Comair exit poll

[JI Gone OH]

One smart a!! answer deserves another.

Indeed it does ;-) Nice afternoon....

 

[FDJ2]

Do you understand that there are no minimum fleet guarantees after 2008?

That's an interesting point. I wonder when some of the CRJ50s start coming off of lease? That's a question that would concern me. My guess is shortly after 2008.

JMO, but I suspect CMR will get more 70 seaters regardless of the outcome of this vote, but CMR will eventually start parking a large number of 50 seaters starting in 2008. In the short term, CMR is being "fattened" for the sale. With freshly ratified contract concessions for growth LOA, a contract extension and new 70 seaters on order, CMR will look much more attractive when it is ultimately spun off.

Fred hit a home run when he brought that E-170 to CVG. It didn't take long after that to get the CMR pilots in line for his concessions for growth scheme.

 

[Bizjet]

That's an interesting point. I wonder when some of the CRJ50s start coming off of lease? That's a question that would concern me. My guess is shortly after 2008.

JMO, but I suspect CMR will get more 70 seaters regardless of the outcome of this vote, but CMR will eventually start parking a large number of 50 seaters starting in 2008. In the short term, CMR is being "fattened" for the sale. With freshly ratified contract concessions for growth LOA, a contract extension and new 70 seaters on order, CMR will look much more attractive when it is ultimately spun off.

Fred hit a home run when he brought that E-170 to CVG. It didn't take long after that to get the CMR pilots in line for his concessions for growth scheme.

I agree. Fred didn't even have to break a sweat or even spend a dime. He just called and said to bring that EMB 170 to CVG and if you have one in carrot orange that may also be helpful. Shouldn't need it but one day. LOL

 

[Nindiri]

Do you understand that there are no minimum fleet guarantees after 2008?

Won't Comair be in negotiations and status quo by that time? Wouldn't that mean no changes, including contract minimum fleet size, until released by the mediator?

 

[chperplt]

Won't Comair be in negotiations and status quo by that time? Wouldn't that mean no changes, including contract minimum fleet size, until released by the mediator?

This point was brought up during the road shows..

 

[FDJ2]

Won't Comair be in negotiations and status quo by that time? Wouldn't that mean no changes, including contract minimum fleet size, until released by the mediator?

It would not be hard to envision the scenario where CMR would not be in violation of the status quo if it chooses to reduce the contract minimum fleet size in 2008, since apparently, according to the LOA, CMR has a right to do just that.

IOW, since there appears to be no contractual minimum fleet size in 2008, the company would not be acting outside of the status quo of your contract if it were to execute its option to reduce your fleet size at that time.

 

[Nindiri]

I haven't read the LOA (not Comair), but I was under the impression that the permitted reduction was small and only for a specific period of time. If the LOA doesn't contain language to that effect, I could definitely see the problem.

 

[standaman]

Three excerpts from the LOA may help on this question.


The Company aircraft fleet will not total no less than 199 by March 31, 2008. (At least 52 70 seaters and 147 50 seaters).

The Company aircraft fleet will not total no less than 199 until Dec 31, 2008.

From March 31, 2008 through December 31, 2008 the aircraft fleet may be reduced to no less than 193 aircraft for a period of no more than 6 months (52 of the fleet must be 70 seaters). For the duration of such temporary fleet reduction, if any, no pilot shall be downgraded in status.

 

[Bizjet]

Three excerpts from the LOA may help on this question.


The Company aircraft fleet will not total no less than 199 by March 31, 2008. (At least 52 70 seaters and 147 50 seaters).

The Company aircraft fleet will not total no less than 199 until Dec 31, 2008.

From March 31, 2008 through December 31, 2008 the aircraft fleet may be reduced to no less than 193 aircraft for a period of no more than 6 months (52 of the fleet must be 70 seaters). For the duration of such temporary fleet reduction, if any, no pilot shall be downgraded in status.

You made it easy to understand. After December 31, 2008 they can turn in all your aircraft on their own schedule based on the LOA unless there are limits in the PWA.

