Colgan 3407 Down in Buffalo

[AceCrackshot]

Me, too. It fits a tailplane icing stall profile event. I've played in the Q400 Sim in Downsview, Ontario when it was being certified (1998...yeah, I'm old) but never in-depth stuff.

Tailplane icing profile is final approach in icing, input landing flaps, and wooop!...upset happens. Tailplane stall recovery is opposite of a conventional wing stall recovery if memory serves me (it's tougher each year). T-Tail may be different then conventional stab. I dunno...

Roselawn was a holding in icing conditions event. Icing caused airflow blockage to the ailerons. The autopilot compensated until in couldn't. Captain took control of the airplane with loaded yoke pressure and couldn't recover from the hard over. The outworkings of that crash spawned all kinds of bulletins and SOP/POH revisions. The CVR was scary. They tried to hard fly out of it all the way to the ground.

I used to wait till I got an half inch of ice built up on the Dash to blow the boots....and for fun I'd do a segment at a time and watch the airspeed recover. When they said to turn it on and leave it on, alot of us old timers were afraid of ice bridging on the boots. But, deHavilland was right; they kept it relatively clean.

T8

Unlike the NTSB, I firmly believe that bridging exists, but that the DHC8 series are pretty resistant to it. Is this personal opinion based only on personal experience? Absolutely. However, in the King Air 200/B1900 I've experienced ice bridging, where in the DHC8s, I never did.

I don't know if its the velocity of the inflation of the boot, the manner of ice accumulation on different leading edges, or what. Perhaps its all an artifact of my imagination.

 

[Prog 2/2]

He also said the engines sounded extremely odd. Have a prop that has gone into beta would attribute to all the symptoms.

Happened to a Q400 in Sweden.

http://www.havkom.se/virtupload/news/rl2007_12e.pdf

 

[quinnlake]

CNN just said that the conditions were perfect for carb ice, so that may have been the problem. Great reporting.

 

[nimtz]

I swear CNN just reported that "Carburetor ice can occur on fuel injected engines and could have been a serious problem".

Wow.

My thoughts go out to the families of the crew, the jumpseater and the passengers.

It's that f*cking meteorologist. I wish this so called 'aviation expert' would at least correct the morons to explain that turbine aircraft don't have freaking carburetors.

 

[Fly91]

kcuf you jerkoff!!! I have plenty of respect for all families and crew on board. Nothing wrong with trying to understand what happened!!!

I agree, whats with all the cheesedicks that think someone doesn't care about the people that were lost/injured in an air crash....if you try to figure out what happened too soon? The NTSB, FAA ans aircraft manufacturers don't wait for 1 second, are they disrespectful scumbags, NO. Thats how we all could possibly learn something so it doesn't happen again.

But yeah, icing in those conditions is a very likely culprit. Could have lost a wing too, who knows.

(How does saying that disrespect anyone??? It doesn't.)

 

[xshuttlefa]

The irritating thing about watching the news coverage early in a tragedy like this is the wrong impression it gives those who know nothing about aviation. All the speculation and "details" that may or may not be true. Or bringing up details that have no bearing on the situation. Like the SAS problems with Q400 gear or any similarities to that of Cactus 1549.

I know the media is just trying to do their job and that our 25 hour news cycle means they have to report before the airplane hits the ground. But could they wait until some facts are ironed out before spewing nonsense all over the air? CNN is irritating, FOX is downright annoying, since there are 5 people spewing out "facts". And these facts are what the non-aviation public takes away with them. CNN kept reiterating the fact that this plane was NOT run by CO, but by Colgan.


CNN brought up in the past hour an incident with icing in a Dash 8 100 over St. Johns Newfoundland from the CTSB. Sounds close to what is believed to have happened in this tragic event, except the St.Johns was an incident, only due to the fact that crew was at 14,000 ft when it happened.

All I know is that I'm glad it wasn't my turn for fate to hunt me down. And Godspeed to all those families involved. I understand that angel wings have quite an anti-ice system and all the lift in the world.

 

[DashCojones]

Sadly, no matter what the investigations outcome, the flying public will take only two words from this accident: "Commuter" and "Turboprop". RIP

 

[Broke in CVG]

My favorite is that ALL the news stations are repeatedly saying "we don't want to speculate, but what do you think may have caused...."

 

[atpcliff]

Hi.

I was talking 2 my kids about this in the car.

It could've been me. I applied at Colgan in Jan?, but haven't heard anything back, so I could've been in the cockpit.

Or, I could've been the jumpseating crewmember, or one of the PAX.

All you can do is pick up the pieces, and keep trying. Life is REALLY crappy some times.

God Bless.

cliff
GRB

 

[Coool Hand Luke]

Thoughts and prayers to the crew, passengers, and their families. Now is not to time to speculate about the causes, but to care for the injured and the relatives of the dead. There will be plenty of time to debate the cause and issues with Colgan after the NTSB does its work.

At least allow these people to be mourned and laid to rest before ripping their reputations to shreds.

Actually, if I were a pilot flying the Q I'd be very interested in finding out what happend as soon a possible too, so as to not make the same mistake. Wouldn't you want to? Aksing people not to speculate, well that's been taking place with pilots long before any of us were born. Earnie Gann talks about it all the time in "Fate is the Hunter". It's just the way it is.

 

[joe_pilot]

CNN is AGAIN talking about carburetor ice in fuel injectors!

WTF?!?

Ok, ok. I'm gonna switch to decaf...

 

[Stifler's Mom]

Specualtion or not...there will be many of our friends and coworkers flying this very same A/C and similar versions in similar conditions.

