Anderson to align capacity with demand

[General Lee]

GL,

I know it seems counter intuitive, but you might be bumped less. Now that there is talk of a substantial MD bid on the south side, perhaps the idea of spreading the pain out through the system instead of focused on each side may result in less disruption.

I understand the argument on displacements vs. awards, however if an early combined bid also included some base realignment awards we might do a whole lot less musical chairs. Don't forget there are no freezes on any displacements so if we absorb the 742 displacements it's just that many more north pilots open to bid on any future positions. But then again there are so many senior north pilots on NB equipment as it is, they'll probably take any all the WB slots as soon as there are awards any ways.

Between the PRIP which is primarily of interest to senior north pilots, and the implementation of BP5 I think the actual number of displacements will be relatively minor which would negate the arguement for an early bid.

Personally I think you guys have more to worry about right now than we do.

Again, we are adding most of the flights back in March that we are cutting in the Fall. Doing anything pre-SOC for the company is a concession, and we won't get anything for it. Ed and Richard may get bigger bonuses, though. If they are forced to train a lot of people and that is expensive, maybe they will change their minds and do something productive, like routing trips through hubs instead of displacing people. That may be cheaper. We can suggest it, though. No concessions for NOTHING.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Sinca3]

General, even with the 747-200 pull down the DALS side is far more overstaffed than the DALN side. The staffing increase coming to the North side will help absorb alot of the freighter pull down. displacements are happening and coming from both sides regardless as they realign everything.

I don't have the numbers but I'm willing to bet you that DAL-N is or will be just as or more overstaffed then DAL-S. 747-200 pilots and all of your instructor pilots are looking for equipment to fly!
I'd venture to guess that's roughly 450 pilots.....

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

I don't have the numbers but I'm willing to bet you that DAL-N is or will be just as or more overstaffed then DAL-S. 747-200 pilots and all of your instructor pilots are looking for equipment to fly!
I'd venture to guess that's roughly 450 pilots.....

They have to convert to our workrules, though. That will mitigate at least a certain amount of those guys.

 

[N2264J]

Again, we are adding most of the flights back in March that we are cutting in the Fall.

Management can't see beyond the end of the next quarter let alone what they're going to do a year from now.

Whoever you and acl65pilot are talking to in bid production have no idea which way the economy is going to break.

 

[Redmeat]

Management can't see beyond the end of the next quarter let alone what they're going to do a year from now.

Whoever you and acl65pilot are talking to in bid production have no idea which way the economy is going to break.

Ding Ding Ding...We have a winner folks!

Unfortunately not all of us have access to that DAL-S Kool-Aid they are serving up down there.

Evidently that is some strong stuff!

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Management can't see beyond the end of the next quarter let alone what they're going to do a year from now.

Whoever you and acl65pilot are talking to in bid production have no idea which way the economy is going to break.

I think that is the point of my pessimisim. I am a half full guy, but I am not bullish on any of this.

They have a plan for next year and it is showing +450 for staffing already for Spring 2010. That is not good at all.

I do not see us keeping our planned capacity for summer 2010 anywhere near where the plan is. Why? Because you cannot add that many seats and charge much for them. We need to get pricing power back before we even talk about adding seats.

The guys making the plan have clearly stated that long term forecasting is not worth much these days. Why? People are not buying tickets three to six months in advance. More like a week to two. Three tops. It means that all of these computer models that we have do not tell us jack. It is a best guess, I assure you. I am not trying to diminish that point.

DAL wants to keep staffing positioned to move when the economy turns. Many people think late 2010 at the earliest. I personally think by what I am seeing it might be some time in mid to late 2011 before we really see any justifiable movement in the GDP and or unemployment rate.

Yes, I am pessimistic. Plan accordingly. (Planes are full but that does not mean jack. We just readjusted our forecast to 0-2% margin before one time items. To me that means 200 million plus in losses this quarter!)

 

[Heavy Set]

Ding Ding Ding...We have a winner folks!

Unfortunately not all of us have access to that DAL-S Kool-Aid they are serving up down there.

Evidently that is some strong stuff!

The article stating the discontinued flights also had reinstatement days. A lot of them were March 27th, FWIW.

