pilot, then one less US pilot is available to hire by UAL/AA/DAL, etc. The "Majors" are not parking aircraft. Emirates, Qatar, Ethiopian, Kenya Airways, KAL, Cathay, ALL the Chinese airlines, etc., etc. are ADDING aircraft at a very high rate.

Just talked to some guys who said they knew people at Emirates, and the EK guy said by 2014 EK will NOT be able to staff the -777, no matter what they do...it is already too late to solve their manning problems on that airframe. So, even if the US job market does not improve significantly on its own, it won't matter, as overseas airlines will suck up a LOT of US pilots, creating a shortage here in the US.

cliff
RMS

I dont buy that statement cliff. However, with the laws of supply and demand as they are, I am sure they will be able to $weeten the pot by however much they need to in order to staff their planes!

 

[Flyer1015]

I dont buy that statement cliff. However, with the laws of supply and demand as they are, I am sure they will be able to $weeten the pot by however much they need to in order to staff their planes!

Of course not, they'll do what every other carrier does: drop the mins. Far cheaper that way rather than improve the employment package!

 

[relief tube]

You say the kids will line up to make a career out of flying 737's for peanuts at a regional, I say the kids are smarter than you think.

Sorry- it's already here. Have you seen Virgin America Rates? Fo's top out at less than 90!