Even if our theories are proven wrong in this case, there is nothing wrong with planting seeds into the back of our collective minds to keep us safe in the future.

God Bless all involved and affected by this.

 

[PERSON]

I am on my *pilot* husbands login, but I would just like to say right now, as a pilot wife, my heart goes out to the wives/husbands of the crew. It has always been a fear, and hopefully never a reality of mine to not have my husband come home from a trip. Please, please men and women, fly carefully today and always. May God be with the families of all on board, and with all of you, as each of you fly everyday.

 

[CopilotDoug]

CNN is AGAIN talking about carburetor ice...

Two networks discussing Carb Ice? Seems to be a common denominator. Case closed, if you ask me.

 

[Stifler's Mom]

I am on my *pilot* husbands login, but I would just like to say right now, as a pilot wife, my heart goes out to the wives/husbands of the crew. It has always been a fear, and hopefully never a reality of mine to not have my husband come home from a trip. Please, please men and women, fly carefully today and always. May God be with the families of all on board, and with all of you, as each of you fly everyday.

Thank you PERSON's wife...I am in the middle of a trip and spent some time on the phone this morning with my wife as well. She gets very upset when she hears of these events, as they obviously hit very close to home for those of us in aviation.

 

[cale42]

I've had to stop watching CNN.. I can't take it anymore.. less than 1 hour before they drove me insane.

 

[atrdriver]

My thoughts and prayers are with the families of those involved.

 

[Ineedabrew]

Very sad

A very crappy way to start a 3 day trip.

I can not imagine the pain that family members are feeling now. Very sad

God bless to you all

Alright now I have to clear my head and pack the Tuna Salad lunch kits for the trip.

Take Care all

 

[Motive Flow]

You have to set the bar pretty low when watching news coverage after an accident (or just don't watch).

Two gems I saw and heard on Fox News:

1.) The A/C was carrying 5000 gallons of fuel.
2.) They showed a picture of a Saab 340 (this was about 11 hours after the accident). At least it had the correct paint scheme!

My two extremely speculative theories (both already brought up):

1.) Tail plane icing.
2.) Beta in-flight.

 

[MCDU]

- Captain Marvin Renslow joined Colgan on September 9, 2005. Captain Renslow had flown 3,379 hours with Colgan Air.
- First Officer Rebecca Shaw joined Colgan on January 16, 2008. Ms. Shaw had flown 2,244 hours with Colgan Air.


Most junior Q400 capt hired: Sept 2005

It appears that he flew the Saab at Colgan first then upgraded to the Dash 8 on 11/18/2008.

These times have to be tt. She joined one year ago and flew 2244hrs?
Very, very sad for everyone involved.

M

 

[Richard Gozinya]

Very sad day for the Buffalo community. Just last week they laid to rest 4 aviators from the 6/6 Cavalry at Fr. Drum who parished in Iraq. My thoughts and prayers go out to the victims and their families.

 

[SLUF4]

I'd agree that a tail icing/stall seems like a good theory at this point, but of course it could be anything. Flight control failure? I was reading an article the other day that NTSB wants us to now cycle the boots immediately instead of waiting for ice to build up. Not sure what the dash POH says about this. Does the Dash have an automatic cycle feature? My prayers are with them.

 

[captboy2001]

just want to say how sorry i am to here about this flight....i pray for all on board and the colgan crews and families....i was with colgan for 7yrs and had a great time and experience......

 

[cale42]

I'd agree that a tail icing/stall seems like a good theory at this point, but of course it could be anything. Flight control failure? I was reading an article the other day that NTSB wants us to now cycle the boots immediately instead of waiting for ice to build up. Not sure what the dash POH says about this. Does the Dash have an automatic cycle feature? My prayers are with them.

Dash has an auto cycle.. fast and slow, both are 36 seconds inflation cycles(6 sets of boots x 6 seconds) followed by either 24 seconds off or 144 seconds off depending on the speed setting. Boots on at first sign of ice detection is manufacturer rec.

cale

 

[BoDEAN]

ATC Tape if anyone is interested. Happens around the 17 min mark.

28 min mark, Delta asks if the controller found Colgan. He is informed that Q400 went down over Clump.

http://archive-server.liveatc.net/kbuf/KBUF-Feb-13-2009-0300Z.mp3

Edit: Looks like the link has already been posted. Sorry.

 

[captboy2001]

flew with marvin in IAH....Great guy and pilot...........

 

[Northern Lights]

What a horrible way to start the day -- I felt sick when I first heard of it!

I wish that the talking heads on the news would just shut up already!

Geraldo was on a couple of hours ago praising Sulley and wondering how the crews experience level affected this crash.

After seeing the Saab picture and hearing the comment about 5000 gallons of fuel, I've decided to turn it off for a while.

 

[Kingzrt]

Just now CNN says the FAA requires we disengage the autopilot every 5 minutes in icing. I love when I learn new regs via the news...

Can't believe we got to page 10 before someone mentioned fatigue.. I'm guessing we are going to learn there was a nice 10+ hour high leg day, as zasca said.. awareness goes to hell..

Crew was on duty at 13:30 flew 2 legs prior to ewr to buf.This gives crew about 9 hrs on duty

 

[joe_pilot]

On CNN, a Resident and professional photographer who lives in the area where 3407 went down says everyone in the area "always knew" it was "just a matter of time" before there was a crash. He describes his fears: "When darkness appears, the planes have to fly lower and lower, not the noise, but the lights".

Huh?

Gotta turn off the TV

 

[WSurf]

flew with marvin in IAH....Great guy and pilot...........

Sorry for the loss Captboy.