 

[nwaredtail]

I don't have the numbers but I'm willing to bet you that DAL-N is or will be just as or more overstaffed then DAL-S. 747-200 pilots and all of your instructor pilots are looking for equipment to fly!
I'd venture to guess that's roughly 450 pilots.....

Not that it matters, from "cq" last week, 200 on the north side, 800-1000 on the south side, no furloughs, too much $$$$..

Of course written in Jello

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Not that it matters, from "cq" last week, 200 on the north side, 800-1000 on the south side, no furloughs, too much $$$$..

Of course written in Jello

That is what they say. I just cannot believe that when we are 1200+ pilots fat, we are not going to adjust staffing!
What this before or after Thursday's announcement??????

<====looking for a very fat category to take the winter off and lay on the beach!

 

[Voice Of Reason]

That is what they say. I just cannot believe that when we are 1200+ pilots fat, we are not going to adjust staffing!
What this before or after Thursday's announcement??????

<====looking for a very fat category to take the winter off and lay on the beach!

Well, maybe if you keep putting it out there and posting it enough 24/7 as you have been dedicated to doing, they'll determine that the pilots are already resigned to that happening and won't put up a fight.

Perhaps your efforts would be better spent working for your union to prevent this, rather than trying to manipulate public perception and instill Fear, Uncertainty, & Doubt on public message boards ala Ford & Harrison board regulars. (They're the only ones with the time to post all day and all night every day to accomplish this goal...NO line pilot currently employed ANYWHERE in June ALREADY has a schedule THAT clear)

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Well, maybe if you keep putting it out there and posting it enough 24/7 as you have been dedicated to doing, they'll determine that the pilots are already resigned to that happening and won't put up a fight.

Perhaps your efforts would be better spent working for your union to prevent this, rather than trying to manipulate public perception and instill Fear, Uncertainty, & Doubt on public message boards ala Ford & Harrison board regulars. (They're the only ones with the time to post all day and all night every day to accomplish this goal...NO line pilot currently employed ANYWHERE in June ALREADY has a schedule THAT clear)

I will have to say, your a nut.

I have a great schedule this month. No complaints here. Also, the union is working on this and many other issues.
Carry on.....

 

[slinky]

I will have to say, your a nut.

I have a great schedule this month. No complaints here. Also, the union is working on this and many other issues.
Carry on.....

This message is hidden because Voice Of Reason is on your ignore list.

Dude this is a great feature.

Slinky

 

[NuGuy]

Heyas,

It's not what DALPA wants or doesn't want, or what they'll accept or won't accept on behalf of the south side. The company is holding the trump card. All they have to do is delay the closing of ANC till one day after SOC, and they get what they want.

LM can sit in the corner have have a hissy fit for all he wants, but the company calls the final shot here. In this environment, if RA decides that it's cheaper to do it this way, you can better believe the hammer will come down.

I don't know who's feeding the BS trough in the ATL crew room, but:

Moving UP SOC to before ANC closing IS on the table (or delaying closing until after)

Furlouging from each side IS on the table.

A PRE-SOC AE/VD/MD IS on the table.

Mama DAL is bleeding real money. You can bet if RA makes the case, LM will bite, and if not, RA will force the issue.

It's the NWA way....DALPA can't stop this any more than they could stop the merger.

Nu

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Heyas,

It's not what DALPA wants or doesn't want, or what they'll accept or won't accept on behalf of the south side. The company is holding the trump card. All they have to do is delay the closing of ANC till one day after SOC, and they get what they want.

LM can sit in the corner have have a hissy fit for all he wants, but the company calls the final shot here. In this environment, if RA decides that it's cheaper to do it this way, you can better believe the hammer will come down.

I don't know who's feeding the BS trough in the ATL crew room, but:

Moving UP SOC to before ANC closing IS on the table (or delaying closing until after)

Furlouging from each side IS on the table.

A PRE-SOC AE/VD/MD IS on the table.

Mama DAL is bleeding real money. You can bet if RA makes the case, LM will bite, and if not, RA will force the issue.

It's the NWA way....DALPA can't stop this any more than they could stop the merger.

Nu

I agree Nu. Problem is that they would have to get their six in gear to the the 742 on the cert. To that ends they can threaten DALPA that they will delay SOC and furlough from our side.
IMHO, they are really pushing for a Oct/Nov SOC. I know the joint AE is on the table, and yes furloughs are on the table.

IMHO after July 10th is going to be very interesting.

