Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

[pilotyip]

and that's where it will stay

I understand it is in Asia and the Middle east also, is that part of the lower end?

 

[NEDude]

The "shortage" is a global shortage. Looking at individual markets, such as the United States, one can argue the shortage will be minor. But on a global scale we are already seeing it. The massive growth of the Asian markets, combined with large retirements in U.S. legacy carriers, and the global slowdown in pilot training are creating a perfect storm. Delta, United and the like will NEVER have issues filling their seats. But LCCs and regional carriers may have issues. China and the middle east are downright desperate right now. Just look a the 50% and greater growth in contract salaries in just the past two years alone. Now the PIC time in aircraft type is going away - if you have any Boeing PIC time, 747 and 777 jobs are out there. A320 PIC time? Hinan Airlines has the option of an A330 captain spot based in Seattle making $200,000/yr AFTER taxes.

 

[20sx]

How about overseas jobs for a type rated CRJ pilot but with less than a thousand TPIC?

The "shortage" is a global shortage. Looking at individual markets, such as the United States, one can argue the shortage will be minor. But on a global scale we are already seeing it. The massive growth of the Asian markets, combined with large retirements in U.S. legacy carriers, and the global slowdown in pilot training are creating a perfect storm. Delta, United and the like will NEVER have issues filling their seats. But LCCs and regional carriers may have issues. China and the middle east are downright desperate right now. Just look a the 50% and greater growth in contract salaries in just the past two years alone. Now the PIC time in aircraft type is going away - if you have any Boeing PIC time, 747 and 777 jobs are out there. A320 PIC time? Hinan Airlines has the option of an A330 captain spot based in Seattle making $200,000/yr AFTER taxes.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

How about overseas jobs for a type rated CRJ pilot but with less than a thousand TPIC?

Rickshaw driver in Bangkok, must be willing to do unmentionable things for tips, so yes you qualify!

 

[20sx]

Is it that obvious that since I was an airline pilot I'm willing to do unmentionable things for money)

Rickshaw driver in Bangkok, must be willing to do unmentionable things for tips, so yes you qualify!

 

[princeton]

How about overseas jobs for a type rated CRJ pilot but with less than a thousand TPIC?

Don't know CRJ but new Captains at XJT (ERJ) have been getting jobs in China (supposedly $120.000/yr to start + bonus)

http://www.wasinc.aero/Jobs/ViewJob.aspx?id=635

and at Qatar - talked to one girl that just left for there this week

(and of course JetBlue etc. that have been hiring for a while)

 

[St. Nic]

Guess im lucky. Make over $100k, ski 3-4 days a week in the winter. On the road bike in the summer.. Live in base... I have lots of friends that chased the dream (United, DAL ect..) and have had bad luck.. I would love to think that i could have a chance at "the dream". But for now giving up alot, and taking a chance at that is not on the top of my list.. I hope things change.

Your days are numbered

 

[HalinTexas]

I don't buy the long range predictions of pilot shortage. I was in China last year. I have many friends in Asia and India. Yes there is a shortage of pilots now, namely PICs with time, but that won't last. The Chinese and Indians have lots of pilots in the stream, but very, very few with any experience. That's where the expats come in. I was told by one of the Chinese captains that they didn't think they'd need many expats beyond 2016. If you look at the Asian recruiting websites, there are more DEC jobs than FO jobs.

To put a different perspective. China is choking, figuratively. Their GDP growth rate is below 10% for 2 years running, and it is doubtful that it will increase much. There is growing middle and upper class willing to spend money. However, they want more, and it's not coming fast enough. The government under Hu is quelling decent. We'll have to wait and see if Xi fares better. If you've flown much in China you'll find that airspace is limited. Airliners routinely fly in the lower flight levels. The military controls ALL of the airspace, and I doubt they'll give that up. It's a similar story in India, but more corrupt.

In spite of all that, opportunities are better overseas in the near term. I don't think there will ever be a pilot shortage in the US. Only a shortage of pilots willing to work for poverty level wages.

 

[flyboyike]

The government under Hu is quelling decent.

I'm guessing what they're actually quelling is dissent.

 

[HalinTexas]

I'm guessing what they're actually quelling is dissent.

sarkasum dudent bekum u

 

[Dumb Pilot]

The latest development on this international demand for pilots is that Emirates just announced that they will hire DEC's again, interesting times indeed.

 

[pilotyip]

The latest development on this international demand for pilots is that Emirates just announced that they will hire DEC's again, interesting times indeed.

What is a DEC?

 

[Jetjockey]

DEC= Direct Entry Captain