Delta TA on SCOPE

[General Lee]

FYI Currently you have outsourced:

348 50 Seaters
102 65-69 Seaters
153 76 Seaters
Total: 603 Aircraft / 35862 seats

Proposed outsourcing:
125 "70 seaters" (using 67 as an average again = 8750 seats)
223 76 seaters (16948 seats)
Total: 348 Aircraft / 25698 seats

Total seats go down by about 28%. But, when was the last time you saw a 50 seater running DTW-IAH, SLC-LAX, LGA-ORD, JFK-ORD, or MSP-YVR?

I think if you looked at the average miles flown by the 900/175 you'd see that the seat mile reduction is probably much less than 28%.

So wait, 348 50 seaters will go away? That's A LOT. (the new number will be 125 TOTAL either 50 or 70 seaters I believe. TOTAL) That will happen by 2014. Right now there are already 255 70/76 seaters (153 are 76 seaters). So, that means there are already 102 70 seaters. Add 23 more, and then 70 76 seaters, and get rid of 348 50 seaters. Sounds like a deal. Add 93, subtract 348. That is HUGE. And you don't think ANY of those 70 seaters will fly current 50 seat routes? NONE? Only mainline routes? Remember, you don't get any 76 seaters until mainline gets 717s or new A319s, and then only incrementally. Where will those 117 seat 717s fly if Delta gets them? Probably a lot of LGA and ATL flying. Delta is also getting 27 (?) MD90s this year too, and 100 737-900s starting late this Summer. Sounds like the domestic arena will be full, especially for that MSP to YVR route in the Summer. (maybe you can have it in the Winter when there are less pax anyway. The 739 on it in the Summer will revert to St Thomas nonstop from MSP in the Winter)

Also, I read on another board that any mainline drawdown of mainline planes will also cause a drawdown in DCI numbers. So, they are tied together. You can't just get a bunch of RJs and then park the remaining DC9s or older MD88s, and not add or keep the newer RJs.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

And why can't mainline pilots fly the new ones?

Why can't you fly the 717s? Probably the same reason. Thanks though for maybe giving them up....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Flyer1015]

Am I reading this right, all 50 seater RJs will be gone?

 

[General Lee]

Am I reading this right, all 50 seater RJs will be gone?

If I read the TA correctly (a big IF, but I think I did), it said a TOTAL of 125 50-70 seaters. Then 223 TOTAL 76 seaters. Currently DCI has 255 70/76 seaters, of which 153 are 76 seaters. So, there are 102 or so 70 seaters currently flying. If they choose to keep them all, and 125 total are either 50 or 70 seaters, then that would mean 23 50 seaters left. I don't know which ones Delta would keep, they may keep 125 newer 50 seaters? That could be wrong, but I think the TA said that. I am waiting on a summary from ALPA, it should be out soon.

The TA also stated 35% of all newhires in upcoming classes would come from ALPA DCI carriers.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Bake]

So, Genoyster, How are you voting? I smell kitty cat. Is it coming from your direction?

 

[Jar Jar]

And you don't think ANY of those 70 seaters will fly current 50 seat routes? NONE? Only mainline routes?

I'm sure some will. The number is anyone's guess. But im also sure there will be basically zero 50 seaters going forward. Kinda like there are zero 37 seaters now, even though they are technically permitted.

Delta is also getting 27 (?) MD90s this year too, and 100 737-900s starting late this Summer.

I wouldn't expect all of those for growth. You gotta paint the whole picture, including retiring airframes and aircraft orders that could be swapped to SWA.

Also, I read on another board that any mainline drawdown of mainline planes will also cause a drawdown in DCI numbers. So, they are tied together. You can't just get a bunch of RJs and then park the remaining DC9s or older MD88s, and not add or keep the newer RJs.

I hope you're right!

Also, how many seats is 40% of an airfrance A340? I understand 40% is an improvement, but man thats a lot of outsourcing on the top end - i didn't realize it was that bad.

 

[Jar Jar]

The TA also stated 35% of all newhires in upcoming classes would come from ALPA DCI carriers.

And when you factor the first 28 per class from Compass/Mesaba that pretty much fills that quota for the next 4 years.

 

[General Lee]

Here is a response from someone on the Dalpa internal website talking about Scope issues and this TA. Anyone who frequents that site would recognize him. His first name starts with a J. Anyway, he has some good points about the Scope issues, and it has nothing to do with the payrates which are upsetting to many on here, including me.


"First, under the current agreement the company has the authority to grow the 76 fleet to 256 hulls, under this one they are capped at 223 (153+70)

Second, The company has a financing problem with the 50 seat leases and can park them to lose 100% of potential or keep them and lose less than 100%. There are options where the lessors could take the 50 (losing some income) and replace them with 76's (and insure a longer revenue stream). IOW, the 50 IS going away, we can create an environment to accelerate that fact to our benefit our not. This agreement does...

Third, they can only take advantage of this exchange under 2 simultaneous events. They must FIRST place 1.25 NEW narrow bodies into action for each new swapped 76 AND they must remove 2-3 50's. At that point a snap shot is taken to establish a hard block hour ratio which can not be reduced. As they add more NB, they get more 76 (1.25 to 1) and they remove more 50's, a new more favorable mainline ratio is established. In the end of the day, should they chose to shrink ML for any reason, they will be required to shrink RJ by a greater degree (simple math).

Fourth, should they entertain a furlough, before the first pilot hits the street, they would have to pull 6 seats out or EVERY 76 plane being flown (not one, but ALL)

Fifth, they have finally achieved access to the JV/CS world and are in position to place defined limits."




Whether or not anyone believes this guy, he does bring up some interesting points, and a lot of that will be confirmed in writing when ALPA puts out the "negotiators notepad."



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[nimtz]

Sorry folks, but if you vote this I see us all heavily regretting it within 5 years ie same farking mistake made with the 50 seaters. The fact that my scumbag CEO sent all UAL pilots a letter TODAY telling us that this DAL TA is the new normal says it all about how management feels. Vote this and we ALL will regret it.

And for god sakes GL don't trust any "negotiators notepad". Bullet points sponsored by ALPA lead to numb nuts at CAL approving Contract '02

 

[waveflyer]

Why can't you fly the 717s? Probably the same reason. Thanks though for maybe giving them up....


Bye Bye---General Lee

You know that's a complete dodge-

As I slowly get more educated- this sounds like a lay down for a bit more pay- predictable-
50 seaters and RJs are going away due to economic pressures- and you're allowing them to be replaced with 90 seaters equipped with 76 seats...

But it's still early- I just don't have faith that the d-bag delta professionals aren't about to sellout the industry for a very small pay raise again-

Don't you have a mainline pay rate for 76 seaters? Why set a rate if you give away the flying? Why can't the replacement aircraft flying be done by mainline pilots?

It's pretty simple- it appears that is a non starter and dalpa pilots aren't willing to stand up for it.

Tell me why GL- why MUST it be farmed out. There is a natural, economically driven transition taking place- why not sieze this time to get at least all additional 76 seaters back in the fold?