I wasn't full of crud when I made this statement last Thursday, and I am not now. The 5% international and 4% domestic is a major game changer.

 

[Redmeat]

The article stating the discontinued flights also had reinstatement days. A lot of them were March 27th, FWIW.

Hehe...

And I use to tell bad dates..."I'll call you...I promise"...

 

[Cobra17]

At least DAL is still forecasting a profit for the year.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Ole Reliable ACL info

I think that is the point of my pessimisim. I am a half full guy, but I am not bullish on any of this.

They have a plan for next year and it is showing +450 for staffing already for Spring 2010. That is not good at all.

I do not see us keeping our planned capacity for summer 2010 anywhere near where the plan is. Why? Because you cannot add that many seats and charge much for them. We need to get pricing power back before we even talk about adding seats.

The guys making the plan have clearly stated that long term forecasting is not worth much these days. Why? People are not buying tickets three to six months in advance. More like a week to two. Three tops. It means that all of these computer models that we have do not tell us jack. It is a best guess, I assure you. I am not trying to diminish that point.

DAL wants to keep staffing positioned to move when the economy turns. Many people think late 2010 at the earliest. I personally think by what I am seeing it might be some time in mid to late 2011 before we really see any justifiable movement in the GDP and or unemployment rate.

Yes, I am pessimistic. Plan accordingly. (Planes are full but that does not mean jack. We just readjusted our forecast to 0-2% margin before one time items. To me that means 200 million plus in losses this quarter!)

...But what about the baby boom, which according to your schedule, should be right about SOC/furlough?

03-11-2009, 06:05 AM #85 (permalink) acl65pilot
Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: Out by the grill cooking some burgers, and trying to read the Tea Leaves!
Posts: 3,499



"Delta Capacity Cuts" thread ALPC
" This pull down will not result in furloughs. The last displacements planned for this if we decided not to do it, we would have had a reinstatement.
DAL is about 150~ or so pilot fat going in to the summer
Post SOC the joint company will be about 160~ or so short.
Needless to say go get your wives pregnant. "

 

[ACL65PILOT]

...But what about the baby boom, which according to your schedule, should be right about SOC/furlough?

03-11-2009, 06:05 AM #85 (permalink) acl65pilot
Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Jun 2006
Position: Out by the grill cooking some burgers, and trying to read the Tea Leaves!
Posts: 3,499



"Delta Capacity Cuts" thread ALPC
" This pull down will not result in furloughs. The last displacements planned for this if we decided not to do it, we would have had a reinstatement.
DAL is about 150~ or so pilot fat going in to the summer
Post SOC the joint company will be about 160~ or so short.
Needless to say go get your wives pregnant. "

Have you heard of sarcasm.(Also it was directed at one individual who had a very pregnant wife. He got it)
And the quote that you have dug up was from the last round of cuts, not this one. Also go pull the one that states that if there was another round of capacity pull downs (like the one announced last Thursday) that I could see furloughs.

But, once again thanks for playing!

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Everyone who pulls it up knows exactly the intent during your earlier blue kool-aid period...one guy with "wives"...wow.
How many times have you backtracked on about everything you post both places. and still expect people to take you seriously?

Seriously though...is your union so "fat" on volunteers that they don't need someone that could dedicate morning, noon, night, and overnight to the pilot's cause? ...Or is that not your REAL cause?

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Everyone who pulls it up knows exactly the intent during your earlier blue kool-aid period...one guy with "wives"...wow.
How many times have you backtracked on about everything you post both places. and still expect people to take you seriously?

Seriously though...is your union so "fat" on volunteers that they don't need someone that could dedicate morning, noon, night, and overnight to the pilot's cause? ...Or is that not your REAL cause?

As stated before. It is what is being stated at the time. Period nothing more than that.

Who says I do not volunteer? I bet the answer would surprise you.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

As stated before. It is what is being stated at the time. Period nothing more than that.

Who says I do not volunteer? I bet the answer would surprise you.

I'll bet it wouldn't...I'd bet you hold NO union position or ACTIVELY, regularly serve...
I also bet if anyone posts anything remotely related to your airline at 4am you'll answer right then

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I'll bet it wouldn't...I'd bet you hold NO union position or ACTIVELY, regularly serve...
I also bet if anyone posts anything remotely related to your airline at 4am you'll answer right then

I did not say I was in a non-flying position. You are now qualifying your remarks.
I just responded to the fact that you accuse me of being something I am not.
Fact is that I may run for active position.
Point is that you are wrong on where my loyalties are. I serve our pilots in a bigger capacity than 90% of any group does.