 

[JI Gone OH]

You made it easy to understand. After December 31, 2008 they can turn in all your aircraft on their own schedule based on the LOA unless there are limits in the PWA.

What's currently in place to stop them from doing that prior to December 31, 2008?

 

[Bizjet]

And what's in place to stop them from doing that prior to Dec. 31 2008 without the L.O.A.?

Why not just give back half of everything in your contract and see if they will give you a minimum fleet size for six years. No that won't work. Fly for free until your most junior pilot retires.

 

[FDJ2]

You made it easy to understand. After December 31, 2008 they can turn in all your aircraft on their own schedule based on the LOA unless there are limits in the PWA.

Yep. Unless there are protections that extend beyond 12-31-08, CMR can reduce its minimum fleet size at will. Going forward, there really isn't much of a market for the high cost CRJ50, which makes up the bulk of the CMR fleet, maybe a little bit more of a market for the CRJ70 and even more for the E-170. I wouldn't be surprised ot see CMR get its fair share of CRJ70 orders and maybe just maybe some E170s as DAL sets up CMR for sale. I suspect that after 12-31-08 CMR will start shedding itself of the high cost 50 seaters as their leases end.

 

[chperplt]

I suspect that after 12-31-05 CMR will start shedding itself of the high cost 50 seaters as their leases end.

Leases don't end after 12-31-05, nor will the LOA allow those aircraft to go away after 12-31-05.

 

[surplus1]

Yep. Unless there are protections that extend beyond 12-31-08, CMR can reduce its minimum fleet size at will. Going forward, there really isn't much of a market for the high cost CRJ50, which makes up the bulk of the CMR fleet, maybe a little bit more of a market for the CRJ70 and even more for the E-170. I wouldn't be surprised ot see CMR get its fair share of CRJ70 orders and maybe just maybe some E170s as DAL sets up CMR for sale. I suspect that after 12-31-05 CMR will start shedding itself of the high cost 50 seaters as their leases end.

You are not wrong FDJ2, but you do overlook something. There is nothing in the current PWA that prevents Delta from reducing the size of Comair's fleet at any time. They can transfer all or any part of the CR7's to another "connection" carrier tomorrow, if they see fit. They can sell any or all of the CR2's at any time they choose. There is nothing we can do to prevent it. As it stands today, Comair owns no aircraft. As it stands today, Delta decides what airplanes it will buy, if any. Delta also decides where it will allocate those aircraft, at any point in time. You've told us many times that Comair has no money and Delta pays for everything. I'm sure you haven't changed your mind and there is no reason for you to do so. The game of which walnut shell hides the pea, is alive and well.

Tell me, in what Section of the Delta PWA is the company prevented from downsizing the current Delta fleet? Is it possible per the Delta PWA for the company to unload or park all of the DC9's or the 737's? What in the Delta PWA prevented the company from parking your MD-11's, parking your 727's or refusing to take delivery of additional 777's. Could the company dump the 767-200's and keep only the 300/400 series?

I'm not being critical of your PWA, I just want you to point out the applicable Section to me since I seem to have missed it.

When the Delta pilots agreed to LOA46, did Delta guarantee that it would not declare bankruptcy at some time in the future? I wonder if the Delta pilots had refused concessions do you believe DAL would have declared BK? If it did declare BK, do you believe that ASA and CMR would also have been declared bankrupt or exempted?

I also wonder what "concessions" Delta, ASA and CMR would have had to take in a BK scenario. Do you think your concessions would have been bigger or smaller? Would we have retained our current contracts?

If Delta was not losing a ton of money, do you think it would be asking CMR for concessions?

Finally, in the event of and IPO that spins off Comair, do you think that would be a good thing for CMR or a bad thing for CMR? Please explain.

Do you believe that a spin off of CMR would be good for Delta or bad for Delta?

Sorry, I have so many questions.......

 

[Nindiri]

If Comair plans to start shedding 50 seaters and not maintain the fleet size, why would they be wanting to add 10 more this year?