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Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

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8sugarsugar

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 15, 2007
Posts
306
Yes, the legacies will have massive retirements, but won't hire to replace them. In 10 years time, you will see the legacies only flying widebody and all the narrow body flying being outsourced to the Skywests and pinnacles. Sure, there will be tons of hiring at those levels, but at low wages. RyanAir is already paying its 737-800 FO's about $27,000/year and mngt in USA is foaming at the mouth to declare bnkrupt and break the contracts.

after the AMR bankruptcy, you will see the beginning of the end. Contracts will get broken and Eagle will be flying A-320s in a couple years.

So Majors only flying wide body int'l? Qantas did the exact same thing, outsourced the narrow body, but now the Emirates' of the world are destroying Qantas. So damn...a canary in the coal mine for Major's?

So what do you do? What about UPS and FedEx? They have a lot of retirements too, but in 20 years you'll see pilotless cargo planes.

merry christmas
 
If there is no prospect of a better future on the horizon, the regionals are no longer worth it. How many others think this way? The numbers say a lot.
 
If there is no prospect of a better future on the horizon, the regionals are no longer worth it. How many others think this way? The numbers say a lot.

I think the "Pilot shortage" dream. Is just that.. A Dream.. Will the Majors hire? Yes. But will it ever be that "dream job" we all wanted? Good question... Regionals are getting better, you no longer just fly props making $50K max. In the past regionals were stepping stones.. Now you can make over $100k a year and be home more flying a RJ. Better then the prop days. But still not as good as the "dream"... Time will tell...
 
Companies that outsource the most will also fail in the long run. Look at the AMR numbers, labor is $600m high but they lost $1.1B. Meanwhile Southwest and jetblue continue to do fine. The cost savings of outsourcing regional flying is gone now, labor is a small % of overall cost.
 
Yes, the legacies will have massive retirements, but won't hire to replace them. In 10 years time, you will see the legacies only flying widebody and all the narrow body flying being outsourced to the Skywests and pinnacles. Sure, there will be tons of hiring at those levels, but at low wages. RyanAir is already paying its 737-800 FO's about $27,000/year and mngt in USA is foaming at the mouth to declare bnkrupt and break the contracts.

after the AMR bankruptcy, you will see the beginning of the end. Contracts will get broken and Eagle will be flying A-320s in a couple years.

So Majors only flying wide body int'l? Qantas did the exact same thing, outsourced the narrow body, but now the Emirates' of the world are destroying Qantas. So damn...a canary in the coal mine for Major's?

So what do you do? What about UPS and FedEx? They have a lot of retirements too, but in 20 years you'll see pilotless cargo planes.

merry christmas

I think your right. You lost me on pilotless cargo planes tho.
 
I think the "Pilot shortage" dream. Is just that.. A Dream.. Will the Majors hire? Yes. But will it ever be that "dream job" we all wanted? Good question... Regionals are getting better, you no longer just fly props making $50K max. In the past regionals were stepping stones.. Now you can make over $100k a year and be home more flying a RJ. Better then the prop days. But still not as good as the "dream"... Time will tell...

You don't make over $100k a year at MY company without knocking years off of your life. You're right, time will tell. You say the kids will line up to make a career out of flying 737's for peanuts at a regional, I say the kids are smarter than you think.
 
The "pilot shortage" will be here when pilots who aren't flying start getting drafted into the airlines rather than hired.
 
Guess im lucky. Make over $100k, ski 3-4 days a week in the winter. On the road bike in the summer.. Live in base... I have lots of friends that chased the dream (United, DAL ect..) and have had bad luck.. I would love to think that i could have a chance at "the dream". But for now giving up alot, and taking a chance at that is not on the top of my list.. I hope things change.
 

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