Carry on with your rant.

 

[hockeypilot44]

I don't know of a merger that didn't have furloughs soon after other than a couple regionals. Why would this one be any different? We should have seen furloughs coming last year when the merger was announced.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I don't know of a merger that didn't have furloughs soon after other than a couple regionals. Why would this one be any different? We should have seen furloughs coming last year when the merger was announced.

Thank God we had to wait for government approval. We would have been fine if this economy would not have gone Polar. I fear this last round will break the bank. If it was not for this we would have bucked the trend.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Thank God we had to wait for government approval. We would have been fine if this economy would not have gone Polar. I fear this last round will break the bank. If it was not for this we would have bucked the trend.

I feel sorry for your union...someone who feels (keeps posting) furloughs can't be avoided running for office...imagine that.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I feel sorry for your union...someone who feels (keeps posting) furloughs can't be avoided running for office...imagine that.

Really. We may mitigate them but I am sure it is not a surprise to anyone!
Like I said carry on.

 

[General Lee]

Everyone who pulls it up knows exactly the intent during your earlier blue kool-aid period...one guy with "wives"...wow.
How many times have you backtracked on about everything you post both places. and still expect people to take you seriously?

Seriously though...is your union so "fat" on volunteers that they don't need someone that could dedicate morning, noon, night, and overnight to the pilot's cause? ...Or is that not your REAL cause?

Dude, how is your boyfriend? (not that there is anything wrong with that) You continually try to piece things together to try to prove your points, which are worthless. Oh yeah, you forgot to add the part about Cambell and his firm which are out to get us...


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I feel sorry for your union...someone who feels (keeps posting) furloughs can't be avoided running for office...imagine that.

There you go again. As of right now, no furloughs are scheduled. A lot of this depends on other factors, like how many people early out retire, where gas goes, where the economy goes, etc. If they do furlough, they will have to flush Compass of all of their Captains, (and FOs maybe) at great expense to the company. Also, they would have to remove 6 seats from a lot of 76 seat RJs. And, even though Fall and Winter may be slower, the Spring and Summer usually are NOT. So, they would need people back for those busy times. Hey, I gotta go--Mike Cambell is calling me to say hi.....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

The article stating the discontinued flights also had reinstatement days. A lot of them were March 27th, FWIW.

Some people just don't know how to read.....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Heyas,

It's not what DALPA wants or doesn't want, or what they'll accept or won't accept on behalf of the south side. The company is holding the trump card. All they have to do is delay the closing of ANC till one day after SOC, and they get what they want.

LM can sit in the corner have have a hissy fit for all he wants, but the company calls the final shot here. In this environment, if RA decides that it's cheaper to do it this way, you can better believe the hammer will come down.

I don't know who's feeding the BS trough in the ATL crew room, but:

Moving UP SOC to before ANC closing IS on the table (or delaying closing until after)

Furlouging from each side IS on the table.

A PRE-SOC AE/VD/MD IS on the table.

Mama DAL is bleeding real money. You can bet if RA makes the case, LM will bite, and if not, RA will force the issue.

It's the NWA way....DALPA can't stop this any more than they could stop the merger.

Nu

Wrong. They will park the planes prior to SOC so they don't have to do manuals etc for the 742 fleet. Each fleet has to have a package for the FAA to sign off on,($$$$$) and Delta doesn't want to expense that. And, according to our SLI agreement, anything parked prior to SOC affects that side.

And, a pre-SOC AE is NOT on the table. The Dalpa reps in the ATL lounge said they would never agree to that, since it is a concession. Do you think our LEC and MEC members from the South want to be bumped down any sooner than they have to? Sorry, but we out number you still. Nobody on our side of the fence wants to be bumped earlier.

Is Mamma DAL bleeding money? Not as bad as the others, and with our cash position and lack of pensions etc, we have the advantage. Remember all of those synergies Ed Bastain told you about? We are still getting them, and even if they are not as profitable now, they are helping us a lot compared to other companies. Real savings is there.


Bye Bye--General Lee